Spring Training has arrived and as I’ve been writing daily notes for myself to recap all spring training starting pitchers for the Plus Pitch Podcast, I realized I should publish them on the site for quick access.
I’ll be livestreaming every morning 10am-12pm ET at playback.tv/pitcherlist as I watch all of the starts with y’all and answer all your fantasy baseball questions.
Major SP News To Know
Luis Gil will get an MRI for right shoulder discomfort. The expectation is an IL stint, with Marcus Stroman suddenly becoming the #5 for the Yankees. Will Warren is the clear #6 SP.
Caleb Kilian and Cody Poteet have been sent to Triple-A. It’s a bummer we won’t see more Kilian and it’s up to Wicks or Brown to demand the #5 spot now.
Site News
We added a few things for PL Pro subscribers!
I made a spreadsheet of all the important fastball velocity trends I’ve seen thus far from SP and shared it inside our Discord. Here it is after Thursday’s games:
We also added this fantastic Movement & Location chart to all pitchers inside our Spring Training Live Data app:
Now it’s super easy to see velo changes, movement changes (extra vert from Rodón!), extension, usage changes, locations, etc. It’s incredible, y’all. Get access via PL Pro at 15% off with code SPRINGISHERE
Expected Rotations By Team
Statcast Games – TV
PHI vs. BOS
TOR vs. DET
NYM vs. WSH
MIA vs. ATL
NYY vs. TOR
LAD vs. LAA
SD vs. SEA
Jesús Luzardo (PHI) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, 2 K. Up 1-2 ticks on the heater and 2-3 on the rest is lovely, while he spotted sinkers inside to LHB, using it far more than in 2024. Oh, and his changeup went 4/5 whiffs to RHB. This is the way. Sign me up, y’all.
Michael Mercado (PHI) – 0.2 IP, 3 ER, 0 H, 3 BB, 2 K. Despite being up a tick to 96+ mph with a bit more vert, his command was a bit off, just around the edge of the zone. Don’t completely write him up from this one – that velocity plays and the control should be better.
Garrett Crochet (BOS) – 1.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 3 BB, 3 K. Strange to see Crochet under seven feet of extension suddenly (6.8 here vs. 7.1 last year) and his four-seamer feel was out of whack at just 44% strikes. Welcome to the spring.
Richard Fitts (BOS) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 3 K. Soooo you should know about Fitts. His four-seamer sat 97/98 mph and was over three ticks harder in yesterday’s game, but featured stellar slider and sweeper command down-and-away, using the two breakers nearly 65% of the time. Yeah. If this is real, he needs to be rostered. Everywhere.
Chris Bassitt (TOR) – 2.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 4 K. He’s down a little over a tick and that’s expected. In fact, maybe it’s a little surprising given he usually shows us 2-3 ticks down at this time.
Yariel Rodríguez (TOR) – 1.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 1 K. Nothing to get excited about here. I don’t think he has enough to be a serviceable 12-teamer arm if he finds his way into the rotation this year.
Reese Olson (DET) – 2.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 2 K. Oh hey, it’s 96 mph from Olson, sitting +1.8 ticks from last year. Front hip sinkers to LHB, too, though I wish he spotted said sinkers inside to RHB a bit more. I wish he had a better early schedule, but honestly, I may jump for him regardless, especially in 15-teamers.
Brandon Sproat (NYM) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, 1 K. 97 mph with stupid high control? Sure, that works. 1/19 total whiffs ain’t the best and I don’t like his fastball metric, but whatever, it’s 97 mph with strikes and a strong sweeper.
José Buttó (NYM) – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 1 BB, 1 K. Sure, you’re a tick up, but with just one inning to your name, I don’t expect a rotation spot on the horizon.
Shinnosuke Ogasawara (WSH) – 1.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 2 K. Ehhhhh, there’s nothing to latch onto here as you hope he turns into a Toby. I think we pass here until he shows us something legit.
Mitchell Parker (WSH) – 2.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 2 K. I was hoping Parker would embrace his slider a bit more this season and sadly, we’re not seeing that so far. However, he’s suddenly getting over 19″ of vert on his four-seamer and it led to 4/23 whiffs on the 92 mph pitch. So that’s kinda cool. Not incredible for a small sample, but cool.
