Here are today’s daily SP Streamer rankings.
Every day of the 2023 baseball season, I’ll be looking at today and tomorrow’s slate of scheduled starting pitchers and ranking their matchups for your fantasy baseball streams.
There’s a lot that goes into this and you can hang out with me on Playback.tv/pitcherlist to talk about the specific ranks as I make them every weekday morning from 10am – 12pm ET. If you have questions about these ranks, please ask during the morning Playback AMA. Those are my office hours as I generally don’t answer comments on the site.
There are four tiers to these rankings with 12-teamers in mind:
Auto-Start – Just do it. Don’t overthink this, start the man. This includes “if I have them rostered, I’m starting them” pitchers.
Probably Start – I’m likely starting these arms, though I recognize there is more risk than we’d like there to be. Either it’s a tough matchup for a good-not-elite pitcher or a weak lineup for a volatile arm. These pitchers have a 50% or greater chance of performing well in my view.
Questionable Start – Think of this tier as “I don’t want to start these pitchers in a vacuum, but you could do worse.” Streamers found in this tier are not pitchers I’m targeting and are only if you are in dire need of one. To play it safe with streaming, just start the Probably Start streamers.
Do Not Start – The reward is not worth the risk. Don’t do it. Seriously, these pitchers have a very slim chance of success or sometimes none at all.
Obviously, there will be circumstances where pitchers should move between teams for your situation specifically and these new tiers should act as a little more help than the straight table from last year.
Please keep in mind that streaming is far from a perfect play. In fact, if they work out over half the time, I’d consider it a success. These matchup rankings & streamer picks are going to be wildly different than the actual results throughout the year, so please, have sympathy before the scathing comments and tweets. I’m only trying to help!
Make sure to read the notes if you’re wondering why I’m favoring certain pitchers over others – I won’t get to everyone and hopefully I answer what questions you will have.
There is a second table for tomorrow’s starting pitcher matchups as well, helping everyone get a jump on their nightly pickups. Please note that these matchups are subject to change, though, and there will be times when I have the incorrect pitcher going. I thank you for your future understanding.
Finally, there are my streaming picks of the day, and please keep in mind that I am forced to pick a streamer every day. Those highlighted in Green are that day’s streaming pick in the second tier and I’d roll with them everywhere. Those in Yellow are in the third tier and should be okay if you’re searching for something on a given day, but I don’t recommend streaming unless you’re in need. Finally, those are Red are those I really don’t want to start (they are labeled as “Do Not Start”, after all) but have no other choice. Don’t stream these guys until you are truly desperate. A streaming pick is defined as “rostered in 20% or fewer leagues,” which really emphasizes the point that I’d be happy if over 50% of these worked. I could do the whole sub 30/40% rostered, but there’s no fun in that. You can use the rankings to realize who would be those picks, instead.
(Opener) – Outlines that a pitcher is being opened for that day & the pitcher listed will follow the opener.
As I do my rankings, I thought it would be helpful to showcase a table of how we’re ranking offenses (in Alphabetical order):
I’m sure it’ll change through the year + there are differences to be made about teams vs. LHP or RHP, but it works as a general table that y’all should keep in mind.
Alright, let’s get to it.
This year, with our new daily fantasy baseball projections powered by PLV, I’ll be competing against PL Bot to pick the best streaming option each day.
To get access to PL Bot’s picks each day, sign up for PL Pro here.
The streaming record is determined by “Was this a productive game for 12-teamers if I started them?” Roughly a PQS with a Win and a strikeout per inning with a sub 1.20 WHIP, with a minimum of 5 IP. Close calls are decided by Playback chat.
Nick’s 2023 Streamer Record: 92-70
My pick yesterday: Reese Olson vs. CIN
PL Bot’s 2023 Streamer Record: 82-80
PL Bot’s Pick yesterday: Tanner Houck vs. NYY
Want PL Bot’s pick today? Sign Up for PL Pro here.
With the new formatting for the notes, I’ve made the streaming pick of the day Underlined and Italicized.
Today’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
Auto-Starts
Gerrit Cole @ PIT – Aces gonna ace.
Justin Steele @ ARI – Aces gonna ace.
Tarik Skubal @ LAA – Aces gonna ace.
Zach Eflin @ BAL – He was terrible, then better, but the cutter is still not quite back yet. Forget I said that, just start him.
Seth Lugo @ OAK – It’s Oakland and Lugo has been steady against all but the elite offenses.
