After weeks of poring through data once the season ended, I’ve finally finished my “Way Too Early Closer Rankings” for next year. Many of the stats I mention in the notes are part of the data used to develop these preliminary rankings, amongst other metrics and considerations. It’s way too early to start speculating on roles for the non-locked-in closer candidates, of which there are only about 10, maybe 12 at the moment.
One metric that I’ve been tinkering with for a few seasons now is Z-Contact (Zone Contact) – O-Swing (Chase Rate), or Z-O%. It’s nothing groundbreaking but I think this number can be another indicator of just how dominant a pitcher’s stuff is. Z-Contact (Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone) represents how hard it is to hit this pitcher even when he’s in the strike zone and O-Swing (Swings at pitches outside the zone / pitches outside the zone) represents just how filthy his stuff is to get hitters to chase outside the strike zone.
Since Z-O rate (Z-O%) is new to my articles, here is a quick guide as to how the numbers below actually stack up:
League average Z-O rate was 53.2% in 2024
Z-O rate under 40% = Top ~5% (ELITE)
Z-O rate of 45% or lower = Top ~12.5% (Great)
Z-O rate of 50% or lower = Top ~33% (Above Average)
Z-O rate of 55% or lower = Top ~60% (Average)
Z-O rate of 55% or higher = Bottom ~40% (Below Average)
Z-O rate over 60% = Bottom ~15% (Needs Improvement)
For me, especially with closers, bat-missing ability is the number one thing I look at when it comes to what my trust level will be with that reliever. Anytime a ball is put in play, you run the risk of allowing a runner to reach base, and as a closer your job is to limit that risk. Emmanuel Clase may be the lone exception here but then again, his postseason wasn’t exactly smooth. Either way, there’s nothing to argue here: missing bats is ALWAYS good (as long as you aren’t walking hitters 15% of the time).
Notes
Tier 1
1. Emmanuel Clase (CLE) – Clase is coming off a historic year that saw him finish the season with a ridiculous 0.61 ERA (2.81 xFIP), 0.66 WHIP, and 47 saves. The only real complaint we can make about Clase is his lack of strikeouts, but then you see his 146 Stuff+, 5.63 PLV (first in baseball), and 36.8% Chase rate, it demonstrates that he CAN be amongst the strikeout leaderboards, he just doesn’t need to be in order to dominate (kind of like how Ichiro could have hit more home runs).
His cutter’s induced vertical break (iVB, 10.7″), total break (11.5″), and height-adjusted vertical attack angle (HAVAA, 0.8°) are all 90th percentile or better, and oh yeah, he averages 99.5 MPH with it, which all considered makes Clase’s cutter one of the most dominant pitches in baseball. His 29.7% hard-hit, 57.8% ground-ball, and 3.7% walk rates give him an exceptionally high floor and make Clase maybe the only closer I am willing to declare as a safe draft pick in 2025.
2. Devin Williams (MIL) – While Clase lacks in strikeouts, Williams excels as his 43.2% strikeout rate in 2024 would have been the best in baseball if he qualified. However, that bat-missing ability did come with a 12.5% walk rate, which is actually pretty consistent for Williams, who has finished with a walk rate in the 12% range every year since 2021. His “Airbender” changeup remains one of the best pitches in the game with 19.7″ induced horizontal break (iHB) and somehow a 2720 rpm spin rate, so it constantly gets whiffs. Williams gets elite extension (7.3′) and the extreme movement from his changeup really keeps hitters off balance, leading to great hard-hit metrics as well (32.4% hard-hit rate).
Williams also finished with an impressive 2.62 xFIP and 2.31 SIERA this past season, both of which would have been top 10 amongst relievers. Williams did throw his changeup less this year, (down 13%) and ideally, I’d prefer him around a 50/50 split with his fastball and changeup (similar to Edwin Díaz with his fastball and slider) but thats nitpicking. There’s more volatility here than Clase (especially if traded), but I don’t think it would surprise anyone if Williams finished as the top closer given his upside.
3. Félix Bautista (BAL) – Bautista missed all of 2024 as he rehabbed from Tommy John, but he is expected to be ready for spring training, and let’s quickly just remember his otherwordly 2023. Bautista led all relievers with a 46.4% strikeout rate and was second in swinging-strike rate with a 22.7% mark. When healthy, he is just a bat-missing machine as his fastball sits at 99.5 MPH with 19.9 iVB while his splitter holds a 60.2% whiff rate.
While Bautista arguably has the best stuff of any closer, he will be coming off a major surgery and he already had some command issues to begin with so a slow start wouldn’t be shocking to see in 2025. That said, there really is no ceiling with him, so just like with Williams (and anyone in this tier really), I would not be shocked if Bautista finishes the year as the top fantasy closer.
4. Josh Hader (HOU) – Hader had a bit of a tumultuous first season in Houston as he finished with a 3.80 ERA on the year but I’m optimistic that number will improve in 2025. The stuff is still electric and continues to fool hitters at an elite rate with a 31.9% Z-O rate, 22% swinging-strike rate, and 5.49 PLV. His “sinker” isn’t overpowering velocity-wise but it gets elite iVB (18.7″) and HAVAA (1.5°) which his slider (60.2% whiff rate) can play off of nicely.
Hader has never been one to suppress hard contact at a high level (10.2% barrel rate) and he doesn’t do a great job keeping the ball on the ground (29.9% ground-ball rate) so his move to Minute Maid Park will likely result in seasons closer to the 3.80 ERA than his 1.28 mark in 2023. With some better luck next year, that ERA should easily be lowered and we aren’t complaining about the WHIP or strikeouts.
