We are now a month into the season, so it’s about time we start taking some underlying numbers a little more seriously. One thing that sticks out is just how dominant Mason Miller’s start has been, especially in relation to the rest of the closers on the list. Miller ranks 1st in K%, K-BB%, xFIP, SIERA, Z-O%, SwStr%. CSW% and is third in Stuff+, only trailing Emmanuel Clase and Jhoan Duran. It’s not surprising to see Miller at the top of the list this early on, as he got off to a similar start last year as well. The question is, will he be able to sustain this for a full season? Jeff Hoffman is another nice surprise, as he ranks second in K-BB% (37.5%) and SIERA (1.18) and deserves to be in this top tier for now.
On the flip side, Devin Williams, who has obviously struggled mightily this month, has now been removed from the closer role for the time being. He should get the job back eventually (it’s in everyone’s best interest), but Williams’ K-BB% (4.2%) ranks 39/40 amongst relievers on the list this week, with only Ryan Pressly behind him and his xFIP of 5.47 actually ranks dead last as it is somehow higher than Pressly’s and Carlos Estévez’s. The good news, and why I’m still optimistic in the long run, is that Williams’ stuff hasn’t evaporated; he still holds a 5.30 PLV and 104 Stuff+ (down but not terrible). The changeup has actually looked better than it did last year, yet the whiff rate has been cut in half, going from 48.8% to 24.1%. The fastball even has better shape this year (albeit with lower velocity) and a better zone rate, but it has resulted in fewer strikes, which leads me to believe this is an obvious example of a pitcher tipping his pitches. It may have started in game one against his former team, who would know about his tells better than anyone, although it may have been actually discovered last postseason and has just carried into the new year.
Notes
- With Blake Treinen on the IL, Tanner Scott appears to be trending towards being the Dodgers’ sole closer at least for now. Even if Kirby Yates or maybe even Evan Phillips were to take the occasional save from Scott, he should remain seeing the bulk of the save chances at the very least. Scott has yet to walk anyone this season and holds a 25.9% K-BB as a result. Through last April, Scott had walked 13 batters and held a -1.6% K-BB rate. Anyway, this situation also feels very similar to what’s happening in Philadelphia with José Alvarado, although in Alvarado’s case, he really only has another lefty to contend with in Matt Strahm.
- Aroldis Chapman only has four saves, but he’s been fantastic when he has pitched, so it’s hard to push him any lower than 10th on this list at the moment. Chapman’s 30.1% Z-O% and 23.8% SwStr% rank second amongst closers, and he’s top five in most other categories with the exception of xFIP. There will be outings where he cant find the strikezone and he may give up save chances occasionally to Justin Slaten, but Chapman seems to have picked up where he left off in the second half of 2024, much to the relief of the Red Sox as Liam Hendriks has not been able to get back to his old self.
- Emmanuel Clase is off to a poor start, but assuming his shoulder injury isn’t anything serious, I remain hopeful he turns things around. Clase’s 37.8% Z-O% is 95th percentile, and his 128 Stuff+ is the highest amongst all closers. He would likely benefit from slightly less usage this season, so it still might make sense to use Cade Smith occasionally in save chances, but Clase should ok moving forward, just maybe not the guy you were hoping for when you drafted him.
- Finnegan has gotten off to a strong start this season, so let’s ride that and see where it goes. The fastball has always been a good offering, I just worry about the lack of secondaries catching up to him. The fastball has lost 1.3 MPH this year, but the shape is better at least. With a 1.45 WHIP and 14.6% K-BB rate, I can’t see Finnegan ever entering the top 10, but that should be fine, as you weren’t drafting him as your top closer anyway.
- I’m not fully panicking on Ryan Helsley or Raisel Iglesias yet, but yeah, I am definitely concerned. Helsley’s a bottom 4 closer on this list in terms of K-BB (4.5%), xFIP (4.36), and SIERA (4.89,) but at least the stuff still seems to be somewhat intact (118 Stuff+). Iglesias is more of a bottom 10 closer right now across the board, and the CSW (27.1%), Stuff+ (97), and PLV (4.96) remain the lowest in his career. If you roster them, you are probably just holding for now and hoping for the best, that they turn things around. I don’t think they are buy-low options like Emmanuel Clase or Devin Williams might be.
- Tier 5 has Tier 2/3 upside (Tier 1 in Devin Williams’ case), but I want to wait a week before pushing them past Tier 4 options. David Bednar has been a top 10 reliever since returning from AAA, as he’s commanding his secondary stuff better. We shall see if that lasts and how hitters adjust to his new approach. Will Vest has been amazing this year and definitely needs to be rostered in most formats. If I knew he was the Tigers’ sole closer, he’d be in the 10-15 range right now. Emilio Pagán is close to moving up as well, and while I do worry about his home run tendencies, especially in that ballpark during the warmer months, the Reds are kind of running out of suitable alternatives on the current roster
| Rank | Pitcher | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason MillerT1 | +4 |
| 2 | Josh Hader | - |
| 3 | Jeff Hoffman | +6 |
| 4 | Andrés Muñoz | +2 |
| 5 | Edwin Díaz | -2 |
| 6 | Félix BautistaT2 | +1 |
| 7 | Tanner Scott | +7 |
| 8 | Aroldis Chapman | +11 |
| 9 | José Alvarado | +6 |
| 10 | Robert Suarez | +1 |
| 11 | Jhoan DuranT3 | -3 |
| 12 | Emmanuel Clase | -11 |
| 13 | Kenley Jansen | - |
| 14 | Kyle Finnegan | +7 |
| 15 | Ryan WalkerT4 | +2 |
| 16 | Trevor Megill | +2 |
| 17 | Ryan Helsley | -7 |
| 18 | Raisel Iglesias | -6 |
| 19 | Pete Fairbanks | +1 |
| 20 | David BednarT5 | +4 |
| 21 | Will Vest | +6 |
| 22 | Emilio Pagán | +4 |
| 23 | Luke Weaver | +UR |
| 24 | Devin Williams | -20 |
| 25 | Carlos EstévezT6 | -3 |
| 26 | Ryan Pressly | -3 |
| 27 | Shelby Miller | +UR |
| 28 | Luke Jackson | -3 |
| 29 | Cade SmithT7 | +6 |
| 30 | Justin Slaten | - |
| 31 | Porter Hodge | +7 |
| 32 | Lucas Erceg | +2 |
| 33 | Dennis Santana | -4 |
| 34 | Tommy Kahnle | -6 |
| 35 | Camilo Doval | +UR |
| 36 | Kevin Ginkel | +UR |
| 37 | Kirby YatesT8 | -4 |
| 38 | Robert Garcia | -7 |
| 39 | Matt Strahm | -2 |
| 40 | Calvin Faucher | +UR |
