Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Wednesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
George Kirby (SEA) vs NYM (L) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 89 pitches.
You drafted George Kirby envisioning an SP 1.5, or, at the very least, an SP 2. However, after a start @TEA against the lowly Mets of 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 89 pitches (L), Kirby has disappointed to the tune of a 4.04 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and just under a 20% strikeout rate. This isn’t what I signed up for.
What is going on? First of all, this particular outing was one where he was Singled Out terribly in the fourth, where three sweepers and an inside sinker found grass + a run came home on a double-steal with two outs (unearned). The biggest driver of Kirby’s struggles this year has been his monstrous 9.5 hit/9, though if he were able to put more batters away and earn more whiffs, it would reduce the number of balls in play, lowering the chances for a hit to exist in the first place.
Yes, that means this all comes down to strikeouts, which then comes down to the performance of his breaking balls and avoiding early contact with heaters. Kirby’s biggest area for growth is sweeper consistency to RHB, which failed to land in its ideal down-and-away location once again. Those three hits in the fourth all came on sweepers over the plate, and if he could nail the pitch like he does to LHB, this outing would have been far different.
That’s not to say it’s the only issue. He’s the perfect example to showcase the difference between CONTROL and COMMAND. Kirby holds a sub 6% walk rate (elite control!), but he doesn’t locate well inside the zone with his full arsenal (questionable command!). It sure feels like Kirby should have the latter skill, but I’m simply not seeing it.
I’m classifying Kirby as a Holly. I don’t believe him to continue at a 19.8% strikeout rate (I know, I used a decimal! Sue me) due to a low per-batter putaway rate at 38%, while his 9.5 hit/9 is sure to come down in time, even if he’s not completely nailing his arsenal. That should bring his ERA and WHIP back to digestible levels, while we wait for a true step forward in his precision before he can apply for an AGA label once again. (View Game Card)
Let’s see how every other SP did Wednesday:
Logan Webb (SFG) @ MIL (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 95 pitches.
This is the first goose egg of the season for Webb and it sure feels good to see it again. It’s classic Webb with low changeups and high cutters (Canibal McSanchez!) to LHB + back-door sinkers to RHB as Koufax smiled with a twinkle in his eye. I always knew he was Santa Claus! Uhhhhhh, sure kid. (View Game Card)
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) @ ARI (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 89 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Sure, why not. Let’s make your ERA lower than your 0.79 WHIP at a stupid 0.74 mark across 61.0 IP and ten starts. Who is your Cy Young winner today? Jay Mis or Ohtani? Oh jeez. I wonder if it’ll be an interesting one with a debate of volume/strikeouts vs. ratios. Anyway, it won’t happen because Ohtani’s 0.30 HR/9 and unsustainable 4.4 hit/9 are not going to last a full year. (View Game Card)
Payton Tolle (BOS) vs BAL (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 99 pitches.
Even though it’s 60% four-seamers, he’s returning 35% sinkers and cutters, too, turning this arsenal into a Ras Pack. It’s all the rage these days, and I’m totally fine with it when he’s pumping each for strikes over 67% of the time, regardless of location. Remember when I was more into Prielipp than Tolle? HA Ha ha ha ha ha… (View Game Card)
Erick Fedde (CHW) @ MIN (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 61 pitches.
This is a Gold Star and so clearly a Birthday Party. Wait, we’re a month early, isn’t that on July 4th? (View Game Card)
Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) vs SDP (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 84 pitches.
Aces gonna earn a King Cole and make us groan by allowing a single ER. HOW DARE YOU. His sinker is now up at 96 mph (remember when it was 94 mph in the opening weeks?) + an 86% strike rate on 36 sinkers. Whoa. (View Game Card)
Max Meyer (MIA) @ WSN (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 92 pitches.
YES. We saw a poor outing last time out against the Mets and I was worried he was losing a little bit of his mojo. Well, the sweeper went 52% strikes as his most thrown pitch. Okay, fair. He also held the 17″ vert we love on the road (not domed = less vert help) and even had some whiffs on the changeup, too. Now it’s ARI, @PHI, SFG and we’re grooving. (View Game Card)
Freddy Peralta (NYM) @ SEA (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 101 pitches.
It’s nice to see Peralta showcase his worth with his first sub-3.00 ERA start since May 6th in Coors. The WHIP still hurts, though, and you have to go back to April 18th for a start with a 1.00 WHIP or better – he’s done that just twice all year. Yikes. Four-seamers up, changeups and sliders down, and thankfully the Mariners went fishing at the right times + four-seamers came through when he needed them to prevent a walk-pocolypse with a 46% strike rate across 48 changeups and sliders. (View Game Card)
Walker Buehler (SDP) @ PHI (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 86 pitches.
He’s now averaged 2 ER on the dot across his last five starts, and maybe that means we should give him a look. Then again, he’s had just one game returning at least 10 whiffs in a start. Then again, he sat 1-2 ticks up on his heaters, now at 95/96 mph. THEN AGAIN, he went 0/41 whiffs between those four-seamers and sinkers. FINE. I’m not starting him in Cincy – I don’t believe he’s this good of a hit-suppresser all of a sudden. (View Game Card)
Andre Pallante (STL) vs TEX (W) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 85 pitches.
