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Out% for Fantasy Baseball Week 22

Taylor Tarter breaks down the Out% leaderboard for Week 22

Taylor Tarter
Fantasy 8/19/2024

In this week’s Out% update, Sonny Gray’s sweeper continues to be the league’s best out pitch. It has a 34.2% Out Rate, which means he is getting an out on his sweeper more than a third of the time that he throws it. That is 16% higher than league average Out% for sweepers, and 5.8% higher than the next best overall Out Rate on any pitch.

The other pitches in the top 10 of Out% include sweepers from Mitch Keller and Bryan Hudson. Derek Law’s slider, changeups from Grayson Rodriguez and Jason Adam, and splitters from Mark Leiter Jr., Reed Garrett, Bryce Miller, and Justin Martinez also land in the top-10 overall.

Below are the individual pitches, the top performers in Out%, and a few notes on some of the pitchers who are performing well and those who are struggling. You can find more information in our weekly Out% Google Sheet.

Average Out%

Here are the average Out Rates for each pitch. We will use this to measure how well a pitcher has performed versus the league average. They will likely fluctuate slightly from week to week.

Fastball (FF) – 16.6%

Cutter (FC) – 16.5%

Sinker (SI) – 17.9%

Splitter (FS) – 20.7%

Slider (SL) – 18.2%

Curveball (CU) – 17%

Sweeper (ST) – 18.4%

Changeup (CH) – 19.6%

Fastball Out% Leaders

As I review the Out% leaderboard for each pitch, please note that they are based on pitchers who have thrown a league-average amount of pitches for each pitch. This helps separate starters from most relievers.

The link between ERA and Out% continues to track, especially for pitchers with elite fastball Out%. All of the top-10 pitchers in fastball Out% possess an ERA better than league average except for Jalen Beeks, Frankie Montas and Bowden Francis.

Fastball Out% Leaders (16.6% League Average)

Shota Imanaga has had one of the most effective fastballs basically all season when it comes to getting batters out. According to our PLV Leaderboard, it is the second-best fastball in the league overall, behind only Andrew Kittredge. Imanaga touts a .229 batting average against on his fastball. Among pitchers who have thrown a fastball at least 750 times, Imanaga is the only one to rank top-12 in both horizontal and vertical movement. He gets elite induced vertical break and arm side break, while also locating the ball extremely well with a 106 plvLoc+. Overall, he has a 5.60 PLV, which grades as a Quality Pitch. He also uses some deception in his windup, considering he averages under 92 MPH on the pitch. Here is a look at how he fools batters with his fastball and why it has been such a great out pitch:

Here are some noteworthy pitchers whose fastballs have not been effective this season.

Cutter, Sinker, and Splitter Out% Leaders

Some of the pitchers below toss these pitches in addition to their fastball. Others use these pitches in lieu of a fastball. Pitchers who have above average Out% on these pitches and fastballs are definitely pitchers to target.

Cutter Out% Leaders (16.5% League Average)

Sinker Out% Leaders (17.9% League Average)

Splitter Out% Leaders (20.7% League Average)

Jameson Taillon has been solid this season, and a major reason has been that he possesses multiple above average out pitches. His sweeper and curveball are above average in Out%, but so is his cutter. It ranks as the sixth-best cutter overall on our PLV leaderboard and grades as a Quality Pitch. Taillon’s bread and butter with his cutter have been location and horizontal movement. It owns a 108 plvLoc+, and ranks eighth in horizontal movement versus league average among pitchers who have thrown a cutter at least 250 times. Check it out here:

Brandon Pfaadt’s sweeper and fastball rank above league average in Out%, but he has an extremely effective out pitch in his sinker as well. Pfaadt does not induce many whiffs with the pitch. In fact, he has the 11th-lowest whiff rate among pitchers who have thrown a sinker in at least 150 PAs. However, he has the highest putaway rate, according to the same parameters. A major reason his sinker has been so effective as an out pitch is due to its zero degree launch angle, which likely has led to a great deal of ground outs. Here is how it looks:

Tanner Houck has maintained one of the best splitters this season according to Out%. It ranks fourth on the PLV leaderboard for splitters, and digging into the data, it is clear why his splitter is so good. Among pitchers who have thrown a splitter in at least 50 PAs, Houck’s ranks first in Statcast Run Value. Among pitchers who have thrown at least 250 splitters, Houck is the only one to rank top-5 in both vertical and horizontal movement versus league average. It has a .194 batting average against, a -6 degree launch angle, and an elite 105 plvLoc+. So, not only does it move well, but he locates it well too, both of which make it an incredibly difficult pitch to hit and one of the best out pitches in the league (especially against lefties like this):

For pitchers without a four-seamer, this is also a good place to look for how well pitchers are doing. Here are a few pitchers whose cutters, sinkers, and splitters have been lacking.

