It’s that time of year again, that hypothetical-but-not-really-halfway point of the season otherwise known as the All-Star break, when I issue my traditional “report cards” for the Pittsburgh Pirates, the first time this time-honored custom, highly anticipated by dozens, has graced the bandwidth occupied by Pitcher List. After all, with four days without meaningful baseball, we have to write about something.
At the break, the Pirates are 50-47, sitting in fourth place in an unexpectedly tough National League Central Division where four of the five teams post winning records. The Pirates have the same chance of catching the first-place Milwaukee Brewers as I have with Sydney Sweeney, but more importantly, they’re only two games out of the final wild card spot.
The 2026 Pirates have outscored opponents by 516-472. For those who believe in such things, the Pirates’ Pythagorean won-lost record, a metric developed by Bill James, is 52-45, which would tie them with the Miami Marlins for the final wild card spot. The Pythagorean winning percentage is meant to determine what a team’s record should be based on its run differential and thus is intended as a measure of how much good or bad luck has come into play. It’s determined as follows:
(Runs scored)1.83 divided by [(Runs scored)1.83 + (Runs allowed)1.83]
The Pirates’ records (the real one and the one developed by Pythagoras James) could be better with even an average bullpen. Without any further ado, as the saying goes, let’s get to those report cards. These are issued in no particular logical order. So, let’s start with that bullpen since I brought up the subject.
The Bullpen
The Pirates enter the break with 16 blown saves, tied with five other teams for the fourth-highest in the majors. No team is going to get this far into the season with no blown saves. While no bullpen can be expected to be perfect, it’s reasonable to expect them to be average. The major league average for blown saves is 13.3. Since no pitcher in baseball history at any level has ever recorded a fraction of a save (although I’m sure some metrics guru will come up with something in that area someday), let’s say 13 is the average. Even an average number of blown saves would swing the Pirates’ record by six games and have them sitting pretty at 56-41, or 58-39 on a Pythagorean basis.
Pirates relievers have a collective ERA of 4.48, better than only seven major league clubs. They’ve stranded 68.9 percent of inherited runners; only two teams are worse in that department. A dive into the metrics indicates that the bullpen deserves its less-than-elite ranking. They’ve posted a 4.34 xERA (ninth-worst in the majors), a 4.46 xFIP (also ninth-worst), and a 32.9 percent hard-hit rate (13th-worst). There’s simply no putting lipstick on this pig.
Last season, Isaac Mattson and Dennis Santana were reliable options for the eighth and ninth innings, respectively. They’ve pitched below expectations so far this season. Mattson had to spend time at Triple-A Indianapolis to right himself, and Santana (5.80 ERA) and free agent acquisition Gregory Soto (4.05 ERA), who’ve combined for six blown saves, have taken turns pitching themselves out of the closer’s role. Carmen Mlodzinsky was moved from the rotation to the bullpen, where he’s well-suited, but rather than pitching in late-inning, high-leverage situations, he was limited to piggybacking starter Jared Jones at first. Recently, manager Don Kelly has wisely based his reliever choices on matchups rather than set roles. That’s a better approach, and the bullpen has been a little better in recent days. Regardless, this is an area that needs to be shored up at the trade deadline. Grade: F.
The General Manager
What a difference a year makes. Given the biggest payroll budget he’s ever had to work with in Pittsburgh, general manager Ben Cherington has assembled a roster that’s light-years better than anything seen during his tenure. A comparison of this season’s Opening Day lineup with last year’s tells the whole story.
Cherington’s major offseason moves consisted of trading pitcher Mike Burrows to the Houston Astros in a three-team deal in which he acquired Lowe, Jake Mangum, and Mason Montgomery from the Tampa Bay Rays, and signing free agents O’Hearn, Ozuna, and Soto. There were also in-season deals that sent expendable pitcher Kyle Nicolas to the Cincinnati Reds for versatile Tyler Callihan, and last Saturday, Jacob Gonzalez and Brandon Eisert were obtained from the Chicago White Sox for the Pirates’ compensation round pick. Cherington’s marching orders were to improve the offense, and did he ever! On July 7, O’Hearn’s team-record-setting three-home-run game gave the Pirates 117 homers for the season, equaling last year’s total. Pittsburgh’s .263 batting average leads the majors, while its .768 OPS is second only to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Their 516 total runs also lead the major leagues, tied with the Washington Nationals. This, after scoring 583 runs in all of 2025, “good” for dead last. It’s been an astonishing worst-to-first turnaround.
