The All-Star Break may not mark the exact midpoint of the baseball season, but it gives us a convenient dividing line between the first and second halves. It’s also an opportunity to see which pitchers used the brief pause to change the trajectory of their seasons. Maybe the break gave them time to heal, make adjustments, or reset mentally. Whatever the reason, second-half performance can reveal some interesting trends and help us separate sustainable improvement from a well-timed hot streak.
With that in mind, let’s look at some of the best-performing pitchers in both the major and minor leagues, ranked by second-half FIP since July 13.
Dynasty Buy or Sell: 2026 Second Half Pitching Breakouts
Minor Leagues
Here are the top 20 minor league starting pitchers in FIP for the second half, with blurbs for a few noteworthy players. Visit @YGMfantasy to watch film on each prospect listed below.
1. Daniel Brooks – ATL
A, A+, CPX: 28.2 IP | 0.31 ERA | 0.49 WHIP | 48.5% K% | 3.0% BB% | 1.08 FIP
Brooks is a 6’7″ undrafted 2025 free agent who struck out ten hitters in his first professional start. He was subsequently promoted to High-A for the final three starts of the year, where Brooks has found another level in his stuff, striking out 26 batters compared to only two walks across his final four starts. He uses an arm-heavy motion that generates most of its energy from a tall-and-fall delivery. The slider has a big break and supports a 92-93 mph fastball. During his College of Charleston days, Brooks showed starter stamina with five games of at least 90 pitches thrown. Given his sudden rise, it is unclear what the long-term plan for Brooks will be, but he will continue to develop as a starter until the success and lack of a deep arsenal get in the way. Verdict: Sell
2. Hyun-Seok Jang – LAD
A, A+: 19.1 IP | 4.19 ERA | 1.29 WHIP | 36.6% K% | 4.9% BB% | 1.65 FIP
3. Kelvis Salcedo – DET
A, CPX: 24.0 IP | 2.25 ERA | 1.00 WHIP | 39.2% K% | 6.2% BB% | 1.92 FIP
Salcedo shook off early knee surgery to post 35 strikeouts and six walks with a 17% swinging-strike rate across his final seven games. Those rates support his standout small sample from 2025, therefore depressing his value when compared to other pitchers with a more standard usage. Salcedo does have a more aggressive delivery as he moves out of the way to bring his arm up to a high slot, high release. His motion does allow him to generate tremendous cut on the ball, which gets big spin on his breakers. He currently has at least 45% whiff rates on the cutter, slider, and splitter. Given the strength of the arsenal, sufficient 95 mph velocity, success at the level, and missed time, Salcedo is an under-the-radar name that will appear on a lot of sleeper prospect lists in the offseason. Verdict: Buy
4. Brendan Beck – NYY
AAA: 42.0 IP | 2.57 ERA | 1.10 WHIP | 34.1% K% | 6.5% BB% | 1.96 FIP
5. Jacob Weaver – WSN
A, CPX: 22.1 IP | 5.24 ERA | 1.57 WHIP | 29.7% K% | 5.0% BB% | 1.97 FIP
6. Eliazar Dishmey – MIA
AA: 34.1 IP | 2.62 ERA | 1.05 WHIP | 35.6% K% | 8.1% BB% | 2.18 FIP
The exciting aspect of Eliazar Dishmey is seeing the combination of low contact and above-average strikeout stuff. Over his last four minor league stops, hitters have not managed more than a .188 average against while averaging around a 70% contact rate. Although the batted balls are fairly balanced between being hit in the air and on the ground, Dishmey has managed a low home run rate for the last three seasons. Most of that positive batted-ball data is due to his mid-90s sinker and diving changeup. When the batter doesn’t put the ball in play, Dishmey has settled into a strong 30%-plus strikeout rate and averages a 13% swinging-strike rate. Best of all, he doesn’t issue many free passes, improving to at or below a 10% walk rate by the end of 2026. Dishmey is 22 years old and appears to be another arm on the rise for the Marlins. Verdict: Buy
7. Dylan Brown – BOS
A+: 40.0 IP | 3.38 ERA | 1.05 WHIP | 31.7% K% | 4.3% BB% | 2.24 FIP
The 2025 mid-round draft pick quickly emerged as one of the minor leagues’ strikeout leaders, far exceeding his college production. Dylan Brown gets there with a smooth, low three-quarter arm slot and a casual follow-through, but the stuff doesn’t immediately jump off the page. His fastball looks pedestrian, while his slower, sweeper-like slider and average changeup don’t scream dominant arsenal. For a pitcher generating this many strikeouts, you’d expect more eye-catching raw stuff. Perhaps the left-handed advantage deserves much of the credit.
