It’s the weekly tradition here at Pitcher List where I rank the Top 100 Starting Pitchers in fantasy baseball and it’s time for Week 4’s starting pitcher rankings.
Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 12:00pm EST as I live-stream its creation each week!
As always, make sure to read the notes as there are many changes that have good reasons behind them, and please consider that these ranks are based on a 12-teamer, 5×5 roto format. Adjust accordingly to your situation.
Ranking Notes
- This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
- Seriously. Read the notes.
- We had many injured starters get removed this week – Lance Lynn, Stephen Strasburg, Max Fried, and Drew Smyly, three of whom were inside the Top 30. Please keep this in mind when you see the green placement changes.
- It’s the fourth week and it’s time to make some changes in the Top 20 – not sweeping ones, but a few, starting with swapping Aaron Nola and Lucas Giolito. It gave me no pleasure to do so, but after a CGSHO from Nola and a 7 ER brigade from Lucas Giolito earlier today, it’s hard to argue against it. Does it really matter though? Not really, they’re both dope.
- I’ve also elevated Trevor Bauer above Max Scherzer as Bauer is displaying the stamina we saw last year paired with consistent performances. It’s tough to ignore at this point.
- Tier 3 is seeing the changes I wanted to make last week but needed one more week of validation. Even when Tyler Glasnow didn’t have the same slider we saw across the first few weeks, he still had enough for five quality innings. Corbin Burnes is stupid talented but his season-long volume is still in question. Brandon Woodruff has been productive as well and is proving to be more of a rock than Jack Flaherty, Luis Castillo, and Kenta Maeda.
- It’s wonderful to welcome back Zac Gallen to The List, whose biggest knock entering the season was his questionable workload. Given that he’s missed two weeks, it does push him slightly farther up relative to how I thought of him in the pre-season, letting him land ahead of Maeda and Castillo.
- Why is Hyun Jin Ryu in Tier 3? Simply put, I wanted all pitchers currently with the Aces Gonna Ace label to be in the same tier.
- Blake Snell recovered against the Dodgers after a sub-40-pitch start, but he’s still more inconsistent than the others around him, causing Glasnow and Burnes to leap-frog him.
- Despite allowing 10 ER across his last three starts, Sandy Alcantara’s skills are pushing him up the ranks, as he’s failed to throw fewer than six frames in each of his four outings. He’s reminding me of Brandon Woodruff, Lance Lynn, and Zack Wheeler with his workload and strikeout ability and I’m a huge fan for the rest of the season.
- It was a rough outing over the weekend for Lance McCullers, though it was a product of his vaccine side effects. His new slider is legit and should be a strong member of your staff through the year.
- Sonny Gray has returned and despite not being his best self in his 2021 debut, you should trust him to be a sturdy arm for the months ahead.
- I gave a small dip to Zach Plesac after he imploded against the ChiSox last week. I don’t think it’ll be a regular occurrence, but he deserved a light drop for it.
- I elected to put Joe Musgrove, Dylan Bundy, and Tyler Mahle into the fourth tier. As long as they continue performing well, we can continue to see them rise the ranks. Not too far but hopefully they never head back to the fifth tier.
- Julio Urias had himself an unfortunate night against the Rockies and I’m not grading him harshly for it. He’s still a fantastic asset as the Dodgers are giving him a comfortable spot in the rotation.
- Pablo Lopez displayed his volatility last week when his changeup wasn’t as effective as we’ve seen in the past. He’s still Top 35, but his lack of depth does prevent him from escalating like his peers.
- Yes, I’m in shock as well, but Trevor Rogers is inside the Top 40. I can’t deny him any longer as he’s peppering 95+ with a great changeup and slider and looking at the rest of the landscape, he’s clearly a cut above Tier 6.
- While I trust those arms inside the Top 40, Tier 6 has many that could climb over the next few weeks but have some work to do. Jameson Taillon and Corey Kluber each are making their returns from nearly two years of consistent starts and I’m willing to give them another pair of starts before altering my season-long expectations for them. I think they have the ability, but we need to see it first.