Slider, Curveball, and Sweeper Out% Leaders

Below, you will find pitchers with some of the best breaking pitches in the league. These pitchers are using their breaking pitches to induce whiffs, strikeouts, and grounders on weak contact. The data from the offseason showed that the more a pitcher throws an elite breaking pitch, the better, so these are pitchers who have thrown an above-league-average amount of each pitch.

Slider Out% Leaders (18.2% League Average)

Curveball Out% Leaders (17% League Average)

Sweeper Out% Leaders (18.4% League Average)

After struggling last season, Dylan Cease has had a bounce-back campaign in 2024 thanks in large part to what may be the best slider in baseball. It has a .161 BAA, a 44% whiff rate, a 40% strikeout rate, and a 25% putaway rate. Among the 47 pitchers who have thrown at least 100 sliders, none can claim better numbers in all four categories. In fact, using the same parameters, Cease is the only pitcher to rank top-10 in each of those metrics. There are several elements that make Cease’s slider so good including above average velocity, arm-side break, elite location (109 plvLoc+), and a high spin rate. Here is a look at it from earlier this season:

Blake Snell owns arguably the league’s best curveball, and the league’s most effective curveball at inducing outs. It ranks eighth on the PLV leaderboard and grades as a Quality pitch. This season, 65 pitchers have thrown a curveball in at least 50 PAs. Only Ben Brown, Tyler Glasnow, and Snell rank top-10 in batting average against, whiff%, K%, and putaway%. No pitchers can claim better numbers in all four categories than Snell, whose curveball has a .091 BAA, a 47% whiff rate, a 49% K rate, and a 29% putaway rate. Snell leans on horizontal movement to induce those whiffs, like this one that earns an absurd swinging strikeout against Shohei Ohtani:

Another of the league’s best pitches this season in many categories is Mitch Keller’s sweeper. It is the 15th best sweeper on our PLV leaderboard, grading as a Quality pitch. Keller has a .200 BAA, a 24% whiff rate, a 27% K rate, and a 20% putaway rate. Only Sonny Gray, Brandon Pfaadt, and Sean Manaea can claim better numbers in each category among pitchers who have thrown a sweeper in at least 100 PAs. Its most effective characteristics, though, are its above average velocity and elite horizontal movement. Both elements help get it by batters as seen here:

Here are a few pitchers whose sliders, curveballs, and sweepers have been lacking.

Changeup Out% Leaders – 19.6% League Average

Similar to breaking pitches, pitchers who can throw an offspeed offering with a high Out% will often find success. Even better are pitchers with an offspeed pitch and a breaking pitch that can induce outs. Here is the changeup leaderboard:

Changeup Out% Leaders (19.6% League Average)

Grayson Rodriguez’s changeup is insanely filthy, ranking among the league’s best nearly all season. Rodriguez gets elite extension on his changeup, which helps to fool batters, as does its vertical movement which ranks top-20 among pitchers who have thrown a changeup at least 250 times. Rodriguez’s changeup possesses a .161 BAA, a 34% whiff rate, a 32% K rate, and a 25% putaway rate. Among pitchers who have thrown a changeup in at least 100 PAs, only Bailey Ober’s is better across the board. Here is a look at Rodriguez’s changeup:

Here are some pitchers whose changeups have not performed well:

Pitchers to Target Based on Out%

Here are a few pitchers that I would try to acquire based on their Out% data. These are pitchers who are successful at getting outs in multiple ways with multiple pitches. Since the trade deadline has passed in many fantasy leagues, these are a few pitchers to target on waivers.

  1. Nick Martinez
  2. Luis Ortiz
  3. Michael Lorenzen
  4. Brandon Pfaadt
  5. Jameson Taillon
  6. Luis Severino
  7. Paul Blackburn
  8. Michael Wacha
  9. Jose Quintana
  10. Jake Irvin
  11. Gavin Stone
  12. Kyle Gibson

Taylor Tarter

Taylor is a fantasy baseball champion that has been playing for over a decade. Tune into his podcast, Fastball Fantasy Baseball, every Wednesday for in depth analysis making sabermetrics friendly to the everyday fantasy player.

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