Brown has generally shown solid control, although stretches of the 2026 season featured elevated walk rates and trouble controlling the running game. The 36 stolen bases allowed are particularly glaring. He has also shown reverse splits, performing somewhat worse against left-handed hitters. Those are meaningful blemishes for a pitcher whose fastball already looks like a potential limitation. Still, Brown’s handedness gives him a path to success: his secondaries can play up against hitters who struggle to pick up the ball from his unusual arm slot. The strikeout numbers are worth monitoring, but the big question is whether Brown can keep missing bats as he faces better hitters without a more convincing fastball to fall back on. Verdict: Sell
8 Dasan Hill – TOR
A+: 22.0 IP| 3.68 ERA | 1.27 WHIP | 34.0% K% | 9.3% BB% | 2.25 FIP
Dasasn Hill injects some much-needed pitching help in Toronto after the Jeff Hoffman trade. The 20-year-old lefty has been clocked at 100 mph, while also throwing a slider, changeup, and curveball. Hill is a wiry slinger, with a lot of emphasis on the arm action during his follow-through. This has led to poor control at times and a small question about durability. His swinging-strike rate is average at 13%, but he has managed to hold a 30% strikeout rate throughout his professional career. The other positive is the high ground ball rate. For Hill’s near-term value, he will need to build up to 100+ innings pitched while maintaining these ratios to be taken more seriously as a high-quality lefty. Verdict: Sell
9. Hayden Mullins – BOS
AA: 44.0 IP | 1.64 ERA | 1.02 WHIP | 33.0% K% | 10.1% BB% | 2.42 FIP
10. Ben Hess – NYY
AA: 21.1 IP | 3.80 ERA | 1.22 WHIP | 26.7% K% | 8.9% BB% | 2.48 FIP
11. Boston Bateman – BAL
A+: 20.0 IP | 2.70 ERA | 1.40 WHIP | 37.6% K% | 16.5% BB% | 2.52 FIP
12. Anthony Eyanson – BAL
AA: 43.2 IP | 1.85 ERA | 1.08 WHIP | 40.2% K% | 8.6% BB% | 2.68 FIP
Anthony Eyanson opened his professional career by making hitters look completely overmatched: 18 innings, zero walks, and 30 strikeouts. When he finally issued his first professional free pass, he followed it up by striking out all three batters he faced to end the inning. Subtlety isn’t exactly the selling point here. Eyanson’s strikeout ceiling might even exceed Ryan Sloan’s, thanks to a collection of nasty breaking pitches and a fastball approach built around attacking hitters from top to bottom. His quick-moving, 12-to-6 curveball is a particular standout, although he can occasionally leave it short of the plate.
