Hey y’all.
It’s the last week of the regular season and what matters most is the day-to-day breakdown of starts I like. I decided to do the regular rankings of starters, but now add color coding so you can easily determine better streams vs. other options. Players are still ranked in order of my preference, though you may want to take a riskier option for your specific situation, of course. Plan accordingly.
Please leave comments below if you’re debating between two starts on different days, I was thinking of mashing them all together, but it was just too much to do on top of everything else.
Here is the legend for the color-coded tables:
What do these colors mean?
| Color Legend |
|---|
| Blindly start them. |
| Start these players but they have a little more risk. |
| Middling starts, mostly Tobys, some with solid strikeout upside. |
| Sit but they have a higher ceiling than those below. Many Cherry Bombs live here. |
| Sit. Just sit. |
Let’s get to it, here are the expected starters for the week sorted by whether I’d start them or not.
Monday’s Starting Pitchers
Monday’s Expected Starting Pitchers
| Rank | Pitcher | Matchup |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacob deGrom | vs. TB |
| 2 | Luis Castillo | vs. MIL |
| 3 | Dylan Bundy | vs. TEX |
| 4 | Lance McCullers | @ SEA |
| 5 | Brandon Woodruff | @ CIN |
| 6 | Aaron Civale | vs. CHW |
| 7 | Zack Wheeler | @ WSH |
| 8 | Adam Wainwright | @ KC |
| 9 | Dane Dunning | @ CLE |
| 10 | German Márquez | @ SF |
| 11 | Marco Gonzales | vs. HOU |
| 12 | Johnny Cueto | vs. COL |
| 13 | Jon Lester | @ PIT |
| 14 | JT Brubaker | vs. CHC |
| 15 | Kyle Gibson | @ LAA |
| 16 | Anibal Sanchez | vs. PHI |
| 17 | Trevor Rogers | @ ATL |
| 18 | Matt Shoemaker | vs. NYY |
| 19 | Carlos Hernandez | vs. STL |
| 20 | Huascar Ynoa | vs. MIA |
| 21 | Michael King? | @ TOR |
| 22 | Peter Fairbanks | @ NYM |
Tuesday’s Starting Pitchers
| Rank | Pitcher | Matchup |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shane Bieber | vs. CHW |
| 2 | Gerrit Cole | @ TOR |
| 3 | Aaron Nola | @ WSH |
| 4 | Blake Snell | @ NYM |
| 5 | Sonny Gray | vs. MIL |
| 6 | Framber Valdez | @ SEA |
| 7 | Dustin May | vs. OAK |
| 8 | Brady Singer | vs. STL |
| 9 | Zach Davies | vs. LAA |
| 10 | Seth Lugo | vs. TB |
| 11 | Keegan Akin | @ BOS |
| 12 | Randy Dobnak | vs. DET |
| 13 | Drew Smyly | vs. COL |
| 14 | Frankie Montas | @ LAD |
| 15 | Caleb Smith | vs. TEX |
| 16 | Kyle Freeland | @ SF |
| 17 | Tarik Skubal | @ MIN |
| 18 | Griffin Canning | @ SD |
| 19 | Cole Hamels | vs. MIA |
| 20 | Austin Gomber | @ KC |
| 21 | Brett Anderson | @ CIN |
| 22 | Steven Brault | vs. CHC |
| 23 | Austin Voth | vs. PHI |
| 24 | Reynaldo López | @ CLE |
| 25 | Jordan Lyles | @ ARI |
| 26 | Nick Pivetta | vs. BAL |
| 27 | Ljay Newsome | vs. HOU |
| 28 | Adbert Alzolay | @ PIT |
| 29 | Tanner Roark | vs. NYY |
| 30 | José Ureña | @ ATL |
| 31 | Sterling Sharp | vs. PHI |
| 32 | Ramon Rosso | @ WSH |
Wednesday’s Starting Pitchers
Wednesday’s Expected Starting Pitchers
| Rank | Pitcher | Matchup |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trevor Bauer | vs. MIL |
| 2 | Kenta Maeda | vs. DET |
| 3 | Zac Gallen | vs. TEX |
| 4 | Lucas Giolito | @ CLE |
