The List 4/5: Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2021 – Week 2

We’ve begun the weekly tradition here at Pitcher List where I rank the Top 100 Starting Pitchers in fantasy baseball.

Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 12:00pm EST as I live-stream its creation each week!

As always, make sure to read the notes as there are many changes that have good reasons behind them, and please consider that these ranks are based on a 12-teamer, 5×5 roto format. Adjust accordingly to your situation.

 

Ranking Notes

 

• This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
• Seriously. Read the notes.

 

• Once again, there were some significant removals that cause shifts to the rankings in the second half – specifically Sixto Sanchez, Tony Gonsolin, and Elieser Hernandez.
• I also removed David Price, Garrett Richards, Daulton Jefferies, and Chris Archer. Shouldn’t be much of surprise to anyone seeing those name removed as they shouldn’t be rostered in 12-teamers at the moment.

 

• So I’m not changing anything inside the Top 18 and really just one thing in the Top 26. Corbin Burnes gets a rise given he clearly has the command of last year intact and the innings difference between him and the other arms around him doesn’t make up for the step-up in quality.
• Meanwhile, I so badly want to raise Tyler Glasnow with his new slider, but I just can’t after one start of its existence. It is really pretty, though.

 

• I elected to raise Jose Berrios, Sandy Alcantara, and Lance McCullers a touch as each of them showcased improved ability. Berrios is throwing even harder than 2020’s velocity bump, McCullers is featuring a new – and deadly – slider, and Alcantara already had both his slider and changeup working on opening day.
• They all remain behind Strasburg and Corbin as they simply haven’t given me anything to gauge from them yet. It’s hard making changes after just four days of games!

 

• The main story in Tier 6 is the fall of Chris Paddack. We were already uneasy about his performances in spring training and his outing against Arizona was more of the same disappointment. His fastball simply isn’t what it was in 2019 at the moment and that’s a problem. Still inside the Top 40, mind you, but I prefer others instead, now.
• Speaking of which, many inside this tier had their first outing and showed us why we wanted them in drafts. Joe Musgrove and Tyler Mahle each quelled some of my fears, though. Musgrove was able to dominate with his slider as he did in September and move away from a heavy dose of heaters, while Mahle was trusted to go over 80 pitches in his first outing. Both could be legit arms for your teams through the full year.

 

• Tier 7 isn’t very interesting, but I made it smaller as Tier 8 is a bit riskier. Frankie Montas is here without a start as I don’t think I’ll have the same confidence in him as others in Tier 6.
• John Means didn’t get a major bump as his fastball velocity was back to 2019 levels. I can imagine it gets back up through the year, though, and it was fantastic seeing his changeup work like the ole days.

 

• After casting plenty doubt that Zach Eflin would be able to bring over his curveball to 2021, he tossed it 19% of the time and it worked wonderfully. I’m still skeptical that it can be a regular feature through the season, but this is a great start. And hey, it gets questionable very quickly in the back half of starters, so welcome to the Top 50, even if just barely.
• I considered lowering Shohei Ohtani after his volatility Sunday night and his lack of adjustment is more of a product of the landscape than of his ability. There just weren’t guys to place above him.

 

• Tier 9 has only one major adjustment – the addition of Dustin May. With Gonsolin and Price out of the picture, May has fallen comfortably into the 5th rotation without the caveats of “how long will he go?” and “how long will it last?” Both questions seem to have satisfying answers at the moment, making him a somewhat secure option…for the short term. I still question if he has a whiff pitch and, hey, maybe they do cut his starts shorter in favor of Price, but May deserves the love.
• Ryan Yarbrough is a bit underrated, too, and with the Rays lacking depth in their rotation, expect him to go at least 80 pitches regularly moving forward with a solid WHIP.

 

• Tier 10 features a pair of Twins near the top, with Michael Pineda and J.A. Happ. Each has a solid schedule and a repertoire that should allow them to take advantage. Easy end-of-rotation fill-ins until you find that guy later in the year.
• I also gave significant boosts to Yusei Kikuchi and Chris Bassitt. Kikuchi pitched admirably against the Giants, but I can’t help but worry that his 2020 inconsistencies will crop up again + he has a tough schedule. Still, Tier 11 is dicey and Kikuchi’s skillset awards him the Top 65 spot.

 

• As for Bassitt, he’s already one start down with a poor matchup, with one to go. I think he should help overall in 12-teamers through the year, and as it gets easier for him, he deserves the bump.
• I did lower Carlos Martinez into this tier, simply because there’s a touch more volatility than those in Tier 9. I still think he pitched a little better than the 4 ER stat line will tell you.

 

• Tier 11 is filled with fun arms who haven’t quite made it yet. Freddy Peralta came in to relieve in Game 1 of the season and displayed the wonky control that makes us terrified. Here’s to hoping that disappears when he starts.
• I’ve also added Tanner Houck to this tier as he surprisingly got the call against the Orioles and flat out dominated with his slider. I have some reservations about the rest of his repertoire, but he gets a repeat matchup against the O’s and it could be the start of a productive April that will force his attendance even when Eduardo Rodriguez returns.

 

• Houck’s teammate Nathan Eovaldi fell to Tier 12, though, as his schedule is a rugged one across the next three weeks. You can drop him in 12-teamers.
• It wasn’t Brady Singer’s day against the Rangers and now his schedule is rougher than we’d like. I was hoping last week to see a performance that would grant some confidence despite the gauntlet ahead, but sadly we got the opposite.