In addition to principal owner Bob Nutting loosening the purse strings, Cherington laid some groundwork by unloading some salaries in Hayes, David Bednar, and Bailey Falter at last year’s trade deadline. Hayes was tied up with a burdensome multiyear contract that he hasn’t lived up to, while the latter two were due significant raises in arbitration. In hindsight, it would have been better to keep Bednar, currently with 18 saves and a $9 million salary, and eschew the disappointing Ozuna and his $12 million commitment. But Cherington couldn’t have foreseen the sharp decline in performance from Santana and Mattson.
Credit Cherington’s drafting, too, for getting the Pirates this far. He drafted Paul Skenes and Konnor Griffin when the draft gurus’ conventional wisdom said to go in other directions.
Furthermore, the organization is in good shape, with FanGraphs now ranking the Pirates’ farm system at the top in all of baseball. Cherington probably wishes he’d done more for the bullpen and handled the divorce from franchise icon McCutchen better. But overall, Cherington, who’s signed through 2027, appears to have earned an extension. Grade: A-.
Starting Pitchers
In Pittsburgh, the two questions on everybody’s minds are what’s wrong with Skenes and how am I going to navigate the Parkway East closure? As to the latter question, just work remotely, where the boss can’t catch you reading Pitcher List when you should be working. As for Skenes, a deep dive into his issues is beyond the scope of this article. That’s already been done on these pages, more capably than I could, by Nate Schwartz. But let’s stick our toes in the water for a second. While Skenes was in the midst of an alarming stretch that saw the Pirates lose eight consecutive starts of his, he was also getting poor support, both offensively and defensively. Indeed, there are several peripheral stats that indicate he’s pitched better than his 8-8 record and 3.57 ERA: a 1.025 WHIP, 2.88 FIP, 2.74 xERA, and 3.19 xFIP. Opponents are hitting just .216/.269/.357 against him, and their 37.6 hard-hit rate is lower than last year’s 40.3. And yet, something seemed off during that rough stretch, as if a killer instinct was lacking. All of his problems can’t be blamed on poor support, and indeed, his 0.9 WPA suggests that when he does give up a hit or a walk, it’s coming at the wrong times. There’s talk around Pittsburgh, the city where everybody knows a guy who knows a guy who’s an insider, that he’s backing off his velocity. However, while his velocity is down a tick, the decrease isn’t significant.
Arguably, the Pirates’ best starter has been Braxton Ashcraft, who’s been named to the National League All-Star team in place of Skenes. The big right-hander is 9-3 with a 3.49 ERA and 1.112 WHIP. Moreover, he’s displayed what the old-timers used to call a “bulldog” mentality. That was on display at Citizens Bank Park on June 29. In the first three innings, he surrendered five runs to the Philadelphia Phillies. But when the Pirates scored two in the top of the fourth, Ashcraft began to smell a win, and was dominant for the next three innings, enabling the Pirates to rally and win, 11-7. Similarly, when Skenes gave up five early runs in Philly and the Pirates put a couple of runs on the scoreboard, he gave up three more runs and exited that game having given up eight runs in four innings. In any event, his two recent starts showed that the fire is back in Skenes.
