Spring Training has arrived and as I’ve been writing daily notes for myself to recap all spring training starting pitchers, I realized I should publish them on the site for quick access.
I’ll be livestreaming every morning 10am-12pm ET at playback.tv/pitcherlist as I watch all of the starts with y’all and answer all your fantasy baseball questions.
Major SP News To Know
Jake Odorizzi has signed a minor league deal with the Tampa Bay Rays. With Taj Bradley’s injury and Shane Baz expected to return in May, the Rays turned to their former stalwart of the rotation to fill in. I question how long he’ll be able to last early in the year as he ramps up – even though free agents have obviously been ramping up on their own as they wait to sign, it’s not the same as proper game action – but he should at least be expected to be used as an opener in traditional Tampa Bay fashion. Do we care for fantasy? Sadly, no.
Great news for Yankee fans: Gerrit Cole will not require Tommy John Surgery and is expected back in the rotation in 10-12 weeks. I personally read that as will be able to throw again instead of actually ramped up in full, making it a 3+ month wait for his return. Anticipate a July 1st return to action. It’s generally safe to be conservative on injury timelines and add a few weeks.
Expected Rotations By Team
Statcast Games – TV
NYM vs. STL
KCR vs. ARI
BOS vs. PHI
José Butto (NYM) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Velocity is still up over a tick to 95/96 on the four-seamer and 94/95 on the sinker, though they went 1/33 whiffs between them. The changeup is still the main weapon – 6/18 whiffs – and there is some value here is Butto finds his way into the rotation as a decent streamer. I think the command good enough there to make the sinker/change combo viable for 5+ frames against poor offenses.
Lance Lynn (STL) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. He’s at 92 mph on the four-seamer (more like a cutter than a true four-seamer, with his cutter acting more like a slider, FWIW) and still doing the things you know Lynn to do. Sooooo, you mean look decent sometimes when he gets away with the heater and terrible other times? Yeah, that’s about right.
Michael Wacha (KCR) – 3.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. 52% CSW changeup tells you the man is all good to go.
Tommy Henry (ARI) – 2.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks.Two first names, y’all.
Bryce Jarvis (ARI) – 3.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Hey, huge props here to Jarvis, who is executing the BSB with four-seamers up, sliders down, and changeups decently down. That slider is also coming in two ticks harder and looks pretty dang good, especially for a pitch that had a horrendous sub 50% strike rate last year. Wait, are you kind in on Jarvis now? Not really, but if he can execute like this then maybe there’s something here when he steps in for an injured starter this year (though the four-seamer shape is terrible). Remember, there’s very little SP depth in the minors for the Diamondbacks.
Josh Winckowski (BOS) – 3.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. He’s, what, the SP #7? #8? Let’s not do this.
Ranger Suárez (PHI) – 3.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks. The walks are a little annoying with his heaters missing a touch around the zone and curves often getting a little too low, but Suárez is dancing around the zone plenty, avoiding mistakes in the middle of the plate. He was also mentioned inside Taylor Tarter’s great OUT% article for his sinker and curve (they get outs!) and he’s still a decent streaming option in general. He often goes on a Vargas Rule run once a year, so be on the lookout when it happens.
Statcast Games – No TV
TOR vs. MIN
NYY vs. DET
BAL vs. PIT
Bowden Francis (TOR) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. Four-seamer was coming in at just 93 mph and with his first two starts expected to be against the Astros and Yankees, I’m electing to pass on Francis. It’s important you take fliers you can A) Get value on early and B) Discern in said start if they are worthwhile for your teams. If you’re rostering Francis and don’t even start him for at least ten days, why are you rostering him in a 12-teamer?
Wes Parsons (TOR) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. He’s throwing two ticks harder, up to 96 mph on a four-seamer that has a ton of extension and pretty flat release. Thing is, he doesn’t command it super well + he went 3/10 strikes with his slider. There’s some hope if he can wield his weapons with elegance, though I’m skeptical for now.
Bailey Ober (MIN) – 2.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Not a fun outing for Ober, who failed to have the same pitch separation we’ve seen from his four-seamer and changeup, with both converging over the middle of the plate instead of the lovely BSB he’s so good at. The cutter locations arm-side were still very present, though, and we’re still very much in…even if he sat 92 mph (not 93) in this one. Please get back to 93 mph, that was so cool, but fine, you were 91 mph last year, so at least we still have an improvement.
Marcus Stroman (NYY) – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. Blegh. Stroman was featuring a much slower breaker and splitter, while his sinker was 1-2 ticks down at just 90 mph. I’m not blaring the sirens for those reliant on Stroman as a solid volume arm throughout the year for the Yankees, though it’s something to watch for his next start. You should expect the velocity to return in his final tune up and if it’s not there at that point, then we might have a problem. But does velocity matter as much for a guy like Stroman? That’s not a bad point. Maybe he doesn’t need it as much if the movement and general command is still there?
Casey Mize (DET) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. His four-seamer is looking truly fantastic and I just wish he could be starting out of the gate. Maybe that’s still in the cards somehow and he’s still worth a flier in your drafts on the off-chance he actually does. He’s a command guy with a possibly elite four-seamer and a slider that can earn whiffs and strikes. What about the splitter? Ehhhh, 0/6 whiffs. Not sold that he has that one back yet, but I’ll take the well spotted fastball/slider with some occasional curves and splitter from Mize all day.
Grayson Rodriguez (BAL) – 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Has there been a pitcher I’ve flip-flopped more this pre-season than Grayson? I’m currently in a state of my eyes telling me he’s not a great command pitcher, which has me twisted up in knots as his four-seamer, change, and slider all look to fantastic offerings…if he can just locate consistently.
