Slate Details
DK – Early slate (5 games) – starts at 1:05 p.m. EDT | Main slate (8 games) – starts at 7:07 p.m. EDT
FD – Early slate (6 games) – starts at 12:35 p.m. EDT | Main slate (8 games) – starts at 7:07 p.m. EDT
Weather Impact
No definitive PPDs out there, but we do have some questionable games. We have some late-game showers that the teams should be able to play through in LAD@BAL, MIL@PHI, and DET@KC.
The one I am concerned about is HOU@COL as the only thing certainty is that the game will be impacted by rain. How much? When? For how long? These are questions I just don’t know the answer to so approach them with caution.
Pitching
Aaron Civale has flipped a switch since returning to the Guardians rotation and today he faces the lowly, lowly Pirates. That’s an automatic start for me.
Speaking of lowly teams, the 26-71 Athletics face Red Sox starter Brayan Bello, who has really found his stride over the last couple of months. If he could hold the Rangers to 2 ER over 7 innings on July 5th, I imagine he will make light work of Oakland.
Speaking of light, are we finally seeing it at the end of the tunnel for Sandy Alcantara? He has allowed just 3 ERs over his last two starts, although they were all solo HRs. Now he faces a Cardinals lineup that is catching fire in that St. Louis heat.
We have faced this same question with Sandy almost all season: Will we see Cy Young Sandy or the ineffective version that occupied the Marlins mound this season? At the price we are currently seeing him at, I am perfectly fine running him out and praying for Cy Young Sandy.
For the main slate, we have an intriguing matchup between upstart Touki Toussaint and veteran Justin Verlander. It’s
a tough call with the state of these two offenses but I am going to go with the more proven commodity in Verlander. The White Sox have scored 24 runs over their last three games but they were also shut out in 2 of the three games prior to that stretch.
I don’t think we will see the 6 walks that we did in Verlander’s last start against the Dodgers, seeing as Chicago has been walking at a 5.3% rate over the last two weeks compared to Los Angeles’ 12.4%.
Eduardo Rodriguez continues to be one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball and today he gets a golden matchup against the Royals. Much like Civale against the Pirates, this is an automatic start for me.
Finally, we round things off with another intriguing pitching matchup in Minnesota at Seattle, with Kenta Maeda facing Luis Castillo. I am not saying don’t play Castillo, but for his price, I think I might prefer Maeda in this game.
The Twins’ offense has been performing at a much higher level than the Mariners’ of late. Also, I am not overly concerned with his last start, where he walked 4 against the Athletics and didn’t make it past the 4th. I think Maeda will look more like the pitcher that had 21 strikeouts while allowing just 3 ERs in 17 innings over his previous three starts.
Hitting
The Cleveland Guardians lineup has exploded against Pirates pitching over the first two games of this series with 21 runs and 6 HRs.
Soft-tossing Rich Hill has a propensity for giving up long HRs when he lives the ball out over the plate and I expect guys like Amed Rosario, José Ramírez, Josh Naylor, and Josh Bell to take advantage of that. Steven Kwan, Andrés Giménez, and Myles Straw also make interesting options for their on-base and stolen base abilities.
The Rays will be tossing out Zack Littell and the bullpen against the Rangers and that is a recipe for disaster. Texas hasn’t been as hot of late as they were earlier in the year but there is still a lot of danger in that lineup.
Hopefully, Marcus Semien’s HR on Tuesday will break him out of the funk he’s been in because Corey Seager and Adolis García have been crushing it lately.
Don’t sleep on Travis Jankowski’s speed and incredible .331/.423/.428 slash line. And you know how much I love Jonah Heim at catcher.
Ken Waldichuk will be serving up meatballs against Boston so find a way to stack a bunch of Red Sox in your lineup as they have been hot lately.
Triston Casas, Rafael Devers, Masataka Yoshida, Jarren Duran, and Justin Turner are all in the top 50 hitters in wRC+ over the last two weeks and I expect that to continue today. Oh and don’t forget about Adam Duvall as I did, he’s back from the IL and smacking the ball like he never left.
Graham Ashcraft has turned it around of late, but I am still a little skeptical. Now he faces a lefty-heavy Giants lineup at Great American Ball Park and I can see a regression back to his previous self.
LaMonte Wade Jr. is perfect in the leadoff spot and he should be followed up by a solid lefty trio of Joc Pederson, Michael Conforto, and Mike Yastrzemski. Either Patrick Bailey or Blake Sabol are solid young options at catcher as well, just make sure you play whichever one is starting.
On the other side, Ross Stripling hasn’t exactly been lights out this year and the Reds have some impressive bats of their own. You can go with young studs like Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Spencer Steer, and Jonathan India.
Or you can go with the feisty veterans like T.J. Friedl, Tyler Stephenson, Jake Fraley or Joey Votto. Hard to go wrong either way.
The Diamondbacks and Braves combined for 29 runs last night, and while I don’t see Arizona replicating that against Charlie Morton, the Braves might score even more against Ryne Nelson who allowed 9 hits and 7 ERs in 3 innings earlier this month against the Mets.
If you’re gonna play an Atlanta stack you might as well go with the top guys Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Matt Olson, and Sean Murphy. If you want to save some money, I have been very impressed with Orlando Arcia this season and I think he makes a great play as well.
Hitter Pricing 7-19-23