The List 5/10: Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2021 – Week 7

It’s the weekly tradition here at Pitcher List where I rank the Top 100 Starting Pitchers in fantasy baseball and it’s time for Week 7’s starting pitcher rankings.

Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 12:00pm EST as I live-stream its creation each week!

As always, make sure to read the notes as there are many changes that have good reasons behind them, and please consider that these ranks are based on a 12-teamer, 5×5 roto format. Adjust accordingly to your situation.

Here are the rules for those wondering why a pitcher is or isn’t ranked here:

1. If a pitcher is on the IL or out of the rotation and not confirmed for a start this week, they are pushed into the Fringe table.
2. If a pitcher is in a rotation and not confirmed to start but has not been placed on the IL or officially removed, they remain on The List.
3. These rankings are made as if I am drafting a team today for the rest of the season.
4. This means the Top 40-50 picks are more for ROS, while the rankings after are more short-term focused.
5. I will only incorporate a game played on Monday if the pitcher’s performance is completed before 2:00pm EST.

 

Ranking Notes

 

• This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
• Seriously. Read the notes.

 

• Jacob deGrom was placed on the IL today and it stinks. He should miss just one start, though, and I can’t wait for all the comments next week about a pitcher receiving a “-1” next to their name.
• Speaking of which, Corbin Burnes and Hyun Jin Ryu both returned to The List this week, granting, get this, an innate “-1” ranking to everyone past #17. Please take this into consideration. Please.

 

• In the third tier, Aaron Nola and Lucas Giolito each fell, yet are still clear Top 15 arms. Nola’s movement is less about him and more that the other arms are proving more consistent with the same volume, while Giolito’s recent stretch is a bit more concerning. I think he can get the velocity up from sub 93 mph + figure out his changeup command, but for now, he’s pushed behind Tyler Glasnow.
• I’m liking what Jack Flaherty has done with his slider as of late and could start hinting at his second half of 2019. There’s still a bit of work to be done with his heaters, but that can easily arrive soon.

 

• Tier 4 may be the most interesting one of the week. It starts with the return of Hyun Jin Ryu as he returned from the IL. With his Still ILL start behind him, expect him to be a Top 20 play moving forward.
• Sonny Gray’s curveball is in top form and there’s still improvement to come with his slider. It’s hard to argue against 11 strikeouts against the Dodgers as he’s looking like the pitcher who was promised over the winter.

 

• I have a sense that I want to give the AGA label to everyone inside of this Tier, but it’s proper tradition to do so inside their SP Roundup blurbs. That said, Zack Wheeler certainly pitched like one against the Brewers for a CGSHO and as long as he doesn’t sputter, he’ll get his AGA title returned next week.
• Kevin Gausman, John Means, and Trevor Rogers have all pitched up to the AGA level as well and I’m waiting for one more start each to grant them their coveted status.

 

• Meanwhile, Dylan Bundy was oh-so-close before stumbling against the Dodgers. Hopefully, he can recover against Boston and Minnesota next.
• Yes, Julio Urías stays ranked high – his last stumble was more bad luck than poor ability. He’s a strong arm for your squads.

 

• I took no joy placing Joe Musgrove and Lance McCullers in Tier 5, but I didn’t have much choice – those in Tier 4 are performing more consistently + they each have a small flaw. Musgrove had struggled to follow his blueprint in his last few starts, while McCullers has recently not had his new slider. I believe both will recover, but they deserved the dip.
• Zach Plesac was electric against the Reds this week, changing his approach against lefties as he introduced a curveball that keep batters off-balance. Paired with his solid changeup and slider, Plesac has a deeper repertoire that should make him a stable arm through the year. Who doesn’t love a starter who can go eight frames?

 

• Blake Snell takes a tumble this week as he still can’t find a way to go six frames. The main issue stems from an inability to throw sliders or curveballs inside the zone and without it, he gets into deeper counts and his fastball becomes more hittable. Here’s to a jump back up the list in the upcoming weeks.
• With Max Fried returning from the IL and expressing comfort, I imagine we’ll see a steady climb in future weeks. We just need to make sure he’s all stable for now.

 

• The back end of Tier 5 contains Carlos Rodón, who is defying all our expectations with a 94/95 mph fastball – he’s never averaged above 93.5 mph on his fastball for a full season. He certainly performing at a level deserving of Top 20, but the question is how long he can keep it up considering he’s never done it before.
• Charlie Morton nearly made the fifth tier, but with his rough start to the season, it’s best to push him into the “tier of disappointment.” He pitched plenty better than his last start would indicate and I still label him as one of the best ‘Buy Lows” out there.

 

• With Morton in Tier 6 is Luis Castillo and José Berríos. Castillo is failing to get the same strikes with his changeup + his fastball command is ballooning his BABIP past .360. I expect it to improve, but it’s been rough so far and I can’t keep him above all the success stories. With Berríos, his curveball is performing well, though he’s lost his feel for his fastball. I’m confident it will return soon, but he’s not at the same level as others currently.
• Huascar Ynoa also shows up in Tier 6 as he continues to build his legacy. It’s hard not to question the legitimacy of a two-pitch mix, but, like Rodón, he doesn’t have the track record to push him higher. Yet.

