Below, you will find our latest Out% update. The data has been accumulated over the course of the season and is updated as of Friday, 5/8.
Here are a few basics relating to Out Rate:
- Out% = how often a pitcher’s pitch results in an out
- Good Out% = how many of the outs were on batted balls that had an expected batting average below .250, plus strikeouts
- Lucky Out% = how many of the outs were on batted balls that had an xBA of .250 or higher
You can use Out% to help you make tough decisions about your pitching staff, including whom to drop or add, and whom to trade for or away. Out% is also a reasonably effective predictive tool, considering its modest “stickyness.” So, pitchers with multiple high Out% pitches will tend to do better in terms of ERA, especially pitchers with high fastball Out Rates.
For a little more info on the basics of Out rate, read this.
For some more specifics on good and lucky outs, read this.
And to view our Out% Leaderboard Google Doc, click this.
League Average Out Rates
Below are the league average out rates for each pitch type as of Friday, 5/1. This is how we measure a pitcher’s out rate performance.
- Fastball – 16.5%
- Cutter – 15.3%
- Sinker – 17.2%
- Splitter – 20.4%
- Slider – 17.9%
- Sweeper – 17.9%
- Curveball – 16.6%
- Changeup – 19.1%
A few notable starting pitchers sit atop the leaderboards for each pitch (min. 40 pitches thrown), including
- Payton Tolle – Fastball 25.7%
- Shane Baz – Cutter 23.9%
- Ranger Suarez – Sinker 25.3%
- Zack Littell – Splitter 27.5%
- David Peterson – Slider 29.3%
- Jameson Taillon – Sweeper 31.7%
- Joe Ryan – Curveball 31.7%
- Logan Gilbert – Changeup 30.2%
Fastball Out% Highlight
We highlight fastball Out% because pitchers that can use their fastball to induce outs have a leg up on pitchers that just use it as a set-up pitch. Pitchers that can locate it well and use it at the right time to induce outs, while also possessing secondaries with high out rates, tend to perform better in ERA. This is a major reason why Paul Skenes is doing so well this season. His fastball’s Out rate sits at an impressive 20.9%, with a 19% Good Out rate. Plus, he features three other pitches with above-average Out rates.
One thing to note is that most of Skenes’ pitches are above average or elite in terms of pitch quality, according to PLV. Here is a breakdown:
Notice, his fastball is not even his best pitch. It still ties his splitter (or splinker, whatever you want to call it) in Out rate, and grades above average. It is also a huge asset for him in getting batters out.
Take a look at his fastball-specific pitch quality, and you will see why it performs so well:
Things that are elite about this pitch include its velocity, rise, horizontal break, and location. Skenes also gets elite extension on this pitch, so it feels even faster to batters, giving them less time to react.
With the movement, batters have had major trouble making contact. His fastball has generated a .111 BAA, a 27% whiff rate, a 36% strikeout rate, and a 26% putaway rate. Among the pitches in his arsenal, those rank best, second best, best, and second best, respectively.
Skenes’ splitter and sinker have also looked great this year. His ability to get batters out with his fastball and multiple secondaries will keep him near the top of any scoring format player rater.
An Out Rate Pitcher to Target
It is finally time to highlight Jameson Taillon specifically. He owns the league’s best Out rate on a sweeper at 31.7%, tied with Joe Ryan’s curveball for the highest Out rate on any pitch among starting pitchers who have thrown a pitch at least 40 times.
Making this sweeper even more impressive is its 29% Good Out rate, meaning Taillon has earned nearly all of the outs on this pitch. He has not had to rely on insane defensive efforts to get batters out with it. Taillon’s sweeper has generated a 35% strikeout rate, the best among his arsenal, and possesses a .135 BAA, a 29% whiff rate, and a 31% putaway rate. PLV loves this pitch too:
Even though he throws it with below-average velocity, his extension makes up for it, as does some impressive horizontal break. Elite location has also helped Taillon execute this pitch, giving it an above-average PLV grade. Be glad that you do not have to face his sweeper, or you may look like this:
Jameson Taillon, Filthy 79mph Sweeper. 😷 pic.twitter.com/kOao4JSJTQ
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 18, 2026
Taillon’s sinker also grades above average in Out rate, but his pitch quality suggests that a few other of his pitches may end up improving their Out rates with better sequencing, like his changeup, cutter, and fastball.
His cutter and fastball were both above-average out pitches last season, along with his sweeper, slider, and curveball. If he can turn one more of those pitches into a legitimate out pitch this season, he could be in for a career year. He is a pitcher to go out and add or trade for right now before his value starts to rise.
An Out Rate Pitcher to Avoid
Connelly Early has some nice surface stats, like a 3.79 ERA, to go along with two wins and two quality starts. Underneath, though, are some worrying data points, including having zero pitches with an above-average Out rate. On top of that, his Lucky Out rate on his curve and sinker makes up two-thirds of those outs.
Early’s BABIP and strand rate also leave some clues that he may have pitched into some luck. His .263 BABIP suggests he has been slightly fortunate, especially when factoring in a 19% line-drive rate and a 49% pull-rate allowed. Early has also allowed a ridiculously high 14% barrel rate, meaning batters are getting a hold of the ball against him, but somehow they are turning into outs. He owns an 81% left-on-base rate, which is likely to regress.
If Early had better strikeout stuff or stronger command, then the contact and left-on-base metrics would be easier to overlook, but he has just a 7.8 K/9 rate with a 4.2 BB/9 rate, and would rank among the worst-15 pitchers in K-BB% if he qualified. Outside of his changeup and slider, Early’s PLV is not doing him any favors either:
Early’s closest pitch to being above average in Out rate is his changeup, his second-best pitch in quality. However, he appears not to be sequencing it well, considering batters have tagged it for a .273 BAA and it has just a 13% putaway rate.
One major change from last season for Early is that his location has been awful. His Location+ dropped from 109 last season to 96 this season. His changeup is the only pitch with above-average location this year.
Early has a lot to figure out if he is to maintain his ERA, but if he doesn’t sequence better or locate better, that ERA is in danger of falling off a cliff. His pitch quality and “luck” metrics suggest regression is on the way, which reflects in his 4.72 xFIP and 4.64 SIERA.
It is time for fantasy managers to sell Early as high as you can.
Other Out Rate Pitchers to Buy/Add
- Michael McGreevy
- Michael Wacha
- Sonny Gray
- Parker Messick
- Tomoyuki Sugano
- Nathan Eovaldi
- Ranger Suarez
- Max Meyer
- Janson Junk
- Shane McClanahan
Other Out Rate Pitchers to Sell/Drop
