Below, you will find our latest Out% update. The data has been accumulated over the course of the season and is updated as of Friday, 4/24.
Here are a few basics relating to Out Rate:
- Out% = how often a pitcher’s pitch results in an out
- Good Out% = how many of the outs were on batted balls that had an expected batting average below .250, plus strikeouts
- Lucky Out% = how many of the outs were on batted balls that had an xBA of .250 or higher
Out Rate is great for fantasy baseball because it tells you the truth about a pitcher and their ability to get batters out. It can guide fantasy managers towards pitchers to target, drop, sit, or start, based on which pitches are working for them, and whether or not those pitches are earning their outs.
For a little more info on the basics of Out rate, read this, and for some more specifics on good and lucky outs, read this. And to view our Out% Leaderboard Google Doc, click this.
League Average Out Rates
Below are the league average out rates for each pitch type as of Friday, 04/24. This is how we measure a pitcher’s out rate performance.
- Fastball – 16.2%
- Cutter – 15.6%
- Sinker – 17.3%
- Splitter – 21.1%
- Slider – 17.7%
- Sweeper – 17.7%
- Curveball – 16.5%
- Changeup – 19.2%
A few notable starting pitchers sit atop the leaderboards for each pitch (min. 40 pitches thrown), including
- Noah Schultz – Fastball 26.9%
- Antonio Senzatela – Cutter 26.9%
- Sandy Alcantara – Sinker 28.2%
- Zack Littell – Splitter 31.2%
- David Peterson – Slider 35.6%
- Jameson Taillon – Sweeper 30%
- Nolan McLean – Curveball 36.2%
- Chris Sale – Changeup 32.6%
Fastball Out% Highlight
Fastball Out% is important because not many pitchers can turn a fastball into an effective out pitch. Most use them as setup pitches for breaking and offspeed balls. It takes a special fastball that either moves well, locates well, or both, to induce outs. And one of the best out pitch fastballs right now belongs to Noah Schultz.
Overall, his fastball Out rate is the best among starting pitchers at 26.9%, which is nearly 11% better than league average. This is a truly impressive pitch so far, though it has been just two starts. He has attacked righty hitters with it, and it has been difficult for them to hit. In fact, he has thrown it 52 times, and it has been hit just once, giving it a .067 BAA.
Schultz has induced a 34% whiff rate on the pitch, and it has 23% putaway rate. Those whiffs have turned into strikeouts for him, too, with his fastball posting a 35% strikeout rate. That is the best K% out of the five pitches in his arsenal.
His nearly 27% fastball Out rate is made up nearly entirely from Good Outs. Just 1.5% of the outs on his fastball have been considered lucky outs. Remember, Good Outs are outs that a pitcher earns, including on strikeouts, like this one here:
Noah Schultz, 98mph ⛽️
1st MLB K pic.twitter.com/85tYqQ0ZMf
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 14, 2026
At least for now, Schultz looks like the real deal and is a player worth investing into in fantasy baseball.
An Out Rate Pitcher to Target
Most of Joe Ryan’s stuff has been electric this year, but especially his curveball. It owns a 34% Out rate, which is third best out of any pitch in baseball behind Nolan McLean’s curve and David Peterson’s slider. Ryan only throws his curve about 12% of the time, but considering how effective it is at inducing outs, he should be tossing it much more.
PLV also loves his curveball:
He gets great extension and a ton of both horizontal and vertical break. Perhaps most importantly for Ryan, he has been able to locate it insanely well. This pitch grades out as a near quality pitch according to PLV. Take a look at how it moves:
Joe Ryan, Nasty 79mph Curveball. 😨 pic.twitter.com/zrZjHVM2fZ
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 26, 2026
Aside from his curveball, Ryan’s sinker also has an above average Out Rate at 18.1%. While the rest of his arsenal has not been effective at getting outs, their quality is elite. Here is the PLV breakdown for Ryan’s arsenal:
The biggest issue for Ryan seems to be the defense behind him. He has a 58% LOB rate, which is horrible. The Twins are second to last in both DRS and fWAR, which could be a reason why the Out% does not match the pitch quality. Hopefully they can figure this out during the season.
Despite the defensive limitations, Ryan is a player worth acquiring in your fantasy leagues.
An Out Rate Pitcher to Avoid
Aaron Nola is attempting a bounce back year after tallying just 94 innings last season, and turning in a 6.01 ERA. This season, his ERA sits at 5.06 after six starts, and his Out rates show some concerning issues.
Nola features two above average pitches, in terms of Out% – his curveball at 21.5% and his cutter at 20.9%. His other three offerings, a sinker, fastball, and changeup are all below average. Additionally, though, the lucky out on his cutter is 9.3%, meaning nearly half of the outs on that pitch have been “lucky” or unearned. And because the Phillies have the league’s worst DRS, we could see his Out% across the board drop, which he cannot afford.
Nola has not been earning many of these outs through strikeouts. Only his fastball and curveball have strikeout rates over 13%. Nola’s curveball truly has been his only effective weapon, which does not equate to lasting success. Only his curveball and changeup have BAAs better than .333, meaning batters are making contact with a lot of his pitches. That is a problem for one of the league’s worst defenses.
If Nola’s pitch quality was elite, like Joe Ryan’s, he could work around the poor defense. But that is not the case according to PLV:
Again, just his curveball grades positively as a near quality pitch. Every other offering is below league average. For those hoping for a return to form for Nola, or planning on his every-other-year pattern, he is likely to continue to disappoint. He should be a drop in most leagues.
Other Out Rate Pitchers to Buy/Add
- Michael Soroka
- Tyler Glasnow
- Brandon Pfaadt
- Antonio Senzatela
- Logan Gilbert
- Max Fried
- José Soriano
- Casey Mize
- Clay Holmes
- Gavin Williams
Other Out Rate Pitchers to Sell/Drop