José Berríos vs. BOS – Ditto for Berríos, but it’s the Sawx, not Athletics.
Hunter Greene @ NYM – There is some obvious risk after we witnessed his terrible return from the IL, but his fastball and slider were better than the results and the Mets aren’t scaring me, especially outside Cincy.
Probably Starts
Bobby Miller @ SEA – Bobby 100 hasn’t found his slider quite yet, but the hook has been magnificent.
UPDATE: Logan Webb @ COL – Webb has been solid and Coors isn’t as scary as it once was. You’re gonna have some tough choices with Webb in the final weeks.
George Kirby vs. LAD – It’s the Dodgers but Kirby you have to rely on the overall resume of Kirby here. If you prefer a Toby start, go ahead, though they don’t have the same ceiling.
Bryce Elder @ MIA – He’s a Toby for a winning club against a middling squad.
Griffin Canning vs. DET – This is your strikeout stream…except he’s over 20% rostered. FINE. Start him here, his secondaries are great.
Wade Miley vs. WSN – The Nationals have been atrocious against LHP the last two weeks and Miley is a boring Toby who should do his thing without interruption.
Aaron Nola @ STL – He’s more like a Cherry Bomb these days, but are we really benching him here? I honestly don’t blame you if you are.
Jon Gray @ CLE – Gray was in a great groove before losing his command last time out. I’m willing to give him one excuse for a blip and throw him out there again. The slider is too good and the fastball has been far better across the last month.
Questionable Starts
David Peterson vs. CIN – He was able to get ten whiffs on four-seamers last time out with high heaters and the Reds on the road is a great matchup. That said, that fastball performance looks like a peak, not a plateau, and his secondaries are still suspiciously average.
Bailey Ober @ CHW – We could be seeing Ober return from Triple-A after just one start of 65 pitches, where he did flash a curveball for about 15% usage. If he’s going here, expect about 75 pitches of production across five frames. It’s a limited ceiling (Unlikely for a Bailey Special) but could still be worthwhile. The Twins may be keeping him on this short leash throughout the end of the year to limit his innings, too.
Lucas Giolito vs. TEX – It’s the Rangers and Giolito has turned into a Cherry Bomb. I have him this “high” inside the tier of “I’m not starting them but I understand why you’d be in a situation to do so” given his ceiling when it all clicks sitting as high (if not higher) as the ones below.
Brayan Bello @ TOR – It’s the Jays and Bello doesn’t pack a wallop.
Johan Oviedo vs. NYY – I have Oviedo above the other Cherry Bomb options below given he’s slider focused against a Yankee offense that his highly susceptible to a strong slider approach.
Jack Flaherty vs. TBR – I still believe Flaherty should be getting better results than he has over the last couple weeks, but this is the Rays and a bit too risky.
Cristian Javier @ KCR – We saw excellence, then it dissipated. You can’t trust it to appear again, but if it does…
Brandon Pfaadt vs. CHC – It’s a four-seamer and sweeper that find the zone often and not much else (the changeup is too infrequent). The Cubs punished him last time and it could be more of the same.
Keaton Winn @ COL – The dude had 18 splitter whiffs and an overall 48% CSW last start. I know this is Coors and that was Rockie Road, but there’s a chance it repeats, right? Yeah, you very much bench in most situations.
Zack Thompson vs. PHI – This is awfully close to Do Not Start, but I recognize that Thompson has flashes where he commands his fastball + cutter + curveball mix effectively. He didn’t last time out, but that doesn’t mean he can’t rebound, even against a strong offense.
Do Not Starts
Jake Irvin @ MIL – I really don’t buy into Irvin’s approach of curveballs + two heaters, especially if said heaters aren’t the 95/96 mph pitches he flirted with weeks ago.
UPDATE: Chase Anderson vs. SFG – He couldn’t handle the Giants outside of Coors, but at least he gets another shot. There’s a chance, however small.
Peter Lambert vs. SFG – It’s Coors and Lambert couldn’t do it outside of it.
Jesse Scholtens vs. MIN – Scholtens is a Werewolf at best and that’s not good.
Johnny Cueto vs. ATL – It’s Altanta.
Zack Greinke vs. HOU – Greinke does what Greinke does.
Sean Newcomb vs. SDP – He’ll likely piggy-back with Kyle Muller and the Padres crush left-handers. Absolutely not.
Tomorrow’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
Auto-Starts
Pablo López @ CHW – Aces gonna ace.
