The List 6/1: Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2021 – Week 10

It’s the weekly tradition here at Pitcher List where I rank the Top 100 Starting Pitchers in fantasy baseball and it’s time for Week 10’s starting pitcher rankings.

Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 12:00pm EST as I live-stream its creation each week!

Have questions? My “office hours” are on Twitch 8:30am – 11:00am EST Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream for The List.

As always, make sure to read the notes as there are many changes that have good reasons behind them, and please consider that these ranks are based on a 12-teamer, 5×5 roto format. Adjust accordingly to your situation.

For those unaware:

• Cherry Bomb = A volatile pitcher who is either super sweet or blows up in your face. There are few middle grounds.
• Toby = A middling pitcher who you can’t decide if they do enough to stay on your team and give you the itch to drop every single day. Named after Toby from The Office.

Here are the rules for those wondering why a pitcher is or isn’t ranked here:

1. If a pitcher is on the IL or out of the rotation and not confirmed for a start this week, they are pushed into the Fringe table.
2. If a pitcher is in a rotation and not confirmed to start but has not been placed on the IL or officially removed, they remain on The List.
3. These rankings are made as if I am drafting a team today for the rest of the season.
4. This means the Top 40-50 picks are more for ROS, while the rankings after are more short-term focused.
5. I will only incorporate a game played on Monday if the pitcher’s performance is completed before 2:00pm EST.

 

Ranking Notes

 

• This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
• Seriously. Read the notes.

 

• It’s time to grant Jacob deGrom his own tier. The man is simply better than everyone else and it’s not fair.
• That opens the door for a larger Tier 2, extending down to Corbin Burnes. I can see some wanting Yu Darvish below Trevor Bauer or Shane Bieber climbing back up to #3, but at its core, not much has changed here. Let’s just leave them and nod our heads in approval to all of them.

 

• Two major changes in the third tier. Zack Wheeler has been a force as of late, tallying a ridiculous 31% strikeout rate thus far, while he’s among the elites in volume. While I’m skeptical he can sustain these strikeout numbers, he’s pitching a level worthy of the #12 spot.
• Lucas Giolito had a bump in the road and has seemingly arrived on the other side, whiffing sixteen with his changeup last time out. It’s time we regard him as an elite starter again.

 

• With Giolito moving up, there’s an innate drop for many in tier four – yes that means Max Fried loses a spot without pitching a game. 
• You may be surprised to see Carlos Rodón gain two spots despite sputtering last time out. Seeing his fastball maintain its 96 mph velocity is everything and indicates a blip more than a dip in ability.

 

• It’s been frustrating watching the Padres handle Joe Musgrove, forcing me to drop him into Tier 5. Hopefully it was just a one-game thing, but Musgrove pitching in relief on Sunday showcases chaos that we just don’t want to handle as fantasy managers.
• Freddy Peralta gets a bump as he’s been in a rhythm with his hyper-crossbody delivery. I’m a bit skeptical it can last for a full four months, but the results are undeniable.

 

• Despite mixed results in his last start, Alex Wood came out of a two-start gauntlet against the Dodgers in good shape. His 92 mph heater + elite slider make him a must-roster at this point in the year.
• I’m a little worried about Robbie Ray taking a step back with his fastball command in his last start against the Yankees and while I expected to move him down this week, those behind him didn’t do enough to leapfrog Ray.

 

• Tier 6 is a weird one. We have household names who are teetering between their former selves and a floor we never want to see and it makes for a difficult ranking. Blake Snell has looked atrocious in his last two starts, but his raw stuff is as good as ever. A rage drop would overlook the dozens of examples of poor small stretches we’ve seen from excellent arms in the past, and Snell should recover as the season progresses.

 

• Shane McClanahan has pitched at least five frames in each of his last three starts as he boasts a 3.29 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and near 30% strikeout rate. Here’s to hoping he’s able to go a proper six frames in the near future as his stuff is phenomenal.
• Tyler Mahle wasn’t at his peak with his fastball in his last start as his slider picked up the slack to help him cruise to the finish line. Expect the heater to come back to full form.