Marco Gonzales (PIT) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. He flipped curves and cutters into the zone with surprise heaters and got his changeup reasonably down. This is your typical streaming option at best and I can imagine if he has a hot start of games like this that people will be wondering if he’s returning to form. Narrator: He was not. Vargas Rule at best, with a much higher likelihood of someone you never consider.
No Statcast – TV
BAL vs. PIT (Prospects)
CIN vs. TEX (Prospects)
TBR vs. ATL
OAK vs. CHC
LAA vs. CHW
CIN vs. TEX
Cade Povich (BAL) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. I got to catch some video of this and he’s not overwhelming batters with heaters (looked so slow after Skenes), but pay attention to his Triple-A performances. He could get a shot this summer for the Orioles.
Paul Skenes (PIT) – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. Yeah, he looked legit. Just one inning as the Pirates have been very careful with him thus far. If you’re curious about stashing him, I understand completely as he will help your fantasy teams when he arrives, but how long will it take? My guess it mid-May once the Pirates secure the most value for Skenes long term.
Julien Aguiar (CIN) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. This game was from the press box, so I can’t tell you anything of actual value. Sigh. He’s an exciting one though and I look forward to getting a better look later this year (hopefully).
Rhett Lowder (CIN) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. Hey, more Rhett! And we don’t have a good camera angle or data! Yay! In due time, though keep in mind that the context of pitching for Cincinnati doesn’t do him any favors, especially with the number of arms at their disposal ahead of him for 2025.
Zack Littell (TBR) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. I’m awfully curious about this. Littell’s four-seamer last year didn’t showcase an offering that could consistently overwhelm upstairs, but Littell was able to command it there constantly last year and was able to earn whiffs doing so here, blowing the pitch past both Riley and Acuña in the first for strikeouts. The slider (it’s a cutter) isn’t that putaway offering but acts to get strikes in the zone (absurdly low 14% two-strike usage last year) and as long as he keeps it down to tunnel with the four-seamer, it can create more deception. The splitter was effective here as well and I can see how this does come together. My major hesitation is that nothing is elite here and Littell wasn’t consistent last season across the arsenal. Maybe there’s something new we’d pick out when more data comes through, but with his first two starts slated to be Toronto + Coors, I’d rather sit this out early.
Chris Sale (ATL) – 3.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. He’s good to go y’all. With his team context, it all makes sense that he’d soar. It’s just a matter of innings while the quality will clearly be there. Getting bankable production is a valuable thing in your drafts, worry about his time on the IL later.
JP Sears (OAK) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. I still can’t get Sears out of my head. The four-seamer is looking better this spring and if he can find any sort of rhythm with his breakers or changeup, he could be legit, even on the Athletics. But then again, he doesn’t have that history of command and it’s, again, Oakland. Maybe we take a shot against the Guardians to open the year and take it from there? Who’s daring enough to do that?
Shota Imanaga (CHC) – 4.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks. This is the Imanaga we’re looking for, though it should be noted that he faced the Athletics here. The four-seamer was upstairs, splitters earned whiffs, backfoot sliders, it’s all there. I’m so in. He’s #2 in strikeouts for the spring at just 9.2 IP, with only Strider beating him with three more strikeouts in 4.1 more innings. Just saying.
Tyler Anderson (LAA) – 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. He’s a streaming option if you must during the season. That’s all.
Michael Soroka (CWS) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 5 Ks. He’s throwing backfoot breakers to LHB and it’s a pitch he didn’t have when we saw him pre-injury cataclysms. The velocity doesn’t appear to be all too exciting, but I’m convinced there’s a sneaky starter in here. The Wins may not be there, but then again, Soroka should find the sixth a ton, right?
Garrett Crochet (CWS) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. I’m intrigued, but I can’t tell if I buy into Crochet’s command enough to lean into this. Without proper data (nor a great camera angle), it’s difficult to discern if the heater + slider are enough at the moment, and with his first start of the year likely being Atlanta, I think we’re better off just waiting until the start of the year and assessing from there. It could be a really great fastball/slider mix, though.
Jon Gray (TEX) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. I’m not sold Gray is worth your attention given how he breaks the Huascar Rule. That said, if he’s the SP #2 for the Rangers, you may get some value during opening weekend against the Cubs. That’s an interesting idea, but just note he gets the Astros after. If you want to take the shot there for some strikeouts then send him back to the wire for the flier with a fifth rotation spot you would have drafted instead, that’s cool with me.
No Statcast – No TV
COL vs. CLE
MIL vs. SEA
HOU vs. WSN
Peter Lambert (COL) – 3.1 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. COL story, bro.
Logan Allen (CLE) – 3.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. He’s a Toby with a decent matchup against the Mariners to start the year. Meh. You can do better.
Robert Gasser (MIL) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. Man, I wish we had some data or TV for this one. Gasser is likely behind Aaron Ashby, but is sure to get a shot this year in the Brewers rotation once the whole Joe Ross and Jakob Junis thing falters. He should be on your radar when that time comes, though I don’t consider him part of the S-tier prospect pitchers like Jones, Skenes, and Jobe. Oh Jobe…
Bryan Woo (SEA) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. Yep. Get him.
Zach Davies (WSN) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Don’t rule out Davies finding his way into the rotation over Williams, or at the very least as the long reliever early who can transition to that role when needed. Sadly, it’s not enough for all but the deepest leagues.
What To Watch on TV Today
SPs to watch on TV today #SpringSPnotes
Updates daily via Plus Pitch Podcast & SP Roundup article.
GO WATCH TINK HENCE
Dean Kremer – Good enough to stream early?
Naoyuki Uwasawa – New SP #5 for Rays?
Quinn Priester – Not stealing SP #5 from Jones?
Clarke Schmidt – What's…— Nick Pollack (@PitcherList) March 15, 2024