Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Saturday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Quinn Mathews (STL) @ TOR (L) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 97 pitches.
In the dog days of summer, clubs tend to promote top prospect talent. The reasons can range from getting them a taste of the Majors before their first full season, to a reason to get fans excited about the future, or a lightning bolt to help the team make a surge in the standings.
The Cardinals find themselves at 54-57 with 5.9% odds to make the playoffs according to Fangraphs, so they decided to give one of their promising young starters his first big league action to get him acclimated to the sport’s highest level. Quinn Mathews, the club’s #7 prospect according to MLB Pipeline, made his MLB debut in Toronto on Saturday, with 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 97 pitches (L), and he’s a lot more exciting than the line suggests.
The 25-year-old, 6’5″ southpaw features a dope four-seamer as his primary pitch. It sat 94-95 mph with plenty of rise (17″+ iVB) at a flat attack angle (1.6 HAVAA) with above-average extension (6.6 feet). Those are awesome characteristics, especially with a decently low arm angle (possibly sub-30°!), and he displayed the intent with it upstairs that you want to see with a heater of that shape. It led to five whiffs, 38% CSW, and 65% strikes on the four-seamer, setting a stable base off of which his secondaries could build.
Mathews supports the fastball with a slew of secondaries – a slider, changeup, and curveball. The 86 mph slider grades out as his best pitch, and with his ability to keep it on the edges of the zone while avoiding the heart, it returned 74% strikes while living in the zone 61% of the time and inducing a trio of whiffs. It should be a supportive strike pitch against RHB and an effective putaway/whiff offering vs LHB.
The other breaker is a slow 76-77 mph curveball with tons of vertical break. I’d love this to be a get-me-over, surprise called strike pitch, but he may have a tough time commanding it with it breaking so much. It grades out well, and he did a great job keeping it low, so it could be a supportive tertiary offering when he’s missing his slider command.
His slowball will be the real difference maker. If he can command it low and armside consistently like he did here, he has the makings of a SWATCH, with plenty more upside thanks to the pretty impressive fastball-slider combo. At 83-84 mph, there’s a massive velocity differential between it and his heater, and it can live out of the zone to hunt chases for whiffs if the rest of the arsenal can keep the strikes flowing.
It all has the makings of a pitcher who should dominate at the big league level as long as he commands his pitches well, and that’s where the concerns arise. Mathews has consistently struggled with free passes in the minor leagues. At Triple-A across the past three seasons, he’s recorded 17.7%, 17.5%, and 14% walk rates. Prospect reports suggest that he’s battled his mechanics in the past and that he worked extensively on adding strength to combat the inconsistency of his pitching motion. He seemed to have quelled the concerns about his control issues with a single-digit walk rate across his final nine starts in the minors this year.
If Mathews can avoid resurfacing the issues that led to inconsistent mechanics and continue to throw plenty of strikes with an effective BSB approach driven by a dope fastball and a trio of effective secondaries, he’s going to thrive in the big leagues. With Rockie Road up next, I’m all in for giving him a shot, seeing how he performs, and going from there. There’s plenty in Mathews’ favor to become a legitimate SWATCH with breakout potential for 2027. (View Game Card)
Let’s see how every other SP did Saturday:
Martín Pérez (ATL) vs WSN (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hit, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 78 pitches.
The Vargas Rule appeared to come to an end entering the All-Star Break, and that assertion was supported by a pair of unspectacular post-break outings. Pérez appeared to get back on track, dominating the lefty-killing Nationals with impeccable sinker and changeup command downstairs. I say appeared because the indicators we look at to determine sustainability all suggest he just had Koufax on his side. We can’t expect him to repeat this success @NYY next after stealing 12 called strikes with sinkers, earning just 54% strikes on changeups, and returning 16 outs on 17 balls in play. (View Game Card)
Drew Rasmussen (TBR) vs CHW (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BB, 10 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 96 pitches.
Aces gonna ace for a Golden Goal. A season-high 19.6″ of vert allowed four-seamers to absolutely dominate upstairs to the tune of 10 whiffs, 76% strikes, and seven punchouts. You love to see it! (View Game Card)
Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) @ BAL (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 5 BBs, 11 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 99 pitches.
