Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Sunday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Daniel Lynch IV (KCR) vs TEX (ND) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 74 pitches.
Remember Daniel Lynch IV? He’s back on the mound for the Royals and despite a rocky first frame of 34 pitches, he still managed to return a gem in Kansas City against the mighty Rangers: 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 74 pitches. That’s right, he needed just 40 pitches across four innings after loading the bases in the first, ending with six strikeouts overall. And yet, I’m not interested.
I don’t like his fastballs. His four-seamer comes without any exceptional attributes (16″ of iVB is the best quality) at 92 mph, his sinker earned just four called strikes, and both went 0/42 whiffs on the night. Ouch. There is promise in his slider that returned 4/13 whiffs as he spotted some down-and-gloveside to both RHB and LHB alike, but a sub 50% strike rate meant his heaters and changeups were forced to do all of the work.
That changeup was the saving grace – a 92% strike rate offering that provided many outs and kept him competitive – but it’s not a filthy pitch and without explosive velocity to match it, it’s an assistant, not a leader.
A line like this makes you wonder if a “post-hype” breakout could be coming. Sadly, with 92 mph fastballs and a dearth of electricity in his arsenal, Lynch seems like a Toby at best.
Let’s see how every other SP did Sunday:
Dean Kremer (BAL) @ CIN (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 93 pitches.
That’s three straight fantastic outings for Kremer, who returned to his cutter/four-seamer excellence with 11/65 whiffs between them. Ugh, does that mean I’m back in given his Win potential? It’s the Sneks up next and maybe that works…I guess the Top 100 this week is Dean’s List.
Javier Assad (CHC) vs MIL (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 94 pitches.
The Vargas Rule keeps chugging along despite all signs of lady luck wrapping a warm shawl around his shoulders. I know how the wind can chill. Yeah, my dude Wind is super chill. ANYWAY, the Pirates are next and rules are rules.
James Paxton (LAD) vs ATL (W) – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 17% CSW, 84 pitches.
Huge props to Paxton here, even if it was a whole lot of BABIP fortune at just 17% CSW and three strikeouts. I still question how much longer Paxton is made for the Dodgers rotation (just 3 whiffs on 34 swings off his four-seamer is atrocious), and I wouldn’t risk this against the Padres.
Carlos Carrasco (CLE) vs LAA (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 71 pitches.
Atta boy Carrasco. I didn’t think you had it in you, especially at just 71 pitches, but guess what? His 90/91 mph fastball turned into 93 mph in this one, with +2/3 ticks across the board. HOT DANG! The magic isn’t fully back, but a 17% SwStr rate across all his secondaries is a welcome sight, especially for an arm capable of going six frames. I’m not sure what got into him, but why can’t he take advantage of the CrySox next? Can you keep up the velocity?!
Garrett Crochet (CHW) @ STL (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 88 pitches.
After shocking the Twins with his changeup last week, Crochet faced more RHB this week and…barely touched the changeup. This was a game of fastball/cutter domination against a poor lineup and he cruised for a Win. Though, this showing wasn’t without faults (8/18 slider strikes is rough) and I hope his slider and slowball bring more to the table against the Guardians.
Cooper Criswell (BOS) @ MIN (ND) – 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 80 pitches.
That’s cool, but only if you were able to go two more outs for a Win. It’s not fair y’all. Give the dang man his Win. His approach is the Canibal McSanchez paired with low changeups, sweepers, and sinkers, and that can certainly work, but it’s awfully akin to a Toby. Fortunately, he’s now at 80+ pitches and this has the makings of a decent stream against the Nats next time out.
Matthew Liberatore (STL) vs CHW (ND) – 3.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 50 pitches.
Hey, that’s pretty dang good from Liberatore, even if he was limited to just 50 pitches. His slider and cutter were effective…but the overall command was highly suspect and it’s a clear Blame it on the White Sox. Don’t get sucked in, especially with the short leash.
Jon Gray (TEX) @ KCR (ND) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 99 pitches.
It’s pretty bonkers to me how Gray dominates with his slider and nothing else. Seriously, he got 13/34 slider whiffs, while his four-seamer returned just three whiffs on 29 swings and Koufax above let him live to tell the tale. Like a Jodie Foster Sci-Fi marathon, that’s a whole lot of contact. Be careful trusting this Cherry Bomb.
Nestor Cortes (NYY) vs DET (ND) – 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 97 pitches.
Yesssss. Sure, Blame it on the Tigers, but a 48% CSW sweeper with well-placed cutters is exactly what we want to see from Cortes. He’s been one of the more efficient pitchers we’ve seen this year, too, and a start against the Rays this week looks all kinds of pretty. Let it ride, let it ride.
Tarik Skubal (DET) @ NYY (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 12 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 44% CSW, 96 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. A Golden Goal with a stupid good changeup, this time actually landing it down and just out of the zone often. Still strange to see the four-seamer lack the same firepower, but his sinker has stepped up as a fantastic called strike offering (46% CSW, 36% called strikes!) and 10/12 slider strikes go a long way. And guess what? 97.3 mph four-seamers. HE’S LOCKED IN Y’ALL.
Griffin Canning (LAA) @ CLE (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 87 pitches.
I have to hand it to Canning, he avoided the heart of the plate beautifully in this game. He’s done a better job this year keeping his four-seamers away from center-cut, and to see 32 sliders without one inducing a ball in play (10 whiffs!) is pretty dang cool. Changeups + curves did the rest of the work and if this is the Canning we see regularly, I’m all in. Problem is, it’s not and all I can do right now is hope for 80% secondaries moving forward. Keep your eye on that start against the Royals next.
Hunter Brown (HOU) vs SEA (ND) – 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 91 pitches.