5. Edwin Díaz (NYM) – Díaz finished the year with “just” a 38.9% strikeout rate, which is the second lowest strikeout rate for him since 2017, although his 38.9% strikeout rate was the fifth highest amongst relievers this season. That is just how good Díaz has been throughout his career and while he did get off to a slow start as he was returning from missing all of the 2023 season, he was able to pick things up in the second half. Díaz held a 44.3% strikeout rate (35% K-BB rate) in the second half, best amongst closers, along with a 1.82 SIERA that trailed only Jhoan Durans 1.74.
Díaz’s fastball has a fantastic 1.9° HAVAA, which in turn normally leads to high whiff rates on his slider, however, his whiff rate was down this season as he struggled with some diminished velocity early on. The velocity did come back in the second half though, and I think it’s safe to say Díaz is primed to be a top-five closer once again next season in what could be a contract year for himself.
Tier 2
6. Mason Miller (A’s) – Miller finished his rookie season with a 1.91 SIERA, 33.3% strikeout-to-walk ratio, and 21% swinging-strike rate which were all top three among qualified relievers. Miller was much better in the first half however as he posted a 38.5% CSW (29.6% 2nd half), 1.80 xFIP (2.86 2nd half), and a 46.7% strikeout rate (34.3% 2nd-half strikeout rate). Those obviously aren’t terrible numbers in the second half, but it is a trend going the wrong way, and for Miller to provide top-five value, he’ll likely need those first-half numbers as the A’s may make it hard for him to break the 30 save mark.
We’re also still a little unsure of what Miller’s role will be moving forward, but I’d imagine we see him in the closer role for at least one more season perhaps before moving into the rotation. No matter the role, we’d still be lucky to have Miller pitching on our fantasy teams as his upside remains through the roof.
7. Andrés Muñoz (SEA) – Muñoz put together another great season, his first as Mariners closer, and while he still hasn’t quite hit that ceiling we once pictured, he’s still one of the best relievers around. He remained a bat-missing machine in 2024 with a 35.3% CSW, which now makes it three straight seasons for Muñoz with a CSW over 35%. He was even better in the second half of the season, finishing with a 38.8% strikeout rate, and 2.44 xFIP. Muñoz finished with a 56% ground-ball rate this season too, so despite some hard-hit concerns, he’s at least able to keep the ball on the ground the majority of the time.
While the slider is the dominant pitch here, it finished with a 48.5% whiff rate this year (three seasons in a row now at 48%+), the fastball ain’t too shabby either averaging 98.4 MPH with a 1.6° HAVAA. With Scott Servais out as manager, perhaps Muñoz will finally be able to run free as he did pick up all of the saves for the Mariners after Servais was fired (Troy Taylor had one during the last series of the year with Muñoz shut down).
8. Ryan Helsley (STL) – Helsley finished the season as the league leader in saves with 49, but that number means nothing as far as his 2025 season is concerned. We should still be interested in Helsley since he’s coming off a season where he posted a 19.1% swinging-strike rate, and led all relievers with a 147 Stuff+. A big reason for his success this past year can be attributed to a pitch usage change, as he went from 56.2% fastball and 36.7% slider to 48.3% slider (+11.6%) and 45.5% fastball (-10.7).
The slider continues to be Helsley’s best offering with a 51% whiff rate last year, but the fastball holds its own too as he averages 99.6 MPH with 17″ of iVB on it. Helsley does give up some loud contact (39.6% ICR%) and holds a low groundball rate (37.2%) so it wouldn’t be shocking to see his home-run rate jump closer to his 2021-22 numbers, but even still, Helsley should bring enough value to warrant being one of the top 10 relievers off the board.
9. Jhoan Duran (MIN) – Duran was in a similar situation as Muñoz, as he too shared the closer role with others and as a result, wound up south of 25 saves this season. That doesn’t mean he wasn’t (mostly) dominant, as Duran finished the year with a 2.67 xFIP and 132 Stuff+ while finishing the second half especially strong as well (30% K-BB rate). The 3.64 ERA and 1.16 WHIP are career highs for Duran but we can chalk a lot of that up to bad luck as he still did a fantastic job limiting hard contact (30.5% ICR%) and continues to be a groundball machine (61.2%) when not missing bats.
The fastball velo came down to 100.5 MPH this year, which is obviously an absurd statement, but even despite the velo dip, Duran still finished with a 36.1% whiff rate on the pitch, which was third best amongst relievers behind Edwin Díaz and Mason Miller. Rocco Baldelli is still at the helm in Minnesota, so Duran’s usage next season could continue to be shaky, but the Twins should really consider using him strictly as the closer, as the numbers prove he’s much more reliable in save situations.
10. Raisel Iglesias (ATL) – The elder statesman of the top 10, Iglesias turned in the best season of his career at age 34 as he finished with a 1.95 ERA and 0.74 WHIP, and even held a 35.1 innings pitched scoreless streak from mid-June to mid-September. A big reason for that scoreless streak was the return of his prime fastball velocity in the second half, which led to a 33.6% CSW over the past two months.
The overall numbers for the season were impressive across the board, with a 2.78 pCRA (Predictive Classified Run Average), and 39.4% Z-O rate as standouts, Iglesias showed he isn’t slowing down anytime soon. With 4 quality offerings, Iglesias should be able to weather another downtick in velocity as he ages, just as he did at the beginning of this past season.
