It may be a bit early to talk about the trade deadline as we haven’t even hit the All-Star break yet, but when it comes to relievers, changes can happen at any moment. And a lot can change on this list from now until July 31st at 6 PM. For example, Shelby Miller, my original top closer to be traded, was just placed on the IL with a forearm strain, which thins the potential reliever pool if the injury winds up being serious. So while there are arguments for and against trading any one of these closers, all it takes is one desperate team in need of bullpen help to send an offer to the Red Sox for Aroldis Chapman that they simply can not refuse. That goes for everyone on this list, as every reliever has their price.
Probably Traded
Contract Situation: 1 year, $1M. Free Agent in 2026.
Odds of a trade: 0-75% (depends on injury severity)
Why he won’t be traded – Miller is the only reliever in this bullpen who has been consistently effective this season and has settled into the closer role nicely. His loss would create a huge hole in a bullpen decimated by injuries. With Corbin Carroll at least now back in the fold, perhaps the team decides to go for it. A recent forearm injury could destroy his value (the severity is still TBD).
Why he will be traded – Despite being 5.5 games out of a Wild Card spot, they’d have to leapfrog four teams to get in, which will be tough to do with all the injuries this roster has dealt with (Miller now included). This could be a good team for a small reset, as the team does have valuable trade assets such as Josh Naylor, Eugenio Suárez, and Zac Gallen in addition to Miller. The Diamondbacks struck gold signing Miller this year, but a lot of teams are likely to inquire about his services this month, possibly leaving the Diamondbacks with an offer they can’t refuse.
Contract Situation: 1 year, $6M. Free Agent in 2026.
Odds of a trade: 70%
Why he won’t be traded – No one wanted to trade for Finnegan last deadline, and no one wanted to sign him this offseason so teams may remain uninterested. Finnegan has had some success with the Nationals, maybe the player and team have an interest in sticking together.
Why he will be traded – Perhaps the Nationals’ expectation in a return for Finnegan was too high last year, but I’d imagine they’ll be different this year. The Nationals just fired their General Manager and Manager, so other big moves could be in the works, and Finnegan makes the most sense.
Contract Situation: 1 year, $5.9M. One more arbitration year. Free Agent in 2027.
Odds of a trade: 65%
Why he won’t be traded – The Pirates have been playing much better since firing Derek Shelton, and they may not want to disrupt the good chemistry by trading off big pieces this deadline. Bednar is still arbitration-eligible next year and is also a Pittsburgh native who may be interested in a long-term deal. He’s been pitching much better as of late and is one of the team’s longest-tenured players.
Why he will be traded – The Pirates are not making the playoffs this season, and who knows how serious they are about being contenders next year. Bednar has had some low points over the past year, but has been pitching great since his early-season demotion. This could be the Pirates’ best chance to sell high on Bednar. Would the team be open to an extension with a closer when they have so many other needs and a smaller payroll?
Contract Situation: 1 year, $10.75M. Free Agent in 2026.
Odds of a trade: 60%
Why he won’t be traded – The Red Sox are only 1 game back of the Wild Card, and Chapman is having a career year despite being 37 years old. Selling Chapman could deflate the clubhouse and send the wrong message to the rest of the team. Chapman has also stated how the Red Sox were his favorite team growing up, and given his success here, perhaps he’d be open to a team-friendly extension.
Why he will be traded – Trading Chapman (and only Chapman) doesn’t mean the Red Sox are waiving the white flag in their playoff pursuit. Chapman could be the most coveted reliever on the market this month, and the Red Sox, still at least a year or two away from truly competing, may have offers they simply can not turn down. Jordan Hicks was brought back in the Rafael Devers trade and I get the feeling the team believes he can be the closer moving forward.
Contract Situation: 1 year, $8.2M. Free Agent in 2026.
Odds of a trade: 55%
Why he won’t be traded – The Cardinals are only 1.5 games back of the last Wild Card spot, and still playing above .500 ball. Despite not investing much into this team for this season, the team has played well for the most part, and selling off their former All-Star closer could disrupt the team’s chemistry.
Why he will be traded – Despite the team’s success, most see them as overachieving, as they still have plenty of holes on the roster. It’s shown lately, as the team is 15-18 since June 1st. The team would also like to move Nolan Arenado, so if they start selling off pieces, expect Helsley to be one of them. By all reports, they have not been close to an extension, and Helsley is likely to test the market this winter.