Each start feels like a loot box with Brown. What do we have today…Here, it’s four-seamers landing arm-side nearly exclusively (both north and south), with scattered changeups, cutters, and sliders, merged with curveballs that barely landed above the knees. Is that good? Nah, it’s a General Disarray and we’re still twiddling our thumbs, wondering when the Astros will send him down to the minors to figure it out. It feels like Spencer Arrighetti should take his roster spot once Cristian Javier returns.
Sixto Sánchez (MIA) @ OAK (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 65 pitches.
He’s still limited, the slider is now an 83 mph “cutter” at 1/15 whiffs, and his 93 mph four-seamer is below average. Sooooo, drop him? Why was he on your team in the first place?!
MacKenzie Gore (WSN) vs TOR (ND) – 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 76 pitches.
Four more runs were unearned, capped off by a Vlady grand slam, and while his secondaries were not what we wanted them to be, we should be optimistic given his four-seamer’s great shape and locations up in the strike zone. We’re nearing the end of his schedule gauntlet with a start in Fenway and I’m stoked for Gore’s final four months of the year.
Joe Ryan (MIN) vs BOS (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 95 pitches.
Aces gonna allow just four hits, but of course one was a two-run shot, while the other two were a pair of well-timed doubles. That’s Baseball, Suzyn. His four-seamer is still great, the secondaries are good, and with some luck his way, he dominates more. We dig this.
Bailey Falter (PIT) vs COL (ND) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 80 pitches.
Ehhhh, it isn’t enough. I guess we just consider Falter a desperate streamer and move on after two poor showings against weak offenses.
Freddy Peralta (MIL) @ CHC (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 6 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 97 pitches.
I saw the line and thought “Ugh, the four-seamer is still wonky” and yet, he had fantastic pitch separation here, with his four-seamer located exclusively upstairs, but a bit too high at times. I’ll take it all day – this was Peralta being far more in control of his arsenal and pitching better with intent. Ignore the 1-2 tick velocity drop on the secondaries, this is a better version of Peralta than his last two starts.
Ryan Pepiot (TBR) vs NYM (ND) – 2.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 44 pitches.
He took a comebacker to the leg and went out of the game. That said, his overall command was horrible before the hard-struck liner, and I hope he’s alright. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Rays rested him for a start or two.
Taijuan Walker (PHI) vs SFG (W) – 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 90 pitches.
Hot dang, look at you! We’ll take a PQS with a Win from Walker on all days ending in “-day” and with seven strikeouts on just six whiffs?! NOW YOU’RE JUST SPOILING ME. Pretty bananas to see this with just a 90/91 mph heater, too, and while the Marlins look like a tantalizing start after this, I’m not sure I trust the skills yet.
Logan Webb (SFG) @ PHI (L) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 98 pitches.
Aces gonna disappoint and that’s life. So the changeup allowed a three-run shot to Bryce and that was mostly it here. There were some solid sweepers for whiffs (ohhh…?!) and I hope that sticks around, but mainly, this was damage done on one pitch and that’s a wrap. Whatareyagonnado.
Max Fried (ATL) @ LAD (L) – 7.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 108 pitches.
Aces gonna allow a pair of two-run shots and ruin his great game against the Dodgers. The changeup is coming back, his velocity is nearing 95 mph again, and his overall command is solid. I’m very much in.
Bryce Miller (SEA) @ HOU (ND) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 82 pitches.
Wow, Bryce actually located his four-seamer beautifully in this one, but he earned just 1/21 whiffs on his secondaries. You gotta figure it out Bryce, just something. Then the world is your oyster. Don’t you mean oyster? That’s what I said. No, you said it like moisture. …how can you hear that?!
Nick Lodolo (CIN) vs BAL (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 85 pitches.
Welp, the Orioles smack LHP and this was Cin City. At least the curveball is still dope (39% CSW and 9/28 whiffs), while the changeup held a 67% strike rate. Just get that slowball down, fella.
Ryne Nelson (ARI) vs SDP (W) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 99 pitches.
His four-seamer is looking really good and I’m shocked the Sneks let him go 99 pitches. But this was a terrible start outside of his Win. Yeaaaah, that’s the fault of his secondaries and not the best command around. But that fastball shape! So fun. Just let him sit on the wire for the Orioles next and we’ll take it from there.
Luis Severino (NYM) @ TBR (ND) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 6 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 98 pitches.
Womp womp. Six walks ain’t it, though he threw more competitive pitches than the tally would suggest. His four-seamer missed close to the zone too often (17/33 strikes = Bleeeegh) and he’s turning away from the cutter (just five thrown) in favor of 29% sweepers…which is kinda funny since Eno and I talk about Severino as the opposite of Yankee pitchers like Schmidt. Treat him like a Toby and let him sit on the wire for Atlanta, if not longer.
Joe Boyle (OAK) vs MIA (L) – 1.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 35 pitches.
J’Oh Boyle. This is all I think about when I see Boyle walk three and strike out just one.
Ryan Feltner (COL) @ PIT (L) – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 85 pitches.
You had two starts on the road against middling offenses and not one came through. Like a broken Oreo, the stuff is interesting, the organization is not.
Alek Manoah (TOR) @ WSN (ND) – 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 92 pitches.
Manoah’s arc continues for another story of failed redemption, here chucking so many lackluster pitches down the pipe and failing to find the zone when needed. Just give this one a rest until we get proper signs of a return.
Matt Waldron (SDP) @ ARI (L) – 3.0 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 65 pitches.
Remember kids, Don’t Trust A Knuckleballer.
Game of the Day
Walker Buehler vs. Miami Marlins – 3x Top 40 pitchers are returning from the IL, but we haven’t seen Buehler properly since 2021. Get hyped.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)