Welcome to the third edition of the 2026 two-start pitcher rankings!
Each week, I’ll break down all the projected two-start starters into four tiers: Set and Forget, Most Likely Start, Questionable, and Avoid. Set-and-Forget starters are simply that; get them in your lineup and shift your focus to other positions. The Most Likely tier includes players with a mix of skill and matchups that make them almost certainly two-start plays, but not without some elevated risk compared to the top tier. Questionable starters are those best suited for daily lineup leagues, where you can bench them against the tougher of their two opponents; they’re more situation-dependent in weekly leagues. Finally, the Avoid tier includes the pitchers who should remain on your bench or the wire.
I will also be highlighting one Two-Start Streamer of the Week. The criteria for a streamer will be a rostered rate under 50% in Yahoo & ESPN leagues. The streamer of the week for this upcoming week is Jack Kochanowicz, and he will have (STOW) next to his name.
As a friendly reminder, the projected starters are just that, projections, and are subject to change
Set-And-Forget
- Seth Lugo has been dealing this season, pitching to a 1.48 ERA and 0.99 WHIP while averaging over 6 IP a start. Keep rolling him out.
- Nolan McLean was officially coronated this week as an Ace, and his first two starts are prime matchups as he takes on the Twins and Rockies at home.
- Emerson Hancock has been quite the surprise this season and has been massive for anyone who was able to scoop him or had the guts to draft him. Three quality starts in 4 games, with a 0.76 WHIP and ridiculous 24.7% K-BB to start the season.
- Dylan Cease has a ridiculous 19% SwStr% and 36.0% K% this season. The pitch count is all the way built up as he threw 106 pitches in his last outing against the Brewers.
Most-Likely
- Kyle Bradish still has good breaking stuff, and his fastball has the highest PLV (5.25) of his career so far this season. His expected stats (3.22 FIP, 3.80 xERA, 3.81 xFIP) are much better than his 5.49 ERA, indicating he’s been hurt by some poor luck. He’ll face two bottom-10 offenses per wRC+ this week, making him a strong option for your lineup this week.
- Sonny Gray has had two strong starts against the Brewers and Padres, but two bad starts against the Reds and Twins. The chase rate, whiff rate, and K rate are all down, but he’s still inducing plenty of ground balls and limiting free passes at an elite clip.
- Connelly Early will throw the kitchen sink at opposing hitters. The Yankees have struggled against lefties (not named Yusei Kikuchi this season), and even though Aaron Judge is on a tear, he should have success in both his outings this week.
- Jack Flaherty has posted a K rate over 25% in three of his four starts this season, and his walk rate has slightly improved (13.6%, 13.0%) in his last two starts. He has two good match-ups this week with the Red Sox and Reds, both being in the bottom 11 in the league in K%, and the Red Sox being in the bottom 10 in BB%.
- Jack Kochanowicz (STOW) proved this week he can generate whiffs (12 in his start against the Yankees) and has gone 5.2 innings or more in his last three starts. The walks can be an issue, but he’s also slightly above average at inducing groundballs. I’m comfortable starting him against the Blue Jays and Royals.
- Max Meyer has the lowest fastball rate of the year and is leaning more into his sweeper than he did last season. The chase rate on his sweeper has jumped from 14.8% last year to 34.8% this season, and he should find success against the Cardinals and Giants this week.
- Kyle Harrison is back after Gary Sánchez plunked him in the knee on a PFP. His fastball has a 14.7% SwStr% against lefties this season and should see success against the lefty-heavy Pirates and Tigers this week.
- Mick Abel has been dominant in his last two outings against the Tigers and Red Sox. He should continue his hot streak against the reeling Mets and a Rays offense that relies on chaos more than power.
- Aaron Nola has two tough match-ups this week in the Cubs and Braves, but it’s too early to give up on him, especially when his fastball and (especially his) curveball are still above-average pitches per PLV.