- I had little choice but to move Kyle Hendricks down as he’s continued to struggle. His weekend performance could have been a product of his skipped start (due to a non-COVID illness), but his fastball velocity has been down and he hasn’t had that elite command we’ve seen in years past. Here’s to hoping he demands a Top 40 spot again soon.
- Carlos Rodon not only threw a no-hitter, but he did so with legit velocity still at 95 mph – albeit starting slowly around 92/93 and ramping up as the adrenaline kicked in. I’m a bit shocked at how high I have him and this #44 rank is more of a product of the landscape than a belief that he’ll hold it all season.
- Freddy Peralta jumps into the Top 50 as his effectively wild approach continues to get strikeouts and avoid blowups. I still have my reservations that his mechanics breed consistency, though you have to keep starting him as there are few options as electric as him.
- I made a separate tier for Patrick Corbin and Chris Paddack as their ranking is highly dependent on your situation. I’m in the camp that believes both pitchers will figure it out as the season goes on (each has a TIARA) but it’s unclear when they will lock in and turn back into Top 35 starters. It’s up to you if you’re in a situation that can take the chance or if you need something more enticing in the short term.
- I can’t deny any longer how effective Michael Pineda has been since he returned last season. It would be foolish to hold him back at this point so let him fly for as long as this goes.
- There was a great discussion in the Twitch chat about Huascar Ynoa vs. Triston McKenzie, and I eventually settled on Ynoa for his fantastic heater (95-99!) and easier schedule ahead. There’s a bit more floor for McKenzie through the season, though.
- Yes, I am bolstering Nathan Eovaldi after his ten strikeout performance against the White Sox today – it completed before today’s update = I incorporate it into The List. His breakers have continued to have success and it’s to embrace the new approach as legitimate.
- I’m not exactly sure what to do with Shohei Ohtani and I’m completely fine if you want to push him in the late 60s or 70s. We’ve only seen him once and that upside is still a mystery.
- Tier 9 is mostly the Toby tier, with arms who are decent in the short term and should be somewhat stable through the season. Ignore the “rank change” for the most part, it’s all about grouping like players together at this point (i.e. don’t be upset about Chris Bassitt and Zach Eflin moving down!)
- Steven Matz gets a sizeable bump as he’s had success with his sinker and changeup. I think it’s a bit of a Vargas Rule but it’s hard to deny his clear rosterability at the moment.
- I didn’t know what to do with Andrew Heaney and shoved him into the Toby tier. He’ll be volatile through the year, but he is still a step up from the Tier 10 options.
- JT Brubaker – aka Coffee Cakes – has impressed with his slider and command of his sinker, though the ceiling is capped without a deep repertoire. A solid addition, nonetheless.
- Tier 10 is where we start to get upside players who could rise in future weeks. Alex Wood has returned from the IL and is throwing a touch harder than in the past. Here’s to hoping it sticks.
- Dylan Cease didn’t have the line you wanted, but his fastball and slider command were as good as I’ve seen from him. It could be the moment before he turns the corner as he gets Cleveland and Detroit next.
- Matt Shoemaker was denied a start over the weekend and I’m liking the feel of his slider. Here’s to hoping he can keep the momentum this week despite the long gap between starts.
- Danny Duffy makes his return after sitting 94/95 in his last outing. It’s hard to ignore the man throwing like his breakout 2016 year again and I wish it lasts.
- Do you want to keep rostering German Marquez? It’s up to you, really. It’s too much of a headache for me, but I completely understand if you’re willing to endure Coors.
- Tier 11 contains all the interesting additions to The List this week. David Peterson fanned ten and could keep it up moving forward. Alex Cobb tossed 50% splitters and had success. Michael Fulmer is back throwing 95 mph once again and I hope his changeup can return as well. Jakob Junis seems to be on a decent role with his cutter, though don’t be too shocked if his lack of depth comes back to haunt him. Michael Wacha had excellent fastball/changeup command and may be a solid play against the Royals this week.
- I took no joy lowering Ryan Yarbrough (aka The Fratty Pirate) but with the Rays using an opener for him paired with an overall low strikeout rate and a shaky start to the season, it may be time to look elsewhere.
- Joe Ross has performed well in his short two-start stint against the Cardinals and Dodgers and may be able to keep this going for another round or two, pushing him to join The List.