Tier 3
11. Tanner Scott (FA) – Scott is hitting free agency at the right time as he is coming off one of his best seasons to date as he finished with a 1.75 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, and his arsenal graded out as one of the best in baseball with a 145 Stuff+ and 5.46 PLV (both top 10). These numbers come after a rough 8-10 game stretch to open up the season, but from about late April on, he was lights out, finishing with a 38.3% Z-O rate over his last 59 innings pitch.
Scott’s best pitch is his fastball, which comes in from the left side at 97 MPH with a 1.9° HAVAA, and 2540 rpm spin rate, so it’s no surprise to see the usage up 12% this year. The slider is still a solid secondary, and ideally, we’d probably want him to have a 50/50 split between the two (closer to last season). Scott continues to do a great job limiting hard contact as well (27.5 Hard Hit%, 84.3 Avg. Exit Velo) and I’d expect him to get the biggest contract of any reliever this offseason, but that doesn’t guarantee him the closer role.
12. Kirby Yates (FA) – Yates turned back the clock this year and put together his best season since 2019 with a 1.17 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. This season also saw Yates with his best stuff since 2019 as he finished with a 36% strikeout and 36.5% Z-O rate, plus a 2.51 pCRA. Yates was consistent all year round, allowing no more than three runs in a single month.
While the strikeout rate was great, his 24.8% ICR% was truly elite, and a number so low I just can’t see him flirting with it ever again. Yates will also be 38 to start next season and while he should get a chance to close out games again, it’s certainly not a guarantee, especially if he prefers to sign with a contender.
13. A.J. Puk (AZ) – After making four starts at the beginning of the season in which he allowed 14 earned runs over 13.2 innings, Puk moved back into a bullpen role in May and only got better as the season went on. Over 57.2 innings as a reliever, Puk finished with a 1.72 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 2.12 pCRA, and 30% K-BB rate. He was the best reliever in baseball over the second half of the season, where he held a 1.50 SIERA, 37.6% K-BB, and 36.7% CSW rate.
At 6’7″ with a 7.1′ extension, Puk’s fastball (which averaged 96.3 MPH as an reliever) plays up big time, and the slider had a ton of success too with a 47.8% whiff rate. I have more faith in him than the other options currently in the Diamondbacks bullpen for next year, but it’s certainly no guarantee Puk will open the year as the closer. He did end the season as the de facto “closer” and if he were able to secure the role before opening day, he would probably move into the top 10.
14. Luke Weaver (NYY) – Weaver made 25 starts in 2023, finishing with a 6.40 ERA and 1.58 WHIP for three different teams but the Yankees still saw something they liked and kept him around this season, transitioning to a bullpen role full-time where he went on to thrive. His stuff really played up out of the pen, as he finished with a 38.7% Z-O for the season, and he got better as the year went on, posting 37.5% strikeout and 17.8% swinging-strike rates in the second half.
Working out of the bullpen, Weaver’s fastball was up 1.7 MPH this season to 95.7 MPH and also gained 2.6″ iVB (up to 18.2″). Weaver also changed up his pitch mix, dropping the curve and slider, while upping his changeup usage and mixing in a cutter. It’s a recipe for success for Weaver as a reliever, and he very well could continue to be the Yankees’ closer heading into next year as the team may not want to spend much on the bullpen if they want to keep Juan Soto.
15. Ryan Walker (SF) – Walker was the Giants’ best reliever from start to finish this season, and showed some upside I frankly didn’t expect to see from him. Walker ended the year as the team’s closer, finishing with a 1.94 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 2.45 SIERA, and 34.4% CSW. We’ve talked about a lot of plus fastballs so far, but Walker’s best offering is his slider, which is truly elite with 16″ of total break, a 38% whiff rate, and a 5.47 PLV.
The sinker is more or less fine, as it does provide plenty of groundballs and overall Walker does a great job suppressing hard contact (30.2% hard-hit rate). What his role will be next March remains to be seen, as Camilo Doval and his 89 saves over the past three seasons are still around for now (and I’m definitely not giving up on him yet), but a trade could help clear things up for Walker, Doval, and the Giants.
16. Michael Kopech (LAD) – Similar to Weaver, Kopech made the transition to a reliever this season and broke out as a high-leverage late-inning arm, eventually being dealt to the Dodgers where he quickly took over as the team’s closer. Kopech’s stuff played up as a reliever, as showed by his 40.9% Z-O rate, 142 Stuff+, and 5.40 PLV. The Dodgers were able to get even more consistency out of Kopech, as he finished with a 0.79 WHIP in the second half. The biggest change in the arsenal came with his fastball, which now averages 98.7 MPH (up 3.5 MPH), with 17.3″ iVB, and 2616 rpm of spin.
The cutter is a promising secondary as well (5.49 PLV, 33.3% whiff rate), which he started throwing more with the Dodgers, and hopefully, we get to see closer to 30% usage (at least) from it next season. Despite where things ended this season, there’s still no guarantee Kopech is the Dodgers opening day closer next year, as Evan Phillips will still be around and there’s even been some talk of Kopech moving into the rotation. If he is the closer, Kopech should be a great value pick in fantasy drafts.
17. Lucas Erceg (KC) – Erceg opened up the season setting up for Mason Miller before a trade mid-season landed him in the Royals closer role. Overall, it was a good season for Erceg, who finished with a 2.83 SIERA and we saw him get his walk rate down to 6.3% after finishing last year at 14.3%. The stuff got better in the second half with the Royals as well, finishing with a 27% K-BB rate, and 2.68 xFIP post All-Star break.
