Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Sunday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Chase Dollander (COL) @ NYM (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 105 pitches.
I’ve had my eye on Chase Dollander for a few weeks now and we may be at the point where he’s startable even in Coors after getting through a tough first inning in Citi Field and recovering to go 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 105 pitches (W) against the Mets. But that’s the Mets. True, but he has one start in Coors against Atlanta (real test), then two outings outside Coors @PHI, @PIT. We’re at the point that there’s a shot he’s fine at home and clearly worthwhile out of it. Wild, I know.
How does he do it? Why a 98/99 mph four-seamer with an elite 1.9 HAVAA, of course. That mark decreases inside Coors (less vert, after all), which also lowers the 20″ of horizontal ride (Citi Field assisted, but still) and the 15″ vert in normal conditions is pretty dang awesome with his super low arm angle. Oh, and there’s an 87/88 mph gyro slider but with 7/8 inches of extra sweep (that’s hot) and a developing changeup + two slower breakers that go in-and-out. In fact, this wasn’t even the best version of Dollander, as his secondaries were unreliable for sub 50% strikes. That’s how good his upstairs heater is.
So go for it. There will be some bumps, sure, but he’s found his footing as of late. That heater is just too good and the chaotic command of last year has been polished enough to let him fly. I have no issue benching him for Coors vs. Atlanta (that’s terrifying), but the message here should be clear: Save for the elite offenses at home, Dollander is a clear start.
Let’s see how every other SP did Sunday:
Sean Burke (CHW) vs WSN (L) – 7.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 76 pitches.
Oh wow, that’s a Gold Star for Burke. The four-seamer wasn’t exceptional and his breakers were not well spotted, but his sinker got inside and helped his heaters go 12/13 outs in play. Yer welcome, Burke. Koufax, can you let me know where your eye will gaze a day or two beforehand? Absolutely not. Worth a shot. I’m not ready to jump in here with @SDP next.
Foster Griffin (WSN) @ CHW (ND) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 95 pitches.
The CrySox are a lovely thing, but credit to Griffin for executing fantastic cutters inside to RHB and lovely sweepers away to LHB. With the Brewers and Marlins up next, I understand if you need to hold. He’s not a 30% putaway rate guy (sweepers nailed it to LHB + the rare good changeup n friends) and the floor is very much still here, but feel free to Vargas Rule all you want until he settles in as a 19% strikeout rate Toby.
Kyle Harrison (MIL) vs PIT (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 12 Ks – 23 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 101 pitches.
Hot dang, look at you! A Golden Goal against the Pirates is something else, following three frames of shaking off rust last week. This was a start of changeups + curveballs living low with ease (65% strike rates!) while the four-seamer feasted upstairs. This was mostly against RHB and the Nationals will likely send at least three LHB his way next start, but I’m still down. I just wish he didn’t have to deal with the Yankees after. Be thrilled with Harrison, just note that he’s likely going to still carry the Cherry Bomb tag moving forward.
Justin Wrobleski (LAD) vs CHC (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 109 pitches.
This is wild. He’s averaging five whiffs per game (6% SwStr rate) but batters have yet to hit a longball against him and like an indie polka radio station, the hits aren’t coming. He lost another tick of velocity (93 mph), is still heavily two-pitch with four-seamer/slider, and I feel like Mr. Pinkman. He can’t keep getting away with it! But sure, Vargas Rule all you like against the Cardinals. I don’t blame you.
Chris Sale (ATL) vs PHI (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 100 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Ayyy, the sinker is back to LHB and it returned a trio of outs! And the changeup was fantastic to RHB! This is lovely.
Max Meyer (MIA) @ SFG (ND) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 77 pitches.
I don’t quite understand why Meyer elected to throw 29% four-seamers at a 55% strike rate instead of pummeling the zone with more of his slider and sweeper (yes, I understand changing velocity n all, but do you have to throw it so much when breakers are this good?), but we obviously are happy with this. Now it’s the floundering Phillies + Orioles and I’m kinda iffy on it. He’s not blowing us away while the floor is still present, averaging five innings per start. I’m fine holding, just not chasing it.
J.T. Ginn (ATH) @ TEX (ND) – 3.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 46 pitches.
Ginn left this one with right arm soreness and that’s just…ugh. Life isn’t fair.
Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) vs NYY (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 96 pitches.