Sánchez made a case to regain his AGA tag with impressive, yet unsustainable success. He issued a season-high five walks as offspeed pitches combined for just 45% strikes, returned seven outs on nine balls in play, and racked up 11 strikeouts via an 85% putaway rate. We’ll see how good he is at culling luck against the lefty-killing Nationals next (will they still be as effective in that regard without Curtis Mead?). (View Game Card)
Brent Suter (LAA) vs MIL (ND) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 K – 5 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 41 pitches.
Brett Kerry followed with 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 whiffs, 31% CSW, 55 pitches (ND) in his second big league appearance. With Ryan Johnson optioned to the minors and the Angels looking to deal from their rotation at the deadline, Kerry should stick on the pitching staff for the foreseeable future. Whether the Angels are willing to stretch him out to a starter’s workload will determine his fantasy viability. However, with an ERA north of 7.50 in each of his last two seasons in the minors, it’s likely to be only in the deepest of AL-only leagues. (View Game Card)
David Peterson (CHC) vs NYY (ND) – 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 97 pitches.
Now you’ve got our attention! It wasn’t the excellent pitch separation that got us excited in his last start, but he did tie his season-high with eight strikeouts against the mighty Bronx Bombers. He generally kept sinkers low and armside with four-seamers sitting upstairs. Sliders dominated LHB for four whiffs and three strikeouts, while changeups came alive for 39% CSW with increased usage to make him a potential SWATCH. With command improvements, a better defense behind him, and now a new strikeout ceiling to chase, Peterson may be worth your attention vs TOR up next. (View Game Card)
Shane Baz (BAL) vs PHI (L) – 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BB, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 99 pitches.
Baz altered his approach to RHB, leaning on sinkers in the zone 23% more often, leading to 80% weak contact and ground balls off the pitch. It took the pressure off cutters and four-seamers to nibble the edges, but I’m not sure it’s enough to change his outlook. It was the same four-seamer, curveball, and changeup approach to LHB. His hook was deployed like a lazy fisherman, and its extra tick of velo removed 2″+ of depth. Send him out there @TEX next, but don’t expect him to keep up the 2.62 ERA he’s recorded across his last six starts. The 1.34 WHIP and 21% strikeout rate are easy indicators to suggest he’s been lucky at stranding baserunners and too reliant on batted balls. (View Game Card)
Kevin Gausman (TOR) vs STL (W) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BB, 4 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 94 pitches.
At this point, we’re happy when Gausman throws strikes and avoids the longball. He hasn’t served up a dinger in each of his last five starts, but that doesn’t mean he’s not prone to being Singled Out. He survived five shutout frames with seven singles against him before a pair of doubles in the sixth knocked in his first run and sent him to the benches. Careful, Icarus. Splitters cooked with eight whiffs and four-seamers thrived in the zone for 83% strikes. Run it back, ya’ll! (View Game Card)
Max Fried (NYY) @ CHC (ND) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BB, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 78 pitches.
Closing in on 80 pitches with this electric start in the Windy City means we’re one more successful outing away from Fried’s Coronation Day. (View Game Card)
Noah Schultz (CHW) @ TBR (L) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 67 pitches.
The fix for every struggling pitcher is an opener! Jordan Hicks started this one, allowing Schultz to get a running start in the second frame. He leaned heavily on center-cut sinkers, stealing eight called strikes and returning 100% outs on six balls in play. I liked his ability to jam RHB with cutters, but sweepers and changeups have yet to emerge as the whiff offerings they need to be to allow Schultz to achieve his potential. Looping Charlie Brown football gif. (View Game Card)
Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) @ CIN (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BB, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 69 pitches.
We’re not out of the woods yet! Ashcraft is still only able to command one of his secondaries at a time, as curveballs returned just 41% strikes. The issues against LHB persist, as he threw 73% of his offerings against them in the zone, but lived to tell the tale thanks to seven outs on eight balls in play via 75% grounders and 63% weak contact. The only damage came on a Jose Trevino flick of the wrist on a well-located four-seamer upstairs. Didn’t he take The Miz deep earlier this year? Yeah, and his other two homers came on one day in Coors. What an interesting fella! Ashcraft otherwise avoided the heart of the plate vs RHB with impressive command around the edges of the zone. I can’t say he’s all the way back until he’s pulling off an effective approach against LHB with command of both breakers. (View Game Card)
Robert Gasser (MIL) @ LAA (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 76 pitches.
