DK – Main slate (11 games) – starts 1:35 p.m. EDT
FD – Main slate (13 games) – starts 1:35 p.m. EDT
Clear skies, full speed ahead.
Another beautiful day of baseball for the last Sunday of baseball in August. The season is flying by so enjoy it while you can.
Jack Flaherty returns for the Orioles after being scratched from his last start. Today he faces the Colorado Rockies in Baltimore and I like this as a nice bounceback situation for Flaherty. Certainly a bit of risk here but the upside is there for a quality outing.
Flaherty’s old team, the St. Louis Cardinals, are a straight-up disaster right now and lucky Aaron Nola gets to face them on Sunday. This has not been Nola’s best season, but he pitched well in his last start against the Giants and today’s matchup presents an opportunity to stack some quality starts together going into the final month of the season.
How about the second half Yusei Kikuchi is having? Prior to his last start, which was a bit of a hiccup against the Orioles, Kikuchi hadn’t allowed more than one ER in six consecutive starts. Now he faces the second-worst offense against LHP (79 wRC+) in the Cleveland Guardians, who also have just an 85 wRC+ over the last two weeks. All in on Kikuchi today.
If you want a sleeper for today, I think I’d have to go with Zack Littell. His numbers probably aren’t going to wow you, but he gets an excellent matchup against a Yankees team that has produced a 28.7 K% and 81 wRC+ over the last two weeks and really just doesn’t care anymore.
While the matchup between Jordan Montgomery and Bailey Ober does have some intrigue, I’m just not sure I trust them completely against the offenses of Texas and Minnesota. Go with Montgomery if you have to, but I am probably going to avoid this game and just admire it from afar.
Finally, Luis Castillo is just quietly humming along as one of the best pitchers in the game. This afternoon he gets a matchup with Kansas City, who actually knocked him around a bit for nine hits and four ERs over seven innings on August 16th. With a little revenge on the mind, Castillo looks to be an even better option today for the Mariners.
Pitcher Pricing 8-27-2023
The two hottest-hitting teams in baseball right now both have excellent matchups today when the Phillies (142 wRC+) take on St. Louis LHP Drew Rom (4.66 PLV) and the Mariners (162 wRC+) face Kansas City RHP Alec Marsh (4.60 PLV).
Rom is a soft-tossing lefty who was bashed for eight runs (six earned) in his MLB debut against the Pirates last time out. That’s why I’m not concerned at all about the left-on-left matchups, so don’t worry about plugging Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper in your lineup as the two have combined for 10 HRs over the last two weeks. Trea Turner is finally picking it up to a somewhat decent level and Nick Castellanos, Alec Bohm, J.T. Realmuto, and Bryson Stott will look to continue their solid seasons at the dish. Over their last nine games, the Phillies are averaging 7.8 runs per game and that seems like the bare minimum that they will be scoring today.
Nobody is even close to as hot as the Mariners are over the last two weeks and that is going to continue today against Marsh, who has allowed at least one HR in each of his starts this season. The Royals have had him coming out of the bullpen lately and that hasn’t really helped matters as Oakland took him deep twice in his last outing. Seattle dumped 15 runs on Jordan Lyles and the Kansas City bullpen yesterday and I expect more of the same today.
Julio Rodríguez (261 wRC+), Teoscar Hernández (216 wRC+), and Josh Rojas (192 wRC+) are three of the hottest hitters in baseball right now and Cal Raleigh (154 wRC+) and Eugenio Suárez (148 wRC+) are not very far behind them. Cade Marlowe, Dominic Canzone, and Mike Ford all provide intriguing power from the left side when they are in the lineup. Dylan Moore and José Caballero also provide speed on the basepaths, with Moore capable of going yard. Ty France hasn’t had the best of seasons but he is a savvy hitter who should have no problem with Marsh.
Other hitters of note:
- Tampa Bay is another hot-hitting team and facing LHP Carlos Rodón today, I like the righty quartet of Yandy Díaz, Randy Arozarena, Isaac Paredes, and Harold Ramírez, who are all in the top 65 in wRC+ over the last two weeks.
- Noah Syndergaard is a shell of his former Mets self and he faces a Toronto lineup that will look to take advantage. Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and George Springer are obviously the superstars, but guys like Davis Schneider, Daulton Varsho, and Brandon Belt could have big days at modest prices.
- Ty Blach should be serving up meatballs to the Baltimore lineup today so I am looking to get guys like Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle, and Austin Hays in the lineup against the lefty.
Hitter Pricing 8-27-23