- It was sad to give major drops to Zach Davies and Mitch Keller, but neither can be trusted in the near future as neither have the command of their arsenal we wanted to see. Monitor both and hopefully they can enter the Top 75 soon.
Fringe Pitchers I Considered
| Pitcher | Reason |
|---|---|
| Carlos Carrasco | IL with hamstring injury. Top 20 SP |
| Lance Lynn | Likely missing one start. Top 20 SP |
| Dinelson Lamet | Likely returning this week. Top 25 SP |
| Stephen Strasburg | IL with shoulder injury. Top 30 SP |
| Max Fried | IL with hamstring injury. Top 30 SP |
| Mike Soroka | IL with torn Achilles. Top 30 SP |
| Sixto Sanchez | Demoted + IL with shoulder injury. Top 40 SP |
| Chris Sale | IL from TJS. Top 10 SP |
| Noah Syndergaard | IL from TJS. Top 15 SP |
| Luis Severino | IL from TJS. Top 15 SP |
| Framber Valdez | IL with finger injury. Top 50 SP |
| Michael Lorenzen | IL with shoulder injury. Top 80 SP |
| Elieser Hernandez | Biceps Tendon injury. Top 80 SP |
| Drew Smyly | IL with forearm injury. Top 70 SP |
| Tony Gonsolin | IL with shoulder inflammation. Top 80 SP |
| Spencer Turnbull | Going to wait and see in return start. Still ILL. |
| Cristian Javier | Demoted for Jake Odorizzi. Top 80 SP |
| A.J. Puk | IL with a biceps injury |
| David Price | Pitching in relief + ineffective |
| Garrett Richards | Not sure he’s good enough |
| Chris Archer | Dealing with an arm injury |
| Daulton Jefferies | Cole Irvin has the spot |
| Caleb Smith | No longer in rotation |
| Madison Bumgarner | Tough schedule + not at 91 mph |
| Tejay Antone | Injury means he’s currently out of the rotation |
| Josh Lindblom | Does not have a rotation spot |
| Alec Mills | Does not have a rotation spot |
| Domingo German | Demoted, will be back soon. Top 70 SP |
| Jose Quintana | Not sure he’s good enough |
| Randy Dobnak | Does not have a rotation spot |
| Jake Arrieta | Not sure he’s good enough |
| J.A. Happ | Not sure he’s good enough |
| Aaron Sanchez | Not sure he’s good enough |
| Jeff Hoffman | Not sure he’s good enough |
| Johnny Cueto | IL with lat injury. Questionable Top 100 SP |
| Tanner Houck | Demoted to alternate site |
| James Paxton | IL with forearm strain. Top 60 SP |
| Adrian Morejon | IL with forearm strain. Top 80 SP |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Not sure he’s good enough |
| Martin Perez | Not sure he’s good enough |
| Brad Keller | Not sure he’s good enough |
| Ross Stripling | IL with forearm injury. Top 80 SP |
| Tarik Skubal | Demoted to “piggyback” role |
| Adbert Alzolay | Demoted to alternate site |
| Dean Kremer | Demoted to alternate site |
| Jose de Leon | Demoted to bullpen |
| Joey Lucchesi | Not sure he’s good enough |
| Logan Allen | Not sure he’s good enough |
| Kwang Hyun Kim | The last one cut. Aiming for a Toby. |
My rule for moving from the IL back to the rankings: If they are confirmed to return before the next edition of The List, then I will add them.