Sandy Alcantara (MIA) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 3 K. He sat 99 mph and hit 100 mph multiple times. Control was a bit wonky at times, but yeah, he’s back y’all. UNRESTRICTED INNINGS. I’m tempted to push him near SP #20 or so. Tempted, not doing it yet.
Robby Snelling (MIA) – 0.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 4 BB, 1 K. He was missing armside endlessly against RHB and couldn’t make the adjustment. He’s still up in velocity, but 94.2, not 95.7, and I’ll wait for another game to assess the southpaw properly.
Ian Anderson (ATL) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 2 BB, 0 K. Control has always been a question and it’s still very much present. The velocity is generally back to 93/94 mph, though, so at least that is working out.
Grant Holmes (ATL) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 2 BB, 3 K. The Real Estate Broker is still missing bats and earning strikes at the same velocity. I’m so in, y’all.
Gerrit Cole (NYY) – 3.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 5 K. Down a tick (normal) and all is well here.
Jake Bloss (TOR) – 2.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 1 K. He’s up at 95 mph (+1.7) with nearly 19″ of vert at 1.7 HAVAA and nearly seven feet of extension. Uhhh, I hope that sticks, though he needs to get that heater upstairs instead of in the kitchen for LHB like Wells (HR), and also locate the slider a bit better to RHB. Legit sleeper potential here as he could be the SP #6 ahead of Yariel. He’s the better pitch in my book, especially if that velocity and shape holds over more than two frames.
Dustin May (LAD) – 1.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 H, 2 BB, 2 K. That’s two games for May now and obviously this one wasn’t as ideal. Still good under the hood marks on his arsenal and I wouldn’t focus on this one.
Nick Frasso (LAD) – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 2 BB, 1 K. He’s an oft discussed prospect on the Dodgers with 94 mph from the right side. Great extension at 17″ of vert, but the slider and changeup were lacking. I need more.
Jackson Ferris (LAD) – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 1 BB, 1 K. He has a slider and curve + a 95/96 mph sinker from the left side. Give me more outings to see if this is really worthwhile and if he can actually return reliable whiffs on the sinker.
Yusei Kikuchi (LAA) – 2.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 3 K. Less vert, mid extension, a tick down, but he’s throwing sweepers now. Interesting. I need more.
Chase Silseth (LAA) – 2.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 6 K. He was up 1-2 ticks at 95 mph and was cooking with his splitter for 5/15 whiffs. That’s fun, I wish I liked his fastball more.
Braden Nett (SD) – 2.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 3 K. You may see him get some starts for the Padres later this year. He’s not bad, but not exceptional at 94/95 and a decent mix of heaters + curve + cutter.
Bryan Woo (SEA) – 1.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, 0 K. He wasn’t as flat as we’ve seen before (1.4 HAVAA, not 1.8), but yeah, this looks like Woo. Still needs to find command of his secondaries, sadly.
Statcast Games – No TV
PIT vs. TB
MIN vs. BAL
CLE vs. COL
TEX vs. CHC
AZ vs. KC
Mitch Keller (PIT) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 1 K. We saw a small uptick in velocity and a large emphasis on his changeup to LHB. Nothing to shift our opinions here.
Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) – 1.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 2 K. He throws 96 mph without any other strong factors, but pairs it with a strike-heavy 90 mph slider. That could work if there’s another solid option, but the heater needs more than velocity.
Ryan Pepiot (TB) – 2.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 2 K. Vert is still there, velocity is still there. We’re cool.
Joe Boyle (TB) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 4 K. We saw a 79% strike rate on four-seamers as he sat 100.3 mph (+2.6 ticks). Uh. Maybe the Rays actually figured something out? I’m doubtful but this is obviously something to watch. Two innings and not one across 36 pitches also leans into the Rays trying to stretch him out into more than a reliever…
Zebby Matthews (MIN) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 5 K. Velocity is still up a tick, but not flirting with 97 mph this time around. Seeing the slider go 5/9 whiffs is all kinds of gorgeous, though he didn’t have stellar command despite the final line. Keep watching this.
Zach Eflin (BAL) – 2.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 1 K. It looked like Eflin at a tick down (expected as a vet). Carry on.
Albert Suárez (BAL) – 2.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 1 K. Nothing new here, save for being a little down in velocity.