The question is whether hitters will eventually figure out the one-dimensional nature of his movement profile. Almost everything Eyanson throws works on a north-south plane, with very little east-west movement to disrupt a hitter’s visual expectations. That makes him reminiscent of Jonah Tong and Chase Burns, who also had to find ways to keep hitters from sitting on the vertical approach. Tong added a cutter, increased his changeup usage, and lowered his arm angle, while Burns found ways to generate more movement on his changeup. Eyanson already has the breaking-ball firepower to overwhelm hitters, but he’ll need to add a horizontal element to keep them guessing. Otherwise, that devastating curveball could become easier to anticipate, and his sky-high strikeout potential may be harder to sustain as he climbs the ladder. Verdict: Sell
13 Yhoiker Fajardo – STL
A+, AA: 37.2 IP | 3.82 ERA | 1.19 WHIP | 27.8% K% | 6.3% BB% | 2.71 FIP
14. Andrew Sears – DET
AA, AAA: 25.1 IP | 1.42 ERA | 0.87 WHIP | 28.1% K% | 9.4% BB% | 2.73 FIP
15. Ryan Sloan – SEA
AA: 39.0 IP | 3.23 ERA | 1.03 WHIP | 32.9% K% | 2.6% BB% | 2.73 FIP
The Seattle Mariners have telegraphed their pitching development strategy for years, even before they made headlines in 2026 by having Kade Anderson skip Triple-A. Despite everything Ryan Sloan has going for him—high velocity, a deep arsenal, and elite control—we may need to slow down the hype train for his major league debut in 2027. If Seattle gets aggressive, we could see Sloan earn meaningful innings after rosters expand in September. But he’s about to enter his age-21 season, and the organization has little reason to rush him unless an injury opens a hole in the rotation.
The stuff is already enticing. Sloan’s drop-and-drive delivery helps generate excellent extension, giving his four-pitch arsenal a strong platform to attack hitters. The splitter is the secondary to watch, offering another potential weapon to complement his velocity and broader pitch mix. The frustrating part is that his run prevention hasn’t consistently matched the quality of his stuff. Still, even arguably his worst month of 2026, June, hardly looked like a disaster: Sloan posted a 27% strikeout rate, a 2% walk rate, five home runs allowed, and just eight earned runs surrendered. That’s a pretty forgiving floor for a pitcher who hasn’t even reached his age-21 season. The debut timeline remains a question, but the underlying skills give Seattle plenty of reasons to be patient—and dynasty managers plenty of reasons to stay interested. Verdict: Buy
16. Miguel Sime Jr. – WSN
A+: 26.2 IP | 1.35 ERA | 1.13 WHIP | 42.2% K% | 17.4% BB% | 2.79 FIP
The contradictions with Miguel Sime are impossible to ignore: the control is alarming, but the strikeout numbers are scintillating. Sime has struck out more than 40% of the batters he has faced across his final high school season and his first professional campaign. As a senior, he posted a 42% strikeout rate alongside a 12% walk rate, suggesting he has the potential to get his control back to a more manageable level than the 20% walk rate he recorded this season. The downside is obvious if those command issues persist, but the arsenal is too exciting to dismiss. Come for the triple-digit heater, stay for the nasty breakers. His slider and curveball are ideal complements for hitters who start gearing up for the fastball, while the splitter gives him another weapon to disrupt timing. That pitch also makes sense given his over-the-top, catapult-like delivery.
The swing-and-miss numbers are elite, and Sime has held opponents to a sparkling 51% contact rate. Hitters are practically telling us they can’t get a comfortable read on him, even as the results remain a work in progress. For a 19-year-old with this kind of raw stuff, that’s an enticing foundation. Sime still has plenty of development ahead of him, and better coaching and experience could help him turn those eye-popping tools into more consistent execution. The control is the obvious hurdle, but the upside is just as clear: Sime has outlier stuff that could become even more devastating as he advances through the minors and learns to harness it. Verdict: Buy
17. Jarlin Susana – WSN
A+, AA, AAA: 20.1 IP 6.20 ERA 1.43 WHIP 39.4 K% 11.7 BB% 2.80 FIP
After the initial excitement of seeing Jarlin Susana sit at triple digits wears off, there are growing concerns that his stuff will not play as a starter. Susana is launching fastballs from a three-quarter slot at an average of 101 mph with little meaningful movement. He backs up that pitch with a decent slider and not much else. Through the lower levels, he has been able to overpower the opposition with the fastball, usually being undone by unforced errors. Walks and wild pitches continue to show up in the game logs, even in the Arizona Fall League. Yet, he has limited the long ball and hard contact overall, making Susana an attractive dynasty buy due to the depressed value he likely holds after so much time off. Verdict: Sell
18. Justin West – NYY
A: 44.0 IP | 2.86 ERA | 1.02 WHIP | 26.0% K% | 6.5% BB% | 2.82 FIP
19. Jagger Beck – HOU
A: 34.0 IP | 2.65 ERA | 1.06 WHIP | 30.5% K% | 9.9% BB% | 2.84 FIP
20. Caden Hunter – BAL
A+, AA: 42.2 IP | 2.53 ERA | 1.01 WHIP | 35.7% K% | 9.4% BB% | 2.85 FIP
Major Leagues
Here are the top-25 major league starting pitchers in FIP for the second half, with blurbs for a few noteworthy players.
