The Rice Precedent
Ben Rice (NYY): 4-5, 2B, 2 RBI.
No home run last night for Ben Rice, but after tallying a career-high four hits, he is hitting .317 with a .472 wOBA. It’s always fun seeing league-winners come out of nowhere. What? You’re saying the season isn’t three weeks long? Regardless, Rice’s 1.064 OPS ranks sixth between Corbin Carroll (1.065) and Jung Hoo Lee (1.055). All this from a guy who wasn’t even an afterthought this past draft season; he had an NFBC ADP of 445.
Rice’s bat didn’t really show up until 2023, when he hit .327 with a .455 wOBA and 1.049 OPS across 48 games with Double-A Somerset. However, he wasn’t exactly young for the level at 24 and profiled as a decent platoon bat. Still, he boomed again last season with Triple-A Scranton before the big promotion. But his Bronx debut was a dud; he hit .178 with a .269 wOBA across 50 games last year.
Rice performed well this past spring, earning a spot on the Opening Day roster, but lacked a clear role, with Paul Goldschmidt locking down first base. But he has since banged the door down and forced Aaron Boone to pencil him in the lineup. He initially sat against LHP, but that might be a thing of the past, considering he hit second against Tarik Skubal on April 8th. Profiles fluctuate a ton this early, but Rice checks all the boxes; his hard-hit rate, chase rate, and barrel rate rank in the 94th percentile or better. His bat speed isn’t far off either (86th percentile). And he’s got pretty decent speed. Sure, this could all turn to dust, but right now, a 26-year-old 12th-round pick out of Dartmouth looks an awful lot like the Yankees’ second-best hitter.
Let’s see how the other hitters did Thursday:
Pavin Smith (ARI): 2-3, 2B, HR, R, 2 RBI, 2 BB, SB.
Edward Cabrera tossed Pavin Smith an 0-2 sinker and watched it fly over the right field fence, giving the D’backs a 2-0 lead in the first. And sure, why not? Smith has officially fulfilled his yearly quota with one stolen base. The lefty was terrific last year in a limited role, posting a .377 wOBA and 142 wRC+ across 158 plate appearances. And he’s been red-hot thus far, hitting .404 with a .481 wOBA. It’s tempting to ring the breakout bell after glancing at his Statcast page, although his strikeout rate is up a ton to 34%. But we’re probably seeing a really good platoon bat do his thing a la Ryan O’Hearn or Joc Pederson. The upcoming weekend lines up well for Smith with the D’Backs facing three RHP at Wrigley Field, making him a strong short-term add.
Josh Naylor also went yard for the D’Backs, his third in as many days.
Austin Hays (CIN): 1-5, HR, R, 2 RBI.
The former Oriole went oppo on a 95 mph sinker from RHP Emerson Hancock, giving the Reds a 2-0 lead in the bottom of the first (387 feet, 103.3 EV). Hays has gone yard twice since returning from the IL on the 15th and seems to have a good role in the middle of the Reds’ lineup. Over his last two seasons (1,148 PA), he’s hit .263 with a .322 wOBA and 109 wRC+. Not earth-shattering, but the GABP could help him produce a peak season. Deep-leaguers should give him a look.
Jake Fraley, who hit eighth, went 3-for-4, including his first homer of the year.
Randy Arozarena (SEA): 2-4, 2B, HR, 2 R, 3 RBI, 2 BB.
With the Reds holding a 7-6 lead in the ninth, Randy Arozarena blasted a game-tying dinger off Emilio Pagán (376 feet, 108.2 EV). In the tenth, Arozarena extended the M’s 8-7 lead by banging a groundball past Elly De La Cruz and into center field for a two-run double. The 2020 ALCS MVP is off the interstate and riding a .866 OPS and .351 wOBA. He’s also walking at a career-best rate of 17.9%.
Cal Raleigh hit his eighth, putting him one behind Tyler Soderstrom for the MLB lead. Luke Raley also hit his second of the season.