Maybe Traded
Contract Situation: 1 year, $16M. Free Agent in 2026.
Odds of a trade: 45%
Why he won’t be traded – Iglesias had been one of the most consistent closers in the sport, but he’s struggled this year, so it’s fair to wonder what his value is across the league. The Braves have publicly stated how they really don’t want to be sellers despite the disappointing season, and they hope to keep this core together and compete next season.
Why he will be traded – The Braves are now 10.5 games out of a playoff spot, and with injuries in the rotation, their playoff hopes are bleaker than they ever have been. Iglesias is in the final year of his deal, and at 35 years old, does he have a future in Atlanta? The team could always trade him at the deadline and re-sign him this winter.
Contract Situation: 1 year, $10M. Free Agent in 2026.
Odds of a trade: 40%
Why he won’t be traded – The Angels are still looking to compete, and are only 4 games out of the Wild Card. Jansen wants to continue to pick up saves as he chases Lee Smith on the all-time leaderboard (16 saves behind). That is part of why he signed with the Angels, and I wonder if there’s some sort of handshake deal in place not to deal him unless he gets a chance to close with his new team. Jansen has not looked particularly great this year, with a career low 24% K rate, so will a team even want him to close? Will the return even be worth it for the Angels?
Why he will be traded – This team has been fading lately, and the roster isn’t exactly built for October (even with a healthy Mike Trout). The bullpen depth is thin, but perhaps they feel Robert Stephenson can essentially replace Jansen in the bullpen, making Jansen more expendable. Jansen was always considered a one-year rental, so if the team does sell, Jansen will certainly be available.
Contract Situation: 1 year, $9.2M. Can Opt In to a two-year, $16M deal after season (likely to opt out). Probably a Free Agent in 2026
Odds of a trade: 40%
Why he won’t be traded – The Padres are only one game out of the final playoff spot in the NL, and Suarez has been their closer for two full seasons now. The team is in Win-Now mode, so if they are moving Suarez, they’d likely want someone who can contribute right away in return. He’s struggled lately, and the metrics aren’t pretty, so can the Padres even get a return they’d ultimately be ok with?
Why he will be traded – Despite being the team’s closer, they really don’t need Suarez as he’s essentially the 4th or 5th best reliever on the roster. All-Star Jason Adam could easily close out games with Jeremiah Estrada and Adrian Morejon setting up. Suarez will also be a free agent after the season, as he will almost certainly opt out of his deal, and at 34 with guys like Estrada and Morejon on the roster, there’s no real reason to bring Suarez back.
Contract Situation: 1 year, $4M. Club Option for $7M in 2026. Free Agent by 2027.
Odds of a trade: 40%
Why he won’t be traded – The Rays are in the playoffs as of now, and trading their closer could be perceived as a bad look, especially considering the rest of the bullpen has been shaky. Fairbanks has a relatively cheap club option for next year (all things considered). The under-the-hood metrics are down this season, so what is Fairbanks’ actual value across the league? He likely would need to go to a playoff team that plays in a warm environment or dome, given his inability to pitch in cold weather due to his Raynaud’s syndrome.
Why he will be traded – This is the Rays, if they get an offer they like for Fairbanks, their position in the standings won’t matter. Fairbanks has already thrown 34.2 innings, his season high over his seven-year career is 45.1 IP, so what does he have left this season?
Jhoan Duran (or Griffin Jax)
Contract Situation: 1 year, $4.125M. Two more arbitration years. Free Agent in 2028.
Odds of a trade: 35%
Why he won’t be traded – The Twins aren’t out of the playoff race, and Duran is just 27, entering his prime and won’t hit free agency until 2028. Jax has the same contract situation, but he is 30 now, and trading him with his 4.23 ERA and 1.25 on the season could be considered selling low on one of the best non-closer relievers in baseball. The Duran/Jax duo has been one of the best in baseball over the past four seasons. Why not continue it for two more? The return likely would have to be a top 100 prospect, if not more, which is a lot for a reliever.
Why he will be traded – This could be selling high at Duran’s peak, as he is in the midst of another fantastic season. The Twins are 4 games out of the Wild Card with 5 teams to leapfrog, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them sell. Trading Duran (or Jax) now, with two years of team control left, would maximize the Twins’ potential return. Trading one of Duran or Jax is trading from a team strength, and with Louis Varland and Brock Stewart still under contract, the bullpen would still be in a good position.