 

• Tier 7 houses a solid group of arms who you may have been able to snag off the wire this year. After a tough schedule and matching results to begin the season, Chris Bassitt has dominated as of late, forcing a #40 spot this week.
• His teammate Sean Manaea has also improved, recently boasting 92 mph on his fastball and fantastic secondaries, earning the affection of managers everywhere.

 

• Framber Valdez returned from the IL and gave four decent innings of work against the strong Padres offense. I imagine he’ll continue to ramp up the workload and become a solid arm for 12-teamers through the rest of the year.
• It’s hard not to like what Yusei Kikuchi is doing at the moment, going six frames constantly while pumping 96+ mph fastballs. His cutter and slider have done an excellent job as well, making for a consistently good play in your leagues.

 

• We have a trio of new names in the eighth tier, starting with Alek Manoah. I wanted to place him higher on The List, but we need to see more consistency than just one outing before doing so. His overall stuff isn’t as elite as those in the Top 20, but his confidence to trust all three options in any count + above-average pitches across the repertoire makes him a good floor option.
• Jose Urquidy and Taijuan Walker each returned from the IL and made an impression in their Still ILL games, each throwing harder than before their stints. Urquidy’s deep repertoire should make him a stable performer, and while I question if Walker has enough in his changeup/slider/curveball to constantly provide dividends, he’s well worth the roster spot.

 

• Dylan Cease gets a sizeable bump, large enough to become the featured pitcher of the week. We’ve seen his slider take shape over the last month, but his fastball has recently been the next to develop, evidenced by his last outing against the Orioles. While he’s still outside the top 50 as we don’t quite know if his new command will disappear, he certainly deserves your attention and selected off the wire.
• We may not see a whole lot more of him this season – he is 41, after all – but to deny Rich Hill starts right now would be foolish. He’s managing to get it done with sub 90 mph velocity and a massive hook and let’s all ride this for as long as it lasts.

 

• It’s great seeing Stephen Strasburg back in action, but sadly his fastball velocity was the same in his second start as it was in his first – sitting 91.8 mph. That’s two ticks lower than 2019 and makes me concerned he’ll be laboring a decent amount on the hill through the season.
• I’m liking what I’ve seen from Frankie Montas lately as he’s beginning to get whiffs on his splitter again. Paired with fastballs that constantly churn outs, he could ascend the ranks quickly.

 

• I made a mini-tier for Dylan Bundy and Luis Castillo. These ranks are not universal, sadly, and how you should treat these pitchers is highly dependent on your situation. Do you have room to stash a player for the future or would you rather get production now? I’ve placed the secure “win now” players above these two, while the more disposable arms are underneath. It’s your call if you’d like to hold Bundy or Castillo over the pitchers below.

 

• Tier 10 is filled with your waiver-wire adds and short-term considerations. It leads off with Dallas Keuchel, who has a lovely schedule ahead and shouldn’t be ignored.
• Wade Miley returned from the IL and displayed his best cutter of the season (okay, save for the no-hitter) and can now be considered as an excellent Toby for teams.

 

• Tarik Skubal has taken a step forward with his secondaries, mainly his slider that has earned a good amount of whiffs as of late. I’m still a little skeptical at how long this strong streak will last, but he’s worth the add if he’s still out there.
• Justin Dunn is also going through his development and has shown signs of excellence with a fastball now sitting 94+ mph & two breakers that each can be his whiff pitch on a given night. Keep your eye on him.

 

• Returning to The List is Jake Odorizzi, who came back to little fanfare for the Astros. He’d be higher on the ranks if his fastball velocity was closer to his 2019 self, though pitching for Houston should help him earn Wins as he stabilizes through the season.
• Logan Webb also returned from the IL and dazzled with his slider to dominate the Dodgers. It’s hard not to be intrigued as he packs two strong secondaries now, each capable of debilitating an offense. It could just be a spark, but he’s a fun addition for your teams.

 

• Can Chris Paddack get back to his 2019 self? I hope so, though he’s still not commanding his fastball quite as well as the good ole days. It’s getting tougher and tougher to trust his return and if he’s still on your rosters, you should consider what’s available.
• Now that his schedule is improving, it’s time to reconsider Anthony DeSclafani again. He’s not your guy to deal with tough teams, but he can take advantage of solid matchups.

