Here are today’s daily SP Streamer rankings.
Every day of the 2023 baseball season, I’ll be looking at today and tomorrow’s slate of scheduled starting pitchers and ranking their matchups for your fantasy baseball streams.
There’s a lot that goes into this and you can hang out with me on Playback.tv/pitcherlist to talk about the specific ranks as I make them every weekday morning from 10am – 12pm ET. If you have questions about these ranks, please ask during the morning Playback AMA. Those are my office hours as I generally don’t answer comments on the site.
There are four tiers to these rankings with 12-teamers in mind:
Auto-Start – Just do it. Don’t overthink this, start the man. This includes “if I have them rostered, I’m starting them” pitchers.
Probably Start – I’m likely starting these arms, though I recognize there is more risk than we’d like there to be. Either it’s a tough matchup for a good-not-elite pitcher or a weak lineup for a volatile arm. These pitchers have a 50% or greater chance of performing well in my view.
Questionable Start – Think of this tier as “I don’t want to start these pitchers in a vacuum, but you could do worse.” Streamers found in this tier are not pitchers I’m targeting and are only if you are in dire need of one. To play it safe with streaming, just start the Probably Start streamers.
Do Not Start – The reward is not worth the risk. Don’t do it. Seriously, these pitchers have a very slim chance of success or sometimes none at all.
Obviously, there will be circumstances where pitchers should move between teams for your situation specifically and these new tiers should act as a little more help than the straight table from last year.
Please keep in mind that streaming is far from a perfect play. In fact, if they work out over half the time, I’d consider it a success. These matchup rankings & streamer picks are going to be wildly different than the actual results throughout the year, so please, have sympathy before the scathing comments and tweets. I’m only trying to help!
Make sure to read the notes if you’re wondering why I’m favoring certain pitchers over others – I won’t get to everyone and hopefully I answer what questions you will have.
There is a second table for tomorrow’s starting pitcher matchups as well, helping everyone get a jump on their nightly pickups. Please note that these matchups are subject to change, though, and there will be times when I have the incorrect pitcher going. I thank you for your future understanding.
Finally, there are my streaming picks of the day, and please keep in mind that I am forced to pick a streamer every day. Those highlighted in Green are that day’s streaming pick in the second tier and I’d roll with them everywhere. Those in Yellow are in the third tier and should be okay if you’re searching for something on a given day, but I don’t recommend streaming unless you’re in need. Finally, those are Red are those I really don’t want to start (they are labeled as “Do Not Start”, after all) but have no other choice. Don’t stream these guys until you are truly desperate. A streaming pick is defined as “rostered in 20% or fewer leagues,” which really emphasizes the point that I’d be happy if over 50% of these worked. I could do the whole sub 30/40% rostered, but there’s no fun in that. You can use the rankings to realize who would be those picks, instead.
(Opener) – Outlines that a pitcher is being opened for that day & the pitcher listed will follow the opener.
As I do my rankings, I thought it would be helpful to showcase a table of how we’re ranking offenses (in Alphabetical order):
I’m sure it’ll change through the year + there are differences to be made about teams vs. LHP or RHP, but it works as a general table that y’all should keep in mind.
Alright, let’s get to it.
This year, with our new daily fantasy baseball projections powered by PLV, I’ll be competing against PL Bot to pick the best streaming option each day.
To get access to PL Bot’s picks each day, sign up for PL Pro here.
The streaming record is determined by “Was this a productive game for 12-teamers if I started them?” Roughly a PQS with a Win and a strikeout per inning with a sub 1.20 WHIP, with a minimum of 5 IP. Close calls are decided by Playback chat.
Nick’s 2023 Streamer Record: 72-59
My pick yesterday: JP Sears @ STL
PL Bot’s 2023 Streamer Record: 67-64
PL Bot’s Pick yesterday: JP Sears @ STL
Want PL Bot’s pick today? Sign Up for PL Pro here.
With the new formatting for the notes, I’ve made the streaming pick of the day Underlined and Italicized.
Today’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
Auto-Starts
Zack Wheeler @ TOR – Aces gonna ace, even against Toronto. Wheeler is the only legit pitcher on Tuesday, oddly enough.
Bailey Ober vs. DET – You’re likely to see the Bailey Special and it’s the Tigers.
Probably Starts
Bobby Miller vs. MIL – I was tempted to slot Miller in the top tier, but he hasn’t showcased his elite ceiling much recently.
Yusei Kikuchi vs. PHI – Kikuchi has been steady with his breakers and heaters.
Jordan Montgomery vs. LAA – The Bear is solid. Not much more to say, really.
Nick Pivetta @ WSN – I dig the slider command for Pivetta, which he still had even when the starts didn’t go his way recently.
