Here are today’s daily SP Streamer rankings.
Every day of the 2023 baseball season, I’ll be looking at today and tomorrow’s slate of scheduled starting pitchers and ranking their matchups for your fantasy baseball streams.
There’s a lot that goes into this and you can hang out with me on Playback.tv/pitcherlist to talk about the specific ranks as I make them every weekday morning from 10am – 12pm ET. If you have questions about these ranks, please ask during the morning Playback AMA. Those are my office hours as I generally don’t answer comments on the site.
There are four tiers to these rankings with 12-teamers in mind:
Auto-Start – Just do it. Don’t overthink this, start the man. This includes “if I have them rostered, I’m starting them” pitchers.
Probably Start – I’m likely starting these arms, though I recognize there is more risk than we’d like there to be. Either it’s a tough matchup for a good-not-elite pitcher or a weak lineup for a volatile arm. These pitchers have a 50% or greater chance of performing well in my view.
Questionable Start – Think of this tier as “I don’t want to start these pitchers in a vacuum, but you could do worse.” Streamers found in this tier are not pitchers I’m targeting and are only if you are in dire need of one. To play it safe with streaming, just start the Probably Start streamers.
Do Not Start – The reward is not worth the risk. Don’t do it. Seriously, these pitchers have a very slim chance of success or sometimes none at all.
Obviously, there will be circumstances where pitchers should move between teams for your situation specifically and these new tiers should act as a little more help than the straight table from last year.
Please keep in mind that streaming is far from a perfect play. In fact, if they work out over half the time, I’d consider it a success. These matchup rankings & streamer picks are going to be wildly different than the actual results throughout the year, so please, have sympathy before the scathing comments and tweets. I’m only trying to help!
Make sure to read the notes if you’re wondering why I’m favoring certain pitchers over others – I won’t get to everyone and hopefully I answer what questions you will have.
There is a second table for tomorrow’s starting pitcher matchups as well, helping everyone get a jump on their nightly pickups. Please note that these matchups are subject to change, though, and there will be times when I have the incorrect pitcher going. I thank you for your future understanding.
Finally, there are my streaming picks of the day, and please keep in mind that I am forced to pick a streamer every day. Those highlighted in Green are that day’s streaming pick in the second tier and I’d roll with them everywhere. Those in Yellow are in the third tier and should be okay if you’re searching for something on a given day, but I don’t recommend streaming unless you’re in need. Finally, those are Red are those I really don’t want to start (they are labeled as “Do Not Start”, after all) but have no other choice. Don’t stream these guys until you are truly desperate. A streaming pick is defined as “rostered in 20% or fewer leagues,” which really emphasizes the point that I’d be happy if over 50% of these worked. I could do the whole sub 30/40% rostered, but there’s no fun in that. You can use the rankings to realize who would be those picks, instead.
(Opener) – Outlines that a pitcher is being opened for that day & the pitcher listed will follow the opener.
As I do my rankings, I thought it would be helpful to showcase a table of how we’re ranking offenses (in Alphabetical order):
I’m sure it’ll change through the year + there are differences to be made about teams vs. LHP or RHP, but it works as a general table that y’all should keep in mind.
Alright, let’s get to it.
This year, with our new daily fantasy baseball projections powered by PLV, I’ll be competing against PL Bot to pick the best streaming option each day.
To get access to PL Bot’s picks each day, sign up for PL Pro here.
The streaming record is determined by “Was this a productive game for 12-teamers if I started them?” Roughly a PQS with a Win and a strikeout per inning with a sub 1.20 WHIP, with a minimum of 5 IP. Close calls are decided by Playback chat.
Nick’s 2023 Streamer Record: 76-62
My pick yesterday: Allan Winans vs. NYM
PL Bot’s 2023 Streamer Record: 72-66
PL Bot’s Pick yesterday: Paul Blackburn vs. KCR
Want PL Bot’s pick today? Sign Up for PL Pro here.
With the new formatting for the notes, I’ve made the streaming pick of the day Underlined and Italicized.
Today’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
Auto-Starts
Blake Snell vs. MIA – Aces gonna ace.
Justin Verlander vs. BOS – He’s had a few stumbles but is generally stable against a weak Red Sox team.
George Kirby @ CHW – Arguably should be above the White Sox but that start against the Royals was so not what we wanted.
Bobby Miller @ CLE – Miller is a steady arm pitching for a winning club. While I’m not expecting growth with each outing, I also bake in a bit of upside that we haven’t quite seen realized yet, ready to burst with each time he pitches. That would come via his slider and curve getting into grooves for high CSW rates.
Yusei Kikuchi @ BAL – Kikuchi has been such a consistent member of your rotations that you’re not considering a bench for a moment.
Zac Gallen vs. TEX – He’s an ace and yet he gets the worst matchup of the lot by far, fresh off a tough outing.