Ohhhh dang. Is it happening? Ehhh, not really. Pallante’s slider failed to earn a whiff against RHB, and he didn’t get inside to LHB with the four-seamer (and the one he did resulted in a hit to Nimmo. Funny how that works…). However, the Rangers don’t have a ton of great LHB at the moment and Pallante’s RHB approach of sliders away + sinkers in was able to lead the way. It’s also nice to see an extra tick of velo on both his sinker (96 mph!) and slider, the latter now at 88/89 mph with near gyro movement. That breaker is his best pitch. We like best things being bester. Better. No, BESTER. (View Game Card)
Robert Gasser (MIL) vs SFG (L) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 83 pitches.
Gasser suddenly appeared like a random dream you mean to talk to your therapist about, and he generated his best line of the year, with a four-seamer that earned 7/22 whiffs as it ate up LHB up-and-away at 92 mph. Wait, that doesn’t sound right. Oops, I meant to say he ate up Rafael Devers four times, with a random whiff against three others. It’s important to note how one batter can greatly impact a rate stat. Outside of Devers being Devers, I wasn’t impressed with Gasser’s cutter, sweeper, sinker, or changeup command. Wait, that’s the rest of his arsenal. Is it? I didn’t notice. Nothing gets past this guy. With PHI, @ATL, @CIN up next if he were to stick around in the rotation, I’m a passer on Gasser. I highly recommend you never say that again. Noted. (View Game Card)
Andrew Alvarez (WSN) vs MIA (ND) – 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 82 pitches.
I dig how Alvarez is doing everything he can with his arsenal by leaning on his slider and curveball a ton at 65% usage between them, which combined for roughly 19% SwStr and a 64% strike rate. Sadly, his four-seamer is still very hittable and unreliable, and he needs to figure out how to navigate through at-bats with his heaters before becoming a proper fantasy arm. You can earn whiffs on breakers, sure, but you need foundation strikes to make them count and get you through innings quickly. (View Game Card)
Troy Melton (DET) @ TBR (W) – 8.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 94 pitches.
I’m so glad the Tigers are letting Melton cook. That’s fifteen innings across his last two games, letting him come out for the eighth after tossing 82 pitches through seven. His final out took an excruciating seven pitches to complete, preventing a possible sub-90 pitch count through eight. I know. There’s CGSHO potential in Melton, given his incredible control and lovely mix of four-seamers, sliders, and cutters, while the sinker, curveball, and splitter are still getting their feet wet. He’s a full send against the Twins and Astros, especially when his four-seamer is climbing to 16″ of vert at his relatively flat 1.2 HAVAA at the top of the zone. And one more thing – his final pitch was the second hardest of the game at 97.3 mph, just behind the 97.4 mph hit in the second inning. Gotta love it. (View Game Card)
Stephen Kolek (KCR) @ CIN (ND) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 96 pitches.
Now that the fatigued start is behind him, Kolek got back on the horse and overcame a tough matchup in Great American Small Park. Huge props for this one and I regret being so harsh on him after his previous outing and this matchup ahead. That said, this was the best slider he’s had all year, and how was I supposed to know he’d sling the fella like a yoyo-champion? That’s right, WALK THE DOG. He’ll host the Rangers, Astros, and Cardinals moving forward and it’s hard not to raise him into solid Toby territory akin to his teammate Michael Wacha. (View Game Card)
Chase Burns (CIN) vs KCR (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 98 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. That’s a 2.05 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 30% strikeout rate with just under six innings per start. Mmmmmm. A Gallows Pole is no surprise, but I am shocked to see a horrific 48% strike rate on his slider to LHB. Gotta fix that if you want to go more than six innings. (View Game Card)
Grant Holmes (ATL) vs TOR (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 89 pitches.
Oh snap, nicely done REB! If only every game you could boast a 53% O-Swing on your slider and a four-seamer with a 44% CSW. You know, those two marks across 70% of your pitches usually returns a true stud outing, not one with only four strikeouts and a 1.17 WHIP. Just saying. (View Game Card)
Colin Rea (CHC) vs ATH (ND) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 69 pitches.
I wonder if we see another Rea start. Boyd could be back in about ten days and the Cubs can go four-man if they choose. I don’t think they should given Rea’s success, but if he sticks, it’ll be Coors next. Womp womp. But then the Giants if Boyd doesn’t come back as expected. The latter one I’m cool with as Rea’s befuddled the Athletics with a middling Ras Pack that now showcases four-seamers flirting with 96 mph (not 94/95), but I wouldn’t hold onto him for that chance. (View Game Card)
Walbert Ureña (LAA) vs COL (W) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 99 pitches.
Was it the prettiest? Nah. Is it a Bailey Special that we’ll take all day? Absolutely. This would have better if Ureña didn’t return a horrific 48% strike rate on his changeup, and let’s thank the sinker for being so dang accurate on the outside edge to LHB. It truly saved the day. Oh, and the sweeper is still highly erratic at just 7/15 strikes. Blegh. (View Game Card)
Gavin Williams (CLE) @ NYY (W) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 96 pitches.