1. Tarik Skubal – DET/LAD
83 IP | 2.39 ERA | 0.98 WHIP | 30.0% K% | 5.0% BB% | 15.7% SwStr% | 2.00 FIP
2. Reid Detmers – LAA
76.1 IP | 1.89 ERA | 0.89 WHIP | 30.6% K% | 4.5% BB% | 13.3% SwStr% | 2.54 FIP
Reid Detmers rode a two-pitch combination to the highest innings total of his career, logging 185 innings across 32 starts. That kind of durability and stamina puts him in the conversation as one of the more intriguing starting pitchers in the game. The turnaround is particularly surprising given that Detmers found success as a high-leverage reliever in 2025, when his strikeout numbers and Stuff+ suggested there was more potential to unlock. He has carried those gains into this season: his Pitching+ and slider Stuff+ grades are above average, and he has elevated his entire arsenal to average Stuff+ territory. The results point to a pitcher who has found a more sustainable formula without sacrificing the traits that made him intriguing in the first place.
Detmers has built that success around his two most-used pitches: the fastball and slider. He doesn’t have overpowering velocity, but a left-hander sitting at 94–95 mph can still be plenty effective with the right approach. Detmers helps his fastball by targeting the upper part of the zone, where he can challenge hitters for strikes. His slider is the more dynamic weapon, generating both chase and weak contact thanks in part to its mirrored release off the fastball. The next step is making his curveball and changeup more convincing complements. The curveball is especially easy to identify because of its slower delivery and high release point, and its below-batting-practice velocity can give disciplined hitters time to sit on the fastball before adjusting to the breaker. However, his final start of the year featured more changeups, an encouraging sign that he may be looking to diversify the attack.
The second-half results suggest there may be more here than a two-pitch starter. Detmers posted a career-best 14-strikeout game in the first half, then followed it with an 11-strikeout performance and an ERA below 2.00 in the second half. His slider remained the primary bat-missing weapon, producing a ridiculous 43% strikeout rate after July 13. More surprisingly, the curveball also delivered strong results, holding hitters to a .167 average against with a 35% whiff rate over the same period. Those numbers complicate the idea that the curveball is simply a liability. Despite its telegraphed appearance, it may be catching hitters off guard and stealing strikes early in counts. The pitch might not look pretty, but the results suggest it deserves a longer look before being written off.
Detmers is a free agent, making his landing spot a significant variable in his future fantasy value. A new team could influence his win potential, but the bigger story is the work he has already done: refining his arsenal, maintaining excellent control, and carrying his relief success into a full starter’s workload. For dynasty and redraft managers, Detmers offers an appealing combination of proven durability and room for further improvement. If he can make the curveball and changeup more consistent parts of his attack, he could become more than a pitcher surviving on two offerings—and turn this career-best season into a new baseline. Verdict: Buy
3. Jacob deGrom – TEX
62.0 IP | 5.37 ERA | 1.34 WHIP | 29.6% K% | 9.0% BB% | 14.6% SwStr% | 2.65 FIP
4. Trevor Rogers – BAL
79.1 IP | 3.52 ERA | 1.05 WHIP | 27.8% K% | 2.5% BB% | 13.1% SwStr% | 2.73 FIP
5. Parker Messick – CLE
74.1 IP | 2.30 ERA | 1.05 WHIP | 27.5% K% | 4.3% BB% | 11.0% SwStr% | 2.74 FIP
Everyone seems to be studying the rise of Parker Messick and asking how the fantasy community can identify the next breakout before it happens. The intriguing part of Messick’s success is that he has outperformed his Stuff+ numbers, suggesting there’s another layer to his game that makes him difficult for hitters to solve. His zone rate has never been a strength, but he gets the most out of a 94–95 mph fastball by elevating it in the zone. The pitch plays well above its raw velocity, and with little reason to expect another meaningful jump in speed, Messick will need to keep winning with location and execution. The biggest opportunity for growth lies in the consistency of his changeup and curveball, both of which have fluctuated in usage and effectiveness. Against a lineup dominated by right-handed hitters, the changeup has been particularly valuable, serving as both a contact neutralizer and a major chase pitch. If he can make that offering—and his curveball—a more dependable part of the arsenal, he could further close the gap between his underlying stuff grades and his on-field production.
