Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Wednesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Mitch Keller (PIT) vs STL (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 97 pitches.
It was a fantastic outing from Mitch Keller on Wednesday, boasting 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 97 pitches (W) against the Cardinals. It’s the latest in a strong run from Keller of ten starts, recording a 3.08 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 20% strikeout rate across 61.1 IP. That’s over six frames per start (just two under at 5.1 and 5.2 IP) and only a trio of games above 2 ER at three runs twice and a clunker of six runs against Houston.
I get it. Those in quality start leagues can’t let go of this kind of production, but for the standard 5×5 leagues that these roundups favor, Keller carries just two Wins along this stretch, both coming from across the last week. However, if the ratios are stable, then it’s a reasonable tradeoff, right?
Here’s the situation. Keller is performing better than usual against RHB, while he’s continuing to get obliterated by LHB. His four-seamer and sinker both allow an astounding amount of hard contact to LHB, while the sweeper and slider that perform well against RHB are not stable offerings against their counterpart. The curve and change are introduced more and help, though they are not foundational pitches and don’t do enough.
I am impressed that his four-seamer and sinker have performed well against RHB this season. I actually think he could do better if Keller favored his sweeper and slider more often instead of saving the former for two-strike counts, while the slider as an overall pitch has had poor luck despite weak contact and a solid CSW.
Keller is an arm who will throw strikes and give himself a chance to go 6+, hoping to avoid damage against LHB and taking advantage against RHB. When one of those fails (Houston = all RHB and he located horribly), the whole approach falters. Not to mention, his four-seamer and sinker are deadzone movement at 94 mph. How long can they continue to succeed over the plate without precision?
The Royals are in his cross-hairs, with a likely start against the White Sox after the ASB. I can see many taking the shot in both given his current run, but I want to preach caution. His ceiling is not high enough in my view to endure the mediocre outings mixed with a decent chance of a destructive outing.
Let’s see how every other SP did Wednesday:
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) vs BAL (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 72 pitches.
Whoa, they let him go 72 pitches?! This was the ceiling of Eovaldi in his second “rehab” start, following an outing of sub 50 pitches. He had to be efficient and his cutter led the way with a whopping 57% CSW across 32% usage. It’s so nice to have you back, Eovaldi.
Noah Cameron (KCR) @ SEA (ND) – 4.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 80 pitches.
Slider and changeup absolutely killed it, though he was removed a little early after loading the bases with two outs in the fifth. So close. I would have loved to have seen Cameron get the chance to escape the frame, but he had thrown a high number of pitches in the inning and I get it. Don’t let the short outing affect your thoughts on Cameron.
Tyler Holton (DET) @ WSN (ND) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 50% CSW, 28 pitches.
This was a bullpen game with SGL hitting the IL and a doubleheader after Tuesday’s postponements. We move on.
Brennan Bernardino (BOS) vs CIN (ND) – 1.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 29 pitches.
The Sawx elected to have Bello continue the suspended game earlier in the day and roll with a bullpen game for Game 2. It worked for a bit, until it didn’t. Wow, such insight. Relievers, am I right?
Huascar Brazobán (NYM) vs MIL (ND) – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 19 pitches.
Brazobán opened for Blade Tidwell, who cruised until allowing a pair of solo shots + an infield single that scored with him relieved from the game. The end result: 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 80 pitches (W). Yeaaaah, that’s not the exciting outing I was hoping for with just 1/28 whiffs on breakers and the four-seamer forced to do everything. It’s a near league-average four-seamer that wasn’t spotted well, and the sinker that he pairs with it does little to excite. You should chase something else.
Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) vs SDP (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 85 pitches.
Standard affair for Sánchez against RHB, while he returned just 1/37 whiffs to LHB, but generated eight outs in play without hard contact. Gotta love the low NC Rate across the board here, it’s a catalyst for efficient days like these.
Nick Pivetta (SDP) @ PHI (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 90 pitches.
I love this. Pivetta refused to give in against RHB with nearly everything along the edges, while LHB saw high heaters + a ton of curveballs for strikes. Sure, one of those hooks eventually got sent over the wall, but I’ll take that over poor counts that rack up the pitch count and create more overall damage. I appreciate Pivetta making it a solo shot instead of something worse, too. Thanks bud. Oh, and the cutter to RHB? Yeah, not really happening. Just two here, but a whiff and out! There’s promise…?
Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) @ MIA (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 75 pitches.
Ayyyy it worked! The slider was highly questionable and his curve/splitter weren’t exceptional but the four-seamer pounded the zone and the Marlins + Koufax did the rest. It’s a clear avoid for the Cubs, but I can see a world streaming SWR on a desperate Sunday against the Pirates before the break. Y’all know I don’t love it, though. Early hook, lack of whiffs, and a possible Grave Mistake.
Logan Gilbert (SEA) vs KCR (ND) – 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 95 pitches.
Gilbert, I want to give you AGA, but you’re making it hard. I’m still blown away that he can’t find whiffs on his four-seamer (2/26 here) and I’m also shocked to see just 29% strikes on his splitter despite few of them being massive misses. It may be as a simple as LHB refusing to swing at anything in the lower third of the zone with just one four-seamer landing under the belt. One day Gilbert will have too many four-seamers missing above the zone and the BSB will be unlocked. One day.
Brandon Eisert (CHW) @ LAD (ND) – 1.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 0 Ks – 0 Whiffs, 17% CSW, 18 pitches.
Eisert opened for Sean Burke, who gave us a phenomenal outing against the Dodgers: 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BB, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 88 Pitches (ND). He had a Win if not for ninth inning heroics and I’m thrilled to report that the curveball—wait. I’m not pleased at all. Oh no. The hook went 2/25 whiffs for just 44% strikes. HOWEVER, they were competitive curves to LHB and located down frequently, allowing the 95 mph heater with seven feet of extension and 17-18″ of vert perform well upstairs. The change and slider were also helpful and efficient, though I wouldn’t call them well spotted as they floated a bit. It’s encouraging, but is it encouraging enough for the Jays? I’m not sure. The Guardians after maybe.
Hunter Brown (HOU) @ COL (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 102 pitches.
Aces gonna ace with a Gallows Pole. Hunter threw so many non-competitive pitches well out of the zone, especially the cutter that held just a 35% strike rate. But fortunately for him, the four-seamer was at 97/98 mph and was everything he needed it to be. Phew.
Janson Junk (MIA) vs MIN (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 83 pitches.
Hot dang, look at you! That’s a Gold Star against the strong Twins offense and he did it with his breakers stepping up for a ton of strikes. RHB saw great sliders and sweepers away, while LHB got a large dose of low curveballs, while the four-seamer comfortably landed over the plate and was elevated for strikeouts at a 41% CSW. This is the best I’ve seen Janson and I’m not sold we’ll see it again. We saw the floor last time out, y’all, and his breakers are rarely this well located.
Freddy Peralta (MIL) @ NYM (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 100 pitches.
Peralta looked very much like Professor Chaos, but the Mets were unable to take advantage of the strikes he did throw, and even gave in more than usual to his changeup and slider, pairing for 10/42 whiffs on the game. He survived another one, let’s thank the stuff for making his effectively wild approach productive for our fantasy teams.
Ryan Pepiot (TBR) vs ATH (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 9 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 100 pitches.
Wow. I don’t think I’ve seen a game like this one where Pepiot could not find his four-seamer. It was a horrific 41% strike rate with a stupid high 19% NC Rate (normally under 10%!), and let’s collectively thank the cutter, changeup, and slider for stepping up. Yes, a cutter and slider, with the latter sitting two ticks under the former and about 4-5 inches extra two-plane break. We even saw nine sinkers from the fella in an effort to find more strikes and I appreciate Pepiot dipping into the well to get to the finish line. It was a weird one.
Yusei Kikuchi (LAA) @ ATL (ND) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 100 pitches.
Ayyyy, we keep it rolling with Kikuchi. Sliders and four-seamers are splitting well against RHB and even the 20 changeups + curves earned incessant strikes with just one hit allowed. We’ll take it and keep riding Kikuchi until he hits the inevitable wall.
MacKenzie Gore (WSN) vs DET (ND) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 111 pitches.
Gore went BSB hard with four-seamers middle and up + curveballs and changeups underneath to RHB + four sliders and a fastball to LHB in total. The Tigers were ready for the heater, though, fouling off 20/62 (32%!) and forcing Gore to execute with his secondaries more than he would like. If his changeup were better than a 23% strike rate (yuuuuck) or the cutter could find the zone, you’d be seeing a different line. In the end, it’s these little things that prevent Gore from joining his peers with an AGA tag. He doesn’t have the backup plan others do.