Emerson Hancock @ KCR – A fantastic matchup for Hancock, who showcased a solid sinker + potential upside in his changeup and cutter. I’d pick him up everywhere and possibly hold through Houston (even if that’s a likely bench + we’re uncertain if Woo makes his return in two weeks, if at all this year). I wouldn’t be shocked if we saw a six-man for the Mariners down the stretch if Woo returns to help the workloads of their young arms as Hancock.
Cristian Javier @ MIA – He would be in the third tier if not for Javier finally earning strikes with his slider last time out. I think you go for it here, even if there is a decent chance he relapses.
Kyle Hendricks vs. CHW – Hendricks’ command of sinkers and changeups have been here for many weeks now.
Questionable Starts
Jack Flaherty @ SDP – The Padres are a volatile crew and the four-seamer did dip back down a little more in his last outing. I like this, but I have some trepidation.
Graham Ashcraft vs. CLE – Is Ashcraft actually legit now? I’m not sure – last start was the first one where I actually liked his cutter – and the Guardians are excellent contact hitters.
Zack Littell @ SFG – Littell is a sneaky play for a Win as he should be able to survive at least five against the Giants in Oracle Park. Get the slider back down, though, please.
Lucas Giolito @ TEX – It’s the Rangers. Blegh. I’m tempted to slot him in the final tier, but I also dig what Giolito has done with his command lately.
Bryce Elder vs. NYY – He’s a Toby, even if he didn’t come through last time against the Pirates. The command wasn’t nearly as bad as the line suggested.
Logan Allen @ CIN – Ehhhh, there’s a shot here for Allen, but pitching in Cincy scares me.
Do Not Starts
Josiah Gray vs. BOS – The Red Sox are not great, but they can still swat mistake pitches with ease. Josiah throws a lot of them.
Johnny Cueto vs. HOU – There’s always a chance for Cueto magic. The ceiling if it does arrive does not outweigh the risk of facing Houston.
Dakota Hudson vs. OAK – It’s Oakland and if you’re in dire need of a Quality Start, Hudson could do it.
Freddy Tarnok @ STL – He threw just under 70 pitches and wasn’t that bad against the Rangers. It’s an easier start, he spouts a 95/96 mph with 94th percentile vertical movement. I’m going to have my eye on this one. STUPID CALF INJURY. I WAS SO EXCITED. (Poor guy)
Bailey Falter @ NYM – Falter has a shot here as we’ve seen him have success against mediocre squads now that he’s stretched out (don’t judge him too harshly for Atlanta last time out), but I’d like to see him do it first.
David Peterson vs. PIT – The slider is hinting at its old self but hasn’t been the pitch for him, while he’s still not fully stretched out – just 62 pitches thrown last time out.
Alex Faedo @ MIN – Faedo had his great slider last time, but the rest of his arsenal let him down.
Touki Toussaint @ CHC – There’s some strikeout potential here, but the Cubs are a threat.
Michael Wacha vs. BAL – It’s a Still ILL with his last outing coming on August 5th in Triple-A, where he tossed just under 50 pitches. I imagine he threw elsewhere after that one, but he’ll still be limited and facing an electric Orioles squad.
Jordan Lyles vs. SEA – At least they’ll let him throw to his heart’s desire.
Adrian Houser @ LAD – He’ll chuck heaters and they’ll likely find grass against the Dodgers.
Ty Blach vs. ARI – He’s been oddly good recently, but this is Coors. Coors is unde–yeah, we get it.
Tristan Beck vs. TBR – Beck isn’t the worst I’ve seen, but it’s the Rays.
Slade Cecconi @ COL – Slade isn’t the guy to chase.
UPDATE: Alex Wood (Opener) vs. TBR – With Jakob Junis starting this one, I imagine Wood gets the larger bulk of the two and is in the position to steal the Win if that’s what you want to do.
Arizona Bullpen @ COL – It’s likely Slade on Wednesday with a bullpen game today, or maybe Slade is in the pen and it’s a surprise for Wednesday.
Luis Severino @ ATL – Severino has been as rough as any arm and it’s Atlanta. Lol.
Tomorrow’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
Auto-Starts
Luis Castillo @ KCR – Aces gonna ace. Duh.
Kevin Gausman vs. PHI – Aces also gonna ace.
Clayton Kershaw vs. MIL – Gonna be an aces gonna ace soon.
Justin Verlander @ MIA – Probably not an aces gonna ace but it’s safer than Snell’s matchup.
Blake Snell vs. BAL – Aces gonna likely ace but also precarious with his walks and against an electric Orioles team.
James Paxton @ WSN – He’s been after the AGA tag and has been slightly trending down across his last three outings.
