Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Saturday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Zack Littell (WSN) @ ARI (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 64 pitches.
Zack Littell is doing his best to regain our trust as a deep streamer, allowing no more than two earned runs in each of his last six outings. In the Arizona desert, the righty extended that streak, turning in 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 64 pitches (W). However, after early-season struggles and without support for his recent success, it’s too little too late.
If you’re unfamiliar with Littell, he’s a guy the Rays turned into a decent Toby back in 2023 by directing him to go Dancing With The Disco. It worked for a couple of years, but after signing with the Nationals via free agency over the offseason, the early returns weren’t pretty, as he pitched to a 7.85 ERA through his first six games. During that rough stretch, it was clear he had lost the feel for his signature breaker and was unable to find support for his tertiary splitter to keep batters off his hittable four-seamer.
As Littell has slowly turned his season around, the feel for those secondaries has returned, but the shape of them is altered. For starters, his splitter has constantly displayed inconsistent movement profiles, making it difficult for him to command. The lack of command means fewer strikes and whiffs. That emphasizes the need for his slider and four-seamer to be pristine. Now, it gets interesting.
The slider has always been more of a cutter, but he’s leaned into it this year, throwing it with more vert and velo. An unfamiliar movement profile has made it difficult for him to find a feel for the zone, which hasn’t impacted its whiffability, but has reduced its ability to earn strikes. The reduced strike rate has been amplified by a similar trend from four-seamers, exacerbated further by volatile splitters, producing a five-year-high 7% walk rate.
The reliance on his four-seamers landing in the zone to make up for the lack of strikes from his secondaries has been a direct factor in reducing its swinging strike rate by more than half, leading to a corresponding drop in strikeout rate. Even during this hot streak, his strikeout rate has remained comfortably below 20%, making him ultra-reliant on balls in play.
In this start, Littell’s locations were all over the place, but he found the zone often with four-seamers and sliders (with support from the oft-forgotten sinker). Yayy, right? Wrong. That meant a lot of balls in play, and he was saved by the grace of Koufax, going 11/13 outs on balls in play. It’s an unsustainable approach that has been a theme during his hot streak, as he’s gone a combined 82/107 outs on balls in play (.234 BABIP) while allowing just two long balls.
I’d love to point to the results and say we can trust Littell as a streamer in standard leagues. However, with a heavy reliance on unsustainable luck on balls in play, driven by a slider-turned-cutter failing to find the zone, without the support from a volatile splitter, exposing a hittable heater, we shouldn’t be testing the continuation of his Vargas Rule against the Mariners next. (View Game Card)
Let’s see how every other SP did Saturday:
Tanner Bibee (CLE) @ TEX (W) – 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 87 pitches.
Sometimes you get lucky, and sometimes you get really lucky. Bibee needs the latter to get us interested, and he got it in Texas. Koufax smiled down upon him with rays of sunshine, angelic choirs, and a Gold Star, granting him 19/22 outs on balls in play. More innings pitched than whiffs is all kinds of fortunate, and let’s hope we can all get this lucky sometimes. (View Game Card)
Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) @ COL (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 98 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Not even Coors can stop him. He averaged a season-high 101.3 mph on four-seamers! What an absolute beast. Beast?! How dare you! It’s a compliment in this context. (View Game Card)
Bryce Miller (SEA) @ DET (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 94 pitches.
Yesss! The Mariners have finally come to their senses, ending this silly game of piggyback and going with a six-man rotation. That means Miller gets a full start’s worth of pitches, and he did exactly as we’d hoped. Four-seamers cooked while being propped up by sliders and splitters. It’s ascension time! (View Game Card)
Ben Brown (CHC) vs SFG (ND) – 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 87 pitches.
The hot streak continues. Brown must be watching the Finals, because he keeps ballin’. Even sitting a tick down, his signature breaker was hard to hit, with six whiffs and 34% CSW. He didn’t even command well here, with plenty of curveballs landing in the upper half and heaters combining for 52% strikes. This wasn’t weak contact producing easy outs in the field. Nope, this was 58% hard contact and a wink from Koufax returning 11 outs on 12 balls in play. The unsustainability is palpable. With Coors on deck, does regression hit all at once? (View Game Card)
Lake Bachar (MIA) vs TBR (ND) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 38 pitches.
