With rosters mostly set, Spring Training in full force, and the WBC taking center stage for a few days, it looks like the perfect time to size up how each division could fare in the upcoming season. Having already looked at both Central divisions and the AL East, we are using every Wednesday up to Opening Day to talk about the state of every team and division around MLB, using Steamer projections to give us an idea of how depth charts and competitive cycles are lining up in 2026.
Today, we turn to the NL East, where three clear frontrunners and two presumed minnows will battle it out after a tumultuous 2025 and a strange offseason. Following three straight seasons of the East featuring multiple playoff representation, the last campaign only saw the Phillies breaking away, as Atlanta had a proverbial season from hell and the Mets became a bloated mess, missing out on the final day. Things have not been as auspicious since, as the East has been mired in plenty of controversy, including PED suspensions, non-captain designations, and GMs calling out star players, and that’s before a single game has been played.
The projections suggest that we will have a close race all summer long, and it’s clear that it is a fool’s errand trying to predict who will come out on top.
Washington Nationals – 2025 Record: 66-96 – 2026 Projection: 69-93
While the Flags Fly Forever argument makes a lot of sense, the Nationals have taken it to the extreme since their 2019 magical season, now turning into a case study of how everything can go wrong. With last year’s firing of manager Davey Martinez and GM Mike Rizzo, the Nats have lost all connection to their title-winning team, and now 2026 appears to be yet another lost year for the once-proud franchise. The only silver lining for this franchise is that they have held no qualms about their upcoming terribleness, and can now hope that their current rebuilding effort will finally stick.
The Nationals, unlike say the Rockies, took the proverbial band-aid off in several moves this offseason, including the hiring of a brand-new front office full of intriguing executives, 33-year-old Blake Butera as a rookie field manager, and traded some of its highest-rated players (Mackenzie Gore, Jose A. Ferrer) for the chance to develop young talent. The past half-decade has made everyone skeptical of Washington’s ability to build from within, but that has become the best chance for the Nats to turn things around, especially if Harry Ford can use his recent star turn in the WBC to develop into a solid regular. Washington also boasts a number of top-100 prospects in the low minors, so the team can afford to be patient in its effort to compete in this top-heavy division.
Top 15 Washington Nationals Prospects pic.twitter.com/ku6NXUKtbz
— Booth #KeaschallFC (@KaBoothhh) March 5, 2026
The recent addition of Zack Littell serves as a minor consolation for a staff that will struggle to keep the opposition from scoring, while the offense looks young but unexciting, outside of the continued development of the likes of James Wood and Dylan Crews. With fan interest waning in DC and the NL as strong as it’s ever been, it would not be surprising to see the Nationals hovering around 100 losses, but that may be a necessary evil for a franchise that is still at least two or three years from being competitive. If it all goes okay, that may become a nice touch to complement the champions’ 10-year reunion.
Miami Marlins – 2025 Record: 79-83 – 2026 Projection: 75-87
As confounding as they are, it is fair to say that the Marlins were kinda good in 2025, posting a winning record since late May and probably being a Kyle Stowers injury away from contending for the playoffs. Eliminating the Mets on the final day may have been a nice consolation prize, but the biggest takeaway should be how this team improved by 17 wins following a dreadful 2024, and their current projection may be underselling how solid this roster has become. Despite operating under their usual budget limitations and with no true homegrown Marlin expected to be part of the team’s lineup, the Fish appear ready to surprise a few pundits in 2026.
Get ready Miami Marlins. Owen Caissie is special 🔥
pic.twitter.com/ZCfI9nMoeW— js9innings (@js9inningsmedia) March 7, 2026
The Edward Cabrera trade serves as a perfect microcosm of how Miami operates these days, using their surplus of talented arms to try to improve the offense, as former Cubs top prospect Owen Caissie is likely to become the team’s Opening-Day right fielder. The Marlins will probably field a lineup that includes eight players acquired via trade or waivers, with the low-cost Christopher Morel free agent signing having at least some upside as he tries to retrieve some of his prospect shine. The return of a healthy Stowers adds at least one reliable power source, but the Marlins know that their identity will be of speed, contact, and opportunism, with plenty of low-heralded offensive contributors that will try to score just enough to remain competitive and complement a solid pitching corps.
