Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Sunday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Cade Povich (BAL) vs SFG (W) – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 97 pitches.
I remember labeling Cade Povich as a potential SWATCH in September/October last year and I tucked away that notion in March when I noticed the Orioles had a full rotation + Povich hadn’t displayed any gains during his spring outings. However, now with two games under his belt, Povich is getting your attention with another potential stream ahead in Cleveland. And I’m not quite sure yet if I want to jump in.
At first glance, his four-seamer looks better with two more inches of vert at a fantastic 19/20″ mark, but he also raised his arm angle five degrees. And yet, I don’t believe 46 degrees is extreme enough to overlook that much movement, which explains its 14% SwStr rate with a 70% strike rate and only one hit allowed at a paltry 92 mph velocity. He got it upstairs plenty, but this isn’t your dominant heater to take over starts. In addition, the sinker to LHB was a wild stallion across the five thrown and y’all know I want to see that sinker get inside, especially for a SWATCH.
That leaves his success reliant on his secondaries. The curveball showed up in a big way for 23% SwStr and a 33% CSW, but it’s sitting 76/77 mph and such a large hook can be difficult to land properly over the plate to find 60% strikes consistently. I still like it, but I’d feel far more comfortable if the changeup was in a better place than floating over the middle of the plate with 11% usage to RHB. It was an effective changeup when thrown, likely due to Povich’s surprise reveals. Such charisma.
In short, I still see a work in progress, even with 17 whiffs on the night. I’m not buying 7/30 curveball whiffs on a regular basis and the slider/change are not the dominating offerings I want them to be (the slider was effective to LHB and well spotted, though, and I may not be giving it enough credit). Still, you may want to test it against the Guardians as a 12-team streamer, and become a worthy option in 15-teamers.
Let’s see how every other SP did Sunday:
José Soriano (LAA) @ CIN (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 10 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 106 pitches.
This is an absurd run and I love it for him. I went digging to tell you the exact difference, and there are a few obvious ones – 100% LOB rate, absurd Koufax favor (three hits per nine is hilarious) and one HR that make a five-star HOTEL – and then there’s a higher strike rate on his four-seamer due to a massive increase in O-swing in the small sample. So what you’re saying is that Soriano is a sell high. Yeah, I don’t think I’m going out on a limb to say so. He’s also carried an unsustainable putaway rate on his four-seamer and splitter, while the whiff rate on his sinker has gone up despite a tick lower velocity (though some extra depth on the sinker to LHB that disappears vs. RHB…again, small sample). That said, I wonder what the market actually looks like for a “Sell High” and you may be better off just holding until he looks like a volatile arm again, which may ultimately never come – we’ve seen full seasons of everything going a guy’s way, after all.
Drew Rasmussen (TBR) vs NYY (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 76 pitches.
He’s back with all the dad strength you could hope for. Strap in y’all, his schedule is so good.
Aaron Civale (ATH) @ NYM (W) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 75 pitches.
Through three games, Civale now has a 1.72 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. No, that’s not going to stick. Yes, he is not the worst stream against the White Sox. No, I’m not going to do it. Yes, I’m going to stop this format now and forever.
Nick Pivetta (SDP) vs COL (ND) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 46 pitches.
Uh oh. This was going so well until he was removed with elbow stiffness and manager Craig Stammen tried to quell our fears with “We’re optimistic that we caught it at the right time.” Uhhhh huh. He was also apparently under the weather, but let’s be real. After the arm fatigue in the spring and now this, it doesn’t look good, especially with his velocity falling from 94+ to 91.0 at pitch #44 in the fourth inning.
Logan Gilbert (SEA) vs HOU (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 85 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. That’s a King Cole for Gilbert and boy do I love seeing that four-seamer live upstairs with a 40% CSW and 80% strike rate. The new cutter and kick-change are nothing special yet, but it’s cool to see him experiment with both for 14% usage combined. Keep trying, buddy.
Tarik Skubal (DET) vs MIA (W) – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 96 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. The velocity and extension are both a little down (don’t blame the weather, 59 degrees in Detroit is relatively super warm!) and we don’t care.
