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Hitter Archetypes: Dynasty Prospects with Big Speed

The Victor Scott rule tests prospects who succeed with more than speed

John Villavicencio
Dynasty 3/1/2025

The Risk of Chasing Speed

Of all the hitter archetypes, speedy prospects are the riskiest to chase. For a personal worst-case scenario, I only have to look back to 2024 when Victor Scott II badly burned me. I drafted him in the eighth round of a 20-team, 40-round dynasty league to be the primary steals contributor to my power-heavy team. 

Scott’s burner profile in the minor leagues appeared more robust than the typical speedster. He wasn’t striking out that often and although he didn’t hit the ball hard in Double-A, his speed helped him beat out many ground balls. He earned a .303 average while hitting with minor pop (39 extra-base hits). Yet, those stats assume he would continue making contact with the ball, which wasn’t often in the big leagues. With St. Louis, he was whiffing on 48% of breaking pitches and 42% on offspeed pitches. Further troubling, Scott only made it on base 22% of the time thwarting any speed threat from the batter’s box. After a promotion back onto the major league team, he did display some hard hit improvements.

 

Despite 99th percentile speed, Scott has become an anchor that drags down an entire dynasty team. Further making Scott’s rostership precarious, his future with the big league club is difficult to project as Michael Siani appears poised to earn major playing time in center field over him. For dynasty managers in a similar roster management position to Scott, it feels nearly impossible to get an equivalent return for the draft cost at this stage of his career.

 

The Victor Scott II Test

What does the Victor Scott II experience teach us when drafting prospects with big speed? His collapse in value demonstrates that we need to adopt a test that protects our stats-addictive hearts from falling in love with a speedy prospect who puts up huge stolen base totals in the minor leagues.

The Victor Scott II Test states that a player must demonstrate another offensive skill on top of speed to be draft-worthy.

In the game, a speedster has to be on base to earn the opportunity to steal a base.  For the benefit of our dynasty game, we will test three categories to identify that additional skill. We will test if a player has a high batting average or walk rate. We will examine groups to see if they have a sustainably high BABIP that represents a desire to run fast out of the batter’s box. We will also review the number of doubles and triples hit to assess hustle. The final group will evaluate players with a high fielding grade.

Players below were identified as having 80 present or future value in speed according to the 2024 FanGraphs Big Board, with a few exceptions due to their exceptional stolen base rate. All boxes below represent stats accumulated during the 2023-2024 Minor League seasons. Click here to head directly to the Conclusion.

Gets On Base

This group of speedsters has an awesome on-base percentage achieved by a high average, high walk rate, low strikeout rate, or some combination of the three.

Chandler Simpson sticks out as the obvious Victor Scott II parallel who may not live up to the hype. As a fellow left-handed hitter, Simpson offers a different hitter profile. He makes much more contact than Scott ever did and sprays the ball into left field at a higher rate. On the other hand, the contact is on the ground more than half of the time and Simpson has only faced Double-A pitching similar to Scott. Dynasty fans may also make a common mistake by projecting defensive skills solely because of his speed when Simpson has only been projected as an average fielder. Despite the awesome SB totals in the minors, it is difficult to put faith in Simpson’s risky profile until proven for a longer stretch in Triple-A. If you are a Simpson believer, then the above highlight package will warm your heart.

The next most exciting player is Luis Pena, who ran wild in the DSL in a small sample. Once stateside, we will see if he can continue raking with a low strikeout rate and hitting extra bases at a high rate.

Jonny Farmelo hurt his ACL in June but had been on his way to a successful first-year campaign. The high walk rate is a boon to his stolen base rates, so let’s hope the injury is fully healed by midseason.

Cole Carrigg wasn’t scouted as having top-notch speed but he’s been motoring around the bases at a high clip. In 2024, he hit a double or triple every 15 plate appearances while striking out at an acceptable rate. His career total of triples is exciting given the expansive outfield of his future major league home (Coors Park) and because he is also being used as a shortstop. I drafted Carrigg recently in the final year of a five-year league with the smallest hope he can make his debut this season due to the unimpressive MLB outfield depth in Colorado.

