Below, you will find our latest Out% update. The data has been accumulated over the course of the season and is updated as of Friday, 4/17.
In a nutshell, here are some definitions of some terms you’ll see throughout the article
Out% = how often a pitcher’s pitch results in an out
Good Out% = how many of the outs were on batted balls that had an expected batting average over .250, plus strikeouts
Lucky Out% = how many of the outs were on batted balls that had an xBA of .250 or lower
Out rate is a useful tool, in context with other data, that can help paint a picture of a pitcher’s performance. It can also help provide guidance on which pitchers to target, drop, sit, or start, based on which pitches are working for them, and whether or not those pitches are earning their outs.
For a little more info on the basics of out rate, read this, and for some more specifics on good and lucky outs, read this. And to view our Out% Leaderboard Google Doc, click this.
League Average Out Rates
Below are the league average out rates for each pitch type as of Saturday, 4/11. This is how we measure a pitcher’s out rate performance.
- Fastball – 16.2%
- Cutter – 15.4%
- Sinker – 17.1%
- Splitter – 20.5%
- Slider – 17.6%
- Sweeper – 17.7%
- Curveball – 16.7%
- Changeup – 19.2%
A few notable starting pitchers sit atop the leaderboards for each pitch (min. 40 pitches thrown), including
- Sandy Alcantara – Fastball 29.5%
- Tomoyuki Sugano – Cutter 25.6%
- Sandy Alcantara – Sinker 31.2%
- Tomoyuki Sugano – Splitter 31.9%
- David Peterson – Slider 35.1%
- Trevor Rogers – Sweeper 31%
- Joe Ryan – Curveball 48.1%
- Clay Holmes – Changeup 32.1%
Fastball Out% Highlight
Sandy Alcantara’s fastball has been lights out. A close second in out rate is Grant Holmes, whose fastball owns a 25% out rate. It also has a 20% good-out rate, which means that nearly every out on it has been earned by Holmes.
Holmes has thrown his fastball 123 times this season, making it his second-most-used pitch behind his slider. It has been hit just three times, giving it a .091 batting average against. It has also induced a 20% whiff rate.
In his last outing, his fastball graded as his best pitch, even though the start itself earned him a C- overall grade:
Grant Holmes (ATL) allowed three earned runs over four innings against the Marlins pic.twitter.com/vbAF06O4ug
— Pitcher List Stats (@PitcherListPLV) April 14, 2026
And here he is using it to get a huge strikeout against Nolan Arenado earlier in the season:
ATL RHP Grant Holmes vs ARI (4/3)
6 IP, 1 Hits, 0 ER, 4 Ks, 40% Whiff%
Fastball: 15 IVB, 5 HB at 95 MPH
Slider: -6 IVB, -2 HB at 87 MPH
Curveball: -9 IVB, -3 HB at 84 MPH
Sinker: 8 IVB, 15 HB at 95 MPH
Changeup: 7 IVB, 12 HB at 92 MPH
Cutter: 12 IVB, -1 HB at 94 MPH pic.twitter.com/MUPDOfoopG— Baseball Unstitched (@BaseUnstitched) April 6, 2026
Although PLV grades the pitch basically league average so far this season, it has been effective and should continue to be a solid out pitch for Holmes.
His velocity and location both grade above average. And he has some decent movement on the pitch. If he can add some extension or improve the location slightly, the pitch quality could tick up. And likely, it will induce even more outs.
An Out Rate Pitcher to Target
Nolan McLean should be on everyone’s radar at this point, but he should also be a “buy high” target for anyone in a league where you can trade. His out rates reinforce his success, and make him a major target in fantasy baseball.
First, his curveball is the second-best out pitch in baseball, behind only Joe Ryan’s curveball. McLean’s has a 39% out rate, which is about 23% higher than the league average. Even more incredible, the entire 39% have been good outs. Digging into the pitch metrics, it is clear why it has performed so well.
McLean has thrown it 41 times, and it has been hit just once, giving it a .059 BAA, to go along with a 40% whiff rate and a 29% putaway rate. It has a 64% strikeout rate, which shows how he has earned a number of his outs on this pitch through strikeouts. When you see it, you understand why batters swing and miss so much:
Nolan McLean, Unfair 3369 RPM Curveball. 🌪️ pic.twitter.com/054lJPTRV0
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 4, 2026
PLV absolutely loves this pitch too:
Nearly everything is spectacular, from its velocity to its location to its movement. This pitch is just absurd. It is one reason why McLean is going to be considered one of the best pitchers in the league by the end of the season.
McLean’s sinker also grades as above average in out rate, at 21%, with an 18% good-out rate to go along with it. He has not thrown enough changeups to qualify, but that very well could turn into another elite out pitch as well. McLean is a must-target in any league.
An Out Rate Pitcher to Avoid
Ranger Suarez is off to a solid start this season, posting a 3.22 ERA as of writing. On the surface, it looks like he is pitching well, but is he truly earning that ERA? His 3.70 xFIP and 4.20 SIERA both suggest he is not, and out rate agrees.
In particular, his sinker appears to be entirely misleading. It has a 25% out rate, but half of the outs he has earned on it have been lucky outs. Boston is a top-10 team in defensive runs saved and defensive fWAR, and his sinker has a 48% ground-ball rate, so his backup likely is a major reason for his high out rate on the sinker, considering some of the other data surrounding it. Take PLV, for example:
This grades as a below-average pitch, and it is no surprise why. Its velocity, extension, and location are all below league average for sinkers. It gets a bunch of horizontal break, but that can only take a pitcher so far when everything else is just okay.
He also is not getting a ton of strikeouts with his sinker, considering it has just a 15% strikeout rate, and Suarez owns a 6.0 strikeouts-per-nine rate and a 17% strikeout rate overall.
Aside from Suarez’s sinker, his changeup and cutter are the only pitches that qualify, so far, for out rate. His changeup has a 5% out rate, which is horrible. And his cutter’s 17% out rate is about 2% higher than the league average. Suarez’s PLV grades on his arsenal are also concerning:
His changeup and cutter have both performed well, but his cutter is the only pitch that has earned the high-quality PLV grade, based on out rate. All of his other pitches grade as below average.
Suarez’s success this season appears to be somewhat of a mirage, and now is the time to either try to trade him or start looking for alternatives.
Other Out Rate Pitchers to Buy
- Tomoyuki Sugano
- Kris Bubic
- Mick Abel
- José Soriano
- Sonny Gray
- Trevor Rogers
- Clay Holmes
- Bryan Woo
- Sandy Alcantara
- Tyler Glasnow
Other Out Rate Pitchers to Sell