 

• There are a ton of names in Tier 13 and for the most part, they are here because they have a decent schedule or could be a serviceable Toby if things align. Griffin Canning is oddly the opposite – a Cherry Bomb and I have low expectations that he can perform well early. I hope to be wrong there.
• Plenty of new names here to replace all the clear removals. Bruce Zimmermann showcased the BSB and could be a Vargas Rule.

 

• Wade Miley has a gorgeous schedule and could be a sneaky innings eater for your teams.
• Dylan Cease didn’t perform well on Sunday, but maybe his command corrects itself in the near future. JT Brubaker has the tools to be a Toby but we haven’t seen him yet this year.

 

• Adrian Morejon has a rotation spot in San Diego and I won’t rule out that his splitter can show up to make him valuable.
• Finally, there’s Logan Allen who I don’t believe will get plenty of innings early in the year, but he could earn the fifth spot and display growth after getting traded to Cleveland in 2019.

 

• Lastly, there’s Tier 14, with a few arms that could be considered a decent streamer at times. Nothing much to write home about with Joey Lucchesi, Adam Wainwright, and Martin Perez.
• Finally, with the final slot I could have put Taylor Widener, but I wasn’t too impressed with his fastball command and he has a rough schedule. Instead, why not bring back an old “friend” in Nick Pivetta. I don’t really believe it, but hey, who knows.

 

 

All right, now that the notes are at the top and you understand where I’m coming from, let’s get to The List:

Rank	Pitcher	Badges	Change
1	Jacob deGromT1	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
2	Shane Bieber	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
3	Gerrit Cole	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
4	Yu Darvish T2	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
5	Lucas Giolito	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
6	Aaron Nola	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
7	Walker Buehler	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
8	Max Scherzer	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
9	Trevor Bauer	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	-
10	Clayton Kershaw	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
11	Kenta Maeda T3	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
12	Luis Castillo	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
13	Jack Flaherty	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
14	Brandon Woodruff	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
15	Blake Snell T4	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	-
16	Lance Lynn	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
17	Tyler Glasnow	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips	-
18	Zack Wheeler	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
19	Corbin Burnes	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+4
20	Hyun Jin Ryu	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-1
21	Max Fried	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
22	Kyle Hendricks	Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-1
23	Zach Plesac	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
24	Stephen Strasburg T5	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
25	Charlie Morton	Ace Potential Injury Risk Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-
26	Patrick Corbin	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
27	José Berríos	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
28	Sandy Alcantara	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+2
29	Lance McCullers Jr.	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips	+2
30	Zack Greinke	Ace Potential Quality Starts	-2
31	Jesús Luzardo T6	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside	+2
32	Pablo López	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+2
33	Julio Urías	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
34	Joe Musgrove	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+7
35	Tyler Mahle	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+8
36	Aaron Civale	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-
37	Ian Anderson	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	+2
38	Dylan Bundy	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+4
39	Chris Paddack	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-12
40	Corey Kluber	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-3
41	Jameson Taillon	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-3
42	Frankie Montas T7	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-2
43	John Means	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
44	José Urquidy	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question	-
45	Kevin Gausman	Ace Potential Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+1
46	Marcus Stroman	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+1
47	Shohei Ohtani T8	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+1
48	James Paxton	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+1
49	Jordan Montgomery	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Stash Option	+1
50	Zach Eflin	Ace Potential Quality Starts Toby Streaming Option	+13
51	Triston McKenzie	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-
52	Domingo Germán	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-
53	Dallas Keuchel T9	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	-
54	Marco Gonzales	Quality Starts Toby	-
55	Zach Davies	Quality Starts Toby	-
56		Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-
57	Mike Minor	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	-
58	Dustin May	Low Ips Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	+34
59	Ryan Yarbrough	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-
60	Michael Pineda T10	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+12
61	Carlos Martínez	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-3
62	J.A. Happ	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+11
63	Yusei Kikuchi	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+18
64	Trevor Rogers	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+7
65	Chris Bassitt	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+19
66	Logan Webb T11	Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	-6
67	Freddy Peralta	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-6
68	Matthew Boyd	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-4
69	Mitch Keller	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-4
70	Tarik Skubal	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-4
71	Carlos Rodón	Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+4
72	Tanner Houck	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+UR
73	Germán Márquez	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-5
74	Adbert Alzolay T12	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-4
75	Justin Dunn	Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	+7
76	Andrew Heaney	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+3
77	Taijuan Walker	Quality Starts Toby Streaming Option	-
78	Nathan Eovaldi	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-4
79	Sean Manaea	Injury Risk Ratio Focused	+1
80	Dane Dunning	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+7
81	Daniel Ponce de Leon	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+9
82	Brady Singer	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-15
83	Brad Keller	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-5
84	Jake Arrieta T13	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+9
85	Matt Shoemaker	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+10
86	Griffin Canning	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+2
87	Mike Foltynewicz	Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+7
88	Bruce Zimmermann	Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+UR
89	Wade Miley	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
90	Dylan Cease	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	+UR
91	Cristian Javier	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-2
92	JT Brubaker	Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
93	Casey Mize	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-2
94	Adrian Morejon	Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+UR
95	Logan Allen	Playing Time Question Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
96	David Peterson	Quality Starts Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+2
97	Joey Lucchesi T14	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+2
98	Adam Wainwright	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-1
99	Martín Pérez	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+1
100	Nick Pivetta	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+UR

Photo by Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)