Welcome back to Buy & Sell, where this week’s theme is… I may have made some mistakes! That’s okay, that’s life as an aggressive fantasy player. I found what works for me, and I admit my call last week to drop Brandon Lowe was more rooted in frustration than facts and quickly took the L on that and argued against former me. Remember as your FAAB may be whittling down that you don’t have to make a roster move just because some of your players are stagnating, or you’ll end up like me who unwisely cut Angel Martinez in a dynasty format or Alex Canario in a 15-teamer to get this week’s hot hitter, only for it to immediately backfire and force me to do damage control the following week. Live and learn. What’s important is just try to not repeat that mistake too many times. Anyway, on to the list!
BUY
10-team
Jarren Duran (OF, Boston Red Sox)
Those who drafted him in the top 20 picks might think he’s stunk their team up, but the locals know how to appreciate this Jarren Durian. This may seem like a weird one in that he’s likely rostered everywhere, but I think most teams rostering him are a bit disappointed with him despite the strong stolen bases due to only having 4 homers and pacing for 12 on the season after hitting 21 last year. It’s entirely possible he simply overperformed his power last year, but I think he is still evolving and hasn’t even reached his final form.
It’s true that his xBA of .278 and xSLG of .424 are right in line with his actual numbers (.277 AVG and .430 SLG%) which are both slightly down from last year (all from the power). But he’s hitting the ball considerably harder, highlighted by a ball he recently hit an astounding 118 mph, a momentous jump from his previous best set last year at 114 mph. FOUR miles an hour! His HardHit% of 49% and Bat Speed are also up, and he’s also hitting at a slightly higher launch angle (12 degrees, previously 10). The big culprit this year is a HR/FB of just 6% after a 12% last year, and given he had a 10% HR/FB in 2023 before the breakout and he’s hitting much harder now, this seems like bad luck that won’t last, especially in the summer heat.
Trade for him like he has a third rounder’s value and you’ll likely find a team willing to take your offer seriously since stolen bases are a surplus, and his line at a glance doesn’t look too different from Victor Scott II’s. But I’d even be willing to pay full price hoping that he goes gangbusters with the homers, likely aided in run production by the call-up of Roman Anthony (who you should snatch up immediately if still on your wire for some reason). Target in all leagues.
Chandler Simpson (OF, Tampa Bay Rays)
He may have been dropped in some leagues merely for being exactly who he was advertised as being but nothing more. After a while, you expect a lot from a player hitting zero homers, and a few games being benched and used as a pinch runner at the beginning of the month made some nervous, especially as his batting average dipped down to .260. But ever since, Simpson has been zipping through like Bart on a skateboard, hitting .324/.342/.324 with 7 SB in 37 AB over the last two weeks. That’s more stolen bases than his runs or RBI! He still has “only” 14 SB with his .287 AVG on the season, but keep in mind that he’s pulled this off in only 115 AB (33 G), which is less than half of the playing time of his competitors.
Now that he seems to have more guaranteed PT (thanks to DeLuca having a setback and Mangum staying mangled), and now that he’s figured out how to get his slaps in like a custom game of GoldenEye64 (no Oddjob), I expect him to dial up the aggressiveness. Even though he got a late start, I would not be at all surprised to see Chandler to make headlines by challenging the SB totals of 2024 Elly De La Cruz or 2023 Ronald Acuna. Just, like, it still may be with 0 homers and perhaps the highest percentage of singles out of total hits in several decades.
Brandon Lowe (2B, Tampa Bay Rays)
I was WRONG, okay? I had meant what I said when I wrote it and had cut Lowe in my 12 team RotoWire OC… only to realize the error of my ways and impatience, and managed to be the high bidder the next Sunday (fortunately his performance for me has helped with the shame). With Steinbrenner field as his home park, expect the homers to keep flying, and be enough to cover up his flaws, especially at such a weak position.
12-team
Chase Meidroth (2B/SS, Chicago White Sox)
If you’re looking for Temu OBP league Nico Hoerner at middle infield, this may be your guy. He’s been scalding hot lately, raising his batting average after a post-injury mini-slump from the .240s up to .286 with 1 HR and 8 SB… and all he needed to get hot was for me to cut him in my AL-only league a few weeks back. Oops. The power still is pretty terrible, but he could hit .300/.400/.400 with 20+ stolen bases and a handful of homers, and sadly that’s preferable to a lot of other second baseman right now. Add in shallow 15-teamers and 12-team OBP.