WHOA. Okay, wait. This actually makes sense. Excuse me?! Those with a Cherry Bomb nature are less about the teams they face and more about overcoming their own battles. They have the stuff to dominate on a given night, it’s mostly a matter of if they’ll have it locked in or not. Facing a tough team means the floor is lower than usual, but the ceiling is always present. So what was that ceiling? Hitting his spots to LHB via four-seamers up and curveballs snagging the outside corner. Sweepers and cutters were kinda involved, too, and he left with four frozen Yankee LHB looking at sweepers and curveballs curling back over the plate + four more via whiffs on the deuce. That’s the difference in this one – well, some good fortune in play, too – and I can’t tell you that it’ll be there a lot. I can tell you he’s a strikeout upside play who may be turning a corner on the feel for his breakers. The cutter hasn’t become the glue it was in the past, though, and I’m a little hesitant to jump in @BOS and @CIN without that cutter doing a whole lot so far.
Michael McGreevy (STL) vs SEA (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 98 pitches.
This is one of the more exceptional McGreevy starts you’ll see all year, and is it time to treat him seriously? It’s a 0.90 WHIP with a sub 3.00 ERA through six starts now and…oh. LAD, @SDP, Sacré Verde. Welp, maybe later.
Jose Quintana (COL) @ NYM (W) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 85 pitches.
The dude was so happy to be back at Citi Field. What a treat, he said, throwing his sixth low curveball for an easy out. I wish I could be here forever. You can’t, Quintana. Not anymore.
Nolan McLean (NYM) vs COL (L) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 91 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Let’s be real, this is worse than we expected against Rockie Road, and we just have to live with that. He’s feeling the curve to LHB now, even if it returned a low 50% strike rate. I wonder how that will pan out.
Connelly Early (BOS) @ BAL (W) – 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 92 pitches.
That’s Early. A solid Holly who could flirt with AGA in time when he gets more reps utilizing his entire arsenal in the bigs. Keep riding him and don’t look at the rates right now. It’s all nonsense. This is the guy he’s supposed to be. But his slider and sweeper were over the plate to LHB and the sinker had a 44% strike rate. My apologies, I needed to clear my throat. Ahem. These are the ratios he’s supposed to be.
Michael King (SDP) @ ARI (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 106 pitches.
Wow, maybe the Rockies should trade for King? He lived around the edges and the Sneks obliged with plenty of chases out of the zone and it’s lovely to see a 68% 2-strike rate, allowing for the Ks to flow. Please keep the wide arsenal and precision there for the White Sox up next.
Kumar Rocker (TEX) vs ATH (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 84 pitches.
Don’t you dare fool these innocent people, Rocker. But I have a 3.38 ERA. You throw a mid 83/84 slider and a mediocre 94 mph sinker for 70%+ of your pitches. This isn’t real. What is real. What follows Mont. What. STOP TRICKING THESE INNOCENT PEOPLE.
Emerson Hancock (SEA) @ STL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 94 pitches.
This was the Shag Rug – the day when Hancock lost his four-seamer feel (44% strikes, 1/16 whiffs) and the sweeper was horrendous (3/14 strikes), showcasing the floor. And I’m shocked it was as good as it was. The sinker took over for nearly 70% strikes, the changeup appeared and worked to LHB, and the cutter was…meh. I hope this gives him the confidence for when this occurs again in the future and we keep rolling vs. KCR and @CHW.
Rhett Lowder (CIN) vs DET (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 94 pitches.
Oh dang, we got seven strikeouts up in this? The slider cooked to RHB and helped return 6/27 whiffs on the pitch overall, while the sinker quietly churned outs away to LHB. Don’t get excited about him – he won’t get these strikeouts often – but recognize the man as the Toby he is.
Patrick Corbin (TOR) vs CLE (ND) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 84 pitches.
That fifth inning was rough with four hits knocking him out of the game and it’s truly too bad as Corbin, once again, was proving himself as a decent 15-team Toby. Now with the Twins and Rays ahead, I wonder if there’s something there. Not for 12-teamers at all, though.
Jesse Scholtens (TB) vs MIN (W) – 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 15% CSW, 72 pitches.
We got exactly what we wanted – a cheap Win from a follower. But I needed butter on my bread. You ordered breadsticks at a Thai restaurant, my friend. I thought I was family. NOT HERE.
Landen Roupp (SFG) vs MIA (W) – 7.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 103 pitches.
A three-run shot on a low 0-2 curveball that got too much of the plate in the second was the only blemish here, where Roupp otherwise refused to allow a baserunner until he walked his final batter in the eighth. What a dude. Up the List you go today with the Rays and Pirates up next.
Kyle Bradish (BAL) vs BOS (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 88 pitches.
