Spring Training has arrived and as I’ve been writing daily notes for myself to recap all spring training starting pitchers, I realized I should publish them on the site for quick access.
I’ll be livestreaming every morning 10am-12pm ET at playback.tv/pitcherlist as I watch all of the starts with y’all and answer all your fantasy baseball questions.
Major SP News To Know
Jameson Taillon was scratched from his Saturday start after feeling tightness in his lower back while warming up. I don’t expect this to be any sort of setback for opening day.
Expected Rotations By Team
Statcast Games – TV
NYM vs. STL.
TOR vs. PHI
BOS vs. TBR
Sean Manaea (NYM) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. He’s back to sitting 93/94 mph and was able to elevate his fastball, but it also meant elevating his changeup, sweeper, and cutter too. That doesn’t sound good. Because it isn’t. I don’t buy into Manaea’s command and it’s not a road I want to go down.
Steven Matz (STL) – 2.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. I was stunned to see Matz throw a 97.3 mph sinker here, but that fell all the way to 93.7 mph (hey, he reversed the numbers!) while he still doesn’t have a whiff pitch in his changeup or curve (or one slider, you know, the pitch he stopped throwing six years ago because it hurt his elbow) and the line tells you the rest.
Ricky Tiedemann (TOR) – 1.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. His heater and slider combo obviously works when executed (96 mph heater is dope, but it did fall to 93.8 mph once), though I’m a little concerned that he doesn’t have the command to make him a reliable 12-teamer arm. Give him a look yourself, just looking at his body on release and you’ll see how much violent movement there is at the very end with his arm going from the side of his hip, above his shoulder, and to release. It’s so quick and twitchy. Yeah, that’s not what you want – it hinders repeatability and consistency. The Shag Rug is very much present here, while I also didn’t see a third pitch to help him along the way, and throw in the fact that the Blue Jays are highly likely to hold him back at the start of the year (unless they really don’t like Bowden Francis for some reason), we can forget about him for now. Still worth the spec add when he arrives, but he’s not a surefire reliable arm in my view.
Taijuan Walker (PHI) – 2.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. He’s down three ticks on his sinker to just 89.2 mph. What. Yuuuup. Phillies, sign JorMont and move on from Taijuan. Seriously, this is the way.
Kutter Crawford (BOS) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. Oh hey, it’s a small velocity bump (0.5 mph) that is likely just noise, but a kutter at 1.6 ticks harder for nearly 70% strikes. His command was pretty blegh, though, with his slider and four-seamer swapping places (sliders were stupid high, four-seamers landed low) and I’m going to just write that off as spring weirdness.
Josh Winckowski (BOS) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks. We also saw Winckowski, who did a great job of locating sinkers armside and cutters gloveside, with the latter sitting over a tick up and earning all the outs and strikes. It’s fine and you may see Winck get some innings this year as I consider him as the current SP #7 behind Criswell for the Sawx.
Statcast Games – No TV
PIT vs. DET
NYY vs. MIN
CIN vs. ARI
MIL vs. OAK
Luis L. Ortiz (PIT) – 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. I have to hand it to Ortiz – that slider is filthy and he’s spotting it incredibly well. Unfortunately, that’s the only strong asset of his game, with his sinker dropping over a tick to just 94/95 mph and coming with poor command. He’s exactly the opposite of the guy I like to chase as he breaks the Huascar Rule
Matt Manning (DET) – 3.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. After sitting 93.4 mph last year, I’ve been stoked to see Manning at 95 mph this spring…and now it’s 94.1 mph. I truly believe Manning can be strong 12-teamer arm (think Holly) if he can sit 95 mph, but at 94, I’m not as interested. His slider is still up in velocity and looking good, but I need that velocity on the heater. Suitman whispers in my ear 8/32 whiffs on the four-seamer?! Well I’m glad he got the thing upstairs…hmmmm. Maybe this is good enough? Keep tabs on it.