The biggest concern heading into 2027 is the workload. Messick reached 200 total innings in 2026, surpassing his previous season total by 62 innings, or 44%. Not every pitcher handles that kind of year-over-year increase well, and his underwhelming postseason performance raises the possibility that the workload caught up with him. Across his four playoff games, his strike rate dipped, his walk rate climbed, and opposing hitters did considerably more damage against his pitches. Four games are hardly enough to declare that he hit a wall, but the late-season results are worth monitoring after such a substantial jump in innings.
Still, assuming his health holds, Messick has earned the benefit of the doubt. His ability to outperform his stuff metrics, pair an elevated fastball with an effective changeup, and consistently navigate a lineup gives him a strong foundation for continued fantasy production. As a seventh- or eighth-round pick, he profiles as a quality No. 2 or No. 3 fantasy starter, with the potential to outperform that price if his secondary pitches become more consistent. The workload introduces some risk, but the breakout looks more like something to believe in than something to dismiss. Verdict: Buy
6 Payton Tolle – BOS
64.2 IP | 2.92 ERA | 1.13 WHIP | 32.1% K% | 5.7% BB% | 15.0% SwStr% | 2.79 FIP
7. Kyle Leahy – STL
50.2 IP | 3.55 ERA | 1.22 WHIP | 27.4% K% | 3.8% BB% | 10.6% SwStr% | 2.86 FIP
Kyle Leahy’s transition from reliever to starter was a success, as he logged 140 innings across 30 starts in 2026. He leaned on his sinker and consistently solid location to deliver respectable, if unspectacular, strikeout and walk rates. In the middle of the summer, Leahy put together a particularly impressive 10-game stretch in which he never allowed more than two runs and almost always worked at least five innings. What began as an intriguing collection of pitch characteristics—including 7.2 feet of extension and a six-pitch mix—has developed into a legitimate starting-pitcher profile. His innings per appearance tapered off down the stretch, but that’s understandable given his history as a reliever and the workload he handled in his first full season as a starter.
Looking ahead to 2027 and beyond, Leahy profiles as a No. 4 or No. 5 starter who can use his control and deep arsenal to navigate a batting order two, and potentially three, times. At his best in the middle of the summer, he paired a high-velocity slider with an 89-mph changeup that broke opposite way, giving hitters two distinct looks to contend with. Whiffs probably won’t ever be his calling card, but there’s room for growth if he can push his swinging-strike rate closer to league average rather than sitting well below it. Leahy also has a favorable team context, with solid defense behind him and an up-and-coming offense that could provide more run support. After recording ten wins this season, a bump to 13–14 wins in 2027 is within reach, potentially alongside slightly better ratios. Leahy may not have the stuff to become a frontline fantasy starter, but his workload, command, and developing arsenal give him a dependable foundation. This second-half surge is worth buying into. Verdict: Buy
8. Cristopher Sánchez – PHI
79.2 IP | 3.39 ERA | 1.23 WHIP | 26.2% K% | 6.0% BB% | 13.6% SwStr% | 2.96 FIP
The walks and hits piled up at an alarming rate throughout the season, making it difficult to trust this pitcher in the ratio categories. The best thing for his 2027 fantasy value may have been the Phillies’ quick playoff exit, which spared him further exposure after a season that left plenty of questions about his ability to limit baserunners and damage. The counting stats should remain relatively stable, but that production may come at the expense of your ERA and WHIP, weighing down an otherwise competitive rotation. At his expected cost, that’s a trade-off I’m not willing to make. Unless the price drops considerably, I’ll be out in 2027 if he continues to cost a pick in the first three rounds. Verdict: Sell
9. Gavin Williams – CLE
71.0 IP | 3.68 ERA | 1.06 WHIP | 39.9% K% | 8.4% BB% | 17.6 SwStr% | 3.04 FIP
At a fourth-round ADP, Williams looks like a fair price for a redraft ace. He offers the strikeout upside to anchor a fantasy rotation, and his improved command and simplified arsenal make the profile more convincing than it was a year ago. The remaining question is how consistently he can handle left-handed hitters, but that concern doesn’t outweigh the overall package. Williams has the stuff to be a difference-maker, and his postseason performance offered one more reason to believe he can deliver on that upside in 2027.
