The List 4/26: Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2021 – Week 5

It’s the weekly tradition here at Pitcher List where I rank the Top 100 Starting Pitchers in fantasy baseball and it’s time for Week 4’s starting pitcher rankings.

Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 12:00pm EST as I live-stream its creation each week!

As always, make sure to read the notes as there are many changes that have good reasons behind them, and please consider that these ranks are based on a 12-teamer, 5×5 roto format. Adjust accordingly to your situation.

 

Ranking Notes

 

• This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
• Seriously. Read the notes.

 

• No, Jacob deGrom is not getting his own tier, despite being the featured pitcher this week. He’s dope and makes us all feel dope, but Shane Bieber and Gerrit Cole are pretty dope, too. And that’s lovely.
• It wasn’t easy to do, but I felt I had no choice but to raise Trevor Bauer to the #5 spot as he’s 1) is being allowed to hold consistently high pitch counts 2) is pitching at the same ability from last year and 3) will have an easier schedule than Coors and 2x SDP moving forward.

 

• I’ve extended Tier 2 to include Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, and Lance Lynn as all of them are showcasing legit ability + are allowed to go deep into games. No, Burnes doesn’t travel higher up the list despite his high quality of innings – he still has the lowest expected volume of the bunch.
• Lynn is expected to return on Friday and you should slot him in right away. No reason to hold him back against Cleveland. Sorry, that’s an innate -1 for everyone below #13 on The List.

 

• Tier 3 is a small one this week, with Tyler Glasnow falling a touch. While he had his slider command in the early portion of the season, it’s fallen off lately, displaying an uglier side of Glasnow. The ceiling is still massive, but it’s more wobbly than the rest.
• I was tempted to slot Zac Gallen ahead of Glasnow given his return and comfort with his curveball, but there’s still a slight question about his innings for the rest of the season. If you were able to snag the injured Gallen in your leagues at a discount, you should be celebrating.

 

• There was a ton of debate about what to do with Tier 4 inside the Twitch Chat, especially with Luis Castillo. I elected to keep him inside the Top 20 believing that Castillo should rebound as the season continues. He’s had rough Aprils in the past and once he’s in full rhythm, he’s clearly a Top 15 option.
• Really, Tiers 4-6 can be shuffled around plenty, but I wanted to give some love to Charlie Morton, Julio Urias, and Joe Musgrove. Each have come out guns blazing and have the skill set to keep them steady through the year.

 

• I placed a quartet of underperformers in Tier 5, all of whom have a TIARA and I expect to improve as the season goes on. It’s very easy to want the pitchers in Tier 6 over them and I doubt blame anyone who feels that way – we still have over five months left of the season, however, and each of those pitchers have a track record to show this is a blip, not a crash.
• Yes, that does include Kenta Maeda, who has yet to find his changeup. It’s been there for so long for him, he’ll get it back.

 

• Tier 6 has plenty of the fun guys. Trevor Rogers keeps climbing and I hope to push him up with every week as he affirms his talent. Kevin Gausman has also done his part to suggest his 2020 ascension was not an anomaly and I hope his fastball/splitter approach can propel him through the year.
• Some may want Pablo Lopez higher in this Tier. I’m hesitant to support his approach that’s rooted in a somewhat volatile changeup and command of his four-seamer. If he’s able to find a groove with his cutter or breaking ball, PabLo could rise quickly.

 

• Tier 7 has a collection of arms who seem to be on the precipice of pushing Top 35. Aaron Civale hasn’t quite gotten locked in with his repertoire yet, an important landmark for a pitcher who relies on the whole being more than the sum of its parts. If he’s able to mix-and-match effectively or find that one true money pitch, Civale will take leaps forward.
• Dustin May has solidified his spot in the Dodgers rotation and the introduction of his curveball has ballooned his strikeout numbers. I’m still not in love with his sinker being the defacto fastball, but he’s clearly a starter you should trust moving forward.

 

• Tier 8 is where is starts to get messy. Like, really messy. You’re going to have problems with this and I don’t blame you.
• For real, if you have a major disagreement with anyone starting with Eduardo Rodriguez, I’m sure it’s a fair argument. The lines blur fast as it’s a mixture of proven arms who are in a rut, upside pitchers who have yet to fully stretch their wings, those fortunate to have schedules of bliss, and solid, reliable arms who don’t offer much of a ceiling. Please don’t be too upset.

 

• So yeah, here I was, planning on dropping Jameson Taillon and Corey Kluber outside the Top 50 and I just can’t. Yes, Eduardo, Freddy Peralta, and Huascar Ynoa are a bit more exciting and could hold onto their success through the year, but in the end, I’d rather hold Taillon and Kluber for another week or two to see if they blossom before taking the “hot stuff of the week” who could be gone before May starts.
• That includes Chris Paddack as well, who hasn’t quite sold me yet on his recovery, but has at least managed to keep your ratios intact along the way.