I wish Gasser threw gas and not 92-93 mph so I could make some easy jokes about his fastball. I wish he commanded better and showcased a heavier reliance on changeups. Don’t we all? We’ll take these results, but we can’t expect him to get away with his center-cut locations, lack of approach, and underwhelming stuff for much longer. Blame it on the Angels. He may be removed from the rotation as soon as tomorrow if the Brewers can land an arm at the deadline. (View Game Card)
Parker Messick (CLE) vs ARI (ND) – 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BB, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 91 pitches.
It’s not the ~95 mph velo he’s displayed in five of his last eight starts, but we’ll take 94-95 when he’s able to pull off the BSB with four-seamers and changeups. If he commanded so well, why didn’t he survive five frames? You can blame his inefficiency on deep counts (70% two-strike rate), and you can blame the early hook on a rough fifth that opened with a strikeout but ended with three straight singles and an error. We’ll take the ERA and strikeouts, but a win would’ve been nice. (View Game Card)
Framber Valdez (DET) @ ATH (W) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 96 pitches.
With the Tigers angering the baseball world by dealing Tarik Skubal to the Dodgers, Valdez gave Tigers fans hope that they’ve still got an elite southpaw in town. He finally read our analysis that everything rides on his curveball, so he threw it a season-high 42% of the time to ensure it got the job done. Live and die by the hook! The rest of his arsenal arrived to prop up the strike rate and join in the butter ground ball churning party. He’s always prone to BABIP fluctuations, but this Dusty Donut was pretty ridiculous, as he allowed eight singles on 73% ground balls. Not even Javier Báez at shortstop could gobble up all those butters grounders. (View Game Card)
Payton Tolle (BOS) @ LAD (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 88 pitches.
Tolle had the baseball world rooting for him as he took on the trade tyrants and manhandled them with four-seamers and cutters (it’s a slider). They combined for 13 whiffs and 75% strikes, allowing him to withstand a ridiculous .500 BABIP. After surviving the Sacré Verde and Hollywood gauntlet, Tolle gets some respite with ATH, @TOR, ARI on the horizon. (View Game Card)
Tyler Phillips (MIA) @ NYM (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 65 pitches.
Other than a singular curveball whiff, splitters were the only pitch to miss any bats. Phillips recognized their whiffability and leaned on them as his primary pitch. Don’t let his success as a reliever trick you into believing his season-long ratios are to be trusted. It’s a 4.70 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and 15% strikeout rate in 13 outings since he joined the rotation. His sinker and sweeper are dope, but the four-seamers, splitter, and curveball aren’t consistently commanded well enough to take down LHB. (View Game Card)
Kohl Drake (ARI) @ CLE (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BB, 6 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 94 pitches.
Unable to mask his low-90s, two-plane four-seamer, the pitch served up four hits and a two-run, first-inning homer that accounted for all the damage against him. Unable to throw his secondaries for more than 51% strikes, Drake failed to be efficient enough to survive five frames. There’s SWATCH potential here, but he’s going to have to display better command before we can give him that label. (View Game Card)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) vs BOS (L) – 8.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BB, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 96 pitches.
Aces gonna induce single-digit whiffs for the fifth time in his last seven starts. Yamamoto’s become a pitch-to-contact starter, and while it’s limited his strikeouts (they’ve been down all year), it hasn’t stopped him from efficiently pitching deep into the games. Maybe the Dodgers really did need Tarik Skubal. (View Game Card)
Logan Gilbert (SEA) vs MIN (ND) – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BB, 6 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 96 pitches.
Aces gonna find an extra tick of velo to throw harder than he has all year (97.2 mph), but still serve up a pair of dingers to diminish what was an excellent start. (View Game Card)
Connor Prielipp (MIN) @ SEA (ND) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 88 pitches.
Nick focused on Prielipp’s odd usage of sinkers to RHB last time, but had faith in his secondaries returning to form here, while I held skepticism that his blister affected his ability to find the feel for his secondaries. Looks like I was wrong! Sliders showed up for five whiffs and 62% strikes, and changeups surprised with 3/4 whiffs. After walking three in the first, he settled in with just one across the next five frames. A ridiculous 45% foul ball rate on four-seamers, leading to 13 foul balls and zero whiffs on the heater, made it difficult for him to put batters away or end at-bats quickly. I’m more confident in Preilipp than I’ve been for weeks. (View Game Card)
Andrew Abbott (CIN) vs PIT (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 5 BBs, 1 K – 8 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 98 pitches.