 

• Climbing up the Ranks is Robbie Ray, who gave us his third straight start of four-seamers at 96+ and finding the zone constantly. The result? A 9/0 K/BB as he boasts a 23/0 mark for three games. It’s starting to feel real now and it could be more sustainable once he finds the feel for his slider and curveball as well.
• Zack Greinke falls to #45 as he has failed to be the rock you drafted him to be. It has been a tough schedule, though, and I envision Greinke still being a sub 4.00, sub 1.20 WHIP arm for your rotations when all is said and done. Hold onto him.

 

• Chris Paddack returns to The List as he made his Sunday start after on the COVID-IL. It was just three frames and there is a touch of concern that he’ll need to ramp up again from the sub-60 pitch count, however his fastball looked as good as we’ve seen from him since 2019 and there’s hope he can build on it moving forward.
• José Urquidy’s fall may be startling, but it’s more of a product of giving love to guys like Heaney, Wood, and Manaea. Urquidy, meanwhile, isn’t quite coming through on all his pitches, inhibiting his strikeouts along the way. I imagine he’ll get his slider and curveball working again shortly.

 

• Tier 8 is what I’m calling “The Stash Tier”. Shohei Ohtani and Shane McClanahan lead it off as two arms I believe will improve as the season continues. In the meantime, Ohtani could still be productive and McClanahan could creep past that 80 pitch mark after touching it over the weekend.
• Eduardo Rodriguez is in here as well after failing to have his fastball for two straight starts. That won’t be the case for the year, but right now, he’s a stash.

 

• Next in Tier 9 are a collection of arms you should feel good rostering at the moment. Will they be in your rotation for the full year? Likely not, but you can’t deny the rolls Kyle Gibson, Michael Pineda, and JT Brubaker are currently on.
• Dylan Cease and Yusei Kikuchi have each looked well in their last two starts and may continue their strikeout totals moving forward. I do have a bit of worry in Cease’s fastball and changeup command, however that slider is looking filthy.

 

• Tier 10 is where you’ll find Patrick Corbin and Kyle Hendricks, a pair of arms who should be performing better but haven’t had the results you want. I still believe they’ll be worth your time at some point this season – maybe now is that time! – but as of now, there’s still a lot of risk and I understand using their spots for something more tangible in the short term.
• With the way Garrett Richards is pumping the zone with four-seamers, he’s opening the door for his slider to take over. We haven’t seen it quite yet, but if that slider returns, he could rise in a hurry.

 

• Triston McKenzie could be considered a stash option at the moment as he needs to improve his fastball command + establish a better blueprint for his secondary pitches.
• With the start of Tier 11, Matthew Boyd returns to the picture and it’s unclear if he can pick up where he left off. Hopefully his knee injury doesn’t hold him back as I wait with bated breath to see if his slider is finally back.

 

• Nathan Eovaldi took a spill this week as he’s performed poorly against the Tigers and Mariners across his last three outings. Now with a rough schedule ahead, I have less faith his secondary stuff can hold up their end of the bargain.
• I know that Wade Miley just tossed a no-hitter – awesome! – but he’s still just a Toby who has the face Coors + the southpaw-crushing Giants next. That’s not for me.

 

• I know, I know, Tyler Anderson has been absurdly good as of late, but he has to endure the aforementioned Giants next, then face Atlanta. You’ll have to be strong-willed to throw Tyler out there for both of those outings.
• Tier 12 also holds Dane Dunning who fanned ten against the Mariners, but played with fire as he nearly allowed 6 ER via a grand slam that went foul. Sure, it didn’t happen, but it’s an expression of how close Dunning is to being back on your wire and with Houston + NYY + LAA next, I’m not sure I want to start him for any of it.

 

• We have a second “Stash Tier” at Tier 13 with Daniel Lynch at the top. He has been incredibly disappointing thus far, but his stuff is incredibly impressive. If the fastball command found on scouting reports shows itself, Lynch could turn into a quality 12-teamer arm in a hurry.
• Tarik Skubal and Nate Pearson each make their home in Tier 13 as well. Skubal just fanned eight with a splitter (I’m not sure that sticks, but he’s adapting as he searches for a dependable secondary approach!) and Pearson is obviously more than a pitcher who walks five and fans none. There’s upside here.

 

• We’re closing out The List with possible streaming options and Joe Ross starts as he’s getting whiffs with four-seamers and sinkers. He’s incredibly risky on a given night, but at least he’s been given consistent opportunities for the Nationals.
• Finally, Matt Shoemaker has returned to The List along with his slider. There may be some worthwhile starts ahead as he sneaks some Wins.