Erceg doesn’t have one truly elite offering, but more so keeps hitters off balance with a starter-like repertoire, featuring a good sinker and slider, as well as a promising changeup. That said he still threw more four-seamers than any other pitch this season, so I’d be interested to see what he could do if he brought the four-seam rate down closer to 20%. Despite the starter’s repertoire, I doubt we see Erceg moving into the rotation anytime soon, as he’s clearly needed in this bullpen at the moment and he should open the season as the closer barring a big free agent splash or trade.
18. Jeff Hoffman (FA) – Hoffman was able to back up last season’s surprise success with a true breakout campaign that saw him finish the year with a 0.96 WHIP, 27.6% K-BB rate, 2.39 SIERA, and 18.4% swinging-strike rate. Hoffman is a spin rate master, finishing in the top 96th percentile in both slider and fastball spin, with the fastball getting elite arm side run, and the slider racking up a ton of whiffs (44.7%). ‘
What next season has in store for Hoffman is up in the air, but he should get a contract similar to if not better than what Robert Stephenson received last season. The landing spot will determine what Hoffman’s role will be, but I’d lean toward him signing with a team that has an established closer to be their top setup/high-leverage reliever. Still, the chance that Hoffman does land a closer role next season is too enticing to pass up in the top 20.
19. Ben Joyce (LAA) – It was only 32.2 innings but I think we should be happy with how Joyce finished this season, with a 2.20 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 15% swinging-strike rate, and 46.5% Z-O, mostly due to his ability to limit contact in the zone (75%). Obviously with Joyce the big weapon is his fastball velocity (102.1 MPH on average) but it also held a 1.9° HAVAA, so the pitch can be quite deceptive as well. He still needs to find a secondary he can trust, but his high spin slider feels pretty close to becoming a great secondary with some tweaks maybe (and will the splinker return?).
As long as he is healthy, Joyce should have a very sturdy floor with his fastball and high ground-ball rate (62.6%) and as of now, there is no competition for him to be the Angels closer. I think there’s still some untapped potential here and will be happy to take a chance on Joyce as my #2 closer in leagues next year, as long as they are not looking to add a veteran closer to the mix.
20. Robert Suarez (SD) – Despite a rocky September, Suarez still finished the postseason as the Padres closer and should be back in the role to begin next year. Even at 33 years old, the stuff has not lost a beat, as he finished the season with a 137 Stuff+, and 5.30 PLV, thanks in large part to his fastball, which he happens to throw a whopping 87% of the time. It’s a good offering too, so I don’t blame him for it, as it averaged 99 MPH this season with 17.2″ iVB. Will he be able to sustain that type of usage and have success moving forward though?
The changeup has been good for him in the past, but also, please develop the cutter or maybe some type of slider? As much as I am worried about him being a one-pitch pitcher, this is still a potential great spot for him as a closer, with a good lineup, solid rotation, and great bullpen arms in front of him in Jason Adam and Jeremiah Estrada. That last part also means if Suarez struggles out of the gate, he has Adam and Estrada right behind him as potential fallback closer options.
Tier 4
21. Porter Hodge (CHC) – Hodge finished his impressive rookie season with nine saves, and wound up with some great numbers across the board: a 1.88 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 2.95 pCRA, 31.7% strikeout rate, 31.9% CSW, and 30.4% ICR%. Even with all those positive numbers, I have some long-term concerns here. He finished with a 56% Z-O rate and 5.10 PLV, both underwhelming and largely due to his below-average (at best) fastball.
The slider is great, but relying on a closer with a bad fastball is not exactly something I want to invest heavily in. The other concern here would be his role for next season. While he should be the favorite for saves as of now, I would be shocked if the Cubs didn’t bring in a veteran with closer experience who could open the season in the role.
22. Clay Holmes (FA) – Holmes was a surprising All-Star selection this season, not necessarily because he was bad in the first half, but there were some relievers left off the roster who actually dominated in the first half (reminder that Craig Kimbrel was really good until being snubbed). For the season, Holmes finished with a 3.01 xFIP, 33.5% CSW, and 135 Stuff+, showing that he can still be a very effective and above-average reliever.
Although those numbers did come with a 1.30 WHIP, 25.1% strikeout rate, and 51.7% Z-O rate, showing that his swing and miss ability isn’t quite what it once was. However the sweeper is still promising and the sinker helped lead him to a ridiculous 67.6% ground-ball rate, so teams could still be looking at him as a potential closer even though he is really better suited in a set-up/high-leverage type role.
23. David Bednar (PIT) – Bednar could just not get things going this season, as every time it looked like he may be turning a corner, he’d go prove us otherwise with a dud (or series of duds). The strikeouts went way down and he even struggled with his command (11.5% K-BB rate) and unfortunately, a 4.87 xFIP doesn’t exactly disprove his 5.77 ERA was a fluke. The curveball really let him down this year, finishing with a 4.72 PLV and 6.2% swinging-strike rate, and he’ll need to improve on that to have more success against right-handed hitters.
Overall though, I’m certainly not counting out a comeback season from Bednar next year as the stuff, for the most part, appears to still be there as he was able to finish with solid 44.1% Z-O and 14.1% swinging-strike rates while having a 128 Stuff+. If the injuries he was dealing with are truly behind him (oblique/back), the fastball and splitter can still be very good, and I also can’t see the Pirates spending a lot of money on a potential closer this offseason, so I’m willing to buy back in on Bednar as long as the cost reflects his 2024 struggles.