| 5 | Tyler Glasnow | @ NYM |
| 6 | Zack Greinke | @ SEA |
| 7 | Mike Clevinger | vs. LAA |
| 8 | Zach Plesac | vs. CWS |
| 9 | Kyle Hendricks | @ PIT |
| 10 | Masahiro Tanaka | @ TOR |
| 11 | Julio Urias | vs. OAK |
| 12 | Sixto Sanchez | @ ATL |
| 13 | Carlos Martinez | @ KC |
| 14 | Dean Kremer | @ BOS |
| 15 | Nathan Eovaldi | vs. BAL |
| 16 | Zach Eflin | @ WAS |
| 17 | Danny Duffy | vs STL |
| 18 | Sean Manaea | @ LAD |
| 19 | Jaime Barria | @ SD |
| 20 | Adrian Houser | @ CIN |
| 21 | Trevor Williams | vs. CHC |
| 22 | Ryan Castellani | @ SF |
| 23 | Logan Webb | vs. COL |
| 24 | Casey Mize | @ MIN |
| 25 | Steven Matz | vs. TB |
| 26 | Nick Margevicius | vs. HOU |
| 27 | Erick Fedde | vs. PHI |
| 28 | Wes Benjamin | @ ARI |
| 29 | Josh Tomlin | vs. MIA |
| 30 | Chase Anderson | vs. NYY |
Thursday’s Starting Pitchers
Thursday’s Expected Starting Pitchers
| Rank | Pitcher | Matchup |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corbin Burnes | @ STL |
| 2 | Lance Lynn | vs. HOU |
| 3 | Max Fried | vs. MIA |
| 4 | Kevin Gausman | vs. COL |
| 5 | Cristian Javier | @ TEX |
| 6 | Walker Buehler | vs. OAK |
| 7 | Pablo Lopez | @ ATL |
| 8 | Patrick Corbin | vs. NYM |
| 9 | JA Happ | @ TOR |
| 10 | Kwang Hyun Kim | vs. MIL |
| 11 | Dallas Keuchel | @ CLE |
| 12 | Kris Bubic | vs. DET |
| 13 | David Peterson | @ WAS |
| 14 | Triston McKenzie | vs. CWS |
| 15 | Alec Mills | @ PIT |
| 16 | Martin Perez | vs. BAL |
| 17 | Robbie Ray | vs. NYY |
| 18 | Mike Fiers | @ LAD |
| 19 | Alex Cobb | @ BOS |
| 20 | Chad Kuhl | vs. CHC |
| 21 | Chi Chi Gonzalez | @ SF |
| 22 | Michael Fulmer | @ KC |
Friday’s Starting Pitchers
Friday’s Expected Starting Pitchers
| Rank | Pitcher | Matchup |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Carrasco | vs. PIT |
| 2 | Clayton Kershaw | vs. LAA |
| 3 | Yu Darvish | @ CWS |
| 4 | Jack Flaherty | @ MIL |
| 5 | Max Scherzer | vs. NYM |
| 6 | Charlie Morton | vs. PHI |
| 7 | Hyun Jin Ryu | vs. BAL |
| 8 | Jose Urquidy | @ TEX |
| 9 | Ian Anderson | vs. BOS |
| 10 | Chris Bassitt | vs SEA |
| 11 | Sandy Alcantara | @ NYY |
| 12 | Deivi Garcia | vs MIA |
| 13 | Rich Hill | vs. CIN |
| 14 | Chris Paddack | @ SF |
| 15 | Daniel Ponce de Leon | vs. MIL |
| 16 | Tyler Mahle | @ MIN |
| 17 | Antonio Senzatela | @ ARI |
| 18 | Andrew Heaney | @ LAD |
| 19 | Spencer Turnbull | @ KC |
| 20 | Mitch Keller | @ CLE |
| 21 | Yusei Kikuchi | @ OAK |
| 22 | Josh Lindblom | vs. STL |
| 23 | Brad Keller | vs. DET |
| 24 | Vince Velasquez | @ TB |
| 25 | Alex Young | vs. COL |
| 26 | Rick Porcello | @ WAS |
| 27 | Luke Weaver | vs. COL |
| 28 | Tyler Anderson | vs. SD |
| 29 | Dylan Cease | vs. CHC |
| 30 | Kyle Cody | vs. HOU |
| 31 | Jeff Samardzija | @ SD |
| 32 | Jorge Lopez | @ TOR |
| 33 | Luis Patino | vs. SF |
| 34 | Brent Suter | @ STL |
| 35 | Chris Mazza | @ ATL |
| 36 | TBD COL | @ ARI |
Saturday’s Starting Pitchers
Saturday’s Expected Starting Pitchers
| Rank | Pitcher | Matchup |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacob deGrom | @ WAS |
| 2 | Dinelson Lamet | @ SF |
| 3 | Aaron Civale | vs. PIT |
| 4 | Brandon Woodruff | @ STL |
| 5 | Lance McCullers | @ TEX |
| 6 | Luis Castillo | @ MIN |
| 7 | Jesus Luzardo | @ SEA |