Tyler Glasnow @ BAL – Aces gonna ace.
Corbin Burnes vs. WSN – I want to say he’s an ace, but just do it again? Thanks.
Grayson Rodriguez vs. TBR – He’s killing it and even against the Rays, it’s a clear start.
Probably Starts
Cole Ragans vs. HOU – I wanted him in the top tier, but the Astros are one of the deadliest offenses around at the moment and the Shag Rug still exists for Ragans, despite my adoration of his skills. Then there’s that weirdness at the end of his last start (that I don’t expect to have any impact) that I have to give some factor to.
Chris Bassitt vs. BOS – He’s opponent agnostic.
Tanner Bibee vs. TEX – At this point, do you really care that it’s Texas? I wouldn’t be shocked if his command betrayed him and the Rangers punished him for it, but you’re not benching him, are you.
Kyle Hendricks @ ARI – He’s vying for Spider-Man this year.
J.P. France @ KCR – France is a solid play for a Win against the lowly Royals.
Clayton Kershaw @ SEA – If he’s starting, to me it means the Dodgers aren’t overwhelmingly considered about his velocity drop from his last outing. Still, it could flare up and the Mariners have thump these days.
Sawyer Gipson-Long @ LAA – Many aren’t even aware of who this fella is and I suggest watching my video breakdown of him here. In short, think Logan Webb with a great changeup + solid slider + sinker for called strikes. That works against the Angels, but there is a Shag Rug here after just one start in the bigs.
Tyler Anderson vs. DET – This is a solid play…as long as Anderson has his changeup cooking. He got by without heavy slowball usage last time and I hope it climbs back up here.
Ranger Suárez @ STL – Suárez was locked in last time out and he generally goes on hot streaks when his clicks into rhythm.
Andrew Abbott @ NYM – Abbott hasn’t been the guy you fell for in July, though pitching on the road should help.
Tylor Megill vs. CIN – Megill’s four-seamer is good, though I question how consistent his slider can be. The changeup is too unreliable to bank on it here.
Questionable Starts
Bryce Miller vs. LAD – I think we can drop Bryce from our squads with his remaining schedule – this is just the start of it. There’s a chance, though, and I hope he proves me wrong.
Dane Dunning @ CLE – Dunning had better sliders and cutters in his last start, but it’s still unknown if he’ll find them again.
Chris Sale @ TOR – Sale’s velocity is dropping precipitously and the Jays can punish him better than most.
Keaton Winn @ COL – The dude had 18 splitter whiffs and an overall 48% CSW last time out. Maybe he can replicate that in Coors against the same offense…?
Do Not Starts
Zach Davies vs. CHC – Even when he has his changeup, Davies isn’t guaranteed success, especially against the Cubs.
Alex Cobb @ COL – Cobb’s splitter is volatile (shocker!) and he’s been dealing with a hip injury for months. Oh, and Coors.
Miles Mikolas vs. PHI – Mikolas ain’t it, y’all.
Luis L. Ortiz vs. NYY – There’s an outside chance the Yankees flounder in their typical ways.
Mason Miller vs. SDP – I love Mason, but it looks like he’s being limited to about 50 pitches and that’s dumb. There’s a fair case to slot him lower in these ranks for that reason, however I think his chance of “not hurting” is higher than the others.
Matt Waldron @ OAK – Don’t Trust A Knuckleballer.
Jared Shuster @ MIA – Shuster isn’t the man I became infatuated with in the spring.
Kyle Freeland vs. SFG – It’s Coors and Freeland is a Werewolf.
Touki Toussaint vs. MIN – If he goes 40-50% curveballs, there’s a chance for strikeouts.
Trevor Williams @ MIL – Team #NeverTrevor.
Peter Lambert vs. SFG – It’s Coors.
Luke Weaver? @ PIT – Is he actually starting for the Yankees? Will they let him go five?
Bryan Hoeing vs. ATL – Hoeing doesn’t go long and it’s Atlanta.
Sunday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
Auto-Starts
Brandon Woodruff vs. WSN – Aces gonna ace.
Sonny Gray @ CHW – Sonny is a little more volatile than we hope and oddly went four-seamer + cutter last time, which is not what we want.
Framber Valdez @ KCR – Framber is throwing more curves (finally) and it’s the Royals. Now get the cutter back please.
Probably Starts
Charlie Morton @ MIA – The Win chance and potential strikeouts against the Marlins make this a clear play, even if the ratio volatility can be frustrating.