24. Kenley Jansen (FA) – Jansen was mostly solid across the board for fantasy purposes this year, finishing with a 1.06 WHIP, 28.4% strikeout rate, and 31.1% CSW as he still has the ability to miss bats at an above-average clip. That being said, the stuff is trending in the wrong direction, with a 53.7% Z-O rate, and 5.01 PLV, plus rough ERA indicators as shown by a 4.04 xFIP, and 4.65 pCRA.
The cutter is still a very good pitch though and he surely will want to close next year as he tries to surpass Lee Smith for third most saves all-time. If he is able to land in a pitcher-friendly park he should be alright, but I don’t think he is someone you want to target in the top 10-12 rounds anymore.
25. Aroldis Chapman (FA) – Chapman finished 2024 with his highest save total since 2021 (14) and while the ERA (3.79) and WHIP (1.35) aren’t exactly enticing, the stuff is still missing bats at a high rate with a 37.1% strikeout rate, 33% CSW, and 5.19 PLV. Chapman was even more dominant in the second half after taking over as closer, finishing with a 32.7% K-BB rate and 1.84 xFIP post-All-Star break.
Even at 36 years old, the stuff is showing no signs of decline yet (fastball/sinker still sitting 98-100 MPH), and I’m sure he could find a chance to close somewhere if he wants it, but he may get more suitors in the form of “win now” clubs looking for him to join in a setup role.
26. Pete Fairbanks (TB) – What a disappointing season it was for Fairbanks who just couldn’t build off last year’s second-half momentum and take that next step forward we’ve been waiting for. Fairbanks wound up finishing 2024 with just a 23.8% strikeout, 9.8% swinging-strike, and a 60.3% Z-O rate as well as a pedestrian 3.75 SIERA. Once again, Fairbanks failed to make it past 46 innings, as he had two IL stints on the year, one of which ended his season in August.
There is some hope left here as the fastball is still good (97.3 MPH, 17.5″ iVB, 2340 rpm spin rate) but unless it gets back to 2022-23 levels (99 MPH, with almost 19″ iVB, and a 2500 rpm spin rate) we likely won’t be seeing Fairbanks as a top 10-12 closer option. There’s also a chance, maybe even a good chance knowing the Rays, Fairbanks is dealt at some point between now and next July, and mostly likely he’d be looking at some sort of setup role with his new team.
27. Jordan Romano (TOR) – Romano only appeared in 15 games this season, where he mostly struggled to the tune of a 6.59 ERA before being shut down with an elbow injury that eventually required arthroscopic surgery. In the small sample size, Romano held mostly poor numbers across the board with 14.5% K-BB, 11.6% swinging-strike, and 28.8% CSW rates, as well as a 50% ICR%, and 3.93 SIERA.
Even as things were trending in the wrong direction for Romano in 2023, he was still able to finish with a 2.90 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and 36 saves. If healthy and closing again (Jays could decide to move him), Romano could still be an RP2 target as a potential bounce-back candidate, but ideally, we’d get a chance to see him this spring first before moving him up the board.
28. Liam Hendriks (BOS) – Hendriks is one of if not the toughest closer to rank right now, as we’ve seen him be a top-five closer option not all that long ago in 2022 where he averaged 97.6 MPH on his fastball (he also gets 17.8″ iVB on the pitch) and his slider held a 67% whiff rate. He then began the 2023 season on the IL while undergoing cancer treatments, but unfortunately was only able to throw five innings that year before it was announced he would need Tommy John Surgery. It was a small sample size and clearly, his elbow was not right, but his stuff was not the same then as he was only able to to average 95.4 MPH on his fastball in those five innings.
Fast forward 12 months later with Hendriks attempting to make it back from surgery in record time, but it was pretty clear that he rushed back too quickly. In Hendriks’ last outing for Worcester this year he threw only one fastball and it was 91.6 MPH. The outing before that he threw 6 fastballs averaging 92.8 MPH, and the outing before that he threw seven fastballs averaging 94 MPH. The slider was also down to 84 MPH. Perhaps by March, he will be closer to 96 MPH and the slider will come back to life, which might be all that he needs to be effective. The Red Sox are unlikely to make a splash in the reliever market this year, so I believe they are counting on Hendriks getting back to normal and being their closer, but it feels awfully risky to put that kind of confidence into a 36-year-old with five innings pitched since 2022.
29. Alexis Díaz (CIN) – We all had our doubts about Díaz entering the 2024 season after a rough finish to his 2023. Unfortunately, we were not proven wrong here as Díaz struggled mightily for most of the year, finishing with just a 9.9% K-BB rate, and 5.06 xFIP on the season. The overall 3.99 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, plus 28 saves, isn’t exactly terrible, but it’s not what we were hoping for when drafting Díaz in the top 100 picks. Díaz was particularly bad against left-handed hitters with just a 5.3% K-BB rate, 1.56 WHIP, and 6.00 xFIP, which isn’t surprising given his fastball/slider approach from a low arm slot.
However, there may be some hope here still after all, as things were slightly improved in the second half, where he had a 13.5% swinging-strike rate and 1.00 WHIP. The stuff is not necessarily bad, he does get an elite 7.7″ extension, a 98th percentile HAVAA, and 2600+ rpm spin rates on his fastball and slider, he’s just more suited towards being a right-handed specialist. The bat-missing ability just has not been there since June of 2023 (25.5% CSW over his past 102.1 IP). If I can get him for basically free in drafts, I’d like to take a chance on Díaz, but I’m staying away inside the top 200 for now.