Clay Holmes (NYM) vs MIL (ND) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 1 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 90 pitches.
Jeeeeez, another high walk game? The Adobe has placed a welcome mat outside to grant all free passes to those who step up to home plate. This was a day of sinkers down the pipe a whole lot with some easy takes around the edges mixed in. Koufax put in some work to keep runs off the board and even with a HAISTBMBWT?!, let’s be happy he’s surviving. I know, it’s really stressful with this rising walk rate. I envisioned Clay to be more like this than he was in April and May, though it’s unlikely he continues in this way without making an adjustment.
Austin Gomber (COL) vs HOU (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 78 pitches.
That’s a Dusty Donut from Gomber with a HAISTBMBWT?! and honestly, that’s great in Coors against the Astros. Props. No, nothing fun to report otherwise. Cool curve, though.
Landen Roupp (SFG) @ ARI (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 81 pitches.
Roupp changed things a bit here, going BSB to LHB with high sinkers + changeups down and curveballs…very much over the plate. Fortunately just one hit allowed there but the high sinker didn’t get the calls or whiffs it deserved. Here’s the deal: Roupp had a 61% zone rate and 46% strike rate on his sinker to LHB. Think about that for a moment. HE GOT SQUEEZED! He sure did. Not cool when facing a team like Arizona, you know? He was able to make it work through four frames then struggled in the fifth as the dam collapsed. I still love this kid.
Didier Fuentes (ATL) vs LAA (ND) – 3.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 92 pitches.
So this is actually really encouraging. Fuentes’ four-seamer was decently up and yes, needs more command to do better than a 54% strike rate and 15% NC Rate. Duh. That will come though and I’m pleased to tell you he was able to return 62% strikes with a 41% CSW sweeper, too. 7/34 whiffs on the pitch and there’s legit promise. That’s a two-pitch mix that can work and you are destined to see games where Fuentes looks absurd based on demolishing RHB with that combo. I’m curious how the curve and splitter develop against LHB, though. I have my doubts that they will be the support he needs there.
Merrill Kelly (ARI) vs SFG (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 92 pitches.
Blegh. You got a PQS and settled in a bit after allowing two runs in the first. So it goes, we still love Kelly. Too bad he couldn’t take advantage of the Giants, though.
Shota Imanaga (CHC) vs CLE (W) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 81 pitches.
Three solo shots off the four-seamer, which has always been the fear with Imanaga. And yet, the WHIP is studly, you got a Win, and a Dusty Donut ain’t so bad. No AGA for you, though.
Jack Flaherty (DET) @ WSN (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 97 pitches.
A King Cole from Flaherty with nine strikeouts is yet another Dusty Donut with questionable ratios. This really does feel like April of last year, doesn’t it? Cool to see the slider step up after the curve had taken over for the past few weeks. 82% strikes with a 55% CSW and 23% usage is lovely, especially when his curve feel wasn’t nearly as good as we’ve seen. Buy low, y’all. Just trust the K-BB%, it can be that simple at times.
Nick Martinez (CIN) @ BOS (W) – 6.2 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 89 pitches.
He was Singled Out (and a two-run shot in the sixth) with a touch of Careful, Icarus after losing the PQS in the seventh and allowing just one run through five. It was a weird one with his attack to RHB of high sinkers and changeups, while I dug the BSB of four-seamers + cutters up merged with low changeups and curves to LHB. I think you’re safe to roll with him for the two-step next week of Marlins + Rockie Road.
Sonny Gray (STL) @ PIT (L) – 6.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 78 pitches.
After pitching the game of his life, the command wasn’t the same. And yet, he was one ER through six with a super low pitch count until the words Careful, Icarus were whispered into his ear. Whatareyagonnado. No warning signs here, in fact, 92/93 mph on the sinker is a cool thing and his efficiency has been stellar.
Clayton Kershaw (LAD) vs CHW (ND) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 100 pitches.
He got his 3,000th strikeout rooted in sliders and curveballs, but he still throws sub 90 mph. I’m iffy if I want to keep going with Kersh against the Brewers, especially if he may feel like he’s accomplished what he wanted to do this season. Just a thought.
Dylan Cease (SDP) @ PHI (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 103 pitches.