José Quintana vs. CIN – He’s locked in as a Toby and the Reds are not scary.
Hyun Jin Ryu vs. BOS – He’s a Toby and Boston isn’t nearly as rough on the road.
Carlos Rodón @ PIT – Rodón finally sat 96 mph last time out and it pushed nine strikeouts in Fenway – no small feat. Now it’s the lowly Pirates and things could get fun fast.
Dean Kremer vs. TBR – His cutter was off last time out. I don’t expect that to persist.
Jordan Wicks @ ARI – Wicks’ last outing was in Coors and he overly compensated armside with everything. I’m curious to see how he continues to develop, especially in an easier situation against the Sneks. His changeup is good enough to make this worthwhile.
Questionable Starts
Logan Gilbert vs. LAD – It’s the Dodgers and I’m not sure how much faith I have in Gilbert’s four-seamer at the moment.
Jesús Luzardo vs. ATL – Ugggggh. He came through against the Padres and Dodgers and then sputtered against the Brewers. Now it’s Atlanta and good luck.
Gavin Williams vs. TEX – Williams is a Cherry Bomb with a luscious ceiling but do we want to chase it against the Rangers?
Dylan Cease vs. MIN – We know the strikeout impact Cease can make, but he’s as standard of a Cherry Bomb you’ll find.
Reid Detmers vs. DET – I didn’t expect to see this matchup for Detmers and it’s a bit more tempting than the Rays. I wonder if that changeup is real and sticks around.
Taijuan Walker @ STL – I have such a hard time trusting Walker on a given night with his fastball degradation and precarious splitter and cutter combo.
Nick Pivetta @ TOR – He looked great against the Yankees, but this is the Jays and I’m not sure how much we can trust it.
Zack Littell @ BAL – The man can’t get a Win and he’s due. That’s the Gamblar’s Fallacy. YOU’RE THE GAMBLER’S FALLACY. He pitched better last time out and I like it more than the volatility and poor matchups of those below him in this tier.
Andrew Heaney @ CLE – He’s a Cherry Bomb. Good luck.
Brandon Williamson @ NYM – I really wish I could get behind this, but Williamson lost all the things we liked about him in his last start. Velocity was down two ticks, changeup wasn’t there, and his command was worse. Nevertheless, it’s possible this was just rust that needed to be shaken off after a two-week hiatus on the COVID-IL.
Emmet Sheehan @ SEA – It looks like he’s getting the chance to start and pitching for the Dodgers is a very good thing to do for fantasy. However, it may not be long, his whiff rates are up-and-down, and the Mariners are always a threat to put up a crooken number.
Ryne Nelson vs. CHC – I’m not as encouraged by Nelson’s breaker as I want to be and the Cubs are a solid crew. He could be taking a step forward, though.
Do Not Starts
Joey Wentz @ LAA – This is the sneakiest play here as Wentz has flashed strikeout ability and the Angels are one of the weaker teams out there.
Andre Jackson vs. NYY – Andre has had some luck in the past and the Yankees are prone to dry nights.
Sean Manaea @ COL – I’m stoked the Giants are letting Manaea actually start and toss over 80 pitches, but why does it have to be Coors?
Patrick Corbin @ MIL – We just saw Corbin acrue all the slider whiffs last time out, executing the BSB. I’ve seen Corbin have moments of brilliance many times this year, only to fall back down the following outing.
Dakota Hudson vs. PHI – Hudson always has a weird chance of going six innings if you’re in dire “MUST GET QS” mode. I know how that can be.
Ken Waldichuk vs. SDP – Waldichuk showcased promise with a legit changeup last time out and if this were a stellar matchup, I’d actually be encouraged. The Padres crushed lefties, though, and Ken is not the same doll every time.
Pedro Avila @ OAK – It’s a great matchup, unfortunately Avila hasn’t had the skills you want to see to suggest starting him.
Chris Flexen vs. SFG – Flexen has survived in Coors before…
Jordan Lyles vs. HOU – He’s a Werewolf but come on y’all. It’s Houston.
Featured Image by Kurt Wasemiller (@KUWasemiller on Twitter / @kurt_player02 on Instagram)
Why is Kirby crossed out for today? Y’all know something that we don’t?
SUNDAY: Need a WIN, and maybe a QS if I’m lucky…. Nothing else matters. Options are: Littell, Williamson, Manaea. Lets here your pick. Thanks man, enjoy your work.