Marcelo Mayer (2B/SS, Boston Red Sox)
Mayer is exactly the kind of post-hype prospect who can, much like Schrodinger’s cat, be overrated and underrated at the same time. While he’s not the high-end blue-chip prospect we thought a few years back, he’s still just 22 and hit .271 with 9 HR in 193 PA in Triple-A to earn the call-up. Well, okay, massive injuries and slumps earned him the call-up. It’s still too early to tell much, but it seems he can be a sneaky OBP guy with moderate power and chip-in speed, which can be nifty roster spackle for 15-teamers looking for replacements.
Kody Clemens (1B/2B/OF, Minnesota Twins)
He now qualifies at outfield! He’s deserved more playing time than he’s received, but you still need to get this guy. Out of nowhere, but he’s simply hitting the ball too hard and qualifying at too many positions for this to miss out on, even in 12-team formats as a utility bench stash.
15-team
Alex Canario (OF, Pittsburgh Pirates)
He’s got excellent raw power (112 max EV), he’s been on a tear lately (hitting .333 with 2 HR and 2 SB in 63 AB over the past 3 weeks), and Statcast thinks he deserves more power (.501 xSLG vs .374 actual SLG%). The Ks are a concern, but the floor is worth the upside in 15-teamers.
Eric Wagaman (1B/3B/OF, Miami Marlins)
He’s been disappointing people who got a little too gung-ho early on, but don’t let a tail wag a dog, and don’t let an Eric Wagaman. Even though he only has 4 homers and a .247 AVG in 201 PA, raising questions if he can even eclipse double digits, Statcast still vouches for him saying he’s deserved a much more palatable .283 xBA with a .469 xSLG. While he lacks a stand-out skill, he’s roughly average or above average in everything, with a good raw combo of plus bat speed and plus squared up% to back it.
You may be tempted to cut in 15-teamers for something flashier, but with his multi-position eligibility and high floor, he can be the steady rock for your roster much like Matt Vierling was for team’s last year before his injury, and perhaps even a bit better with an extra position.
Jorge Mateo (2B/SS, Baltimore Orioles)
You need stolen bases? Mateo will get you stolen bases. Lots of them. Just maybe nothing else. Given he’s two games from OF eligibility, and he’s hit better since his return with 5 SB this week and 7 in 21 AB since his return, take as a flier hoping for lightning feet in a bottle, with still a chance of a spurt of power or average. As of Wednesday he’s 0% rostered, so not even in AL-only formats. That should change in a jiffy.
Deep Leagues
Ronny Simon (2B, Miami Marlins)
I know he just had a three-error game and ran off the field crying. I guess Ronnie was a small-time boy with a big-time frown, because when the ball came to him he took a different path, lost his way. I know, that reference was a Load of garbage. But Simon has intrigued me in a limited sample with his 13% K% and BB% with a passable 7% and 109 mph max EV. As long as he can bounce back from his bad day, he does seem to have the inside track at 2B while Edwards is out, and I think he offers more offense than Sanoja, though less than Otto Lopez. At least keep tabs on his situation, since in some CBS leagues he has SS and OF eligibility, so if you need PT, don’t let Simon slip from your memory.
Henry Davis (C, Pittsburgh Pirates)
He was looking on the outside in, but now Davis given the team a Henry-son to put him back in. The 25-year-old has had a startling fall from top prospectdom after an disappointing debut with a rotten sequel, but even though he’s only hitting .222 with 2 HR in 62 PA, he’s figuring the majors out. He still has the raw power with high-end 75 mph bat speed, and while that hasn’t translated yet into game power (22% HardHit%) he is at least making good contact (16% K%) and has a strong .276 xBA. Both these rates will probably regress towards the middle, but he could be a solid .235 15 homer guy right now with potential for more. That’s what we had hoped for for Joey Bart, but Bart still only has 1 dinger with a .240 AVG and 90 wRC+ in 170 PA. I think Davis is a smart deep league dynasty stash since I demand… USURPATION!
Sam Haggerty (OF, Texas Rangers)
He has a few weeks in nearly every season where he suddenly catches fire and racks up a bunch of stolen bases before getting a leg injury (usually a calf or hammy) and fading into oblivion. He has a starting role right now, and this could be one of those weeks! While it’s too early to rely on Statcast, his xBA over .300 indicates he’s been hitting the ball better than it seems on the surface, isn’t striking out, and the rest of the lineup is doing nothing to overtake him, so let’s get an old-timey musician to play the walkup music for Haggerty on a Sam Hurdy-Gurdy. Yes, that is a real instrument, I swear.