This was a bullpen game for the Marlins, and Bachar did his best impression of a starter. Ahh, look at me, I’m a starter! I throw three perfect innings, then spend the rest of the night sulking on the bench. Ummm. How did I do? The pitching was great! The acting…not so much. (View Game Card)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) vs LAA (W) – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 93 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. The intent to induce whiffs upstairs with four-seamers is still present. Strikeouts will flow when his putaway rate stabilizes north of the 33% mark on which it landed in this outing. Oh well, we’ll take those ratios all day! (View Game Card)
Nolan McLean (NYM) @ SDP (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 101 pitches.
We’re getting there. That’s still more walks than he had in any of his first eight starts this year, as the command of his sweeper is still missing. He leaned more heavily on sinkers and four-seamers to prevent him from falling behind, and while that meant more balls in play, he did a great job of mitigating damage. 67% weak contact and 53% grounders led to 12 outs on 15 balls in play. If only his cutter hadn’t disappeared (50% strikes) after leading the way in his last start, he’d have avoided the inflated walk rate. I can’t say “HE’S BACK!” until we see all three fastball variants earning strikes and his sweeper cooking. It may be tough for him to find his way through the barrage of tough offenses ahead, with ATL, @CIN, and CHC next. (View Game Card)
Joe Ryan (MIN) vs KCR (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 102 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Whiffs didn’t flow as he failed to find the feel for his secondaries, but that’s what makes Ryan an ace. His fastball is so good that it can dominate all on its own. Imagine what he could do with The Janitor’s sweeper! The whole school district would be spotless for weeks! (View Game Card)
Landen Roupp (SFG) @ CHC (ND) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 98 pitches.
The Roupp naysayers have been vocal recently. I don’t blame them, he’s looked rough recently, as his April command has faded with the incoming Summer. Just like my cheap energy bills. Why is AC so expensive?! Roupp got away with plenty of hittable sinkers down the pipe against righties, recording an out on all five balls put into play. The command against LHB was much more acceptable, but the results were the opposite. Wait, was it opposite day yesterday? Nah, The Miz would’ve gotten blown up if so. I think it’s sometime in late January. LHB got a look at Roupp’s pristine BSB approach, as he nailed heaters upstairs and pulled the string on changeups below the zone. The slowball returned six whiffs and 32% CSW, but also accounted for two of his three hits on the day. The feel for his curve that evaded him in last start’s blowup is still missing, but if Roupp keeps throwing fastball strikes and displaying a great feel for changeups, we can trust him against CHC x2 next. (View Game Card)
Griffin Canning (SDP) vs NYM (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 86 pitches.
Alright, Canning, you may have fooled us in your debut, but we’re not going to let success against the Mets with sub-60% strikes overall persuade us into believing in you again. Besides, you’re still not displaying the ability to hit 96 mph, nor are you exhibiting impressive separation between four-seamers and changeups via improved slowball movement. The GC has blown up too many times to draw my attention. (View Game Card)
Luinder Avila (KCR) @ MIN (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 70 pitches.
The Royals are giving Avila a chance to properly start with Kris Bubic and Cole Ragans on the IL, and he’s now allowed just one earned run in each of the first two starts in which he’s qualified for a decision. 97 mph velo on a mediocre sinker allowed him to return 92% strikes without any damage, but sliders couldn’t find the zone vs RHB. A slew of unremarkable secondaries and cutter-like four-seamers somehow avoided damage against opposite-handed batters as well. The lack of command or outstanding pitches means Avila is not the next guy to pick up off your wire. (View Game Card)
Tatsuya Imai (HOU) vs ATH (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 92 pitches.
At a certain point, you can’t keep ignoring results. That’s a Golden Goal for Imai as he can’t stop producing interesting results without doing anything interesting with his two-pitch mix. In his last four starts, we’ve seen a 19-whiff Gallows Pole, six shutout innings, a 110-pitch quality start, and now this whiff/CSW dominance. It’s still just BSB with two-plane four-seamers and backward sliders, breaking the Huascar Rule. As long as he remains reticent to throw a third offering more than 10% of the time, I can’t buy into the success. (View Game Card)
Spencer Miles (TOR) vs BAL (W) – 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 73 pitches.