Abbott’s command has left the building. That’s nine walks across his last two starts, and he looked worse than ever here, bouncing countless changeups, curveballs, and sweepers. Without the ability to pull off the BSB effectively, Abbott left our bread in the toaster for too long and forgot to go to the grocery store to restock the fridge with our favorite companion for gluten. HAISTBMBWT?! Let’s give him a break against the lefty-killing Nationals up next. (View Game Card)
Zac Thornton (NYM) vs MIA (L) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 94 pitches.
We didn’t have much faith in Thornton keeping up the success with his low-velo, contact-reliant four-seamer+cutter approach. It came to an end as he struggled to throw strikes while expanding his arsenal to support his one-two punch. He’s induced double-digit whiffs just once in six starts this year, and I’m not sold his command is elite enough to pull off the Foster Griffin approach of a cutter-led kitchen sink arsenal. (View Game Card)
Ronel Blanco (HOU) vs TEX (ND) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 82 pitches.
I’m somewhat enamored with Blanco’s stuff, as he showed up with a PSA 10 heater, supported by near-mint secondaries. I love that he looks to sneak fastballs above the zone for whiffs and that he’s displayed a feel for strikes on all of his offspeed pitches (72% strikes combined). Unfortunately, he’s still looking to uncover his post-surgery command, and it may be a while until it comes together. It’s always the last piece of the puzzle to return after TJS. I’ll likely be looking to draft Blanco in 2027. (View Game Card)
Walker Buehler (SDP) vs SFG (ND) – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 K – 4 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 79 pitches.
Cough…COUGH! Oh my gosh, Buehler! Are you trying to kill me?! Why is this bread so dry?! Oh…you threw sinkers a third of the time, looking to churn outs on balls in play. How did that go for you? Get your bread butter up! (View Game Card)
Ryan Feltner (COL) vs KCR (W) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BB, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 87 pitches.
Coors is undefeated. (View Game Card)
Miles Mikolas (WSN) @ ATL (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BB, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 94 pitches.
He’s Miles away from being fantasy relevant. (View Game Card)
Tyler Mahle (SFG) @ SDP (ND) – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 99 pitches.
Mahle’s doing everything he can to make himself an enticing trade chip ahead of Monday’s deadline. He bumped his fastball velo to a season-high 94.2 mph across six shutout frames last time, and while he allowed five runs on Saturday, he held his second-highest velo of the year (93.8 mph), induced a season-high nine strikeouts, and nearly survived six frames before a two-out single, a hook, and an inherited runner scoring. Careful, Icarus. My prediction is the Brewers, and I’m honestly surprised he hasn’t pitched for them before. (View Game Card)
Jacob deGrom (TEX) @ HOU (L) – 3.1 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 5 BBs, 3 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 91 pitches.
Aces gonna live out of the zone too often with sliders, produce a ridiculous 30% foul ball rate on four-seamers/sinkers/curveballs, and get Singled Out via a .500 BABIP. It was a very uncharacteristic start, but it marks his second outing in his last three with five runs allowed. Maybe the glute injury is bothering him more than he’s letting on. This start seems more like poor luck, and with BAL and @LAA upcoming, I wouldn’t be afraid to send him out there. (View Game Card)
Jack Perkins (ATH) vs DET (L) – 5.1 IP, 6 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BB, 9 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 91 pitches.
Perkins did his best to salvage a start in Sacré Verde by racking up a career-high nine punchouts, but a trio of long balls made this hard to swallow. I still like the K potential in deeper leagues, but I only want to start him when he’s on the road. Let’s hope that preference is warranted @BOS next. (View Game Card)
Luinder Avila (KCR) @ COL (L) – 2.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 60 pitches.
Pitching in Coors for the first time, Avila couldn’t nail down his command, as he was unable to adjust to the different movement of his offerings in the thin Denver air. This is why we avoid streaming pitchers in Coors at all costs. Avila isn’t someone we trust in regular circumstances anyway. (View Game Card)
Game of the Day
Jacob Misiorowski vs. Walbert Ureña – It’s The Miz, and Ureña has been throwing triple digits recently, too.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