Brent Rooker (ATH): 3-5, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI.
Rooker put the finishing touches on an 8-0 drubbing of the White Sox, drilling a Bryse Wilson cutter into the left field seats (415 feet, 107.3 EV). One of last year’s league winners, Rooker is hitting .232 with a .727 OPS. However, his hard-hit rate (50%) and xwOBA (.371) are right in line with last season. He also started in the outfield for the third time. Nick Kurtz’s countdown continues.
Tyler Soderstrom crushed his league-leading ninth homer. Lawrence Butler and J.J. Bleday each hit their second of the season.
Mark Vientos (NYM): 1-4, HR, R, RBI.
Finally! Vientos went against the current, lifting a 90 mph fastball from RHP Andre Pallante just over the right field wall (339 feet, 100.1 EV); the solo shot gave the Mets a 1-0 lead in the bottom of the second. The righty entered last night’s game hitting .145 with a .223 wOBA. However, he has cut his strikeout rate from 29.7% to 19.7% and increased his walk rate from 7.3% to 12.7%.
Heston Kjerstad (BAL): 1-2, HR, R, 2 RBI, BB.
Kjerstad slugged a hanging changeup from Tanner Bibee over the right field fence for a two-run shot, extending the O’s lead to 6-2 in the sixth (400 feet, 105.6 EV). The 26-year-old lefty hasn’t gotten great results thus far, hitting .233 with a .680 OPS. His hard-hit rate is encouraging (82nd percentile). But his 38.9% chase rate isn’t what you want, and he wasn’t drawn walk, which is odd considering his minor league numbers. He remains an intriguing speculative add, given the power he’s shown in the minors, although Brandon Hyde has been really stingy with his playing time against LHP. Colton Cowser is targeting a late May return, so Kjerstad has a few weeks to distinguish himself.
Gunnar Henderson hit his first home run, and Ryan O’Hearn also hit his third for the O’s.
Adolis García (TEX): 1-3, HR, R, 2 RBI.
García drilled a Jack Kochanowicz 3-0 sinker over the fence in left, extending the Rangers’ lead to 4-1 in the third (382 feet, 99.2 EV). The 32-year-old Cuban endured career lows last year, but seemed like a reasonable bounceback candidate considering he hit .246 with a .331 wOBA and 112 wRC+ from 2021-23. He’s hitting .230 with three dingers and a .322 wOBA thus far in 2025. He’s also swinging at a career-high 55.9% with a chase rate in the bottom 4th percentile; the ultra-aggressive approach might make him prone to peaks and valleys.
Corey Seager also hit his third of the year in the Rangers’ 5-3 win over the Angels.
Oneil Cruz (PIT): 1-3, HR, R, RBI, BB, SB.
Cruz produced the only run of the game, taking Trevor Williams deep in the first with a breathtaking drive to deep right (442 feet, 114.5 EV). He’s hitting .228, but you know that’ll come up considering his 99th percentile bat speed. He leads the league with nine steals, two ahead of Pete Crow-Armstrong. And, hey, he’s bumped his walk rate from 8.5% to 14.9%.
Richie Palacios (TBR): 3-4, 2B, R, SB.
Palacios made his first start of the year after returning from a fractured right finger. The lefty can play all three spots in the outfield, giving him a shot at a short-term role with Johnny DeLuca and Josh Lowe sidelined. Deep leaguers in need of speed might want to look his way as a stopgap, given that he swiped 19 bases across 92 games last year. He also had a pretty decent .346 OBP last year.
Victor Scott II (STL): 1-3, R, SB.
Another stolen base specialist, Scott swiped his seventh, putting him in a three-way tie with Pete Crow-Armstrong and Jake Mangum for second on the leaderboard. However, Scott’s questionable power (7th percentile bat speed) might make him a one-category contributor, especially if he remains near the bottom of the order; he’s hit ninth or eighth in his last five starts.
Photo by Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X)
