With the WBC now in the rearview mirror and the glory of Opening Day ready to kickstart the season, we finally get to the last division in our gauntlet, with the NL West ready for its close-up. As usual, we are using Steamer projections to give us an idea of how depth charts and competitive cycles are lining up in 2026.
This division looks like a recession graph, with the uber-rich expected to remain high atop, while their not-so-fortunate mates are scraping at the bottom of the barrel. The gap between first and second place is projected to be the largest in all of baseball, as the Dodgers are almost certain to take home their 13th West title over the past 14 seasons. In some of those years, they have won comfortably, but there have been instances of somebody making a run towards a close division race, just like it happened in the past two years. Alas, the talent exodus and uncertainty for erstwhile contenders like the Padres and Dbacks have created a perfect storm for the Dodgers, whose ultimate success will be measured by their ability to become the first three-time defending champs since the Yankees of the late 90s.
Colorado Rockies – 2025 Record: 43-119 – 2026 Projection: 66-96
Did you know that, outside of the 2021 second-place season, the closest the Dodgers have come to losing the division happened when the Rockies came within one game of first place? That happened all the way back in 2018, as Colorado earned its most recent playoff berth, but it ranks as certifiably the best thing the franchise has done over the past decade, with the Rockies devolving into an uncompetitive mess, if not an absolute joke of a franchise.
The sting of three straight 100-loss seasons, including 2025’s debacle, finally prompted ownership to go outside their comfort zone, hiring former Oakland A’s executive Peter Brand Paul DePodesta to run the show. The hiring, in true Rockies fashion, is a curious one at best, as one of the architects of Moneyball was most recently known for working in the NFL. DePodesta and his new associates will receive the benefit of the doubt and a long leash, as trying to fix this team may be the biggest challenge in baseball (the Angels may have a word, though). The early returns of this new regime suggest that Colorado is interested in improving slowly, with a number of solid homegrown players and a a few respectable arms to shore up the rotation.
Our Opening Day 2026 starter ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/HB0aTINMUC
— Colorado Rockies (@Rockies) March 17, 2026
The eternal absence of Kris Bryant, which was turned from sad to depressing, means that free agent import Willi Castro is now the veteran leader of the offense, despite his tender age of 29. The rest of the lineup is full of low-ceiling acquisitions and the trio of players drafted and developed by the organization, with Ezequiel Tovar, Hunter Goodman, and Brenton Doyle expected to someday be part of a competitive Rockies squad. The rotation is projected to be its usual mess, but probably not at the disaster level, as signing the likes of Jose Quintana and Michael Lorenzen provides some certainty while prospects like Chase Dollander continue to develop with less pressure. While the ghost of 100+ losses will haunt the Rockies in 2026, the product on the field may be a bit better, along with the semblance of a plan the front office appears to have.
San Diego Padres – 2025 Record: 90-72 – 2026 Projection: 79-83
Following a stretch of three playoff berths over the past four seasons, the Padres are now widely expected to suffer a significant drop-off, with most projection systems suggesting a finish around .500. The trajectory of San Diego has been completely altered following their most recent spending constraints, as the roster has now become one of the most extreme cases of stars and scrubs in the majors. With the playoffs ending on an unceremonious Wild Card loss to the Cubs in which the Friars scored only one run over their two losses, it may have signalled that San Diego is now starting its steady decline and may be out of the NL contenders tier.
On any good day, the Padres can give a starting pitcher trouble. The duo of Fernando Tatis, Jr. and Jackson Merrill is certainly elite, while Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts are still pretty much good major leaguers. The gap between this top four and the rest of San Diego’s offense is steep to say the least, and that is not even counting any potential injuries or age-related declines. When a team is projected to give significant at-bats to the likes of Miguel Andujar, Ramón Laureano, and Gavin Sheets, the pressure for stars to play at an MVP-type level only grows, and that is not even considering that the Padres were already a bottom-five team in 2025 when it came to power.
The Brewers always find elite relievers 🔥 pic.twitter.com/0kX7CjetSV
— BetMGM 🦁 (@BetMGM) March 24, 2026
The silver lining for the Padres may come in the form of their pitching, even as they were not able to retain Dylan Cease and are now relying on Michael King and Nick Pivetta to lead the rotation. The bullpen may be the best in the NL West, though, with the trio of Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon, and Jeremiah Estrada ready to become a weapon and shorten games. San Diego is closely bunched with Arizona and San Francisco in terms of expectations, but they may have the biggest ceiling of the bunch just by virtue of their stars. However, any hope to challenge for a wild card, let alone the division, will require plenty of health, good fortune, and career renaissances for their expensive veterans. The odds of getting there are low, but not impossible for the ever-optimistic Friars.
Arizona Diamondbacks – 2025 Record: 80-82 – 2026 Projection: 81-81
Arizona’s shocking 2023 pennant gives the NL West a stretch of three straight league champions, but that result has progressively resulted in more and more of a fluke. For one, it is Arizona’s only playoff appearance over their past eight seasons, as they have backed it up with a solid campaign followed by a mediocre one. While the chance to contend for an NL West title is almost non-existent, the Dbacks were at least in position to join the wild card mosh pit with a solid offseason. Alas, they decided to play coy and run it back with nearly the same roster that ended 80-82 in 2025, making their current .500 projection all too on the nose.