With the Marlins holding on to Sandy Alcantara, the erstwhile ace can become the bellwether for how this team performs in 2026. If he is effective but the wins are not coming, he can be prime trade bait, but if Miami can hang around .500, Alcantara and his fellow rotation mates like Eury Perez and Braxton Garrett could carry this organization to an unlikely Wild Card berth. The signing of Pete Fairbanks to close games may have gone unnoticed in many circles, but it is a clear indication that the front office thinks that a brand-name closer is not just a luxury, but a need for a team with hopes. This being the Marlins, it can all go awry in a hurry, and a massive fire sale could take place around July. On the other hand, that 75-win projection looks way, way low.
Philadelphia Phillies – 2025 Record: 96-66 – 2026 Projection: 87-75
Philadelphia’s recent trend of great regular seasons paired with playoff heartbreak may have reached its peak in 2025, as the Phillies cruised to a 96-win division title only to be humbled by the eventual-champion Dodgers in the NLDS. While the defeat was marked by an unforgivable baserunning gaffe in Game 2 and an unfortunate throwing error in Game 4, the reality is that the Phillies looked outmatched during several stretches in the series, which has been somewhat of a recurrence since their surprise pennant in 2022. With several key players hitting free agency, the front office had a chance to send a message and retool, but instead chose to play the hits, bringing back most of its veteran core. This also included a very public break-up with Nick Castellanos and a calling out of team leader Bryce Harper’s status as a star player, which was certainly a choice.
YIKES: Bryce Harper is still not happy about Phillies president Dave Dombrowski saying publicly that he did not have an elite season. 😳
"It was kind of wild the whole situation of that happening…I don't need to be motivated to be great in my career…For Dave to come out and… pic.twitter.com/u4Q9d2DgBF
— SPORTSRADIO 94WIP (@SportsRadioWIP) February 15, 2026
The re-signing of J.T. Realmuto and Kyle Schwarber and the addition of Adolis García to replace Castellanos keep the brand-name tag on this offense, but also highlight just how old and risky this approach may become for the Phillies going forward. Prospect Justin Crawford is slated to be the everyday center fielder at the tender age of 22, but that will make him look like Merry or Pippin between a forest full of Ents, as the Phillies are clearly the oldest lineup in the game. While projections are still generous for the likes of Schwarbs, Harper, and Trea Turner, it is also to see how this could fall apart with a couple of untimely injuries or Father Time deciding to play a cruel joke.
The potential pitfalls of the offense can still be saved by a tremendous pitching staff, though, and the Phillies have assembled a nice core that will keep them competitive. Cristopher Sánchez emerged as a legit ace in 2025, and he will be tasked with leading the rotation at least until Zack Wheeler is able to return. Jesús Luzardo was also rewarded with a nice extension this offseason and could elevate to co-ace status by season’s end, while prized prospect Andrew Painter is set to receive his first crack as a full-time MLB starter, which should make plenty of people in Philadelphia happy. With Jhoan Duran seemingly solving the team’s long-time issues at closer, along with a plethora of solid setup men, the Phillies are well-rounded to shorten games and sustain leads. However, the true ceiling of this team probably resides on the status of Wheeler and Aaron Nola’s comeback attempt following a dreadful 2025. With plenty of drama before the season starts and a roster full of veterans, this is bound to be a very interesting season in the City of Brotherly Love.
Atlanta Braves – 2025 Record: 76-86 – 2026 Projection: 88-74
Back when Atlanta started giving long, below-market extensions to seemingly all of their prized young talent, it seemed that their contention window would last all throughout the 2020s, if not longer. The 2021 championship, followed by back-to-back 100-win seasons, served as evidence of how the Braves had built an airtight juggernaut, with the financial flexibility to add a big-ticket free agent when needed or swing an aggressive trade if the situation called for it. Alas, a subpar season in 2024 was followed by a stunning 2025 in which Atlanta started 0-7 and could never recover, showing us how even the best roster in the game can fall prey to baseball’s whims.