30. Kyle Finnegan (WAS) – For someone with 66 saves over the past two seasons, this may feel too low on the list, but unfortunately Finnegan did nothing to quell my long-term concerns this past season despite the save total and a relatively low 3.68 ERA. On the year, Finnegan held underwhelming numbers across the board, ranking in the bottom 10 in most categories considered for these rankings. His 13.3% K-BB rate, 12.3% swinging-strike rate, 27.4% CSW, 3.81 SIERA, and 42.2% ICR% are all well below average for closers. Finnegan was also worse against right-handed hitters (similar to Bednar), as he held a 9.8% K-BB rate, 1.43 WHIP, and 4.21 xFIP against righties.
He does have a 97.2 MPH fastball though with a decent 1.3° HAVAA, and this is the pitch that keeps him afloat as the splitter is probably average at best. Perhaps he can keep the luck going for a third straight year (Alex Colomé was able to from 2017 to 2020) but unless he truly develops a slider (or sweeper or cutter), I’ll be holding out on Finnegan again. There’s also a chance the Nationals move him this offseason (they should) and the odds he lands in a closer role on a team with a more pitcher-friendly ballpark are slim to none.
Tier 5
31. Edwin Uceta (TB) – Uceta was one of the biggest breakout relievers in 2023, finishing the season with a 30.8% K-BB rate, 2.10 SIERA, and 2.02 pCRA, which were all second-best amongst relievers with 40+ innings pitched. While his unique changeup, with 17.8″ iHB and a 2172 rpm spin rate, is probably his best offering, the sinker held a 2.0 HAVAA while his brand-new cutter was at 1.2 (96th percentile).
The pitch mix helped Uceta do a great job limiting hard contact with just a 3.8% barrel rate allowed and a 32.3% ICR%. With three plus pitches and great command of the zone, Uceta could certainly make a case to close out games for the Rays next season (or potentially start games?), no matter where Pete Fairbanks spends the majority of the season.
32. Orion Kerkering (PHI) – Kerkering put together a phenomenal first full season at the MLB level, finishing with a 2.36 ERA, 2.89 xFIP, 22.2% K-BB rate, and 5.38 PLV. We got a glimpse of the stuff late last season, with his 2900 rpm spin rate sweeper and 97.6 MPH fastball potentially being a wicked combo at the end of games. That duo also helped lead him to a 54.8% ground-ball rate, and there’s really no reason to think he couldn’t be the closer in Philadelphia next season.
However, I’m skeptical that happens because the Phillies will almost certainly add at least one impact reliever this offseason with Carlos Estévez and Jeff Hoffman scheduled to be free agents. This team’s win-now window is closing after all. Kerkering could easily be a top-15 closer option heading into next season if given the job, but I just can’t imagine this team not adding some legitimate competition for him at the very least.
33. Justin Martinez (AZ) – Martinez took over as the Diamondbacks closer in the second half of the season after Paul Sewald was removed from the role, with Martinez going on to finish the year with a 2.48 ERA and nine saves. He also finished with a 2.88 xFIP, 2.92 pCRA, and 5.34 PLV, as the stuff has never been in question here, as shown by his 100.2 velo fastball, 54% whiff rate splitter, and 45% whiff rate slider. He also did a great job limiting hard contact and keeping the ball on the ground with a 31.8% ICR%, and 60.1% ground-ball rate.
Paul Sewald is a free agent but A.J. Puk and Kevin Ginkel will still be stiff competition and while the sky is the limit for 23-year-old, Martinez likely needs to keep the control issues in check and be more consistent first before taking over as the long-term closer. That said, if Matinez is named the closer, he moves up at least 10-15 spots on this list.
34. Camilo Doval (SF) – Despite losing the closer role, being demoted mid-season, and finishing with a 4.88 ERA and 1.58 WHIP, 2024 shouldn’t be considered the beginning of the end for Doval whose stuff is clearly still top-notch. Doval finished with a 32.3% CSW rate, and his 99 MPH cutter still has immense potential with a 12.3″ total break, and a 1.3° HAVAA. His slider isn’t too shabby as well, finishing with a 45% whiff rate plus his 29.6% ICR% and 61.5% ground-ball rates were actually both better than Emmanuel Clase’s who has a similar pitch mix.
Still, the best-case scenario here for Doval is likely a trade, as Ryan Walker was dominant in the closer role once taking over and should be considered the favorite to open in the role next March. If Doval can land a closer role somewhere, I love the bounce-back potential here, especially at what should be a no-risk cost.
35. Evan Phillips (LAD) – Phillips also lost his closer role mid-season but overall fared much better than Doval on the year with a 3.62 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 27.6% strikeout rate. The stuff is still great, as evident by his 121 Stuff+, and 5.43 PLV, and he was still able to miss bats, finishing with a solid 31.4% CSW rate. Phillips started throwing his four-seam more often this season, and why not as it holds a 1.6° HAVAA and was actually his best whiff pitch at 35.3%.
Phillips continues to to do a great job limiting hard contact as well, finishing with just a 32.7% hard-hit rate, and 85.9 MPH average exit velo. There is an outside chance Kopech moves back into the rotation, but even if he doesn’t Phillips makes for a nice late-round dart throw who could comfortably slide back into the closer role if Kopech falters.