As usual, Miles was deployed after an opener. This time, it was Braydon Fisher who tossed a scoreless first before turning the ball over. Miles got a passive Orioles lineup willing to let him fill up the zone with sinkers. He took advantage, stealing 10 called strikes with the heater. However, it was stretched thin due to his inability to consistently locate his signature curve, nor find support in the strike department from four-seamers. The O’s did all their damage against the sinker, smacking a solo shot in the second before scoring an inherited run that reached on a single off a sinker in the sixth. With Dylan Cease returning this week and Simeon Woods Richardson expected to join the rotation, Miles may be out of a job before getting another start. (View Game Card)
Zach Agnos (COL) vs MIL (L) – 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 57 pitches.
This Legends Z-A DLC is no fun. HAISTBMBWT?! These croissants aren’t going to butter themselves, and the mountain air makes them so dry. (View Game Card)
Spencer Strider (ATL) vs PIT (W) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 14% CSW, 84 pitches.
Strider’s fastball isn’t what it once was. It failed to induce a single whiff while falling to 94 mph in the fourth and fifth frames. It didn’t help that he couldn’t find a consistent feel for his slider, leading to wild locations way outside, too far down, or in the upper half. Changeups and curveballs failed to step up to save the day, combining for 44% strikes. The combination of those three factors led to the unsightly 14% CSW that would usually have us questioning his next start…if it wasn’t @ NYM followed by SFG. Roll with him there, but understand, this isn’t SPENCER STRIDER. The ceiling is reduced, and the floor is much less digestible. Maybe stop eating the floor? Maybe mind your own business! (View Game Card)
Sean Burke (CHI) @ PHI (W) – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 5 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 90 pitches.
Brandon Eisert opened for Burke, and it didn’t really do him any favors. He couldn’t find anything to support his typically excellent four-seamer. Breakers combined for 43% strikes, and even sinkers couldn’t find the zone. It hurts seeing the hype-inducing 96 mph velo from his last start disappear, and my eyes are burning at the prospect of facing LAD and @NYY next. Who’s cutting onions? It’s Burke…he’s planning on sautéeing them and serving up sliders to his opponents this week. (View Game Card)
Matthew Liberatore (STL) vs CIN (ND) – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 84 pitches.
The increased fastball velo and BSB approach that had me suggesting we could stream Liberatore on the Roku as he strolled down the Reds Carpet was merely TMZ propaganda. The heater lost a tick of velo, an inch of vert, and its precision upstairs. Meanwhile, secondaries combined for just 48% strikes, landing in the top half or above the zone more than half the time. This ain’t it. (View Game Card)
Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) vs WSN (L) – 6.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 92 pitches.
E-Rod has been on cruise control all year, commanding changeups exceptionally. He was zooming in the left lane with a two-run homer in the first firmly in the rearview mirror by the seventh frame. WOOP WOOP. Blue and red flashing lights accompanied a leadoff solo shot. He grounded out of a ticket against the next batter, but then his expired registration led to a triple, and the trooper asked him to step out of the vehicle. The inherited runner scored, and E-Rod was lucky to get away with merely a warning. Careful, Icarus. (View Game Card)
Keider Montero (DET) vs SEA (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 15% CSW, 79 pitches.
The Mariners pack a punch against righties outside of T-Mobile Park. Montero was unable to channel his inner Muhammad Ali, floating four-seamers in the zone, and getting stung by a homer. Without any overwhelming options, he was lucky to survive five frames with so much contact. HAISTBMBWT?! (View Game Card)
Nick Lodolo (CIN) @ STL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 95 pitches.
It’s been frustrating rostering Lodolo through his season-opening injury and his subsequent, ceremonial shaking off of the rust. It’s not fair to group this start in with that frustration, though. He maintained a great feel for his secondaries with command of heaters upstairs. Blame Koufax as Lodolo got Singled Out. All but one of the hits against him were singles, and the one exception was a solo shot in the fifth. Expect him to get right back to being a step above the best options on the wire in his next start against the Snakes. (View Game Card)
Shane McClanahan (TBR) @ MIA (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 81 pitches.