 

• Tier 9 is… a lot. There’s a part of me that wanted all of Alex Wood through Cristian Javier to be inside Tier 8, but at the same time, all of the early arms have their cases to be made as well. Marcus Stroman can be a consistent rock through the year. Jordan Montgomery’s underlying pitch metrics indicate success with his cutter, changeup, and breakers. Triston McKenzie needs another start or two to get into rhythm, but has legit upside. And so on. It’s messy, I told ya.
• I want to be more in on Matthew Boyd, but without his slider earning whiffs, I’m hesitant to believe this is more than a Vargas Rule. Please, prove me wrong Boyd.

 

• I’m worried that what we’re seeing from Andrew Heaney is one of his patented hot streaks where his yearly undulation will show itself in the near future. Still, ten strikeouts against Houston with excellent pitch separation is something to cheer about.
• It’s frustrating to wait for Jose Urquidy to reach his potential, but it’s hard for me to lower him too far after struggling in Coors. He should be much better and help your squads through the year.

 

• Speaking of Astros, Cristian Javier returned this past week with a different approach on his breaker, finally earning whiffs with the vicious offering. If it sticks, he can be Top 50 arm quickly.
• Ryan Weathers arrived and wowed all of us as he nibbled the edges with fastballs and mixed sliders to great effect. With Dinelson Lamet and Adrian Morejon vacating a rotation spot, Weathers could run away with this.

 

• Things get more precarious in Tier 10. I’m excited to see Sean Manaea get more whiffs and I’m not sure it’ll stick. Still, it’s worth a bump over his teammate Chris Bassitt for as long as they’re here.
• Robbie Ray finally pumped fastballs in the zone for a start and walked away with nine strikeouts and zero walks. I truly hope it’s something that sticks.

 

• And here’s Patrick Corbin. Do I think he’s this bad for all of 2021? No. Do I think he’s struggling right now? Absolutely. It’s the point where we consider he could make the tweak and turn into a legit Top 30 arm again soon, but we just don’t know when.
• Look, I don’t know how to properly rank German Marquez given the whole Coors thing, but the man had both his slider and curveball working in his last start and it was glorious. If he can keep that up, there’s a chance he could be like his 2018 self again.

 

• Tier 11 is where you’ll find most of your Toby options, with Dallas Keuchel technically falling, but actually keeping the same relative perception I had last week – the rank is all relative to the SP landscape!
• Madison Bumgarner makes his return to The List with his fastball velocity at 91 mph, propelling him to a no-hitter on Sunday. Now with Rockie Road and 2x Miami ahead, he should be a serviceable option in 12-teamers.

 

• Adbert Alzolay also makes his return as he faced Freddy Peralta for the third time this season. His fastball/slider combination makes for an intriguing strikeout play, one who could improve with more experience on the bump.
• Jon Gray also gets his introduction as he has a solid schedule ahead, including a road start in Arizona. He’s tossing the ball as well as we’ve seen him and you may want to capitalize.

 

• Michael Pineda falls 25 spots as his time as a Vargas Rule may be coming to an end. That slider was not pretty, at all.
• Don’t overlook the great schedule ahead for Wade Miley as he could scoop up some wins and Quality Starts against the Cubs, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh

 

• Taijuan Walker drops as I’ve found myself not loving his approach. It’s a fastball that has fallen in and out of command, without a strong supporting cast to help him stay above water.
• Despite the solid schedule ahead, I dropped Matt Shoemaker as he’s fallen out of rhythm with his slider + he doesn’t have his splitter back.

 

• Deivi Garcia, Kwang Hyun Kim, Adam Wainwright, Spencer Turnbull, and Drew Smyly all make their entrances this week. Garcia is getting the call against the Orioles today and we just don’t know what to expect. Kim exploded for eight strikeouts and may continue the streak. Wainwright has found his curveball/cutter combo again, Turnbull has a solid matchup against the Royals, and Smyly, despite his stumble against Arizona, could be a benefit now that he’s back from the IL.

 

• Domingo German returned and gave an underwhelming performance against Cleveland, with a mediocre fastball and decent breaking ball. I’m not sold he can take advantage of the Tigers this week.
• After flirting with a no-hitter, I had to give some love to J.A. Happ who could be a worthy streamer as the Twins celebrate a cushy schedule ahead.

 

• Dylan Cease falls as he still can’t figure out his command – even against the Rangers. There’s little reason to suggest he gets it next time out.
• I’m not sold that Dane Dunning has a lot in that arsenal save for a slider, forcing him to fall into the final tier. It’s a risky proposition to trust him moving forward, save for the weakest of offenses.

 

 

My rule for moving from the IL back to the rankings: If they are confirmed to return before the next edition of The List, then I will add them.