Mlodzinski was arguably the Pirates’ third-best starter until it was decided he was needed in the bullpen. The Pirates won eight of his 11 starts. Veteran Mitch Keller’s performance has been alarming. Generally, he’s fallen into late-season slumps, but this year his “late season” began before the summer. On May 7, his ERA stood at 2.87. Then, his annual late-season swoon began early; since then, his ERA has risen to 5.14. He enters the break with the worst 11-game stretch of his career. Highly touted rookie Bubba Chandler has flashed his potential but has been inconsistent. Jones is still getting up to speed after missing over a year due to elbow surgery. The six perfect innings he tossed against the Atlanta Braves on July 8 were encouraging, but he was pulled after 77 pitches, and it was the first time he pitched into the sixth inning.
Overall, Pirates starters have posted a not-too-bad 4.20 ERA, which places them 12th in MLB. While it seems like a strange thing to say about a 24-year-old, they need Skenes to become the Skenes of “old.” Keller needs to step up his game and show that he’s worthy of having begun the season as the No. 2 starter. More consistency from Chandler would help, but more importantly, the Pirates need to decide what to do about Jones if he can’t pitch deeper into games. It’s easy to see why they believe in his future as a starter, but then again, this isn’t a rebuilding year. How long can they wait for him? Grade: C+.
The Infield
Just about every team in MLB has a gripe or two about an All-Star snub, and one of the most egregious of all was the omission of Lowe. With 21 home runs, he has a chance to become the first Pirate to reach the 40 mark since Willie Stargell did it in 1973. Lowe’s .803 OPS ranks fourth among all qualifying MLB second basemen. He came to Pittsburgh with a reputation as a poor fielder, but so far, he’s been credited with seven Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA) and an equal number of Defensive Runs Saved. Another pleasant surprise defensively has been third baseman Gonzales. The deposed second baseman had only 11 innings of major league experience at third entering this season, but he’s playing it the way you’d want one whose .308 batting average is third in the NL to play it.
Before going on the injured list, first baseman Horwitz posted a 280/.386/.455 slash mark, and lately had settled in at leadoff, where his on-base skills play well. All eyes have been on wunderkind shortstop Griffin, 20, who came into 2026 as the No. 1 prospect in baseball. He’s hit .276/.332/.404 while showing surprising speed. He, too, is on the IL, with an expected return in September. Cherington might look for a veteran shortstop at the trade deadline despite the recent addition of Gonzalez. Meanwhile, fans are seeing more of their favorite whipping boy, Triolo, than they’d like. But his .233 average is about as much as one can expect from a backup infielder, and certainly, a team leading the majors in runs can carry a glove-first shortstop in its lineup. Grade: A.
The Outfield
The Pirates’ outfielders have pulled their weight offensively, too. Hitting in a strong lineup for the first time in his career has rejuvenated Reynolds. His .878 OPS is fifth-best among NL outfielders, and defensively, reaching over PNC Park’s short left-field wall and robbing home runs has seemingly been a nightly occurrence. O’Hearn had a historic night on July 7 against the Braves, when he hit three home runs to go with a club-record 10 RBI. He’s hitting .288/.351/.487, and his 16 homers are second on the team to Lowe. Putting him in right field was supposed to be a risky proposition, and while he won’t win a Gold Glove Award, he hasn’t hurt the Pirates there, either.
Cruz, who has been on the IL since June 8, may never become a great center fielder, but at least he’s been “playing the game” defensively, e.g., he’s not throwing home when he has a slim-to-none chance of nabbing the runner in situations where the score dictates he throw to another base. At bat, he looked like he was finally putting it together offensively with 14 home runs, 21 steals, and an .822 OPS in 64 games. In the offseason, he worked on his biggest weakness, left-handing pitching, and has hit lefties to the tune of .312/.361/.506. With Cruz out and O’Hearn taking over first base with Horwitz out, the scrappy Mangum and rookie Esmerlyn Valdez have filled in admirably. The powerful Valdez looks wise beyond his 22 years and has 10 home runs in 94 at-bats, the fastest a Pirates rookie ever reached that level. He’s must-see TV. Grade: A.