Williams took a major step forward in his second full season with Cleveland, with his stuff, command, and overall pitching execution all trending in the right direction. The key was simplification. Williams trimmed his arsenal by eliminating the changeup and slider while incorporating more sweepers, allowing him to lean harder on his best breaking ball. He used the sweeper effectively both early and late in counts, generating excellent chase and whiff rates while limiting hitters to a low average against it. Left-handed-heavy lineups found a little more success against his arsenal, but Williams countered by adding a tick of velocity to his fastball. The result was a more streamlined attack built around pitches he could trust, and he carried that approach into October.
Williams was dominant in the postseason, recording 33 strikeouts, six walks, and a 20% swinging-strike rate across four appearances. Those numbers reinforce the idea that his improvements are more than a regular-season hot streak: his stuff can miss bats at an elite level, and his command has developed enough to let that stuff play. Like teammate Parker Messick, Williams also reached 200 innings in the season, but the workload feels more manageable. Williams’ progress with his arsenal and his ability to miss bats provide a stronger foundation for handling that volume, though any pitcher making such a leap in workload deserves some monitoring.
At a fourth-round ADP, Williams looks like a fair price for a redraft ace. He offers the strikeout upside to anchor a fantasy rotation, and his improved command and simplified arsenal make the profile more convincing than it was a year ago. The remaining question is how consistently he can handle left-handed hitters, but that concern doesn’t outweigh the overall package. Williams has the stuff to be a difference-maker, and his postseason performance offered one more reason to believe he can deliver on that upside in 2027. Verdict: Buy
10. Walbert Ureña – LAA
67.0 IP | 3.09 ERA | 1.12 WHIP | 23.6% K% | 8.1% BB% | 12.7% SwStr% | 3.23 FIP
Walbert Ureña may still fly under the radar because a few too many outings have featured high walk totals and underwhelming strikeout numbers. But those willing to dig a little deeper will find a 22-year-old pitcher who can touch triple digits with his fastball—and that’s only his third- or fourth-most-used pitch! Ureña’s 98 mph sinker is the real bread and butter, generating a 63% ground-ball rate and giving him a reliable foundation to attack hitters. He has two plus pitches, a plan of attack that works against both righties and lefties, and something else that shouldn’t be overlooked: a solid foundation of innings built over the last two seasons. The command and strikeout consistency still need to catch up with the raw stuff, but the ingredients are here for a meaningful step forward.
With an early ADP in the 14th or 15th round, Ureña is exactly the kind of upside play worth targeting late in drafts. You’re not buying a finished product, but you are buying a 22-year-old with premium velocity, a ground-ball weapon, and enough experience to give the profile some substance. If the walks become more manageable and the strikeouts tick up, Ureña could outperform that price by a wide margin—and emerge as the second- or third-best starting pitcher on your staff. Buy
11. Hunter Brown – HOU
72.0 IP | 3.00 ERA | 1.21 WHIP | 28.5% K% | 11.1% BB% | 11.0% SwStr% | 3.28 FIP
Considering Hunter Brown suffered a Grade 2 shoulder strain and spent two months on the injured list, his placement on this list is all the more impressive. His fastball and slider took a step back, but a healthy offseason could help those pitches return closer to their previous form. In the meantime, his new cutter has helped pick up the slack from his other less-effective secondary offerings, giving him another weapon to lean on while the rest of his arsenal rebounds. There’s reason to be concerned about the dip in performance, but there’s also a clear path back to better results if health and stuff return to form.