36. Trevor Megill (MIL) – With Devin Williams missing the first half of the season, Megill led the Brewers in saves this year with 21 total, despite not being as dominant as he was at the end of last season. Still, Megill finished with a 1.01 WHIP, 15.6% swinging-strike rate, 140 Stuff+, and 5.28 PLV, so the stuff hasn’t exactly fallen off drastically.
Megills best offering remains his 98.8 MPH fastball that has 17.2″ iVB and a 2455 rpm spin rate. The curve plays off this quite nicely, as Megill held a superb 55% whiff rate in 2024. Megill is slated to open the season as a setup man in Milwaukee but if Williams happens to get traded, Megill should be next in line for save chances and provides huge upside.
37. Jesús Tinoco (MIA) – Tinoco was a pleasant surprise for the Marlins in 2024, as he ran away with the closer role after Calvin Faucher landed on the IL in early September. For the season, Tinoco held a 0.96 WHIP, and 47.4% Z-O rate, but he was even more impressive in the second half with a 25% K-BB rate and 2.63 SIERA.
The stuff is not overpowering, but his sinker is a solid pitch that gets good movement (18″ iHB, 1.0° HAVAA), while the slider gets most of the whiffs (37.6% whiff rate). As of now, I see Tinoco as the favorite to close out games for the Marlins in 2025, but there are plenty of veteran closers out on the market the Marlins could bring in for competition.
38. Paul Sewald (FA) – Despite the down year, we can still be optimistic that the stuff hasn’t completely deteriorated as Sewald did finish with a 20% K-BB rate, 118 Stuff+, and 5.20 PLV. On the downside, Sewald had a pretty ugly 4.31 xFIP, 43.1% ICR%, 12.9% swinging-strike rate, and 26.6% ground-ball rate. Sewald did lose some velo on the fastball, down to 91.4 MPH last year, but the pitch still has an elite 1.9° HAVAA, and a 2515 rpm spin rate.
As good as the sweeper is, with the declining fastball it would be nice to see Sewald add a changeup or cutter this offseason. It’s hard to rank Sewald at this point as we have no idea what his role will be, but unless his fastball returns to form or he can add a quality third pitch, I’ll probably be out next season unless he lands in an ideal situation (Tigers, Royals, etc.).
39. Carlos Estévez (FA) – While Estévez finished the season with an impressive 2.45 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and even a 5.27 PLV, there are enough question marks under the hood to be skeptical about what’s in store for him next season. While Estévez was pretty consistent throughout, his 24.4% CSW, 23.6% strikeout rate, and 4.09 xFIP in the second half show a decline in bat-missing ability.
Estevez also allows a ton of hard contact (bottom 20 percentile in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate), and with only 32.2% ground-ball and 24.4% chase rates, he’s leaving a lot up to chance. With a lack of bat-missing ability, and the propensity to allow loud contact, I’m fully out on Estévez for next season unless he somehow winds up closing out games for say, the Tigers or Royals.
40. Jason Foley (DET) – It may be surprising to see Foley this low coming off a 3.15 ERA (4.09 SIERA), 1.18 WHIP, and 28 save season, but the fact is that Foley is still miscast as a closer and the Tigers should have some options, both in-house and outside the organization, that just make more sense. Foley is a sinkerballer who really struggles to miss bats as seen by his 18.4% strikeout, and 10.9% swinging-strike rates, but even his groundball rate took a hit this season (47.8%), down 10% from the past two seasons.
Foley is still a fine reliever in most bullpens, but he’s not someone you really want as your closer (a poor man’s Clay Holmes perhaps?). With better options in this Tigers bullpen as well as a chance the team goes out and adds a veteran closer this offseason, Foley feels like a safe avoid in early drafts this winter.
Tier 6
41. Griffin Jax (MIN) – Jax may have a locked-in closer ahead of him but that didn’t stop him from having 10 saves this season, as Jhoan Duran missed the first couple of weeks of the season with an injury. Jax was arguably the best non-closer reliever in baseball last year, finishing with a 2.32 xFIP, 36.9% CSW, and 5.58 PLV, so there’s value here even if he isn’t closing out games as he was still the 63rd-best player in standard Yahoo leagues last year despite just the 10 saves.
42. Jeremiah Estrada (SD) – The Estrada breakout happened a couple of years after it was predicted, unfortunate for the Cubs, but fortunate for the Padres who now have themselves a future closer. Estrada finished 2024 with a 37.3% strikeout rate, a 19.2% swinging-strike rate, and 2.50 pCRA as a new splitter helped him turn things around. I’m not sure Estrada gets a chance to close out games next year, but Suarez is certainly a regression candidate so I think he’s is worth a flier in deeper leagues.
43. Seranthony Domínguez (FA) – Seranthony’s $8 million club option is likely to be declined by Baltimore, making him a free agent to be. Domínguez looked good in spurts last season and finished with a 131 Stuff+, and 5.22 PLV but the day-to-day consistency was an issue. Since the stuff is still good (97.7 MPH FB velo, 1.6° HAVAA) he may have a chance to earn a closer job somewhere, but he likely won’t have a ton of teams to choose from if that’s what he is looking for.
44. Jason Adam (SD) – Adam is in a similar boat to Estrada, as he could see some saves this season if Suarez struggles but the two (Adam and Estrada) will still be up against each other for save chances in that scenario. Adam was fantastic last year, finishing with a 41.8% Z-O rate, 19.3% swinging-strike rate, and 0.86 WHIP, so whoever it would be that gets the closer role in this hypothetical would still carry immense upside.