All right, now that the notes are at the top and you understand where I’m coming from, let’s get to The List:
| Rank | Pitcher | Badges | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacob deGromT1 | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
| 2 | Shane Bieber | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
| 3 | Gerrit Cole | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
| 4 | Yu DarvishT2 | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
| 5 | Aaron Nola | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +1 |
| 6 | Lucas Giolito | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -1 |
| 7 | Walker Buehler | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
| 8 | Trevor Bauer | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb | +1 |
| 9 | Max Scherzer | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -1 |
| 10 | Clayton Kershaw | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
| 11 | Tyler GlasnowT3 | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips | +6 |
| 12 | Brandon Woodruff | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +2 |
| 13 | Corbin Burnes | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb | +5 |
| 14 | Jack Flaherty | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -1 |
| 15 | Zac Gallen | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +UR |
| 16 | Luis Castillo | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -4 |
| 17 | Kenta Maeda | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -6 |
| 18 | Blake Snell | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside | -3 |
| 19 | Hyun Jin Ryu | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused | +1 |
| 20 | Zack WheelerT4 | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -1 |
| 21 | Sandy Alcantara | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +6 |
| 22 | Lance McCullers Jr. | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips | +6 |
| 23 | Charlie Morton | Ace Potential Injury Risk Quality Starts | +2 |
| 24 | Sonny Gray | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 25 | Zach Plesac | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -2 |
| 26 | José Berríos | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
| 27 | Zack Greinke | Ace Potential Quality Starts | +3 |
| 28 | Julio Urías | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +4 |
| 29 | Joe Musgrove | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +4 |
| 30 | Dylan Bundy | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +6 |
| 31 | Tyler Mahle | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +4 |
| 32 | Pablo LópezT5 | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +2 |
| 33 | Aaron Civale | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused | +4 |
| 34 | Jesús Luzardo | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | -3 |
| 35 | Ian Anderson | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Ratio Focused | +3 |
| 36 | John Means | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +3 |
| 37 | Kevin Gausman | Ace Potential Quality Starts Ratio Focused | +3 |
| 38 | Trevor Rogers | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +9 |
| 39 | Frankie Montas | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +2 |
| 40 | Jameson TaillonT6 | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +2 |
| 41 | Kyle Hendricks | Ace Potential Quality Starts Ratio Focused | -19 |
| 42 | Corey Kluber | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +1 |
| 43 | Marcus Stroman | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused | +3 |
| 44 | Carlos Rodón | Ace Potential Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +8 |
| 45 | José Urquidy | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips | - |
| 46 | Jordan Montgomery | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Stash Option | +2 |
| 47 | Dustin May | Ace Potential Low Ips Ratio Focused | +2 |
| 48 | Freddy Peralta | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb | +15 |
| 49 | Patrick CorbinT7 | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -20 |
| 50 | Chris Paddack | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -6 |
| 51 | Yusei KikuchiT8 | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +3 |
| 52 | Eduardo Rodriguez | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb | +3 |
| 53 | Michael Pineda | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +13 |
| 54 | Huascar Ynoa | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +35 |
| 55 | Triston McKenzie | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +7 |
| 56 | Nathan Eovaldi | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +15 |
| 57 | Matthew Boyd | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +8 |
| 58 | Shohei Ohtani | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +2 |
| 59 | Chris BassittT9 | Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused | -3 |
| 60 | Steven Matz | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Streaming Option | +15 |
| 61 | Zach Eflin | Ace Potential Quality Starts Streaming Option | -2 |
| 62 | Andrew Heaney | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +2 |
| 63 | Dallas Keuchel | Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused | -13 |
| 64 | Taijuan Walker | Quality Starts Toby Streaming Option | +3 |
| 65 | JT Brubaker | Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option | +23 |
| 66 | Marco Gonzales | Quality Starts Toby | -9 |
| 67 | Jake Odorizzi | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Streaming Option | -14 |
| 68 | Sean Manaea | Injury Risk Toby Ratio Focused | - |
| 69 | Brady Singer | Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option | +27 |