Brown’s underwhelming season statistics and poor postseason start could push his draft price down considerably. After carrying a 31 ADP the previous season, he could fall outside the eighth round in upcoming drafts. That kind of discount would make him an intriguing buy-low target: you’re betting on a pitcher whose recent results have obscured his potential, not one who needs to reinvent himself entirely. Verdict: Buy
12. Andre Pallante – STL
62.0 IP | 3.63 ERA | 1.29 WHIP | 14.8% K% | 8.2% BB% | 8.9% SwStr% | 3.31 FIP
13. Brandon Pfaadt – ARI
82.1 IP | 3.17 ERA | 1.09 WHIP | 16.0% K% | 4.2% BB% | 9.6% SwStr% | 3.38 FIP
14. Sonny Gray – BOS
73.1 IP | 2.95 ERA | 1.21 WHIP | 21.3% K% | 7.3% BB% | 10.4% SwStr% | 3.40 FIP
15. Tyler Mahle – SFG/ATL
71.0 IP | 2.54 ERA | 0.99 WHIP | 23.1% K% | 5.1% BB% | 10.7% SwStr% | 3.48 FIP
16. Logan Webb – SFG
60.1 IP | 5.07 ERA | 1.19 WHIP | 21.1% K% | 5.9% BB% | 9.9% SwStr% | 3.48 FIP
17. Peter Lambert – HOU
69.2 IP | 4.65 ERA | 1.42 WHIP | 23.5% K% | 8.4% BB% | 11.1% SwStr% | 3.50 FIP
18. Bryan Woo – SEA
68.2 IP | 3.67 ERA | 1.15 WHIP | 25.5% K% | 6.6% BB% | 11.6% SwStr% | 3.54 FIP
Bryan Woo fell short of his preseason expectations in nearly every major category, underperforming in strikeouts, walks, average against, contact, and whiffs despite being graded with virtually the same above-average stuff. That disconnect is what makes him an intriguing bounce-back candidate. Even with a disappointing ERA, Woo did a good job suppressing home runs and was hurt by a low strand rate, suggesting the final results may have been worse than his underlying performance warranted.
The foundation for a rebound is still there. Woo is sitting at 97 mph with his four-seamer and continues to pair that velocity with strong command. The more pressing issue may be getting his sinker back to its previous locations. The pitch was landing higher in the zone than in past seasons, and hitters made him pay, launching six home runs against it for a 40% home-run-per-fly-ball rate. If Woo can improve his sinker location while maintaining his fastball velocity and command, he has a clear path toward recapturing his 2025 form.