All right, now that the notes are at the top and you understand where I’m coming from, let’s get to The List:

Rank	Pitcher	Team	Badges	Change
1	Jacob deGromT1	TEX	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
2	Shane Bieber	TOR	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
3	Gerrit Cole	NYY	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
4	Yu Darvish T2	SD	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
5	Trevor Bauer	LAD	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+3
6	Aaron Nola	PHI	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
7	Lucas Giolito	SD	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
8	Walker Buehler	SD	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
9	Max Scherzer	TOR	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
10	Clayton Kershaw	SD	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
11	Brandon Woodruff	MIL	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
12	Corbin Burnes	ARI	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+1
13	Lance Lynn		Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+UR
14	Tyler Glasnow T3	LAD	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips	-3
15	Zac Gallen	ARI	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
16	Jack Flaherty	DET	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-2
17	Blake Snell	LAD	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips	+1
18	Luis Castillo T4	SEA	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	-2
19	Hyun Jin Ryu		Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-
20	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+1
21	Charlie Morton	SD	Ace Potential Injury Risk Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+2
22	Julio Urías		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+6
23	Joe Musgrove	SD	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+6
24	Lance McCullers Jr.	HOU	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips	-2
25	Dylan Bundy		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+5
26	Sonny Gray T5	BOS	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	-2
27	Zack Wheeler	PHI	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-7
28	Kenta Maeda	SD	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Low Ips	-11
29	Zach Plesac	STL	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-4
30	José Berríos T6	TOR	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-4
31	Zack Greinke		Ace Potential Quality Starts	-4
32	Kevin Gausman	TOR	Ace Potential Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+5
33	Trevor Rogers	BAL	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+5
34	John Means		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
35	Tyler Mahle	SF	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-4
36	Pablo López	MIN	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-4
37	Ian Anderson T7	ATL	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	-2
38	Jesús Luzardo	PHI	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside	-4
39	Aaron Civale		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-6
40	Dustin May	STL	Ace Potential Low Ips Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	+7
41	Frankie Montas	SD	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-2
42	Kyle Hendricks		Ace Potential Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-1
43	Carlos Rodón	NYY	Ace Potential Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+1
44	Eduardo Rodriguez T8	ARI	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	+8
45	Freddy Peralta	NYM	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+3
46	Huascar Ynoa	LAA	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+8
47	Jameson Taillon	CHC	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-7
48	Corey Kluber		Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-6
49	Chris Paddack	MIA	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
50	Marcus Stroman T9		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-7
51	Jordan Montgomery	TEX	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside	-5
52	Triston McKenzie	SD	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+3
53	Nathan Eovaldi	TEX	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+3
54	José Urquidy		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question	-9
55	Andrew Heaney		Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+7
56	Matthew Boyd	CHC	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+1
57	Alex Wood		Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	+14
58	Danny Duffy		Quality Starts Toby Streaming Option	+17
59	Ryan Weathers	NYY	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+UR
60	Cristian Javier	HOU	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+UR
61	Steven Matz	TB	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	-1
62	Zach Eflin	BAL	Ace Potential Quality Starts Streaming Option	-1
63	Sean Manaea T10	NYM	Injury Risk Toby Ratio Focused	+5
64	Chris Bassitt	BAL	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	-5
65	Robbie Ray	SF	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	+11
66	Patrick Corbin	TOR	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-17
67	JT Brubaker	SF	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-2
68	Yusei Kikuchi	LAA	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-17
69	Germán Márquez	SD	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+9
70	Shohei Ohtani	LAD	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-12
71	Brady Singer	CIN	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-2
72	Dallas Keuchel T11		Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	-9
73	Marco Gonzales	SD	Quality Starts Toby	-7
74	Madison Bumgarner		Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
75	Justin Dunn		Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	-2
76	Adbert Alzolay	NYM	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+UR
77	Anthony DeSclafani		Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-7
78	Michael Pineda		Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-25
79	Wade Miley		Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+7
80	Kyle Gibson		Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-1
81	Mike Minor		Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+7
82	Ryan Yarbrough	NYY	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-1
83	Jon Gray		Strikeout Upside	+UR
84	Taijuan Walker T12	PHI	Quality Starts Toby Streaming Option	-20
85	Matt Shoemaker		Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-11
86	Deivi García		Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+UR
87	Kwang Hyun Kim		Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
88	Adam Wainwright		Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+12
89	Spencer Turnbull	KC	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+UR
90			Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+UR
91	Domingo Germán T13		Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+UR
92	Dane Dunning	SEA	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-15
93	J.A. Happ		Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
94	Taylor Widener		Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	-3
95	Bruce Zimmermann	STL	Playing Time Question Toby Streaming Option	+4
96	Dylan Cease	TOR	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	-24
97	Griffin Canning	SD	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-14
98	Joe Ross	ARI	Toby Streaming Option	-6
99	Jakob Junis	TEX	Playing Time Question Streaming Option	-14
100	David Peterson	NYM	Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	-20

Photo by Quinn Harris/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)