The List 5/17: Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2021 – Week 8

It’s the weekly tradition here at Pitcher List where I rank the Top 100 Starting Pitchers in fantasy baseball and it’s time for Week 7’s starting pitcher rankings.

Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 12:00pm EST as I live-stream its creation each week!

As always, make sure to read the notes as there are many changes that have good reasons behind them, and please consider that these ranks are based on a 12-teamer, 5×5 roto format. Adjust accordingly to your situation.

For those unaware:

• Cherry Bomb = A volatile pitcher who is either super sweet or blows up in your face. There are few middle grounds.
• Toby = A middling pitcher who you can’t decide if they do enough to stay on your team and give you the itch to drop every single day. Named after Toby from The Office.

Here are the rules for those wondering why a pitcher is or isn’t ranked here:

1. If a pitcher is on the IL or out of the rotation and not confirmed for a start this week, they are pushed into the Fringe table.
2. If a pitcher is in a rotation and not confirmed to start but has not been placed on the IL or officially removed, they remain on The List.
3. These rankings are made as if I am drafting a team today for the rest of the season.
4. This means the Top 40-50 picks are more for ROS, while the rankings after are more short-term focused.
5. I will only incorporate a game played on Monday if the pitcher’s performance is completed before 2:00pm EST.

 

Ranking Notes

 

• This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
• Seriously. Read the notes.

 

• Hey there, Gerrit Cole. Welcome to the #1 ranking in fantasy baseball. Shane Bieber, while still so obviously elite, hasn’t been quite as sharp and is falling just a bit behind. I also felt Cole deserved to get a moment as the top arm while Jacob deGrom was still out. So here we are.
• Brandon Woodruff is taking the step above Walker Buehler this week as he’s done everything you could ask of him with a 33% strikeout rate, 1.64 ERA, and 0.73 WHIP. He’s gone at least six frames in every start save for his first, as well. Woody isn’t toying with your hearts.

 

• Tier 3 looks…exactly the same. I’ve seen discussion about Aaron Nola dropping further but I don’t see a reason to after enduring Dunedin – arguably the worst place for starters to pitch this year. He also had his changeup working plenty there, making the start somewhat encouraging as that #3 pitch could be more consistent moving forward
• Please note, I had to remove Zac Gallen from this tier as he’s dealing with a UCL injury, creating an innate “+1” for everyone outside the Top 15 before Huascar Ynoa, who broke his hand punching the dugout bench coming out of Sunday’s game.

 

• Tier 4 is the super fun dope THOSE ARE MY DUDES tier. Max Fried is the only one who didn’t earn the AGA label this past week, but he certainly pitched like it. I expect to hand it out in the future weeks as he gets more starts under his belt.
• Look at that, Trevor Rogers is technically Top 20 now. What a wonderful world it’s been.

 

• The following tier is where some concern begins. Sandy Alcantara took a nosedive against the Dodgers, showcasing a floor I didn’t expect to see. It came with bad luck, yes, but if his whiffability were higher, it would have nipped some of the damage in the bud. I expect him to recover, though a drop to #21 and a removal of the AGA tag seems fitting.
• Lucas Giolito has also been off lately, now accruing four games of underwhelming numbers. The good news is I believe it’s a product of fastball command that he can reclaim – he has in the past – and his changeup is still a wonderful option. He’ll rebound over time, possibly as soon as his next outing.

 

• While I very much believe in Sonny Gray, I needed to drop him slightly as his slider hasn’t returned to its brilliant self yet. Gray’s curveball has carried him thus far and I’m eager to watch his next start in anticipation of the sweeper’s return.
• Joe Musgrove gets a slight boost this week not because of a great performance this week, but because of Dylan Bundy and Sonny Gray falling. He’s at a very specific moment in his season where he can recover or continue in his current spiral. I think one of his curveball, cutter, and changeup will return soon and improve his future starts.