Similar to what happens in San Diego, the Snakes have a certifiable core of MVP contenders, with the trio of Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, and Geraldo Perdomo considered among the best in the league. You could even make a case for Gabriel Moreno as a top-tier catcher, while Alek Thomas is a defensive wizard playing center field. The issue for Arizona is that their response to a lousy season was to bring in veterans on their last legs, with Nolan Arenado and Carlos Santana making perfect sense if this was 2016 instead of 2026. The upside for Arizona now stands as limited, even if they are carried by their superstar group.
Get your hands on the all new Take Me Out to the Ballgame Shake this season at @ChaseField!
This salted caramel shake comes loaded with whipped cream, peanut butter sandwich cookies, Kit Kat bars, and Cracker Jacks 😋 pic.twitter.com/YGuRzWQrpI
— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) March 18, 2026
Unlike the Padres, Arizona cannot count on a strong bullpen or an intriguing rotation to contend, with the return of Zac Gallen counting as the only notable free agent move made by the team. Of course, this is coming off Gallen’s worst season in the majors, which is not exactly the best endorsement, while the likes of Ryne Nelson and Eduardo Rodriguez will try to make up for the season-long absence of Corbin Burnes and any lingering effects from Merrill Kelly’s back issues to start the year.
Even as the Dbacks should have enough speed, defense, and overall athleticism to avoid long losing streaks, it is clear that they are not at the same level as other NL wild card contenders. As Marte trade talks emerged during the offseason, expect to see plenty of them around the trade deadline.
San Francisco Giants – 2025 Record: 81-81 – 2026 Projection: 82-80
If Arizona’s 2023 pennant was a fluke, then San Francisco’s 2021 107-win season may fall into the historical anomaly category, as every failed follow-up since then has made that historic year a bizarre memory. While those 2021 Giants were full of mystique and a clutch gene, the subsequent versions of the team have felt all but that, starting with a front office that has failed to capitalize on the many inherent advantages of playing in a big market with a loyal fanbase.
Last season’s Giants were good for a while and then added Rafael Devers, who was supposed to be the big name that finally carried them over the top. Instead, injuries and slumps were the norms for the rest of the year, leading San Francisco to a fourth straight record between 79 and 82 wins. With important free agents on the market and the chance to make a splash, the Giants did nothing more than add Luis Arraez, Harrison Bader, Adrian Houser, and Tyler Mahle. All of them may be serviceable and solid major leaguers, but not nearly enough to move the needle in a roster that needs a true infusion of talent.
Five bold predictions for the San Francisco Giants in 2026. pic.twitter.com/FHB3dlKfKL
— DylanIsADragon (@DylanIsADragon) March 19, 2026
Unless something unexpected happens, the Giants will again be on the same treadmill of mediocrity that has become familiar by the Bay, without bottoming out but also without a chance to contend. To San Francisco’s credit, they are at least trying new things on the margins, including the addition of Tony Vitello as manager, straight from the college ranks. They are also being confident in POBO Buster Posey to run things in a more old-fashioned way, which was led to things like hiring Ron Washington to coach the infield and developing young phenom Bryce Eldridge in a traditional route of the stereotypical power hitter.
With Devers and Willy Adames still in their primes, and homegrown talent like Heliot Ramos, Patrick Bailey, and Jung-Hoo Lee still developing, there is a path for the Giants to make some noise. However, that will probably require a bigger commitment to reinforce the rotation midseason, as it is stretched thin following the ever-reliable Logan Webb and the potential of a Robbie Ray re-emergence. The line between second and fourth place in the West is thinner than ever, and so San Francisco needs a statement season to at least fight for a wild card.
Los Angeles Dodgers – 2025 Record: 93-69 – 2026 Projection: 96-66
At this point, it has become almost impossible to find faults in the LA Dodgers. Their worst projected lineup regular is second baseman Alex Freeland, who is still a 25-year-old with upside. Their rotation is so loaded that even if Roki Sasaki’s preseason woes carry over to 2026, they still have Blake Snell stashed in the injured list. Last season, they had a legitimate weakness in their bullpen, to the point that $72-million man Tanner Scott could be demoted at anytime – and even that was promptly solved simply by signing Edwin Díaz, the absolute best relief arm in the free agent market. Yes, the Dodgers do have it all, and they are on a mission to win their third straight title.
While the offseason signing of Kyle Tucker ignited a bunch of “the Dodgers are ruining baseball” hot takes, it was, at its core, another signal of how this organization is relentless and will use any kind of weapon at their disposal in their quest for success. That is commendable for a plethora of reasons, even if they are summarized in the fact that the rest of the league is pursuing the Dodgers, which is a fun storyline by itself. Having Shohei Ohtani putting up historic feats, especially now as a true two-way phenom, and veterans like Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts still performing at an elite leve,l adds a layer of fun and respectability to these Dodgers, even as it is also easy to see how they have become baseball’s super villains.
Kyle Tucker is ready to go with the Los Angeles @Dodgers 🤩 pic.twitter.com/Y8gisOhVwr
— MLB (@MLB) February 19, 2026
With the NL West title almost becoming an afterthought for this organization, most of the attention should again fall on how the Dodgers can make the season almost a rehearsal for the playoffs, with ample chances to rest their best arms and have them all ready for October. While betting markets suggest that 100 wins is well within reach for LA, regular-season success is almost besides the point, as last year’s 93-win total demonstrated that the Dodgers are always aiming for higher goals. With a chance to make history and add a three-peat to their tally, the Dodgers are bound to be the biggest story throughout the summer, for better or worse.