Questionable
- J.T. Ginn will be making his third and fourth starts of the season. He’s still building up (78 pitches last start), but looks to pitch to soft contact, relying heavily on his sinker to righties, and a combination of his cutter/changeup/sinker to lefties. The lack of strikeouts limits his ceiling, and there’s always a chance he gets BABIP’d out of the game early
- Reynaldo López should be avoided against the Phillies, and I’d still be cautious starting him against the Nationals, who are tied for the most runs scored this season. The best you can hope for at this point is 5 innings with a few earned, a few walks, and 5-6 Ks.
- Bryce Elder has the best K% of his career and has kept his walk rate steady. However, this season he’s only faced the A’s, Diamondbacks, Guardians, and Marlins. If his success continues against the Nationals and Phillies, we can start to take notice of him as a potential option.
- Rhett Lowder doesn’t generate a lot of whiffs, but has been good at limiting walks. He excels at generating ground balls against righties with his sinker (64.7% GB%), but lefties have hammered his fastballs. That scares me away from starting him against the Tigers, but I’d consider trusting him against the Rays in daily leagues.
- Chase Dollander at Coors against the Padres is a hard pass, but on the road against the struggling Mets is an intriguing streaming option. He just dominated the Astros in Houston as a follower, striking out 9 and walking 2 over 5 innings.
- Justin Wrobleski in Coors is a scary option. Even though he just pitched 8 shutout innings against the Mets, he only struck out 2 hitters and relied on his defense. His second start is against the Cubs, who have the 8th-best wRC+ as a team.
- Carmen Mlodzinski was opened for in his last start and upped his splitter usage to 43.3% and found success. The fastballs aren’t great by PLV, and he will need to rely on his splitter for successful outings. Against the Rangers in Texas, he could be okay, but I’d look for a better option against the Brewers and wouldn’t trust him in weekly leagues.
- Michael McGreevy won’t strike out a ton of hitters, but won’t walk many either. He has 5 pitches with over a 10% usage rate and throws the kitchen sink at hitters to keep them off balance, relying on the strong defense behind him for success.
- Jesse Scholtens is another follower who won’t strike out a lot of hitters but also won’t walk many. He has two good match-ups this week, but he relies heavily on his slider, though, and if he doesn’t have a feel for that pitch, it’ll be a long day.
- Jake Irvin and Foster Griffin against the Braves’ offense is a scary proposition, but they could be worth a flier in deeper daily leagues. I’d prefer Griffin over Irvin as he can keep the White Sox off balance with his larger arsenal. Expecting more than 5 innings from either is a big ask, and they don’t have the strikeout upside.
Avoid
- Both Cubs starters, Colin Rea and Matthew Boyd, have difficult matchups this week. Rea doesn’t have the upside to consider against these two teams, and Boy’d is returning from injury after allowing three runs over 3.2 innings in a rehab start.
- Slade Cecconi didn’t allow many runs against the Cardinals, but walked 5 hitters. There are better options.
- Jose Quintana isn’t going deep into games and is walking more than double the number of hitters he strikes out.
- Sean Burke’s secondary stuff hasn’t been very good this year, and the contact rates are up on his fastball. There’s no good reason to stash him on your roster or consider streaming this week.
- Colton Gordon is starting due to injuries to the Astros rotation. He had a rough first start against the Rockies, and there are better options to consider.
- Luis Gil is a placeholder in the Yankees’ rotation while they wait for Carlos Rodón to return from injury. He doesn’t know where the ball is going, and the stuff is nowhere near where it was in 2024
- Tyler Mahle was awful against the Reds, allowing 9 hits and 5 walks (while still striking out 6, though). I’d look for a better option in his second start, and wouldn’t consider him against the Dodgers.
- Kumar Rocker doesn’t have the pitch-mix for me to feel confident in him. He’s primarily a sinker-slider to righties and sinker/slider/change to lefties, with the change-up not having notably different movement than the sinker. Lefties fare better against him, and he will face a lot of strong lefties this week in the Pirates + A’s lineups
Graphic Made By Doug Carlin