Nestor Cortes (NYY) – 3.1 IP, 6 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. The Twins tagged four-seamers that weren’t upstairs and cutters that didn’t do everything he wanted, while his 92+ mph heater we’ve seen in spring fell down to 91 mph. That said, I’m still in as he’s healthy and this is what spring is for.
Bailey Ober (MIN) – 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. He allowed a weak hit to Volpe + a 2-run shot to Wells on a four-seamer that didn’t get high enough. So it goes. His changeup was stupid good at staying low here, the four-seamer was a little off, and the cutter/slider was a 50/50 split of great and blegh. The velocity is still up at 93 mph and we’re still very much in on Ober this year.
Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks. I wanted to note that the velocity is still holding at 93/94 mph and that’s the new norm for SWR moving forward – 5/7 whiffs on the heater is dope. He’ll be a long-reliever for now and is behind Varland as a starter, but I may be interested if he gets chances this year.
Andrew Abbott (CIN) – 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Still don’t love the command here as he pounded heaters very much in the zone to get through this. I’m avoiding him this year.
Connor Phillips (CIN) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks. 1/18 whiffs on the four-seamer, y’all, even at 97 mph. Despite all of your power, there is nothing that you can do. Well, he could be better at locating his stuff, but that’s gonna take a while.
Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. That’s much better from Erod, but I’m not seeing anything new that would make me consider him anything more than a Toby for the year ahead with a more susceptible WHIP at the benefit of a few more Ks than his contemporaries.
JP Sears (OAK) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. WE HAVE DATA! And guess what, Sears is up a tick across the board, save for his sweeper, which has gained both sweep and drop at the cost of just one tick down. Location wise, his four-seamer was fantastic as he had a ton of hiLoc, even if it may have been a little too out of the zone at times, but his sweeper and changeup? Yeaaaaah, those are not landing quite right yet. At least he kept the changeup armside and had some solid sweepers down-and-gloveside, but command has been the biggest issue for Sears and until I see a proper BSB approach, I might lay off this, given his limited Wins potential.
No Statcast – TV
WSH vs. HOU
BAL vs. ATL
LAA vs. CLE
OAK vs. SFG
TEX vs. LAD
Trevor Williams (WSH) – 3.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. #NeverTrevor.
José Urquidy (HOU) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. There are worse things in fantasy baseball than the steady #4 SP for the Astros. Don’t ignore it.
Dean Kremer (BAL) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. Fine fine fine, Kremer sticks in the rotation. Probably.
Chris Sale (ATL) – 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. Nah, we’re good.
Tyler Anderson (LAA) – 3.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. He’s a Toby at best and likely just a desperate streamer this year.
Logan Allen (CLE) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks. He has the #5 spot on lockdown and should be a Toby. We don’t draft those, but if you’re in a dire need for W/QS, he’s fine.
Kyle Muller (OAK) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. The line is solid and it definitely makes me wonder if he finds a way into the rotation, especially if Joe Boyle can’t find the strike zone in his next few appearances. I’m not a fan of how Muller telegraphs his slider and curve by slowing his arm and changing his arm path on release, but from my decently trained eye, his heater looked improved from last season (no data. Ugh.). I’m not calling a breakout here, though if that slider is legit and his heater has truly taken a step forward, he may be some sneaky value when he starts. After all, his command is good enough to go 5-6 frames.
Jordan Hicks (SFG) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. I watched all of this one and it was sinker/slider here with Hick’s slider looking far better than last year’s iteration. He had fantastic feel for it, using it both as a putaway offering and strike-earner, and is exactly what Hicks needs as a foundation with his power sinker to succeed. We’re not out of the woods yet, though. The booth said his sinker hit 97 mph in the first, though is that enough to maintain its elite ICR from last year? I attribute that to its 100+ mph velocity and I’m not sure it can be as effective at ~96/97 mph (not sure what he’s averaging now, I HAVE NO DATA). In addition, I’m not sure his slider will always look like this now, and I didn’t see a third pitch to help earn strikes, especially against LHB. No effective split-changeups as far as I could tell. Keep an eye on this as it’s clearly the best showcase of Hicks so far, and we still need another push or two before we can confidently draft him late.