Probably Starts
UPDATE: Lucas Giolito vs. CIN – He hasn’t been pitching nearly as poorly as the results have been. It’s a solid matchup and Giolito spouted 95 mph against the Rangers.
Andrew Abbott @ LAA – Abbott isn’t punching out everyone and their grandmothers anymore (sorry for that image), sadly. Still, the Angels are generally a solid team to stream against these days.
Bailey Ober @ MIL – Ober is still locating his four-seamer phenomenally and shouldn’t be punished for his mistakes as much as we’ve seen lately.
Grayson Rodriguez vs. TOR – It’s hard to make out how good the Jays offense actually is, while Grayson has been electrifying since returning to the majors.
Zack Littell vs. COL – Here’s another solid Win chance for Littell against Rockie Road. Can the Rays offense please come through this time?
Jon Gray @ ARI – I dig Gray’s four-seamer over his last two starts and Arizona isn’t enough to scare me off.
UPDATE: Graham Ashcraft @ LAA – I’m weirded out by the new slider that looks more like a cutter to pair with his…cutter, but the results have been there and I think we’re at the point of treating him like a Vargas Rule – It’s a 2.17 ERA, 10.9 WHIP across his last nine starts and 58 innings, if you can believe it.
Bryce Elder vs. NYM – The Mets aren’t scary and Elder has a great Win chance as he does his sinker/slider thing.
Questionable Starts
Reid Detmers vs. CIN – Detmers took down the Rangers, but his command was off. The ball landed in good spots, but it often wasn’t intentional and I heavily question if he’s turned a corner.
Wade Miley vs. MIN – This is a decently safe stream, though Miley’s limited ceiling means the floor is awfully close to unsalvagable.
Carlos Rodón vs. WSN – It’s a Still ILL as we hope Rodón is sitting 96 mph and tossing at least five frames. I still believe he can pitch like an ace this season, though I understand we all need to see it first.
Jesús Luzardo @ SDP – The Padres crush LHP and Luzardo made a trio of terrible mistake pitches (one heater, one changeup, one slider) to the Astros that could have the same 3 HR results here. That said, if he is able to avoid punishment on his mistakes, the results could fare far better.
Taijuan Walker vs. SFG – His velocity was down to sub-91 mph levels in his last start, leading to a skipped turn of the rotation. He returns with a gift: the San Francisco offense. That combination could be enough.
UPDATE: Bryan Woo @ CLE – Woo is coming off the IL in a Still ILL scenario and if he has his four-seamer cooking, this will be worthwhile.
Mike Clevinger vs. SEA – Clevinger has been hot and it could continue against the Mariners. Thing is, I don’t dig his four-seamer/slider/cutter combo and think it’s more about luck than actual ability. He’s a Cherry Bomb to me, at best.
Johan Oviedo vs. STL – Oviedo has a great slider and poor heater. You know this. That’s the outline of a Cherry Bomb.
Do Not Starts
Kyle Harrison @ PHI – It’s Harrison’s MLB debut, who carries a track record of an overpowering four-seamer and control issues. He’s worth a spec add, though after this start would be Atlanta. Not cool.
Josiah Gray @ NYY – With the horrid morale in the Yankee clubhouse, Josiah could come out on top simply based on the poor lineup in front of him. And yet, that would require Josiah to throw enough competitive strikes and I hate banking on that.
Reese Olson vs. CHC – Olson can do well when his slider is at its peak and enough fastballs find the east-west edges. The ceiling is rare and the Cubs swing a heavy bat, making this a clear dart throw to avoid.
Ty Blach @ TBR – Blach may be the best Rockies pitcher, going against the struggling Rays outside of Coors. Blach and the three DNS options above him are all on the cusp of “hey, if you need a desperate arm”. A Do Not Start for 12-teamers with a low chance of coming through, but demonstrably better than the below options.
Drew Smyly @ DET – It’s a solid matchup, but Smyly isn’t stretched out + he hasn’t had that start in a loooooong time.
Noah Syndergaard vs. LAD – Thor is so not worth your time, yet we’ve seen worse arms survive at least five frames against the Dodgers. It’s awfully infrequent, but possible.
Tanner Houck @ HOU – He’s expected to return from the minors and I’d wait a start before considering adding him to your lineups. Feel free to spec add if you like, but this will likely come with jitters + facing the Astros isn’t what you want.
Angel Zerpa @ OAK – I don’t love his skills, but at least it’s Oakland?
Kyle Muller vs. KCR – Oh hey, he’s back! I hope he’s showing us something new. Probably not.
UPDATE: Hogan Harris vs. KCR – There’s still some confusion but it looks like Hogan is the guy today for the Athletics. He’s had some success in the past as a crafty lefty.