He’s making a case for AGA and ran into a Careful, Icarus after getting pulled in the sixth and not having Cole’s bullpen to prevent an inherited run from scoring. Gavin’s high strike rates are still very much here…save for a 50% clip on his four-seamer. That he threw eight times. EIGHT. TIMES. That sinker is really taking over, at least for now, and I have to imagine it’s to surprise hitters who are expecting more four-seamers. I’ll make a wager with you that he’ll throw more four-seamers than sinkers to LHB in his repeat matchup against the Yankees next week. (View Game Card)
Paul Skenes (PIT) @ HOU (ND) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 109 pitches.
Aces gonna get Singled Out in the third and fifth. Is it time for me to remove Skenes from the SP #1 spot? I can’t. It just feels wrong. Okay, he’ll get the Dodgers and Marlins next week. If he’s meh against either one, I’ll consider it. (View Game Card)
Chris Bassitt (BAL) @ BOS (L) – 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 56 pitches.
Bassitt left this one early with lower-back tightness. Honestly, he shouldn’t have been on your roster before this. I hope he gets better soon. (View Game Card)
Gerrit Cole (NYY) vs CLE (L) – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 83 pitches.
Yes, this was three HRs that did all the damage, but two strikeouts? Three whiffs?! This was a game where Cole simply did not have feel for his pitches and battled as much as he could, hoping the stuff would get him through it. And to be fair (to be faaaiiir), he almost completed a PQS with a solo shot in the sixth + two more baserunners before getting pulled (thank you Fernando for stranding both). Let’s not freak out now and expect Cole to take down LHB far easier in a repeat matchup against the Guardians next week. (View Game Card)
Zac Gallen (ARI) vs LAD (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 90 pitches.
Gallen has been rough and the Dodgers were not a squad you were starting him against. And still, a HAISTBMBWT?! with a 2.20 WHIP is brutal. (View Game Card)
Patrick Corbin (TOR) @ ATL (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 85 pitches.
It was Corbin against Hotlanta. Why did you expect your bread to get buttered?! (View Game Card)
MacKenzie Gore (TEX) @ STL (L) – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 100 pitches.
Man, I really wanted Gore to be on the up-and-up, but there were signs of smoke-and-mirrors last start that I didn’t act on enough. The 11/12 slider strikes with just one whiff should tell you how he’s not locating the offering down-and-gloveside as he should. And yet…huh. He was clearly Singled Out and the heater was spotted better than usual, the curve was hit-or-miss, and the cutter/sinker were solid. It’s really the slider holding things back + some bad luck. That’s…kinda good? And he heads to Kansas City for his next outing, which could be a decent play. Who knows what this HIPSTER will do. (View Game Card)
Taj Bradley (MIN) vs CHW (L) – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 5 BBs, 5 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 104 pitches.
Womp womp. That’s two straight clunkers after a fantastic outing in his Still ILL. The problem is clear – his secondary command is atrocious and his four-seamer was down the pipe or out of the zone to RHB, and scattered over the plate to LHB. This is the Bradley I feared we’d see. I cannot tell you this is what we’re destined to see all year now, but @DET next looks scary. Then again, it’s more about his own ability than the offense he faces, so flip a coin and good luck. (View Game Card)
Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) vs PIT (ND) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 83 pitches.
Blegh. He’s been so reliant on his curveball and its inefficiency led to four fastballs at the top of the zone getting hit in three-ball counts. When will the cutter reappear? The sweeper feel return? Hopefully this will be a wake-up call, and I hope the extension loss of two clicks doesn’t stick (7.2 instead of 7.4). (View Game Card)
Jeffrey Springs (ATH) @ CHC (ND) – 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 86 pitches.
No sunshine and rainbows for Springs in Wrigley, allowing two HRs as we get more proof that June is a horrible month to start pitchers among the ivy. You really don’t need to roster Springs and you’ll feel good that you don’t. (View Game Card)
Nick Martinez (TBR) vs DET (L) – 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 58 pitches.
Annnnnnd BOOM. There’s the regression to a 2.29 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and a 14.4% strikeout rate. HAISTBMBWT?! He simply threw a ton of pitches over the plate and they got shellacked. Do you drop now? I’d be willing to give him another shot hosting the Red Sox in Tampa (they’re poor against RHB), but it is the Dodgers after that. No bad call here. (View Game Card)
Michael Lorenzen (COL) @ LAA (L) – 3.1 IP, 8 ER, 10 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 85 pitches.
Even away from Coors, Lorenzen’s ERA found a way to balloon further, now to an 8.01 mark. Oh jeez. Pop quiz: One number is his WHIP, one is his HR/9, which is which? 1.99, 1.63. It doesn’t matter, the point has been made (Answer: WHIP, HR/9. I got you). (View Game Card)
Game of the Day
Jared Jones vs. Houston Astros – His stuff was unreal in his first start and I’m so curious if that was just adrenaline.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