 

• Marco Gonzales is returning from the IL and hopefully he can be the stable ratio performer he was in 2020. While I don’t expect the ace-like ERA and WHIP, he could be a strong Toby through the end.
• Ignoring the rough news today that Sixto Sanchez’s recovery has been shut down with shoulder soreness, Elieser Hernandez should make Marlins fans excited as he’s set to return this week. I have my doubts that he packs enough punch in his repertoire outside of his slider, but he’s worth the spec add as you stash him for his Still ILL outing.

 

• Patrick Corbin and Jameson Taillon have each been disappointments and make for a tough decision as fantasy managers. Taillon should get his feet under him at some point this season, which will be a product of his curveball and slider coming together. Corbin had his velocity and slider whiffs back a few starts ago, but lost it and now has a tough schedule. If there’s a better option on the wire, you shouldn’t hesitate to make the swap.

 

• Don’t be alarmed by the “-7” associated with Spencer Turnbull in tier 11 – that’s more of plenty of names shooting up The List than a new assessment of his four-seamer/slider approach, which, well, still isn’t as consistent as we want it to be.
• Andrew Heaney is the biggest faller in this tier, simply due to his Cherry Bomb nature. It evens out through the year, returning a middling ERA and WHIP with a solid amount of strikeouts, but it’s a tough pill to swallow.

 

• JT Brubaker has made it clear that he’s a Toby and not much else. That works for us, it just means he lands in the 70s now, instead of the 50s/60s. Remember, we still like him as he was out of the Top 100 for much of last year.
• Returning to The List is Triston McKenzie, who startled us with ten strikeouts over the weekend + a solid performance against the Tigers last week. I still question is his command is where we need it to be and the juice may not be worth the squeeze.

 

• I really hope Eduardo Rodriguez finds his fastball/changeup combo once again, but we’ve been waiting for the pair to sync up for a month now.
• The same goes for Matthew Boyd and his slider, which simply hasn’t been around since 2019. His changeup is excellent, though, and when Boyd does get the pitch back, he could catapult up the ranks. It’s more of an “if” than a “when”, and that pushes him down to #82.

 

• Luis Garcia leads off the long and final tier as I have two concerns moving forward: his tough schedule & likely few starts ahead as Lance McCullers returns and Cristian Javier likely forces himself back into the rotation. It’s too bad, I think Garcia is a fine play against middling or worse lineups.
• It’s also not a great moment for James Kaprielian as he falls a whopping 27 points. Thing is, he was only ranked highly last week because he had two starts against Seattle and I believe he could perform in both. He went 1-for-2, could get replaced in the rotation by Jesus Luzardo any moment now, and his fantasy value is now dwindling.

 

• It’s a pretty clear situation for Dane Dunning right now: treat him like a Toby and avoid the strong opponents. Sadly, the only team in his division we’re comfortable starting him against are the Mariners at this point (it’s not easy being a Rangers pitcher).
• Garrett Richards is going through a moment where his fastball has improved, but he’s lost his slider in the process. It’s been a long time waiting and while he could get it back as soon as his next start, it’s in your best interest to wait until we see it again.

 

• The Fratty Pirate – aka Ryan Yarbrough – returns as he’s proven to be a solid ratio arm who can earn Wins when he has an opener. For once, let’s hope he doesn’t properly start in the near future.
• Joining Yarbrough this week are three others at the end: Ryan Weathers, Joe Ross, and Ross Stripling. Weathers could be slowly getting more innings and he continues to start, Ross just earned himself a Golden Goal over the weekend, and Stripling has slightly adjusted mechanics that propelled a successful start. There could be something here with all three.