 

 

All right, now that the notes are at the top and you understand where I’m coming from, let’s get to The List:

Rank	Pitcher	Team	Badges	Change
1	Shane BieberT1	TOR	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
2	Gerrit Cole	NYY	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
3	Yu Darvish T2	SD	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
4	Trevor Bauer	LAD	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
5	Max Scherzer	TOR	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+4
6	Walker Buehler	SD	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
7	Brandon Woodruff	MIL	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+4
8	Clayton Kershaw	SD	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
9	Corbin Burnes	ARI	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+UR
10	Aaron Nola T3	PHI	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-4
11	Jack Flaherty	DET	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+3
12	Lance Lynn		Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
13	Tyler Glasnow	LAD	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	-
14	Lucas Giolito	SD	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-7
15	Zac Gallen	ARI	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
16	Hyun Jin Ryu T4		Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+UR
17	Sonny Gray	BOS	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	+7
18	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
19	Zack Wheeler	PHI	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+6
20	Julio Urías		Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-3
21	Kevin Gausman	CHC	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+6
22	John Means		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+7
23	Trevor Rogers	BAL	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	+5
24	Dylan Bundy		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside	-1
25	Zach Plesac T5	STL	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
26	Max Fried	NYY	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+5
27	Joe Musgrove	SD	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	-6
28	Lance McCullers Jr.		Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips	-6
29	Blake Snell	LAD	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	-13
30	Tyler Mahle	ATL	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside	+3
31	Pablo López	MIN	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Streaming Option	+3
32	Carlos Rodón	NYY	Ace Potential Streaming Option	+5
33	Charlie Morton T6	SD	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-13
34	José Berríos	TOR	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	-4
35	Luis Castillo	CHW	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	-16
36	Ian Anderson	ATL	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	-
37	Huascar Ynoa	LAA	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+4
38	Aaron Civale	CHC	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-3
39	Corey Kluber		Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-
40	Kenta Maeda T7	SD	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	-2
41	Jameson Taillon	TOR	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+1
42	Robbie Ray	SD	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	+6
43	Freddy Peralta	TB	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-3
44	Frankie Montas	SD	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	-1
45	Zack Greinke		Ace Potential Quality Starts	-13
46	Danny Duffy		Quality Starts Toby Streaming Option	-1
47	Marcus Stroman		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-1
48	Alex Wood		Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	+2
49	Andrew Heaney		Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+3
50	Sean Manaea	NYM	Injury Risk Toby Ratio Focused	+3
51	José Urquidy	PHI	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question	-7
52	Zach Eflin	BAL	Ace Potential Quality Starts Streaming Option	+4
53	Chris Bassitt	BAL	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+1
54	Cristian Javier	HOU	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-5
55	Chris Paddack		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+UR
56	Shohei Ohtani T8	LAD	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Stash Option	+1
57	Shane McClanahan	TB	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Stash Option	+1
58	Dinelson Lamet		Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Stash Option	+UR
59	Eduardo Rodriguez	ARI	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	-12
60	Michael Pineda T9		Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-1
61	Kyle Gibson		Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+6
62	JT Brubaker	SF	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-1
63	Dylan Cease	TOR	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	+13
64	Yusei Kikuchi	LAA	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-4
65	Adbert Alzolay		Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+13
66	Domingo Germán		Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-
67	Patrick Corbin T10	TOR	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-2
68	Kyle Hendricks		Ace Potential Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-13
69	Garrett Richards		Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+6
70	Madison Bumgarner		Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-8
71	Jordan Montgomery	TEX	Strikeout Upside Toby Ratio Focused	-8
72	Anthony DeSclafani		Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+2
73	Taijuan Walker		Quality Starts Toby Streaming Option	+8
74	Brady Singer	CIN	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-5
75	Triston McKenzie	SD	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-11
76	Matthew Boyd T11	CHC	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+UR
77	Rich Hill		Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+7
78	Nathan Eovaldi	TEX	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-27
79	Wade Miley		Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+9
80	Adam Wainwright		Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-12
81	Dallas Keuchel		Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	-11
82	Griffin Canning	SD	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-5
83	Luis García		Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+17
84	Tyler Anderson T12	SD	Toby Streaming Option	+15
85	Justin Dunn	LAA	Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	-5
86	Dane Dunning	SEA	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+5
87	Germán Márquez	MIN	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-15
88	Cole Irvin	LAD	Toby Streaming Option	+6
89	Daniel Lynch IV T13	KC	Playing Time Question Stash Option	-16
90	Tarik Skubal	LAD	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Stash Option	+UR
91	Nate Pearson	KC	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Stash Option	+UR
92	Joe Ross T14	TEX	Toby Streaming Option	+UR
93	Ryan Yarbrough	NYY	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-7
94	Matt Shoemaker		Toby Streaming Option	+UR
95	José Ureña	SD	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-3
96	Steven Matz	TB	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	-25
97	Kwang Hyun Kim		Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-14
98	J.A. Happ		Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-13
99	Jon Gray		Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-10
100	Nick Pivetta	SD	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-13

Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)