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Fantasy Baseball Out% Standouts From Week 11

Taylor Tarter presents the fantasy baseball week 11 Out% update

Taylor Tarter
Fantasy 10 Hours Ago

Below, you will find our latest Out rate update. The data has been accumulated over the course of the season and is updated as of Friday, 6/12.

Here are a few basics relating to Out rate:

  • Out% = how often a pitcher’s pitch results in an out
  • Good Out% = how many of the outs were on batted balls that had an expected batting average below .250, plus strikeouts
  • Lucky Out% = how many of the outs were on batted balls that had an xBA of .250 or higher

You can use Out rate to help you make tough decisions about your pitching staff, including whom to drop or add, and whom to trade for or away. Out rate is also a reasonably effective predictive tool, considering its modest “stickyness.” So, pitchers with multiple high Out rate pitches will tend to do better in terms of ERA, especially pitchers with high fastball Out rates.

For a little more info on the basics of Out rate, read this.

For some more specifics on good and lucky outs, read this.

And to view our Out Rate Leaderboard Google Doc, click this.

 

League Average Out Rates

 

Below are the league average out rates for each pitch type as of Friday, 6/12. This is how we measure a pitcher’s Out Rate performance.

  • Fastball – 16.6%
  • Cutter – 15.6%
  • Sinker – 17.3%
  • Splitter – 20.3%
  • Slider – 18.1%
  • Sweeper – 18%
  • Curveball – 16.6%
  • Changeup – 19%

A few notable starting pitchers sit atop the leaderboards for each pitch (min. 40 pitches thrown), including

 

Fastball Out% Highlight

 

Fastball Out Rate is an important pitch to highlight because fastballs are typically not used to generate outs. So, when a pitcher can induce outs with a fastball, it is worth noting. This is especially true when those outs are earned. Paul Skenes has the 34th-best Out rate on a fastball this season, at 18.6%, but has a 16% Good Out rate and is one of just seven starters whose Good Out rate is at least four times higher than their Lucky Out rate. For Skenes, having a fastball that can induce outs, among a plethora of other elite options, just solidifies him as one of the best pitchers in the game.

Here is a look at Skenes’ fastball according to PLV:

This data shows why Skenes’ fastball has been so effective. He throws it with elite velocity and extension. It also gets a ton of break, with above-average location. That makes it above average in terms of PLV. Another reason for his fastball success is his ability to play it off other pitches like his “splinker.” Take a look:

His fastball has essentially been unhittable this season. It has a .175 BAA, a 29% whiff rate, a 35% strikeout rate, and a 27% putaway rate. This goes to show he is not just relying on his fastball as a setup pitch or a way to generate contact for groundouts. This is a legit out pitch for him, and he uses it incredibly effectively and efficiently.

Skenes also features a changeup and sinker that grade above average in Out rate, so he has other methods of creating outs if the fastball does not do the job.

You will be hard-pressed to find a fantasy manager willing to part ways with him, but keep this in mind for next year’s drafts.

 

An Out Rate Pitcher to Target

 

Bryan Woo has had some rough outings this season, leading to a 4.28 ERA, after finishing with a sub-3 ERA in his first two seasons. Fantasy managers may be ready to jump ship, but Woo likely has better games on the way, especially considering his ability to induce outs.

Bryan Woo’s bread-and-butter throughout his career has been his fastball. This year is no different. He has used it 48% of the time, and it remains one of his better pitches. It has a .223 BAA, a 25% whiff rate, and a 23% strikeout rate. It has generated an 18.4% Out rate, with 15% being Good Outs. This means he has earned most of the outs on his fastball. PLV supports the idea that this is a dangerous pitch:

This is essentially a Quality Pitch according to PLV. Woo is able to dot his fastballs so well, with above-average velocity, and enough movement to fool batters. Take a look here:

Woo also features a sweeper and sinker with above-average out rates of 23.8% and 21.5%, respectively. Again, PLV shows the pitch quality is paying off with outs:

His sinker PLV is just below league average, while his sweeper PLV is just above. Woo’s slider has better expected numbers than actual ones, and the above-average PLV and below-average Out rate suggest there’s some kind of discrepancy – like a sequencing issue – limiting its effectiveness.

Even with some of his recent poor performances, the pitch quality is still there. Here is his PLV game score from last week:

Better things are on the way for Woo, which is reflected in his 3.7 7 xFIP and 3.58 SIERA, and makes him an excellent buy-low player in any format.

 

An Out Rate Pitcher to Avoid

 

Andrew Abbott is a starting pitcher to avoid, despite boasting a better ERA than Woo at 4.00. Abbott has not necessarily earned his ERA in the same way that Woo has earned a better ERA according to advanced metrics. One of the ways we can tell the difference is by analyzing Out rate.

Abbot only features one pitch with an above-average Out rate – his fastball, at 18.7%. Also, about a third of those outs are considered Lucky Outs, meaning he has only earned about two-thirds of the outs on his fastball. Abbot does not generate many whiffs with it, missing bats just 11% of the time. His strikeout rate on the pitch is also 11%. It is not a great groundball pitch, and has just an 11% putaway rate. Even more conventional data suggests his fastball is overperforming, considering it has a .255 BAA, but a .308 xBAA.

PLV does not love his fastball either:

His best pitch, according to pitch quality, is his sweeper. It’s got a 29% whiff rate and has been his best strikeout weapon, but it has a 16% Out rate, which is below average for a sweeper. If he used it more effectively or sequenced it better, perhaps it would be performing better as an out pitch.

Abbott is a flawed pitcher. His fastball has low pitch quality, yet somehow has generated outs, while his sweeper has high pitch quality but is not generating outs. His changeup and curveball both have low pitch quality and low Out rates. This is all worrying because Abbott just does not have a solid secondary or offspeed pitch to play off his fastball. And somehow it has worked out for him up to this point, but rostering him is a huge gamble.

Abbott’s 4.92 xFIP and 5.07 SIERA suggest his success likely will not last, and now is the time to jump ship before the ship goes down.

 

Other Out Rate Pitchers to Buy/Add

 

 

Other Out Rate Pitchers to Sell/Drop

 

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Taylor Tarter

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Taylor is an FSWA finalist, and a fantasy baseball champ that has been playing for well over a decade. Taylor is co-creator of Out%, a stat that measures how good pitches are at getting outs. You can find him @TaylorTarter on Twitter.

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