Ben Lively (CLE) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 3 K. It’s the same Lively with a few more sinkers. Maybe we’re undervaluing this guy with above-average command and seven feet of extension with two fastballs over the plate? Maybe just a little?
Kolby Allard (CLE) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 1 K. Dralla, why are you here? Don’t just sneak up on people like that.
Kyle Freeland (COL) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 1 K. COL story,
Antonio Senzatela (COL) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 1 K. Bro.
Cody Bradford (TEX) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 3 K. Velocity was up from sub 90 mph to 91+ (it’s better at least!), with seven feet of extension and 17″ of vert. The changeup was fantastic to RHB and combined with the heater for 9/41 whiffs. This is a 15-teamer target, y’all.
Jack Leiter (TEX) – 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 4 K. The new sinker helped and he earned whiffs galore with plenty of strikes. He’s really close.
Justin Steele (CHC) – 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 2 K. He’s here. All is cool.
Merrill Kelly (AZ) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 2 K. Velocity is up at 93.9 (+1.6) and if that actually sticks, we may want more of Kelly on our teams. After all, that’s a great Arizona defense and he could produce solid 12-teamer ratios with volume. But yes, don’t draft Toby types. For the most part.
Ryne Nelson (AZ) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 2 BB, 1 K. He’s trying out the cutter at a lower velocity for more movement (down three ticks but to 88.1 mph) and I love that for him. He doesn’t have a big whiff secondary and going 2/10 whiffs on the cutter here could showcase a positive trend. Still no rotation spot, sadly.
Cristian Mena (AZ) – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, 0 K. He’s up to 96 mph, albeit over just a handful of pitches. Not bad shape, either, and I’d pay attention to Mena if he gets opportunities for the Sneks.
Kris Bubic (KC) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 4 K. I expected to see the velocity drop a bit as Bubic gets stretched out. Nope. We saw the same 93+ mph heater, which went 5/14 whiffs here. I’ve seen better command days from Bubic, but he’s clearly holding his SP #5 spot as of now. I’m down for Bubic in late rounds of 12-teamers.
No Statcast – TV
LAA vs. CWS
Reid Detmers (LAA) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 2 BB, 2 K. It was a horrible camera angle and I have nothing new to report here. Let’s move on.
Jonathan Cannon (CWS) – 2.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 1 K. That sure looks like Cannon, doesn’t it?
No Statcast – No TV
HOU vs. STL
ATH vs. CIN
SF vs. MIL
Hunter Brown (HOU) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 2 BB, 1 K. Welcome to the land of no information outside of the stat line. I was hoping for a line to blow me away and convince me otherwise about Brown. Welp, I’ll just have to wait for the next one.
Erick Fedde (STL) – 2.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 3 K. I wonder if the pitch mix changed. Probably not.
Tekoah Roby (STL) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 1 K. He’s a prospect who could be a Toby type in time.
Jeffrey Springs (ATH) – 2.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 1 K. Pretty poor line from Springs. Maybe it’ll be sunshine and rainbows after this.
Hunter Greene (CIN) – 2.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 2 K. Oh my. Check the velocity when we get data. Hope he’s okay.
Connor Phillips (CIN) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 2 K. No walks! That’s cool.
Logan Webb (SF) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 4 K. That’s a lovely line.
Kyle Harrison (SF) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 3 K. Is Harrison leaning into a cutter for more strikes?
Hayden Birdsong (SF) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 3 K. No walks! AGAIN! I want data so badly on Birdsong. No, there isn’t a vacant rotation spot, but if Birdsong has figured out the control problem, he could be a legit sleeper once getting regular starts.
Freddy Peralta (MIL) – 2.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 3 K. At least it’s not entirely Professor Chaos.
Deivi García (MIL) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 3 K. Hey, that’s cool. Once we get data, I wonder if Garcia is past 95 mph again. Highly doubt it.
What To Watch Today On TV
SPs to watch on TV today #SpringSPnotesGet morning updates to EVERY SP via my daily Plus Pitch Podcast AND SP Roundup article on the Pitcher List site.Cade Povich – Any chance for rotation spot?Tanner Houck – Splitter vs LHB good?Zac Gallen – Velo back up to 94?Kyle Hendricks – Okay.
— Nick Pollack (@nickpollack.pitcherlist.com) 2025-03-01T17:38:23.257Z