McShane had four one-hit innings under his belt before a leadoff dinger in the fifth knocked him out of his rhythm. He got Singled Out from then on, with six hits, a walk, and a hit-by-pitch across the next nine batters. He was lucky to watch just one inherited runner score after exiting the sixth with the bases loaded. The single-digit whiff total suggests that he didn’t have his best command, but he deserved better than a .500 BABIP regardless. (View Game Card)
Jack Leiter (TEX) vs CLE (L) – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 92 pitches.
I hope you like your PEAS mushy! Leiter walked all over them, with secondaries returning just 54% strikes. It wasn’t enough to support a heater in the zone that was hunted for a J-Ram homer. Leiter’s birthday was in April, so there’s no hope he’ll be wearing anything other than his red, white, and blue flannel the rest of the year. What a HIPSTER. (View Game Card)
Kyle Bradish (BAL) @ TOR (L) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 81 pitches.
That’s the first stumble from Bradish in over a month. His east-west approach with sinkers and sliders worked for the most part, but the batted ball luck here was as unfortunate as I’ve ever seen. Nine hits on 15 balls in play for a .600 BABIP is off the unlucky charts. Yeah, curveballs returned just 33% strikes, but this was a clear case of Koufax forgetting about him. Don’t think twice about starting him against SEA x2 next. (View Game Card)
Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) @ ATL (L) – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 86 pitches.
Ashcraft was a little too friendly, trusting Hotlanta to leave his four-seamers alone as he placed them in the zone 83% of the time. They hunted the heater, belting four hits and a homer against it, supporting the claim that the Empty Velocity on the pitch lends it to being more hittable than other heaters with similar readings on the radar gun. His .474 BABIP was unsustainable, but he can’t expect his four-seamer to get away with sitting middle-middle at 40%+ usage. Trust your breakers, my dude, and earn everyone’s trust back by dominating MIA next. (View Game Card)
Andrew Painter (PHI) vs CHW (L) – 4.2 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 93 pitches.
Recognizing the shortcomings of his fastballs, Painter cut back on their usage to emphasize splitters and breakers. What he didn’t account for is that his command of those pitches makes them just as hittable when he has to rely on them sitting in the zone without the heaters there to prop up the strike rate. Splitters and sliders combined for nine whiffs and 40% CSW, but also surrendered four hits and a homer. Even at sub-30% usage, four-seamers and sinkers were still crushed, also surrendering four hits and a homer. This Painter named Andy won’t compete with Warhol. (View Game Card)
Jack Kochanowicz (LAA) @ LAD (L) – 0.1 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 38 pitches.
How do you spell Kochanowicz? With one K! That’s back-to-back outings with just one punchout. We didn’t expect much from him in Hollywood, but this was absolutely disastrous. Enough to have the Angels reconsidering him as a starter. Which says a lot, given how pitching-needy they’ve been for the last decade. Avoid him until he convinces us otherwise. (View Game Card)
Kade Morris (ATH) @ HOU (L) – 4.0 IP, 9 ER, 9 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 90 pitches.
We got some fresh meat, and I don’t think it was properly refrigerated during its transit from Las Vegas to Houston. Morris is a command-first, low arm slot righty who relied heavily on a 93-94 mph sinker. He paired it low in the zone with a slew of breakers to righties. It was mostly an 81-82 mph sweeper that performed well, but he also showcased an 87-88 mph gyro slider that was difficult for him to command. Lefties saw a wider mix of offerings, as an 88-89 mph changeup and a 76 mph curveball showed up without promising results. A decent, yet unruly, 94 mph four-seamer wrapped up the arsenal, doing its best to support the sinker. Not only do the results speak for themselves, but the arsenal doesn’t speak to future success, especially when this was his first impression outside of Sacré Verde. (View Game Card)
Game of the Day
Cade Cavalli vs. Michael Soroka – Welcome to curveball city!
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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