Yerry Rodríguez (TEX) – 0.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits 1 BBs, 0 Ks. A bullpen game in the spring. What has this world come to.
Michael Grove (LAD) – 3.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Hot dang, look at you! Grove is a slider first arm without much to support it and seeing this line has me dreaming of a four-seamer approach that actually works or something else in the mix that dominated. Key word: Dreaming. In all likelihood, he wasn’t burned on the supporting cast and his slider led the way. Expect Grove in a piggy-back situation to fill in where needed, possibly coming in after Gavin Stone during his outings.
No Statcast – No TV
ARI vs. KCR
CHW vs. SDP
COL vs. CHC
SEA vs. MIL
MIA vs. WSH
Tommy Henry (ARI) – 3.2 IP, 5 ER, 10 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. And to think some believed he had a chance of ousting Ryne Nelson. Come on y’all, don’t trust people with two first names. But Ryne’s last name is—LET’S MOVE ON.
Michael Wacha (KCR) – 2.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Weird to see the two walks, but it’s the spring. Unless he’s hurt, Wacha will have his great command and elite changeup, making him a proper Toby in his ideal home park to keep his flyballs in the yard.
Michael Soroka (CHW) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. There was video for this and sadly it’s not archived, but I saw a few clips on Twitter and he had a vicious curve that I don’t recall him having before his Achilles injury. He’s a legit sleeper as the White Sox are going to lean heavily on Soroka for innings and he has a track record of strong command before injuries took him down. I can’t wait for some actual data here.
Matt Waldron (SDP) – 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. I’m thinking it’s Waldron + Brito for the Padres and that should get your attention in NL-Only leagues, especially in April and May when San Diego’s weather limits HRs. Something to consider.
Dakota Hudson (COL) – 2.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. I really can’t believe the Rockies are what they are.
Peter Lambert (COL) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. Seriously, my endgame is to buy the Rockies and my first order of business is to move them out of Denver (I’m sorry Rockies fans, but you simply can’t have a team play in that elevation. Maybe I’ll create a transport system to get to you wherever we move to. Like Portland or something.)
Thomas Pannone (CHC) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. With Assad and Smyly looking terrible and Caleb Kilian now on the shelf for a while, Pannone may be called upon if the Cubs lean on Hayden Wesneski in relief instead of stretched out as a starter. If the Cubs need help before Cade Horton is ready, Pannone may be the guy. No, that doesn’t mean much for fantasy, sadly.
Luis Castillo (SEA) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. Aces gonna ace. Man, it feels good typing that once again.
Freddy Peralta (MIL) – 2.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Not great, Bob. If you were already on the Peralta train, this shouldn’t deter you. Me, I’ve been off of it and will simply choose to ignore this line as we get more data in the next coming weeks. So this start doesn’t matter? Nope, not really.
A.J. Puk (MIA) – 3.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Apparently sat 92-94 and had strong command as he improved his velocity through the game. He’s beginning to look like a proper starter and I’m absolutely buying in. He’s not looking like a reliever who just chucks the ball – he’s using his stuff and actually focusing on locating and executing proper sequencing. I’m drafting him everywhere.
Zach Davies (WSH) – 3.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. You may see some Davies as the Nationals have zero depth outside of DJ Herz in the minors and while I see you there, just realizing for the first time that Davies was now a National, I’m allowing you to close this article and forget you ever knew.
What To Watch on TV Today
SPs to watch on TV today #SpringSPnotes
Updates via Plus Pitch Podcast & SP Roundup article.
MOAR ALBERT SUÁREZ
AJ Smith-Shawver – Still 96/97? Good secondaries?
Clarke Schmidt – What's the plan vs. LHB?
Garrett Whitlock – SHOW ME WHAT YOU GOT
Aaron Civale – More sliders?…— Nick Pollack (@PitcherList) March 10, 2024
OMG imagine Corbin and Davies back to back in a series? Hitters will be bribing Manager to get ABs!