Blegh. Yes, he obviously needs to fall down The List. No, I do not believe he’ll go 1/31 whiffs on his slider often (if ever again) this season. He’s really on the struggle bus right now and for a guy whose value rests so heavily on his breaking pitches, he cannot afford to go 41% strikes on seventeen curveballs. I still want to consider Bradish a buy-low, though two starts against the Yankees in three games sure is a tough welcome party. Still, I’d float offers. For those with him now, I know it’s hard to hold, but I think he’s too valuable to let loose. Just stash him for a week, start him against the Marlins, and take it from there. But he looks terrible! He can’t command! Very true. That’s how he is now. Humans are not always the same thing and he has too long of a track record being much better than this.
Keider Montero (DET) @ CIN (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 86 pitches.
This is the exact line that will make you forget it ever happened. I don’t see a reason to target him for a start against the Rangers.
Reid Detmers (LAA) @ KCR (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 93 pitches.
He faced three batters in the sixth – single, HR, walk – and hit the showers. Wait, he was dope through five frames?! Sure was. A textbook Careful, Icarus. I’m easily holding for the Mets next.
Kodai Senga (NYM) vs COL (L) – 2.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 50 pitches.
Alright, Senga, I tried. I really tried. This was Rockie Road. Your four-seamer was down to 95 mph. Your cutter was thrown six times despite your terrible four-seamer command and the pitch returned a pair of outs once you started trying it in the second and third. We can’t do this. I hope this goodbye isn’t for ever ever. For ever ever.
Slade Cecconi (CLE) @ TOR (L) – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 90 pitches.
This was a Careful, Icarus with his final two runs coming in off a single + HR to lead off the sixth. So close to getting the funding for the rec center Slade Bridge meetings…That said, the cutter velocity was back up to 88.5 mph (1-2 ticks!) and my eyebrows are raised as I type this. Sacré Verde is too risky, which is kinda great – we can see if that velocity holds to maybe return for the Royals after.
Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) @ TBR (L) – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 78 pitches.
I sincerely hope the Twins move on from SWR when Abel returns. Don’t you dare take Prielipp away from me.
Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT) @ MIL (L) – 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 81 pitches.
Womp womp. It was all cool for three frames, then the dam broke as Koufax chuckled, with five hits + a catcher’s interference shoving Mlodzinski out of the game. I’m not sure why he only threw nine curveballs – it’s your best pitch! – and yet, it’s Reds Carpet, @SFG, Rockie Road up next. I guess you have to in a 15-teamer, but in a 12-teamer? I’m still tepid.
Shota Imanaga (CHC) @ LAD (L) – 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 100 pitches.
Aces gon—oh come on. This was supposed to be another start to validate your label. Why did you suddenly have such a terrible feel for your four-seamer? At least it was 92 mph, but a 43% strike rate and just 1/35 whiffs is really not you. At least the splitter is still dope and the sweeper is mostly great, save for some that hung over the plate a bit too much. Whatareyagonnado. Stupid Dodgers.
Ryne Nelson (ARI) vs SDP (ND) – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 93 pitches.
This was in Mexico City, and I didn’t expect it to go well, regardless of the nightmare of his previous outing. It shouldn’t be a shock that 5 ER came off a pair of longballs in such a HR-friendly environment. Brush it aside and I’m holding Ryne, even with the Cubs up next. It’s the Mets and @TEX after and I truly believe in the fella. These two games are obvious anomalies.
Aaron Nola (PHI) @ ATL (L) – 4.2 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 101 pitches.
Blegh. Atlanta is legit and hit two longballs early to mess up the game in a hurry. That said, Nola still doesn’t have legit fastball command and it’s a huge issue. The good news? The curveball is legit and the changeup is down. Maybe that’s enough for the Marlins up next. Don’t feel like you have to hold onto Nola, you know.
Luis Gil (NYY) @ HOU (L) – 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 0 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 83 pitches.
Yeaaaaah. Carlos Rodón is on the verge of returning and this may be the last we see of Gil in the rotation for a while. I wonder how he’d look as a set-up man. UPDATE: Gil was demoted after this game.
Seth Lugo (KCR) vs LAA (ND) – 6.1 IP, 7 ER, 14 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 97 pitches.
Sometimes, the Vargas Rule ends gracefully. Other times, it’s in a flurry of two innings mixed with a HR and the good grace of Koufax disappearing in a flash. We also saw a two-tick dip in velocity on the curve to just 75 mph and that’s a little scary. We’ve seen both sides of the coin now – the great fortune and the misfortune – and I’d wager that Lugo is more on this side than the sub 2.00 ERA and sub 1.00 WHIP. However, he gets @TEA, CLE, @CHW in his next three starts. Surely he’s worth holding for a date in Seattle to make sure this is over.
Game of the Day
Luis Castillo vs. Connor Prielipp – I’m just happy to watch more of Prieliip. Sorry Casty.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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