SELL
10-team
Christian Yelich (OF, Milwaukee Brewers)
Yes, I know, saying sell the guy who is pacing for nearly a 30/3o season sounds more bananas than Savannah. I know. But I managed to sell him a few weeks ago in my dynasty league for Zach Neto, so his perceived trade value is high. There’s something psychologically just so much more sexy about 10 HR/10 SB than 9 HR/9 SB, isn’t there? Take advantage of it!
He’s actually been one of the biggest decliners in xwOBA over his past 100 PA, with just a .268 xwOBA after he had a .346 xwOBA in his previous 100 PA (though an improved .299 rolling xwOBA over his last 50 PA. You might assume that the average is just bad luck and will regress to career levels, but there are some real causes for concern. One is that the normally grounder-prone Yelich is subterranean with a -0.3 launch angle for the season, thanks to a 63% GB% that even makes Yandy blush. But he’s also striking out way more, backed by a notable drop in his contact rate to 74% and a career-worst 12% SwStr%. For a hitter who is supposed to provide average and OBP, that’s not what you want, and his .296 OBP is also terrible. But the REAL reason I want to sell him is that even if he does fix these problems and figure it out, that’s probably when he’s going to get hurt.
Again, do not drop him, since he’s still hitting the ball hard and I’d still rather have this than the all-speed profile of Luis Robert. But I think you’d be wise to test the market for trading now, especially in an OBP league where people are more likely to overrate his contributions, missing the fact that his 10% BB% this year is also nothing special.
12-team
Ben Rice (1B, New York Yankees)
It’s not fair, because I still think Rice is a great hitter, but he’s sitting against both lefties and righties now, and that’s no bueno. The unexpected rise of Grisham has really crowded him out of the roster, and it’ll be worse when Stanton and Chisholm return, especially with the old DJ spinning again too. Note he’s one game from C eligibility in many leagues, and he could have a resurgence in value with a trade to a different MLB team. But some owners may not realize his playing time situation due to the strong season stats and the fact he just homered, so sell now before it’s obvious and his trade value dips, unless you have a fly on the wall of the GM’s office and know something I don’t. Hope your trade is at least 6/10, 9/10 with Rice.
Nick Castellanos (OF, Philadelphia Phillies)
No, there’s no smoking gun for why he’s a sell, though I did manage to sell 3 years of him in a dynasty for 1 of Chris Sale. He’s just… pretty boring. His .267 xBA and .429 xSLG this year are league average, and he’s just giving enough power/speed or run production to seem worth it in 12-teamers anymore, with name value doing most of the lifting. He’s pacing for 12 homers and 6 stolen bases, if you want to know what I mean. Hey that reminds me of someone! Melky Cabrera, anyone? Not even peak Melky. His rolling xwOBA has also been steadily declining and has been below league average since May 22nd. See if you can trade him but I’d much rather have other players who aren’t getting 12-team respect they deserve like Ryan O’Hearn or Jordan Beck.
15-team
Jordan Lawlar (SS, Arizona Diamondbacks)
Oh no. Not again. I’m glad I didn’t bid high on him in any leagues, since even in a best-case scenario, he was going to sit a few times a week, but it is kind of funny that we made such a big deal about him tearing the cover off the ball in the minors, when his minors production has always been strong but just not translated to the majors. It’s still early, with only 21 PA, but a 44% K% and 0 hits total might be enough for the contending D-Backs to translate his minors heat to the bench, in needs warming.
Matthew Lugo (OF, Los Angeles Angels)
Well, he petered out faster than one of those Fourth of July sparklers, but that was a fun week with some silly looking Statcast numbers, wasn’t it? That 38% K% was just too much to overcome, but I do think his power/speed combo makes him interesting as a stash in dynasty. But in redraft, he’s a backup now.
Deep Leagues
Jake Rogers (C, Detroit Tigers)
With the 30-year-old injury returnee hitting just .160 in 25 PA and his batterymate Dillon Dingler hitting quite well, it looks like Detroit is no longer Mr. Rogers’ neighborhood. Since Jake’s return last week, he’s only had 7 AB, with nary a hit in any of them. We’ll always remember that one decent fantasy season in 2023, Jakey ol’ boy ol’ pal.
