Welcome to the inaugural edition of the 2026 two-start pitcher rankings!
Each week, I’ll break down all the projected two-start starters into four tiers: Set and Forget, Most Likely Start, Questionable, and Avoid. Set-and-Forget starters are simply that; get them in your lineup and shift your focus to other positions. The Most Likely tier includes players with a mix of skill and matchups that make them almost certainly two-start plays, but not without some elevated risk compared to the top tier. Questionable starters are those best suited for daily lineup leagues, where you can bench them against the tougher of their two opponents; they’re more situation-dependent in weekly leagues. Finally, the Avoid tier includes the pitchers who should remain on your bench or the wire.
Starting next week, I will be highlighting one Two-Start Streamer of the Week. The criteria for a streamer will be a rostered rate under 50% in Yahoo & ESPN leagues.
As a friendly reminder, the projected starters are just that, projections, and are subject to change
Set-and-Forget
- Chase Burns has electric stuff, and the only reason for concern with him is how many innings Tito will let him throw this season. Despite that, he flashed how efficient he can be in his last spring training start, striking out 7 across 5 innings.
- Kris Bubic broke out last season, and while his BB% was a little higher in spring, the K% more than makes up for it, especially when he’s facing a Twins and Brewers offense that won’t be mistaken for a Yankees/Dodgers/Phillies unit.
- Max Fried has a tough match-up against the Mariners, but he’s an ace.
- Cody Ponce returns from the KBO and has looked great this spring. He gets to ease back into MLB action against the Rockies in Toronto before going to face the White Sox.
Most Likely
- Edward Cabrera was the Cubs’ big pitching acquisition of the offseason, and his change-up and breaking pitches get a lot of whiffs. The downside with Cabrera is that he allows a lot of hard contact and hitters pull the ball in the air against him at a high clip, which can lead to more home runs allowed against the Astros and Padres.
- Parker Messick made 5 starts for the Guardians last season, and if we had a larger sample size, he would’ve been a set-and-forget pitcher. He pitches to soft contact and limits walks.
- Mick Abel has the stuff to be in the Set-and-Forget tier and can pile up the strikeouts. However, the command isn’t quite there yet, which could lead to an inflated pitch count and/or an early hook. His match-ups this week are favorable as well.
- Clay Holmes will benefit from having an infield pairing of Francisco Lindor and Marcus Semien behind him this season. While the strikeout numbers will never be extraordinary, he can go deep into games on a low pitch count thanks to his sinker, and outside of Devers, there is no proven lefty he’ll face that should scare managers.
- Kodai Senga, coming off a fully healthy season, would be a set-and-forget. His stuff should bully the rebuilding Cardinals, and he should have no issues with the Giants.
- Braxton Ashcraft was effective last season, albeit splitting time between the bullpen and rotation. While the Orioles offense should be better this year and Great American can be a launching pad at times, I’m a believer in Ashcraft until he shows me otherwise.
Questionable
- Michael Soroka was a fine pitcher last year. Lefties performed slightly better against him, and he has tough matchups this week in the Tigers (and their lefties) and the Braves.
- Brandon Pfaadt had reverse splits last season, but despite the success against him, he actually had a worse K-BB% against southpaws. Pfaadt had extreme home/road splits (2.71 FIP at home, 6.06 FIP on the road) due to a significantly different home run rate (0.37 HR/9 at home, 2.5 HR/9 on the road). Both his starts this week are in Arizona; if they weren’t, he’d be in the avoid tier.
- Jose Suarez is a reliever being forced into a starter’s role due to the Braves’ pitching injuries. He’s a fine option to consider; he won’t strike out the world, but shouldn’t give up a ton of home runs either.
- Chris Bassitt is a throw-the-kitchen-sink-at-you type of pitcher who’s looking to induce soft contact. Despite their offseason additions, I’m not sold on the Pirates offense and would start him against them in a daily league.
- Justin Verlander is still pitching in the MLB, which is a win for everyone. He’s someone I would start against the Cardinals but would be hesitant to start against a stronger team such as the Diamondbacks.
- Ryan Johnson is effective against righties thanks to his cutter and sweeper, but I have serious platoon concerns. His cutter last season had a .236 xwOBA vs. righties and a .623 vs. lefties. He shouldn’t start against a Mariners lineup featuring Cal Raleigh, Josh Naylor, and newly acquired Brendan Donovan.
- Kyle Harrison is an intriguing option, as he’s been toying with a sinker and kick-change. Facing the Rays and Royals offenses that have some question marks makes him potentially worth a flier.
- Ryan Weathers has flashed some elite velocity and incredible stuff throughout his career. Despite that, he manages to allow a lot of hard contact, and I’d like to see him pitch a few regular-season games before trusting him against the Mariners. He’s a daily league play for me this week against the Marlins.
- Taijuan Walker is a back-of-the-rotation pitcher who arguably has the most favorable matchup of any two-week starters this week. The only thing he could’ve asked for was pitching against the Rockies at home rather than Coors. He’s worth the start against the Nationals and is a toss-up for his second start due to the lack of upside and the Coors effect.
- Emerson Hancock was much more effective against righties last season, so he’s worth a start against the Angels. However, if that start comes at the price of starting him against the Yankees and all their lefties, it’s not worth it.
- Adrian Houser is another guy who won’t wow you with his strikeouts. He’s a command pitcher who can get the job done. This spring gave us no reason to believe he’s lost his command, and he’s someone to consider in deeper leagues.
- Landen Roupp is the inverse of his teammate, in that he has better stuff but worse command. He’s coming off a spring with a K% of 27.4% and has higher upside than a lot of pitchers in this tier.
- Jack Leiter is similar to Roupp, where he has good stuff but still struggles with his command. The volatility of Leiter makes it tough to be confident in him, but I would trust him against the Reds this week.
Avoid
- Aaron Civale struggled with the long ball this spring (four homers in his first two starts) and pitches in Sacramento against the Astros and the Braves without the stuff to confidently navigate that lineup multiple times.
- Bryce Elder struggled with walks when facing lefties last season (9.6 BB%), and he’ll get the pleasure of facing two lineups driven by lefty hitters. The upside isn’t worth the risk in either start.
- Tomoyuki Sugano faces two potential top-five offenses in the sport, with one of those starting at Coors.
- Davis Martin is still a project and lacks the swing-and-miss ability to be confident in until he proves otherwise.
- Lance McCullers Jr. had an awful 14.2% walk rate last season, and he didn’t do much this spring to alleviate those concerns (12.5%). Add to the fact that his K% plummeted to 15.6% this spring for a K-BB% of 3.1%, and that is more than enough for me to pass on starting him.
- Roki Sasaki is going to start games for the Dodgers, even though he has not looked like a starter all spring. The command is all over the place, and if he’s not throwing strikes, hitters can lay off his splitter.
- Chris Paddack will be a good case study this season on how the Marlins will adapt their new pitching philosophies to veterans. He’s coming off the lowest K% of his career, and I’d like to see him pitch a few times before considering him against weaker offenses.
- Kyle Leahy has only started one game in his career. The upside is there with strikeout potential, but he also struggled with the long ball this spring. He’s another wait-and-see pitcher.
- Miles Mikolas faces two strong lineups this week. He’s not a bad pitcher, the matchups just scare me away.
Image created by Doug Carlin