Brandon Woodruff (MIL) vs WSN (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 70 pitches.
Get used to six frames from Woody – he’ll likely stay around there even at 70 pitches plenty, which can be absurdly frustrating for Milwaukee fans who watched their 3-2 lead crumble in the following frame. We’re seeing far fewer sinkers this year, which is a bit surprising, though he faced few RHB here and it may return when the lineups even out. Otherwise, he’s the same guy.
Chris Sale (ATL) vs CLE (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 97 pitches.
Aces gonna get Singled Out but not have the disaster frame like last time. Phew.
Freddy Peralta (NYM) vs ATH (L) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 100 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. He just had to walk three batters, didn’t he? His velocity and extension are also down, but I’m not going to worry about it. It’s hard to tell how real that is this early in the season. Sean Manaea relieved Peralta for three perfect frames with four strikeouts, and while that looks fantastic, he did it with an 89 mph fastball. It’s not gonna happen, y’all.
Jacob deGrom (TEX) @ LAD (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 9 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 93 pitches.
Aces gonna allow a first-pitch Ohtani HR, then go shutout for six frames. I’m so glad your knee is alright.
Andrew Painter (PHI) vs ARI (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 80 pitches.
Painter was opened for after he was initially scratched with a migraine, and this was wonderful. Well, to RHB, at least, and the results to LHB were great, too, but the splitter/slider/curve constantly sat well over the plate. The sweeper and slider to RHB were perfection, though, and the few sinkers inside were solid + the four-seamer was spotted well to LHB. This is who he is. A lack of dominant heater with good secondaries can be great if he spots them well or they can be his downfall if he’s not on his game. That’s good enough for us as a low-end “Holly,” right?
Taj Bradley (MIN) @ TOR (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 7 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 106 pitches.
He’s still getting results, and yet, four walks. He had so many splitters miss way upstairs, which is something you never see from a pitcher who has a good feel for the pitch. His cutter and curve also returned poor strike rates and Bradley gave us 4/51 whiffs on four-seamers as he plowed through the game with that fastball on his grill. We’re getting the warning signs that this isn’t going to last before the disaster start, and yet, it’s the Reds Carpet + @TBR next. No way you’re getting off this train now.
Brayan Bello (BOS) @ STL (W) – 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 94 pitches.
Once again, Bello cannot find punchouts despite double-digit whiffs, but that’s fine. We love this outing in St. Louis, where the Cards failed to see a sinker strike they didn’t like (fourteen in play!) and that’s your ball game. Thank you Koufax for not stringing too many hits together. I’m not holding onto Bello if I started him here – DET, NYY, @TOR are next and that’s too meh for me.
Roki Sasaki (LAD) vs TEX (L) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 5 BBs, 6 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 94 pitches.
Oh cool, five walks from Sasaki, leading to just 12 outs on 94 pitches. How long are the Dodgers going to let this last before calling up River Ryan?
Cody Bolton (HOU) @ SEA (L) – 1.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 Hits, 4 BBs, 1 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 42 pitches.
This was horrific. Bolton hit his first batter, walked a second, allowed a run, making for a shaky first frame, but had to get pulled after walking the first three of the second. Jeeeez. Now that he’s pitched outside Coors, I can get a sense of his arsenal annnnd yep. We don’t want this.
Bubba Chandler (PIT) @ CHC (ND) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 91 pitches.
This is so much better. Two solo shots in the third came off poorly placed heaters, while he missed upstairs far less than his first two games, his changeup and sweeper were strike darlings, and his slider was good (not great) at 90 mph. This was a good lineup at Wrigley, and now he gets to hang out in PNC Park vs. Rays, @TEX, then home against the Cards. Oh baby. Get ready to start loving Bubba.
Zack Littell (WSN) @ MIL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 71 pitches.
Ehhhhh, this is so boring. Still a low pitch count, too.
Cam Schlittler (NYY) @ TBR (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 21 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 85 pitches.