Unlikely to be Traded
Contract Situation: 1 year, $8M. Free Agent in 2026.
Odds of a trade: 30%
Why he won’t be traded – The Reds are still only 4.5 games out of the Wild Card, and aren’t looking to spend time rebuilding with Terry Francona as manager. Pagán has been the Reds’ most (only?) trustworthy reliever this season, so they can’t afford to lose him if they are planning to compete.
Why he will be traded – Pagán is a Free Agent to be and at 34 years old, probably doesn’t fit into the Reds’ long-term plans. Are the Reds really contenders, and more importantly, does the front office truly believe this roster can win in October? The return for Pagán could be too good to pass up in a potentially weak reliever market.
Contract Situation: 1 year, $1M. Two more arbitration years. Free Agent in 2028.
Odds of a trade: 25%
Why he won’t be traded – Bautista still has two more years of team control and is in the midst of a solid, but not Bautista-esque season as he returns from Tommy John surgery. The Orioles are still hoping to contend, if not this year, next year at least, and Bautista is likely a big part of that plan.
Why he will be traded – The Orioles are 7.5 games out of the playoff race this year, and could see the rebuild taking more than a year or two. Bautista is 30 years old, and trading him now while he still has some team control left could net the biggest return for the team.
Contract Situation: 2 years, $8M. Club Options for $10M in 2027 and 2028. Free Agent by 2029.
Odds of a trade: 25%
Why he won’t be traded – Clase’s club options for $10 million in 2027 and 2028 are more than reasonable, and potentially a bargain. He’s still only 27 and has been able to stay healthy over the past four seasons. Despite his early struggles, Clase is still one of the most consistent closers and the leader of the Guardians’ bullpen, which is their strongest unit.
Why he will be traded – The Guardians are falling out of the playoff race, now 5.5 games back and needing to jump six teams to get into the final Wild Card spot. This organization is always looking to shed payroll, and they could move Clase with Cade Smith ready to take over the closer role. Clase’s trade value may be at its highest as the skills could be on the decline.
Contract Situation: 2 years, $22.2M. Club Option for $13M in 2027. Free Agent by 2028.
Odds of a trade: 20%
Why he won’t be traded – It’s been a disappointing season for the Royals, but Estévez has not been the problem. They have him locked up for one more season and are likely only open to selling off rentals at the deadline. Similar to Finnegan, teams won’t be impressed by the xStats, and it’s fair to wonder how Estévez would fare in a different home ballpark in a different division.
Why he will be traded – The team could sell high on Estévez and shed his payroll from next season in the process, as the Royals are 4 games out of the playoffs with four teams to leapfrog.
Contract Situation: 1 year, $765K. Four more arbitration years. Free Agent in 2030.
Odds of a trade: 15%
Why he won’t be traded – Miller is only 26 years old and is not a Free Agent until 2030, so the A’s are in no rush to move him. He remains one of the most talented closers in baseball, who is having a down season, so there is no need to trade him now, as things should get better.
Why he will be traded – The price would need to be right, but all it takes is one team to view Miller as a potential short and long-term game-changing addition to their pitching staff. The A’s are making strides, but they still feel years away, so who knows if Miller will even be around for that. They traded Lucas Erceg last year, who is also not a Free Agent until 2030.
Contract Situation: 1 year, $4.53M. Two more arbitration years. Free Agent in 2028.
Odds of a trade: 15%
Why he won’t be traded – Doval has (somewhat) stabilized the back end for the Giants this year, but he still hasn’t looked like his 2022-2023 self, and this could be seen as selling low. This team’s strength is its bullpen, so why mess with it when they are currently in line to make the postseason?
Why he will be traded – Similar to Suarez, the Giants would be fine without Doval, as Randy Rodríguez, Tyler Rogers, and Ryan Walker (great since losing the closer role) could hold down the back end. After losing the closer role last year and now back in it, if Doval were to be forced out of the role again, where would he be mentally if he is relegated to middle relief duty once again?
Top Non-Closer Candidates: Dennis Santana, Phil Maton, Chris Martin, Seranthony Domínguez, Gregory Soto, Scott Barlow, Jake Bird, JoJo Romero, Danny Coulombe, Paul Sewald