UPDATE: Zack Greinke @ OAK – He’s expected to come off the IL today with Angel Zerpa likely opening.
Adam Wainwright @ PIT – I’m just hoping he gets Win #199. He’s running out of time to get to #200.
Tylor Megill @ ATL – It’s Atlanta and Megill doesn’t have enough in the tank.
Tomorrow’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
Auto-Starts
Kevin Gausman @ BAL – Aces gonna ace.
Shohei Ohtani vs. CIN – He’s starting and if he’s starting, we’re starting him.
Clayton Kershaw @ CLE – He’s TATIAGA and the slider should be back to normal soon. He may be slightly limited, though.
Corbin Burnes vs. MIN – Burnes’ cutter returned to form last night en route to a Golden Goal. It’s just one start, though.
George Kirby @ CHW – Arguably should be above the White Sox but that start against the Royals was so not what we wanted.
Kenta Maeda @ MIL – Maeda lost his slider last time out. He should get it back.
Tarik Skubal vs. CHC – His four-seamer has literally the best O-Swing across all starters in the majors. Incredible.
Sandy Alcantara @ SDP – Alright Sandy, AGA is at the doorstep. Knock em dead.
Probably Starts
Andrew Abbott @ LAA – Abbott isn’t punching out everyone and their grandmothers anymore (sorry for that image), sadly. Still, the Angels are generally a solid team to stream against these days.
Cole Ragans @ OAK – The schedule is so good ahead for Ragans. As long as he features the four-seamer well enough for strikes and doesn’t get changeup-happy, this should be bliss.
Seth Lugo vs. MIA – It’s a solid Toby outing.
José Urquidy vs. BOS – Ditto, especially with Urquidy’s fantastic kitchen sink approach we’ve seen recently.
Aaron Civale vs. COL – Double ditto. That’s a thing, right? He’s back up to 65% cutters + curveball because we actually have good things in life.
Charlie Morton vs. NYM – The Win chance and strikeouts are too good to pass up, even with the ratio risk this Cherry Bomb brings each time out.
Michael Lorenzen vs. SFG – He just had a clunker, but this is the Giants. Surely we’re not giving up after one bad outing, right?
Questionable Starts
Reid Detmers vs. CIN – Detmers took down the Rangers, but his command was off. The ball landed in good spots, but it often wasn’t intentional and I heavily question if he’s turned a corner.
Chris Sale @ HOU – His velocity fell dramatically to just 91 mph, topping out at only 93.6 mph – he was averaging 95+ beforehand. Not great, Bob.
Jameson Taillon @ DET – He’s fine. I wonder if there’s enough in the repertoire to sustain the run he’s on, but hey, it’s the Tigers.
Jack Flaherty vs. TOR – Flaherty has had his moments and isn’t pitching as poorly as the lines have suggested, but he also won’t carry the same adrenaline he had the last time he faced the Jays right after the trade deadline.
Do Not Starts
MacKenzie Gore @ NYY – He’s a Cherry Bomb who has been far more Bomb over the last few months, even if he’s fresh off a solid strikeout performance. Arguably in the third tier based on the recency + the demoralization of the Yankees and yet I can’t do it.
José Quintana @ ATL – Quintana has had his command, but it’s Atlanta (I know, he survived last time. Don’t press your luck). In addition, he’ll get the Dodgers after this one and I can’t endorse holding onto Quintana for two weeks. He’ll likely be on the wire when you want to jump back in any way.
Matthew Liberatore @ PIT – He was 94/95 for a game, then fell back to 92 mph and change. Womp womp.
Luis Severino vs. WSN – Severino bolstered his velocity up nearly two ticks in his last outing + leaned on a cutter inside of slider/change. I wonder if that gets him out of this horrific funk.
Alex Cobb @ PHI – The splitter hasn’t been great (save for one outing) in what, three months?
Xzavion Curry vs. LAD – Curry chucked fastballs that weren’t hit and mixed in a solid slider. That’s not enough for the Dodgers.
Austin Gomber @ TBR – Gomber had that lovely run and it came to screeching halt last time out. There’s a chance he can make it happen here, but the ceiling isn’t worth it.
Michael Kopech vs. SEA – His fastball is rough these days and Kopech is so far away from the man I wanted him to be.
Kyle Muller vs. KCR – Oh hey, he’s back! I hope he’s showing us something new. Probably not.
Andre Jackson vs. STL – Andre isn’t going to go five frames, is he?
Brett Kennedy @ LAA – Absolutely not.
Featured Image by Kurt Wasemiller (@KUWasemiller on Twitter / @kurt_player02 on Instagram)
Only an absolute moron would tell people to start Bailey Ober. Did you ever consider looking at his recent performances ?
They have been awful – almost as bad as your predictions. If this were Scherzer, I’d expect a bounce back. But it’s Bailey Ober ! RU freaking stupid or something ?