The Designated Hitter
That’s a good segue into Ozuna. Because he’s produced a woeful .205/.288/.335 stat line, translating into a 71 OPS+, he’s appeared in just 61 games. Kelly has frequently used the designated hitter spot to give his regulars a day off in the field. Here, however, we’ll grade this spot considering only Ozuna. For the first time since PNC Park was constructed, the Pirates are overly balanced in left-handed hitters to take advantage of the short right field. Ozuna was signed to give the lineup a right-handed-hitting threat, but it hasn’t worked out. The Pirates need it to work out, as Valdez is unlikely to keep up his current pace. One wonders whether another designated hitter is on Cherington’s shopping list. Grade: F.
The Catchers
Rodriguez, who also finds himself on the IL as of July 8, seized the No. 1 catcher’s spot by out-hitting Davis. In just 35 games, Rodriguez has hit five home runs and has posted an OPS of .858. Davis, the first overall pick in 2021, is hitting just .166 with a 67 OPS+ and may never live up to the hype as a hitter. He’s certainly developed into a catcher, however. He’s been credited with four FRAA and four DRS, while leading the majors with an astounding 54.2 caught-stealing percentage, more than 30 points higher than the major league average. Davis has been Skenes’s personal catcher, but with Rodriguez out, he’ll be everybody’s catcher for a while. Despite a batting average so low that he needs a telescope and a compass to find the Mendoza Line, Davis brings defensive value, and that’s not the worst thing for a team that’s scored 516 runs. Rodriguez isn’t expected to be out for a long time. Grade: B-.
The Manager
Among Pirates fans, Kelly is as polarizing a topic as Triolo or Davis. The common complaints: He doesn’t stick with a set lineup, he picks the wrong reliever too often, and his team doesn’t play “small ball.” There’s no correlation between a set lineup and winning, and in any event, it’s hard to be unhappy with the offensive production that’s come from the various lineups. Sometimes the bullpen moves are puzzling, but they’ve performed so poorly as a unit that often Kelly doesn’t have many choices. He can’t pitch Mlodzinski for three innings every night. As for small ball, mark this writer down as one who doesn’t believe in the sacrifice bunt or the “productive out.” The Pirates have successfully bunted four times with a man on first base. On two of those occasions, the runner scored. On one of those, there were two home runs later in the inning, and the bunt may have actually cost the Pirates a run. So much for productive outs.
On many teams, salary determines playing time. Credit Kelly for keeping the nonproductive Ozuna on the bench in favor of better hitters. That’s a hard sell to the owner and GM. Furthermore, the team has shown a lot of fire, something that couldn’t be said of its approach under Kelly’s predecessor, Derek Shelton.
Anybody can second-guess a manager after the fact and say he should have brought in this pitcher or pinch-hit for that batter. However, the bottom line is this: If you knew before the season started that the bullpen would blow 16 saves so far and lose eight consecutive Skenes starts, that Cruz, Griffin, and Horwitz would spend significant time on the IL, and that Ozuna would struggle to stay above .200, would you have expected the Pirates to enter the break three games over .500 and two games back in the wild card race? Me neither. Grade: B.
The Coaches
It’s not your father’s baseball anymore. In my formative years, teams carried four or five coaches, who mostly served as drinking buddies the manager knew in his playing days. Today, the Pirates have 15 coaches, or .577 coaches for each player on the active roster. (The 1979 World Series champion Pirates didn’t even have a bullpen coach.) Since I have no idea what most of these guys do, I’ll discuss only the ones who are most visible to the fans, with the caveat that the person most responsible for a player’s performance is the player. Hitting coach Matt Hague, much maligned last year, isn’t the subject of many complaints this season. Under first-year pitching coach Bill Murphy, few pitchers have made significant progress over last year, and many have regressed. Third base coach Tony Beasley, also in his first year, hasn’t been noticed much, which is probably a good thing for a third base coach. Tarrik Brock is the first base coach. Yogi Berra was once asked what a first base coach does. He said that when the runner gets to first, he tells him, “Don’t get picked off.” Shout-out to local kid Cam Balego, who’s living the dream as the Pirates’ bullpen catcher; it’s the feel-good story of the year. Murphy drags this grade down. Grade: C+.