45. Justin Slaten (BOS) – As things stand now, Slaten should be the favorite for holds in the Red Sox bullpen with Liam Hendriks as the team’s closer, but as mentioned earlier, we really don’t have any clue what we are going to get with Hendriks. Slaten finished his rookie year with an impressive 3.01 xFIP, and 5.46 PLV, and his three-pitch mix looks good enough to be closer ready. The Red Sox have made indications in the not-too-distant past that they’d like to cut payroll rather than add, so that could leave Slaten as a real possibility to be the closer next April.
46. Blake Treinen (FA) – Treinen didn’t debut this season until May, and with just five innings under his belt since 2021, it was fair to question how effective he would be upon his return. The velocity did take a hit (down two MPH) but his effectiveness certainly did not as Treinen finished the year with a 24.5% K-BB rate and 2.67 SIERA. Now a free agent, Treinen could get a chance to close out games again but he may prefer to sign with a potential contender in a setup role instead.
47. David Robertson (FA) – There’s a chance Robertson opts into his deal with the Rangers ($7 million mutual option) but he’s coming off another fantastic season and could probably net $10 mil for 2025 if he wanted to. Even at 39 years old, Robertson still dominated last year with a 24.3% K-BB rate, a 33.2% CSW rate, and 2.83 pCRA. Perhaps a team could consider Robertson and his 177 career saves as a rental closer for the first half of the season, or maybe he even returns to Texas and gets a promotion?
48. Prelander Berroa (CWS) – I have no idea who will be the White Sox closer on opening day, but if they are looking at talented in-house candidates, Berroa should be at the top of the list. It was only 18 innings, but Berroa finished the season with a 31.3% strikeout rate, a 15.5% swinging-strike rate, and a 3.39 pCRA. Similar to Justin Martinez, the swing-and-miss ability has always been there for Berroa, it’s just going to come down to being able to find the strike zone consistently (and winning the closer job of course).
49. Josh Sborz (TEX) – There aren’t a lot of candidates for the Rangers closer role currently under contract, so I suppose we can put Sborz here just in the off chance the team doesn’t bring in a veteran reliever. Sborz was hurt for most of 2024 so I don’t want to put too much stock into his performance, but we saw how dominant he can be in 2023, and he was the guy Bruce Bochy turned to close out the final game of the World Series last year. Another out-of-the-box option here would be Jon Gray, who I think could be a good reliever, but there’s no indication he won’t get a chance to be a starter again next year.
50. Chad Green (TOR) – In case the Blue Jays do decide to shop Jordan Romano this offseason, perhaps Green could open the year as the team’s closer after locking down 17 saves in Romano’s absence last year. Green wore down as the season progressed, but he still flashed good stuff early on and finished the year with a 5.29 PLV. While Green’s upside isn’t what it once was, if he is closing out games he’ll still have some value in deeper leagues.
Honorable Mentions: Hunter Harvey, Mark Leiter Jr., Andrew Nardi, Kevin Ginkel, Yimi García, Tyler Kinley, Matt Strahm, A.J. Minter, Craig Kimbrel, Tony Santillan
| Rank | Pitcher | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emmanuel ClaseT1 | +3 |
| 2 | Devin Williams | -1 |
| 3 | Félix Bautista | +UR |
| 4 | Josh Hader | +5 |
| 5 | Edwin Díaz | - |
| 6 | Mason MillerT2 | +9 |
| 7 | Andrés Muñoz | - |
| 8 | Ryan Helsley | -5 |
| 9 | Jhoan Duran | -3 |
| 10 | Raisel Iglesias | -2 |
| 11 | Tanner ScottT3 | +UR |
| 12 | Kirby Yates | -10 |
| 13 | A.J. Puk | +3 |
| 14 | Luke Weaver | -3 |
| 15 | Ryan Walker | -5 |
| 16 | Michael Kopech | -2 |
| 17 | Lucas Erceg | -4 |
| 18 | Jeff Hoffman | +UR |
| 19 | Ben Joyce | +UR |
| 20 | Robert Suarez | +3 |
| 21 | Porter HodgeT4 | -2 |
| 22 | Clay Holmes | +UR |
| 23 | David Bednar | +UR |
| 24 | Kenley Jansen | +UR |
| 25 | Aroldis Chapman | +1 |
| 26 | Pete Fairbanks | +UR |
| 27 | Jordan Romano | +UR |
| 28 | Liam Hendriks | +UR |
| 29 | Alexis Díaz | -4 |
| 30 | Kyle Finnegan | -6 |
| 31 | Edwin UcetaT5 | -13 |
| 32 | Orion Kerkering | +UR |
| 33 | Justin Martinez | +UR |
| 34 | Camilo Doval | +UR |
| 35 | Evan Phillips | +UR |
| 36 | Trevor Megill | +UR |
| 37 | Jesús Tinoco | -16 |
| 38 | Paul Sewald | +UR |
| 39 | Carlos Estévez | -22 |
| 40 | Jason Foley | -28 |
| 41 | Griffin JaxT6 | +UR |
| 42 | Jeremiah Estrada | +UR |
| 43 | Seranthony Domínguez | -21 |
| 44 | Jason Adam | +UR |
| 45 | Justin Slaten | +UR |
| 46 | Blake Treinen | +UR |
| 47 | David Robertson | +UR |
| 48 | Prelander Berroa | +UR |
| 49 | Josh Sborz | +UR |
| 50 | Chad Green | -30 |