 

 

All right, now that the notes are at the top and you understand where I’m coming from, let’s get to The List:

Rank	Pitcher	Badges	Change
1	Jacob deGromT1	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-
2	Gerrit Cole T2	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
3	Yu Darvish	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
4	Trevor Bauer	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
5	Shane Bieber	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
6	Max Scherzer	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
7	Brandon Woodruff	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-
8	Walker Buehler	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-
9	Clayton Kershaw	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
10	Corbin Burnes	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-
11	Aaron Nola T3	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
12	Zack Wheeler	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
13	Lance Lynn	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
14	Lucas Giolito	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+7
15	Jack Flaherty	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-3
16	Tyler Glasnow	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	-1
17	Hyun Jin Ryu	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
18	Kevin Gausman	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-
19	Julio Urías T4	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-2
20	John Means	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
21	Max Fried	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
22	Trevor Rogers	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside	-
23	Carlos Rodón	Ace Potential Quality Starts	+2
24	Sandy Alcantara	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
25	Joe Musgrove T5	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-1
26	Freddy Peralta	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+6
27	Pablo López	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+3
28	Ian Anderson	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	-
29	Sonny Gray	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	-
30	Alex Wood	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	+5
31	Robbie Ray T6	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	-
32	Aaron Civale	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+2
33	Blake Snell	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	-7
34	Tyler Mahle	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside	+2
35	Charlie Morton	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
36	José Berríos	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+4
37	Marcus Stroman	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+7
38	Kyle Hendricks	Ace Potential Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-
39	Shane McClanahan	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Stash Option	+9
40	Chris Bassitt T7	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+12
41	Zack Greinke	Ace Potential Quality Starts	+5
42	Sean Manaea	Injury Risk Toby Ratio Focused	+18
43	Framber Valdez	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+UR
44	Yusei Kikuchi	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+5
45	Domingo Germán	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-
46	Frankie Montas T8	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	+7
47	Alek Manoah	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+UR
48	José Urquidy	Injury Risk Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	+UR
49	Rich Hill	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+13
50	Stephen Strasburg	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips	-8
51	Dylan Cease	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	+14
52	Adbert Alzolay	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+7
53	Taijuan Walker	Strikeout Upside Toby	+UR
54	Zach Eflin	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
55	Shohei Ohtani	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+6
56	Michael Pineda	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+15
57	Dylan Bundy T9	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Stash Option	-14
58	Luis Castillo	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Stash Option	-7
59	Dallas Keuchel T10	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+5
60	Jordan Montgomery	Strikeout Upside Toby Ratio Focused	-2
61	Wade Miley	Injury Risk Toby Ratio Focused	+UR
62	Tarik Skubal	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Streaming Option Stash Option	+14
63	Anthony DeSclafani	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+9
64	Jameson Taillon	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-14
65	Chris Paddack	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question	-8
66	Patrick Corbin	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside	-25
67	Jake Odorizzi	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips	+UR
68	Logan Webb	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	+UR
69	Madison Bumgarner	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	-13
70	Justin Dunn	Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	+5
71	Elieser Hernández	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question	+UR
72	Marco Gonzales	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+UR
73	Nathan Eovaldi T11	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+8
74	Andrew Heaney	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-19
75	Spencer Turnbull	Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	-7
76	JT Brubaker	Toby Ratio Focused	-10
77	Steven Matz	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	+5
78	Casey Mize	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option Stash Option	+6
79	Triston McKenzie	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+UR
80	Eduardo Rodriguez	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	-13
81	Griffin Canning	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-3
82	Matthew Boyd	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-12
83	Luis García T12	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	-4
84	Adam Wainwright	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-10
85	Brady Singer	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	-12
86	Ryan Yarbrough	Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	+UR
87	Germán Márquez	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-2
88	Alex Cobb	Streaming Option	+6
89	Mike Minor	Streaming Option	+7
90	Tyler Anderson	Toby Streaming Option	+2
91	Logan Gilbert	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option Stash Option	-2
92	Johnny Cueto	Streaming Option	+5
93	David Peterson	Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	-6
94	Dane Dunning	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-14
95	Garrett Richards	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-18
96	James Kaprielian	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	-27
97	Cody Poteet	Streaming Option	-4
98	Ryan Weathers	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question	+UR
99	Joe Ross	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
100	Ross Stripling	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR

Photo by John Cordes/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)