Kenta Maeda vs. DET – Maeda has certainly been an ace for you since returning from the IL, though his last outing was the first we saw where he didn’t earn splitter whiffs…against the Tigers. The slider stepped up and made most ignore it, and he’s fortunate to get them again. Let’s hope the splitter returns so he doesn’t have to do the same trick twice.
Probably Starts
Andrew Abbott vs. CLE – He rebounded in a big way last time out, though I’m not going to ignore the floor he’s displayed across the last month.
Aaron Nola @ TOR – I love that Nola is going mostly four-seamer and curve these days. I hate that the other 20% of his pitches are allowing so much damage. That has to end, right?
Jesús Luzardo vs. HOU – Nick, he’s been so rough lately! Yeah, I know. I also know his skills were there against the Rangers and he had a rare blip against the Yankees. I don’t think that’s the new bar for Luzardo now. I’m going for it.
Dean Kremer @ SDP – Kremer’s cutter has been fantastic and the Padres offense has been weird, to say the least. It’s a solid Win chance and if the four-seamers are peppered upstairs, he’s all good.
Aaron Civale @ SFG – Civale hasn’t been as smooth sailing as we hoped during his first two games with the Rays and we can only hope it’ll work out well in San Francisco. That’s as good as it can be.
Charlie Morton vs. NYY – Ehhhhhh, he’s such a Cherry Bomb but there is a great Win chance and strikeouts should be there.
Jon Gray vs. LAA – It was far better in San Francisco last time for Gray and while the four-seamer isn’t exactly precise, it’s better than we saw before, while the slider is cooking. I think it’s enough to believe he’s on an upward trend.
Questionable Starts
Matthew Liberatore vs. OAK – We saw the best Liberatore start of his career last time out. It’s unwise to believe he’s hit a plateau, though it’s likely worthwhile to take a shot here against a poor offense and see how he looks before everyone runs to the wire.
Javier Assad vs. CHW – Assad came through across seven frames against the Jays and yet…I’m not sold. It wasn’t an impressive arsenal and I think he got awfully fortunate. That said, it’s the White Sox and Assad’s cutter could be better located this time around to earn outs + sinkers inside to right-handers may tie up the poor White Sox lineup.
Johan Oviedo @ NYM – The slider is great, the four-seamer generally is not. He’s a Cherry Bomb through and through and that may be worthwhile against a demoralized Mets crew.
Reese Olson @ MIN – Olson had himself a strong outing last time out, though the changeup is not what I want it to be. He’s had that slider even in the poor outings, which speaks more to things going his way than a sustainable change. But hey, maybe he puts it together for a repeat matchup against the Twins.
Do Not Starts
Reid Detmers @ TEX – With Canning tossing 70 pitches in relief on Monday, I imagine the Angels will turn their six-man into a five-man and push Detmers up two days from Friday to Wednesday to pitch on four-days rest. It’s a far worse matchup for the young southpaw and I’d avoid it while hoping he flexes skills that make us want to jump back in a potential start against the Reds after.
MacKenzie Gore vs. BOS – He’s a Cherry Bomb who you may want to consider against the Red Sox, but Gore has been far worse in his last two months than the first two.
Mike Clevinger @ CHC – We’ve seen some Clevinger magic, I just hate chasing a guy who relies mostly on two pitches where neither one is exceptional.
Paul Blackburn @ STL – Blackburn didn’t have the skills we want with his slider and change last time out and for a guy who is already a risk given the team he pitches for, it makes for a tough gamble.
Ross Stripling vs. TBR – Stripling has moments and will likely get an opener to give him a higher Win chance, but the Rays are still dangerous – even if they are possibly distracted and stumbling lately.
Wade Miley @ LAD – Wade is looking solid, but it’s the Dodgers. Go for the next one as this carries a limited ceiling.
Tylor Megill vs. PIT – Megill isn’t doing enough with his slider and changeup.
Austin Gomber vs. ARI – Eight of his last nine starts have come with 2 ER or fewer, where he’s earned five Wins, a 2.72 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in that time…with just a 14.4% strikeout rate. This can’t continue…right?
Alec Marsh vs. SEA – Not the worst matchup I’ve seen, but Marsh is very distant from his eleven-strikeout game.
Noah Syndergaard @ CIN – Naaaaaaaah.
Randy Vásquez @ ATL – It’s Atlanta. I can see a world where Randy induces enough weak contact to survive, but hot dang good luck rolling that Nat 20.
Slade Cecconi @ COL – It’s Coors and Slade is not a pitcher to trust.
Featured Image by Kurt Wasemiller (@KUWasemiller on Twitter / @kurt_player02 on Instagram)
Nick,
Sorry to get a day ahead but lineups will lock today. Would you start Andrew Abbott vs. Guardians over Burnes vs. Dodgers? This is semifinals of my matchup and trying to pick someone who won’t blow up.