Verdict: Simpson fails the Scott test, while Farmelo, Pena, and Carigg are all solid buys.

Fast Feet

This group of speedsters displays an above-average intention to run by having a high BABIP or hitting beaucoup doubles and triples.

 

For this grouping, we will consider the double and more notably the triple as representative of sprint speed since these hits require an extra amount of hustle to zoom around the bases. Tommy Troy, Jonatan Clase, and Henry Bolte each had a strong rate of a double or triple per 16 plate appearances. Bolte and Clase finished in the 95th percentile of total triples for the minor leagues for the last two seasons.

Hampered by a hamstring injury in 2024, Tommy Troy received additional playing time in the Arizona Fall League to demonstrate that the wheels were still spinning. Troy should excel like Corbin Carroll with a mix of speed and power from the shortstop position. After this research, I traded for him in the 20-team dynasty league with the intention he would be my 2026 or 2027 starting shortstop.

No one is questioning the speed Henry Bolte brings to the diamond. Yet, he is slowed down by a high strikeout rate. Despite putting the ball on the ground 54% of the time, he has an acceptable average and typical BABIP based on his recent history.

Jonatan Clase has not transferred his numbers into the major leagues, but the running prowess is elite. He could find himself back in Triple-A to start 2025, so he will be forced to run even harder beyond the 40+ steals pace of 2024. He is at risk of turning into Myles Straw, but unfortunately Myles Straw is ahead of him on the depth chart.

Verdict: Troy is a slam dunk buy and Bolte is a hold to see what he can do in Triple-A while Clase is a pass.

Big Glove

This group of speedsters is poised to stay on the field for their defense.

Capri Ortiz displays a strong intention to run and the wheels to back it up. The .390 BABIP over the last two years looks great next to the 10 triples. Slap-happy switch-hitting Ortiz employs a wide stance to take the best runner start one can use as a hitter. If he can continue to chip away at the high strikeout rate, this 19-year-old will jump up the Angels’ prospects list.

Greg Jones barreled a home run on his first big league at-bat, but that could be his only career highlight if he doesn’t dramatically cut down on the 35+K%. He typically has a ground ball approach at the plate but has just enough power to pull a home run. His SS/OF versatility helps him claim a big-league roster spot.

Enrique Bradfield Jr. brings a contact mentality to the plate intending to slap the ball the other way giving his speed more time to do damage. There is high praise for his fielding which comes from his ability to cover large areas on the field. His defense paired with solid walk and strikeout rates should allow more rope with any offensive struggles when he gets called up.

Are 53 MLB games enough to proclaim that Victor Scott II won’t ever make it? It’s too early to call it, but there will be early pressure on Scott to demonstrate a new strategy after being too apprehensive at the plate in 2024. It’s kind of shocking that he only had one bunt base hit as it was my impression that it could be a bigger weapon for him.

Homer Bush Jr. has the prototypical speedster profile with acceptable contact, strikeout, and walk rates with an acceptable defensive profile. He frequently puts the ball on the ground to the pull side to take advantage of his speed.

Yhoswar Garcia has a few obstacles to overcome to make it to the major league squad such as being older for level and smaller than most. He demonstrated better contact skills after being signed as a free agent in Milwaukee so there is hope his growth will progress with a subsequent promotion to Double-A.

Dasan Brown struck out more and walked less after graduating to Double-A. Besides the steals totals and high fielding value, we need to see more in 2025 for Brown to be a consideration for your dynasty team.

Kendall George is another lefty speedster who hits the ball on the ground the opposite way to take advantage of his speed. There is zero power in the swing, so the defense will need to be his calling card to earn a shot in the majors.

Verdict: It’s a fade on Scott, Jones, Brown and George. Hold onto Bradfield, Bush Jr., and Garcia. Ortiz is a lukewarm buy.