| 70 | Anthony DeSclafaniT10 | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | -1 |
| 71 | Alex Wood | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Streaming Option | +UR |
| 72 | Dylan Cease | Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb | +15 |
| 73 | Justin Dunn | Strikeout Upside Streaming Option | +4 |
| 74 | Matt Shoemaker | Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option | +26 |
| 75 | Danny Duffy | Quality Starts Toby Streaming Option | +UR |
| 76 | Robbie Ray | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb | - |
| 77 | Dane Dunning | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +2 |
| 78 | Germán Márquez | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +4 |
| 79 | Kyle GibsonT11 | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +12 |
| 80 | David Peterson | Strikeout Upside Streaming Option | +UR |
| 81 | Ryan Yarbrough | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | -23 |
| 82 | Alex Cobb | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +UR |
| 83 | Griffin Canning | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +1 |
| 84 | Michael Fulmer | Injury Risk Low Ips | +UR |
| 85 | Jakob Junis | Streaming Option | +UR |
| 86 | Wade Miley | Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option | -1 |
| 87 | Logan Webb | Strikeout Upside Streaming Option | -14 |
| 88 | Mike Minor | Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused | -5 |
| 89 | Michael Wacha | Streaming Option | +UR |
| 90 | Zach DaviesT12 | Quality Starts Toby | -18 |
| 91 | Taylor Widener | Strikeout Upside Streaming Option | +2 |
| 92 | Joe Ross | Toby Streaming Option | +UR |
| 93 | Rich Hill | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside | -1 |
| 94 | Mitch Keller | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | -33 |
| 95 | Luke Weaver | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | -14 |
| 96 | Carlos Martínez | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | -18 |
| 97 | Nick Pivetta | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | -3 |
| 98 | Casey Mize | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | -3 |
| 99 | Bruce Zimmermann | Toby Streaming Option | -1 |
| 100 | Adam Wainwright | Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option | -1 |
Labels Legend
Aces Gonna Ace
Ace Potential
Holly
Toby
Cherry Bomb
Spice Girl
Vargas Rule
Streaming Option
QS Bonus
Wins Bonus
Strikeouts Bonus
Ratios Bonus
Rotation Spot Bonus
Team Context Effect
Stash Option
Injury Risk
Playing Time Question
Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
Is TB “optimizing” Wacha? 15.9% SwStr%, 3.35 SIERA and 21.3% K-BB% in 3 appearances against full strength Yankees (2x) and Red Sox lineups. His FB usage is down ~20% and cutter usage up ~20% from his STL days.
Nick, thanks for all of your hard work to put this list together every week! I look forward to reading it every Monday and adjusting my pitching staff accordingly.
With that being said, I got my pitching staff into a world of hurt following your draft guide and am hoping to get some advice on what I can do to improve it.
My current SP’s are: Bieber, Plesac, Taillon, Kluber, Rodon and Corbin.
I also have Fried, Sale, Severino and Syndergaard all on the IL currently.
The highest ranked available pitcher on my waiver wire is Urquidy, followed by Montgomery. Your rankings say that I should drop Corbin for Urquidy, and I think that my situation has me needing a more enticing arm in the short term. Would you make that switch? Also, would you drop someone like Kluber or Taillon (no way I’m dropping Rodon even though he’s somehow ranked lower than both of them) for a streaming pitcher spot? I would have been much better off streaming the last two weeks than taking multiple double digit ERA beatings from my entire pitching staff (save for Bieber).
PL always seems to underrate Urquidy’s ceiling. He’s a top-30 arm (currently #18 by K-BB%, which is one of the few things that’s worth a damn at this moment!), and you should 1,000% make that switch. I’m surprised to hear there were preseason rankings anywhere putting him behind Kluber, Rodon, or Corbin.
You won’t beat a healthy Taillon with streaming pitchers, though Yankee Stadium means a big old asterisk there, but beating this version of Kluber might be feasible.
How much longer does luzardo get to stay in that range of your rankings? He hasn’t looked good. Thanks
Nick! I love the list and look forward to every update. Great work, and thanks. Could you change one thing? Your color coded squares are impossible for us color blind folks to follow! Can you maybe add a letter inside each color box for us to be able to follow along? Thanks!
What makes “The Bear” you only “Stash” label?
Which would be the preferable IL stash between Strassburg and Soroka? Not feeling great about either’s return at the moment.
Where would Justus Sheffield slot?
Yah, I’m going to roll my eyes at this despite the preemptive warning. Eflin is just in the wrong tier. He is 15-20 spots too low.
Agree. Love PL but Nick has biases just like everyone else — namely he is anti sinker pitcher, pro yankee, and slow to write off big name guys that are washed like Corbin, Kluber and Bumgarner. Hence Kluber being ranked 20 spots higher than Eflin despite his last good year being 2018 and needing a miraculous turnaround just to be able to match the type of production Eflin has been providing in 20/21.
“Kluber stinks in April, we’re anticipating that so make sure you bake that in.” – Nick
“Kluber is pitching terrible in April, he should be dropped in the rankings” – Commenters
…….SMH