| 8 | German Marquez | @ ARI |
| 9 | Adam Wainwright | vs. MIL |
| 10 | Tony Gonsolin | vs. LAA |
| 11 | Joe Musgrove | @ CLE |
| 12 | Mike Minor | vs. SEA |
| 13 | Ryan Yarbrough | vs. PHI |
| 14 | John Means | @ TOR |
| 15 | Jordan Montgomery | vs. MIA |
| 16 | Michael Pineda | vs. CIN |
| 17 | Dane Dunning | vs. CHC |
| 18 | Taijuan Walker | vs. BAL |
| 19 | Justus Sheffield | vs. OAK |
| 20 | Matthew Boyd | @ KC |
| 21 | Justin Dunn | @ OAK |
| 22 | Madison Bumgarner | vs. COL |
| 23 | Kyle Gibson | vs. HOU |
| 24 | Tanner Houck | @ ATL |
| 25 | Kyle Wright | vs. BOS |
| 26 | Johnny Cueto | vs. SD |
| 27 | Jon Lester | @ CWS |
| 28 | Trevor Rogers | @ NYY |
| 29 | Anibal Sanchez | vs. NYM |
| 30 | Carlos Hernandez | vs. DET |
| 31 | Adonis Medina | @ TB |
| 32 | Julio Teheran | @ LAD |
Sunday’s Starting Pitchers
Sunday’s Expected Starting Pitchers
| Rank | Pitcher | Matchup |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shane Bieber | vs. PIT |
| 2 | Framber Valdez | @ TEX |
| 3 | Dylan Bundy | @ LAD |
| 4 | Sonny Gray | @ MIN |
| 5 | Jose Berrios | vs. CIN |
| 6 | Zack Wheeler | @ TB |
| 7 | Brady Singer | vs. DET |
| 8 | Dustin May | vs. LAA |
| 9 | Frankie Montas | vs. SEA |
| 10 | Zach Davies | @ SF |
| 11 | Kyle Freeland | @ ARI |
| 12 | Seth Lugo | @ WAS |
| 13 | Keegan Akin | @ TOR |
| 14 | Tarik Skubal | @ KC |
| 15 | Marco Gonzales | @ OAK |
| 16 | Caleb Smith | vs. COL |
| 17 | Drew Smyly | vs. SD |
| 18 | Brett Anderson | @ STL |
| 19 | Matt Shoemaker | vs. BAL |
| 20 | Steven Brault | @ CLE |
| 21 | Austin Gomber | vs. MIL |
| 22 | Reynaldo Lopez | vs. CHC |
| 23 | Austin Voth | vs. NYM |
| 24 | Nick Pivetta | @ ATL |
| 25 | Jose Urena | @ NYY |
| 26 | Josh Fleming | vs. PHI |
| 27 | Jordan Lyles | vs. HOU |
| 28 | Huascar Ynoa | vs. BOS |
| 29 | Michael King | vs. MIA |
| 30 | Adbert Alzolay | @ CWS |
Just in time for setting weekly lineups for championship week! love your work.
this week im starting bieber, davies, sixto, plesac, singer, marquez, gausman, framber, and burnes.
Those were all solid options for this week but are kwang kim and akin (2 starts) worth starting over any of the guys i mentioned above? Im in h2h points.
Hey, thanks man!
I’d get two starts of Akin in there…maybe over Sixto.
Feels weird to say, but two starts are often vastly better than one.
thanks! skubal is another available two starter, could you elaborate why you like akin more than skubal?
I think Akin has a sturdier floor, but Skubal with a tinge more upside. Skubal’s fastball was as good as we’ve seen last time, I’m not sure that’ll repeat.
Love the site and podcast! In a weekly H2H points league, rank these: Deivi Garcia, Smyly (2 starts), Brubaker (2 starts?), Caleb Smith (2 starts), Alec Mills. Thanks man!
Man that’s close.
I’d rank it as:
Brubaker > Smith > Deivi > Smyly.
Two starts are more valuable than one, but we just don’t know how much Smyly is going to actually pitch.
Also, this is assuming Brubaker gets that Sunday start, which I currently have as Brault.
Smith is a bigger upside play over Brubaker, FWIW. Brubaker is a little safer if he gets both.
Ughh I know, so much uncertainty! Thanks so much for your reply and for all you do with the site.