The BASEBALL GOD seem to dislike Atlanta Braves,
and they seem to dislike seeing Braves fans filled with hope…😭 #BravesCountry https://t.co/gBcAX2AkRT pic.twitter.com/FrMpMN9va9
— Eric Yu (@Eric35_Yu) March 8, 2026
Atlanta made a clear effort to bounce back as soon as possible, relying on its stellar brain trust and already-good roster, but things have not gone as smoothly heading into 2026. The Braves will start the season with a fistful of players on the injured list, including two presumed starters in catcher Sean Murphy and shortstop Ha-Seong Kim, and a solid starting pitcher in Spencer Schwellenbach. It all got worse when veteran Jurickson Profar was tagged for a second PED suspension that will cost him all of 2026, and so Atlanta suddenly has little to no margin for error, and that includes the fact that Spencer Strider has yet to find his vintage form, and the team is counting on Chris Sale to produce another full season of ace-like results.
Besides all this negativity, Atlanta does at least have plenty of All-Star-like players that can quickly make all the drama and bad luck disappear in a hurry. Ronald Acuña, Jr. is just entering his prime, Michael Harris and Ozzie Albies can’t be as bad as they were last season, Matt Olson remains a steady force, and the front office even added a nice complementary piece in Mike Yastrzemski, who has the profile to be a fan favorite and make up for Profar’s absence. The fact that Atlanta is facing such calamities and is still projected to win around 90 games speaks volumes of their roster and track record, but they will still need some good fortune and positive regression to stave off the Mets and Phillies in the East. It is hard to see the Braves miss the playoffs for two straight years, and they are the preternatural candidate bounce-back team in the NL, unless they continue to fall victim to such calamities that make you think of the Springfield Nuclear Power Plant Softball Stars.
New York Mets – 2025 Record: 83-79 – 2026 Projection: 88-74
Starting this offseason, the New York Mets had 16 free agents on their 40-man roster. Only one of them was retained, so far, with the wonderfully-named Richard Lovelady signing a modest one-year deal to stay in Queens. Franchise hero Pete Alonso? Now an Oriole. Edwin Diaz and Timmy Trumpet? Now blasting in Chavez Ravine. Fan favorites Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil? Traded away, never heard of ’em. This unsentimental set of moves by the Mets was shocking in many ways, but also served a clear purpose after a season in which the organization paid the highest payroll in the league and still missed the playoffs. All the fun and memories of OMG and 2024 were quickly erased, turning the Mets into an all-business mode that can propel them to greatness or quickly backfire.
Following a very different approach compared to the Phillies or even the Braves, New York will try to define this next chapter by showing off its financial might while also applying some of the shrewd moves around the margins that made POBO David Stearns famous. Signing Bo Bichette to a large free agent contract is part of it, but so is the challenge trade for Marcus Semien, turning Jorge Polanco into a first baseman, buying low on the enigmatic Luis Robert Jr., Jr. or trusting a rookie like Carson Benge to begin the season sharing an outfield with Juan Soto. In the end, the Mets are aware that they may be changing their identity in bulk, but still will mostly depend on the brilliance of Soto and Francisco Lindor, which is always a nice place to start.
David Wright was once a top prospect trying to make it in New York.
The Captain shared what his advice would be for Carson Benge 🤝
🎠 x @Mets x @MetsPlayerDev pic.twitter.com/s76YiCkt9H
— Binghamton Rumble Ponies (@RumblePoniesBB) March 10, 2026
Stearns’ never-ending quest to be Brewers of the East probably became too literal with the additions of Freddy Peralta as the team’s presumed ace and Devin Williams as the star closer, but those moves may be what end up tipping the scales in New York’s favor. With Nolan McLean turning from a prized prospect to the co-ace of the staff and a flurry of quality veterans to complement him, the genius of this Mets transformation may come in the fact that they should have enough leadership to avoid any long losing streaks or cold spells, which became commonplace as the roster crumbled to close out 2025. The front office’s ample resources should also mean that New York will be active and aggressive in search of upgrades as the season progresses, and that could be the difference maker in this tight division. As the Mets try to erase a 40-year title drought, they need to find a way to be as un-Metsian as possible and turn into a sustained winner.