Pedigree

This group of speedsters have excellent speed but are also scouted as an overall great player.

 

Jordan Lawlar returned from a lengthy injury (hamstring) stint in September to record only two extra-base hits and go 1 for 2 on the base paths in 12 Triple-A games. His potential for 2025 is high, but the health question needs to be completely clear before anyone should hop back on board. He has a decent walk rate and middling strikeout rate. The biggest area of improvement dynasty managers are waiting for is in the power department.

Verdict: The scouts give him excellent marks on defense, speed, and power so Lawlar is a hold for fear of missing out if he puts it all together for your dynasty team in 2025.

Catcher

This is a group of catchers with speed as the heading suggests.

 


Dynasty managers are drooling over the profile for AgustĂ­n RamĂ­rez because he is stockpiling so many traits that are not normally attributed to the catcher position. In addition, RamĂ­rez is stacking these statistical chips while also getting gobs of playing time at first base and DH (57% C, 18% 1B, 25% DH). On top of the solid batted ball data, he sprinkled in steals every month. RamĂ­rez is ready to give Miami amazing production from behind the dish where dynasty managers hope he still qualifies when promoted.

Although scouts mark Blake Mitchell as a below-average runner, he stole the third most bases among catchers in the minor leagues in 2024. The positives are the high walk rate that provided those opportunities, while the obvious negative is his penchant for the swing-and-miss. Dynasty managers and Royals fans feel deja vu with Mitchell as he is following a similar pedestrian path as MJ Melendez.

NOTE: He was likely not making a big league debut in 2025, but Mitchell suffered a broken right hamate bone on February 22nd that will keep him on the shelf for at least 4-6 weeks.

Harry Ford is already demonstrating better plate discipline than Mitchell with a much higher steals total. His offensive improvements are bouncing around, but trending in a positive direction. The fear is that his lack of a strong defensive profile will move him off the position by the time of promotion.

Verdict: RamĂ­rez is a slam dunk buy while Ford is a solid buy. Mitchell is a fade for now.

Conclusion

The above examination reviews three areas that make a speedy prospect more likely to succeed. The chart below is a check on my initial verdicts.  The chart includes scouting values for present and future value hit tool, pitch selection, bat control, and overall future value of the prospect.

From the review, I failed to capture the potential for a few picks since I suggest passing on them. Scott, Mitchell, and Simpson each have one area in their hitter scouting report that is slightly above average. Simpson has done a few things differently in Double-A that Scott didn’t demonstrate, but I have grown skeptical of this weak hitting profile until it is displayed for longer stretches at Triple-A or higher. Brown has demonstrated solid on-base skills and grades out with excellent defense. I am lukewarm on Lawlar returning to top prospect status, and as such this is the pick that could make me look the most foolish. You may find more upside on the players I am fading and wish to take the plunge.

I am putting more trust in a few players who didn’t receive great scouting reports. Carrigg is a player who has exceeded his sub-average scouting report on the field. Although I am a buyer on Pena and Ortiz, their minimal playing careers have time to regress to their average scouting grades.

Avoid Glove First Speedsters

After examining all the groups, the trait that piques my stolen base curiosity the most is when a prospect demonstrates many ways to get on base. Not surprisingly, the argument that a player’s glove keeps them in the lineup feels the weakest to prop up a prospect’s value. Great defense only buys a player so much playing time before their lagging offensive contribution snaps the speed trance. For future searches of prospects with big speed, I will include filters for plate discipline or average to identify potential breakouts worth targeting. Without further ado, here is the final chart with my recommendations for the 2025 season.

 Credit: FanGraphs Big Board Scouting Scores

Note: Kellon Lindsey is a 2024 first-round draft pick of the Dodgers with a speed grade of 80, but has yet to appear in a minor league game as of the release of this article.

 

Photo courtesy of Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@abeardoesart on X & @abeardoesart on Bluesky)

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