So you think Snell & Nola are done after Tuesday starts? ESPN shows Nola @ TB Sunday, but only shows Snell for Tuesday. Thanks for the great help all season!
It’s likely they get skipped over to prepare for the Playoffs.
Shane Bieber could be getting the same treatment.
I’m in the championship of my points league and trying to figure out who to start as my SP5?
Mahle vs MIL
Freeland @ SF and ARI
Lugo vs TB and @ WSH
I’d go Lugo there and favor the two starts over Mahle.
Do you have Pablo over Happ on Thursday? How confident are you in either of them? (Love the Pod and site as well!) Thanks Nick!
Do you think deGrom gets skipped on saturday, or Gray on Sunday?
Skubal or Brubaker for this week?
This is so much more useful to list by day, as opposed to by pitcher. ??
ESPN projects Alex Young to start vs TEX Wednesday…if he does, what tier would he fall into?
I’d still make that a yellow tier, he’s no lock to take advantage of the Rangers.
Only two moves left for the week:
Streamer
Akin@ Bos & @ Tor, C. Smith vs Tex and Colo, Eovaldi vs Balt. or Bubic vs Det. Means @ Tor or Miils @ Pitt.
Like the two starts for Akin and Smith. but don’t want to wreck ratio’s
Leagues does QS and is Yahoo H2H. Playing for 3rd place.
Thank you
I think Means and Bubic are the two safest ones there.
Hey there Nick, this is a great list!
12 Team Roto at top of ERA and Whip and looking keep ratios intact while getting some decent Ks
Which start would you prioritize, Urquidy or Gausman?
Urquidy is the safer start there. Good luck!
I have Cole, Berrios, and Gray all “projected” to go on Sunday… I think there’s a chance we see starts from none of them – your thoughts?
No way Cole pitches – Yankees may throw him a bullpen that day? Just to keep him fresh. But I wouldn’t expect them to throw him a full start with playoffs starting just 2 days later, giving him either 1-2 days rest depending if they throw him game 1 or game 2 of the WC round
Nick this is some awesome stuff! This is my first year listening to you and it’s been a game changer. Thanks for all you hard work!
I need some help, I need to start one more pitcher and my best bet is one on Saturday. My league is a points league and you get extra points for quality starts. The four pitchers I’m looking at at Musgrove, Pineda, Montgomery, or Means. Any help would be awesome.
Thanks again you guys have been great!!!!
Hey man, thanks for checking us out!
Good luck this weekend, I’d go with Musgrove, but I think you should be okay with all four.
YOU GOTS THIS
Frankie Montas just became available do you like him better on Sunday over Musgrove? I’m looking for the best chance for a win and qs. You’re the man nick.
Do you think there is a chance Bauer doesn’t start on Sunday? I’m thinking about dropping Gray for Gausman and Cole for Javier. Thoughts?
Hey Nick, THANKS for all this info. I’m nervous about today’s CMart start. Got burned last week when I trusted him to nail the Pirates, but he stunk (3 IP, 1 K, 2 WHIP). I need K’s but have to protect ratios… I’m so confused!
8 hours later… So much for my confusion. CMart left us with a ‘no doubter’ tonight.
I am not falling for him next year, I am not falling for him next year, I am not……
Also, I’m very reluctant to roll with Bubic vs. DET Thursday. Check out what DET has done vs LHP as well as what they have done vs LHP in road games. Surprisingly, they’re KILLING IT. Team BA of .316 and .333 with wRC+ of 138 and 159. WOW! Whooda thunk it?
Bubic was one of my main options in one league, but now… eeeesh. Crap.
Love the site. Have used it all season to lead me to first place and championship this week.
Dropping Clevinger after his injury. Gausman or Javier for tomorrow to start? Had both in previous weeks but dropped to stream others in the semifinals.
Thanks
I was wondering if I could get your opinion on two pickups. I’m currently in a really tight race in my points league.
I’m looking to pickup two SP. They are awarded points under the following scheme: 6 points for a win, 4 points for a quality start, 1 point for a K, 2 points per IP, and -3 points for each ER
The candidates I’m looking at are Morton, Happ, Hill, Pineda and Sheffield. Looking to pickup two of them.
How would you rank them?
Love this website! Been doing fantasy baseball for a long time and this is by far best place to get fantasy advice.
Im in a points league and have to pick one start between Alcantara, Yarbrough, Mahle, and Means. Can’t decide so any help would be much appreciated!
Thanks!
Will this be updated for schedule changes?