Awwww, this puts a hitch on his AGA journey for now. He’ll get KCR and @BOS and hopefully 4/23 is his coronation day. Great Gallows Pole with absurd four-seamer dominance, though.
Zac Gallen (ARI) @ PHI (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 84 pitches.
Blegh. The gauntlet continues with TOR, SDP, @CHC and you can let him go for now. Don’t worry, he’ll still be there later and if not, you’re not missing out on this year’s summer blockbuster.
Adrian Houser (SFG) @ BAL (L) – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 88 pitches.
Womp womp. He’ll get @WSN and MIA up next, which could be better than this one as his velocity is still 95+ on sinkers and four-seamers, and not a start where he returns just 48% strikes on the sinker. Still consider him an option in deeper leagues and even your 12-teamers for a desperate QS/Win chance.
Noah Cameron (KCR) vs CHW (ND) – 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 67 pitches.
Whoa whoa whoa, against the White Sox?! Ohhhh, it was miserable rainy weather (at 64 degrees, for what it’s worth), leading to a near two tick drop on his heater. In fact, Jonathan Cannon followed Grant Taylor on the other side of this one and guess what he did? Three walks and a single before getting pulled. Not an easy day to pitch.
Jameson Taillon (CHC) vs PIT (ND) – 6.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 102 pitches.
Ten strikeouts and six runs?! What is this, a Noah Syndergaard start vs. the Padres from 2015? It was mostly a grand slam in the second. Ahhhh, right. Pretty cool to see Taillon rebound and find strikeouts on cutters, curves, and sweepers, but dang. That stings. He hosts the Mets up next and despite their weakened state, I’d be very careful.
Sandy Alcantara (MIA) @ DET (L) – 6.0 IP, 7 ER, 10 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 100 pitches.
Oh. So maybe it was just that he faced the White Sox and “Reds Carpet.” Or maybe it was a day where both his slider, changeup, and cutter failed to hit their spots, allowing for comfortable at-bats and too many hittable pitches to compensate. Sigh. Obviously we move on, but I hate seeing that this floor still exists.
Andre Pallante (STL) vs BOS (L) – 5.0 IP, 7 ER, 10 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 95 pitches.
Do not sign up for the AP course. You’re smarter than that. Smarter than an AP course? Yeah dude, you graduated a decade ago. Oh. Right.
Andrew Abbott (CIN) vs LAA (L) – 3.0 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 71 pitches.
This has been an atrocious season for Abbott, who now has a 13% strikeout rate to go with his 5.85 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. “HAISTBMBWT?! His command was simply awful here, with fastballs down the pipe or missing well out of the zone, and yet, I watched that first frame and five singles pushed him to 34 pitches early, with the final two liners as the only hard contact of the frame. He didn’t have the arsenal to get out of it, though. Incredibly fair. He put himself in a position to be unlucky. So what do we do? Why, try it one more time against the Twins, of course. This one got off to a horrible start and if he can’t handle the Twins away from Cincy, why, you know what you have to do. I really don’t think this will last for Abbott.
Tanner Bibee (CLE) @ ATL (L) – 4.2 IP, 8 ER, 11 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 93 pitches.
Sigh. Bibee simply doesn’t locate well enough and the extra vert doesn’t matter if he’s just hurling it down the pipe. The cutter would perform better if the changeup actually did what it was supposed to do (41% strikes across seventeen thrown is horrific), or if it had any fastball support. I don’t see how I can trust this after we just saw the same struggles last season. I wanted to believe the four-seamer was a difference maker, but the precision isn’t there to take advantage.
Max Scherzer (TOR) vs MIN (L) – 2.1 IP, 8 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 68 pitches.
Oh wow. Against the Twins, too. I don’t feel you have to hold onto Scherzer tightly, so move on if you’d like, though I still see him at 93 mph with a good enough change and slider to be competitive each game. Up to you if you want to roll the dice against the Diamondbacks and Guardians – he’ll be questionable starts for both.
Game of the Day
Ryne Nelson vs. Baltimore Orioles – I love watching his heater and I hope the secondaries come alive in Baltimore.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