Oh Cease. A near 20% NC Rate against LHB with your heater is ghastly and a poor 14% to RHB did little to help, too. However, this was really just two pitches for a pair of longballs that allowed 3 ER. Really, that’s about it. Sure, he could have put himself in a better position, but this is still 20% SwStr sliders galore and those fastballs are generally not so wild. I’m buying low here.
Mitch Spence (ATH) @ TBR (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 77 pitches.
Spence was allowed to start the sixth and it burned him for two longballs and three runs in a Careful, Icarus. Womp womp. They came off a hanging cutter and slider in the heart of the plate and it’s a bit frustrating…wait a second. That was an 86 mph cutter. Spencer is supposed to average 91+ mph on his cutter. He sat 88.5 mph on the cutter. Noooooooo. And just when I was starting to like the sinker inside to RHB and the curve to LHB. Let’s not take the chance against Atlanta and see how it plays out after.
Tanner Bibee (CLE) @ CHC (L) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 96 pitches.
Uhhhh, this ain’t it. The sweeper, curve, and cutter all went 44% strikes and the only positive element of this one was LHB dealing with a strong four-seamer + changeup combo up-and-away. RHB were served 43% sinkers for just 52% strikes and it’s hard to feel good with Bibee after the gains he just made, even if this was the Cubs. He’ll get the Astros and White Sox in a two-step next week and I guess we hold our nose and hope for the best.
Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) @ NYM (L) – 3.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 72 pitches.
Oh, there’s the blow up. Yes, his four-seamer control took the dip we thought we’d see initially but haven’t for his first three starts. That is, the pitch was thrown 60% of the time for a 56% strike rate (you never want usage rate above strike rate…), but here’s the thing. This was a product of a disaster third frame with two quick outs followed by two walks, an infield single that bounced off Jay Mis’ glove and nearly got the third out, then a high 96 mph heater that Nimmo took over the right-field fence for a grand slam. Then at 0-2 on Lindor in the next at-bat, he threw a great high heater that Lindor took yard. But yes, this wasn’t the overwhelming stupidity of the previous games, rooted in his heater returning a 16% NC Rate as opposed to the lower marks of his first three games. It was bound to happen and it least it wasn’t walk city. Expect a rebound, of course.
Mick Abel (PHI) vs SDP (L) – 1.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 Hits, 5 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 53 pitches.
Oh jeez. Abel’s best skill has been fastball command and he really didn’t have it in this one. The slider and curve tried to help but it wasn’t enough. It’s clearly time to let Abel reset off our fantasy teams and I’m excited. Say what. I love prospect pitchers the most when they have some success, fail, and recover. He’s in phase two now and once Abel recovers, it’ll be easier to trust. Good luck.
Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL) @ TEX (L) – 4.2 IP, 6 ER, 10 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 79 pitches.
Two longballs + getting Singled Out messed him up. I don’t think he pitched as poorly as the line suggests, but if he’s this susceptible to the Rangers even on a night where he’s pitching decently well, that’s a major sign to avoid him moving forward.
José Berríos (TOR) vs NYY (ND) – 4.1 IP, 6 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 83 pitches.
It’s The Great Undulator, who couldn’t hold off the Yankees. Not a major shock, of course. At least it’s the White Sox next as you continue to close your eyes if you’ve made the deal to roster him.
Trevor Williams (WSN) vs DET (L) – 3.0 IP, 7 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 86 pitches.
Remember kids, #NeverTrevor. I recorded a fun The Craft podcast with Eno Sarris yesterday, discussing NC Rate and how T. Ells held the lowest among starters in the league. Not too shocking as it suggests good command and he clearly has to have that if he’s in the majors with his sub 90 mph velocity.
Will Warren (NYY) @ TOR (ND) – 4.0 IP, 8 ER, 10 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 99 pitches.
Warren got bamboozled by the Jays with a 3-run shot and 2-run shot in the first inning alone. But even still, it wasn’t his game. Four-seamers and sinkers alike didn’t come with the same precision we’ve seen, while the secondaries weren’t ready to step up. It’s really frustrating to watch this from Warren, who has all the skills to be a stud the rest of the way, and keep in mind that he was on a gorgeous four game stretch prior to this. Sure, it’s his second major clunker, but he’s not destined to live down here. It’s an outlier and I’m starting him against the Mariners in the Bronx.
Game of the Day
Joey Cantillo vs. Cade Horton – Cantillo is getting a chance to start again + I want to see Horton take the next step with his command.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