That makes draft cost especially important. If Woo’s disappointing season pushes him down the board, he becomes an appealing target in the fourth or fifth round. You’re buying a pitcher with an established track record of success, above-average stuff, and a plausible explanation for the downturn—not someone who needs a complete overhaul. A discount would make the risk easier to stomach, and the upside could make Woo a bargain at that price. Verdict: Buy
19. Eduardo Rodriguez – ARI
75.2 IP | 3.81 ERA | 1.35 WHIP | 19.6% K% | 7.1% BB% | 11.7% SwStr% | 3.56 FIP
20. David Peterson – CHC
64.2 IP | 2.78 ERA | 1.33 WHIP | 23.8% K% | 9.7% BB% | 9.9% SwStr% | 3.56 FIP
21. Taj Bradley – MIN
75.2 IP | 3.93 ERA | 1.23 WHIP | 27.4% K% | 11.4% BB% | 11.3% SwStr% | 3.68 FIP
Taj Bradley was the best version of his profile for a full starter’s workload. He did that despite a right pectoral injury that almost derailed his path in the second month of the season. Having surpassed 200 strikeouts and sustaining an ERA under 4.00 this season, one would have expected Bradley to have greater swing-and-miss stuff and serve up fewer home runs. Actually, he allowed more free passes, harder contact, and more fly balls, and maintained the same slightly below-average strike rate he has always had. The change, then? His Stuff+ grades improved across his entire four-pitch arsenal, along with his pitchability. His foundation is the four-seam fastball, which saw an extra tick of velocity in the second half. Assuming the injury bug doesn’t bite, Bradley is primed to deliver these exact second-half statistics throughout the season as your SP3 or SP4 fantasy starter. Verdict: Buy
22. Shane Baz – BAL
68.0 IP | 3.97 ERA | 1.28 WHIP | 19.2% K% | 7.3% BB% | 8.9% SwStr% | 3.69 FIP
23. Bubba Chandler – PIT
59.2 IP | 4.37 ERA | 1.32 WHIP | 21.7% K% | 9.9% BB% | 8.1% SwStr% | 3.70 FIP
Bubba Chandler still has room to grow and a supportive team context to allow him to develop at the major-league level. We can no longer point to a bad attitude as the root of his control issues, now that he has duplicated the 12% walk rate and 62-63% strike rate he had with Triple-A Indianapolis. Therefore, Chandler will need to harness more strikes from his secondaries, as his 98 mph four-seamer is doing most of the work. It’s hard to fathom that a 91 mph slider, a 91 mph changeup, and a 97 mph sinker can’t elicit poor contact or missed bats, but it’s true. The slider and changeup are the pitches to watch early on in the season for any change in zone rate, chase, and hits against. Verdict: Buy at his depressed ADP outside of the 15th round.
24. José Soriano – LAA/TOR
66.1 IP | 4.61 ERA | 1.28 WHIP | 19.4% K% | 7.2% BB% | 10.2% SwStr% | 3.78 FIP
T-25. Max Scherzer – TOR
62.2 IP | 4.16 ERA | 1.20 WHIP | 20.6% K% | 9.2% BB% | 10.1% SwK% | 3.82 FIP
Kudos to any fantasy manager who took the plunge and held on to Max Scherzer during his stint on the injured list. You were rewarded with a great last hurrah. Verdict: Sell
T-25. Nolan McLean – NYM
72.1 IP | 2.61 ERA | 1.24 WHIP | 23.1% K% | 10.4% BB% | 9.4% SwStr% | 3.82 FIP
After rising to ace status in a hurry in 2025, Nolan McLean couldn’t quite sustain that level of dominance. Still, he delivered solid value for managers who drafted him around a 100 ADP, and his price remains relatively stable heading into the offseason. That creates an interesting opportunity. His name recognition could make him a sell-high candidate, even if his actual fantasy value hasn’t climbed much. If you decide to hold, the 20 quality starts he delivered provide a reassuring floor for a pitcher who remains capable of much more.
The biggest concerns are command and hitters becoming more adept at recognizing pitches that come from his lowered arm angle. That slot can tip off a pitch with heavy movement, particularly when McLean’s breaking balls are headed outside the zone. The results are reflected in his pitch-level metrics: his curveball, sweeper, and changeup all posted zone rates below 36% and strike rates below 57%. When hitters can identify the shape and location early, they can simply lay off and force McLean to prove he can consistently get ahead in the count. That’s a problem for both his efficiency and his strikeout upside.
The encouraging part is that McLean may not need a complete arsenal overhaul to get back on track. Finding a more reliable target point for his breaking pitches could make them less predictable, generate more called strikes, and put hitters back on the defensive. If he can improve his command without sacrificing the movement that makes his arsenal dangerous, McLean has a path back toward a starting-pitcher profile with a 20% K-BB floor. His 2025 peak remains the upside, but the next step is turning his stuff into more consistent strikes. Verdict: Sell
Photo by John Cordes/Icon Sportswire | Featured Image by Justin Redler (@reldernitsuj on Bsky/Twitter)