 

• In the sixth tier, Dylan Bundy leads off as he’s stumbled in his last two outings against the Dodgers and Red Sox. The schedule will be better, I expect him to make fewer mistakes with two strikes, and everything is fine. His slider is still stupendous.
• Blake Snell has disappointed many managers this year as we’ve been waiting since July 2019 for the southpaw to toss six frames. While some may want him further down The List, I think Snell can make the tweaks to succeed as he pitches for a winning ball club. The tweaks will come, his stuff is still excellent. Blake, please focus on throwing sliders and curveballs for strikes k thx.

 

• Robbie Ray has entered the sixth tier as his fastballs-in-the-zone approach has propelled a 42/2 strikeout per walk ratio across his last five starts. It does come with more longballs + some dates in Dunedin, but the low WHIP and excellent strikeouts make it worthwhile.
• I’m raising Freddy Peralta as he’s looking like someone who will overwhelm more than struggle. Still a Cherry Bomb, but we’re starting him with more confidence these days.

 

• Leading off Tier 7 is the man of the hour, the belladeball, Patrick Corbin, who featured a heater at 92.6 mph and had 13 whiffs against the Phillies. It’s the man we’ve been waiting seven weeks for and now that he’s expressed the ability, it’s awfully convincing that he can keep this up moving forward. I can see Corbin continuing to climb if he’s able to sit 92 mph with this slider in future weeks as it’s reminiscent of his 2018 and 2019 self.
• Charlie Morton sits right after Corbin as we all recognize this as the tier of the questionable performers with large upside. Morton’s four-seamer has a .385 BABIP that should come back down to Earth, while his cutter and curveball are both performing well. This will get fixed and we can’t penalize him harshly for 3 ER across 4.2 innings in Dunedin.

 

• Kyle Hendricks got a huge bump after looking more like his former self as he tossed eight frames against the Tigers for 41% CSW. Yes, it was the Tigers, but that’s two out of three successes for Hendricks, with the sore thumb being an unlucky affair against the Pirates. He’s performing better with his changeup + curveball and the sinker is back at 87 mph. All signs point to redemption.
• Nothing really changed with Luis Castillo this past week as his horrendous day was spent in Coors. Can we really change our opinion of him after that? He fell a decent amount moreso because of those going ahead.

 

• Let’s outline the tiers really quickly. All through Tier 6 are the strong plays you should be starting most of the time. Tier 7 = guys we anticipate will be secure in the near future. At Tier 8 is where we start to see the massive cliff of talent, a plateau of ability where the gap continually shortens between ranks. In other words, the value between #25 and #50 is much larger than #50 and #75.
• This means we’re going to heavily start favoring upside over “steady” plays as losing a player in the 50s doesn’t have a significant impact on your squad ROS. However, the impact of an upside play panning out and becoming a Top 35 arm can be a league-winning move.

 

• All of that is to say that Shane McClanahan ranks at #46 after tossing 5.1 frames for the Rays. His stuff is ace-like and if he’s able to go 5-6 frames with consistency, he will continue to rise up the ranks. He oddly tossed just 75 pitches in his last start after the leash extended to 80 in his previous outing, though I imagine it’ll continue to expand with time.
• Yusei Kikuchi also gets a high mark for his upside after his last three games have displayed a 96 mph fastball + a cutter & slider that earns whiffs and called strikes. Here’s to hoping he can keep up the effort.

 

• JT Brubaker and Kyle Gibson offer value in the short-term as each have cruised across the last month. While I don’t believe either can keep it up through the year, it’s hard for me to deny them this Tier 8 ranking.
• Then there’s Shohei Ohtani, who finally gave us a start worthy of his potential against the Astros. We’ve been waiting for him to get into a rhythm and this could be the start of a wonderful stretch.

 

• I wanted to raise Madison Bumgarner further up the rungs as he featured a 92/93 mph heater last time out. Keep in mind, we were excited he was sitting at 91 mph after tossing an 88/89 mph fastball in 2020. However, he’s slated to get the Dodgers twice now and it’s hard to trust that he can handle the gauntlet – will the 92/93 mph still be there? It’s unclear.
• I’m not thrilled about placing Zack Greinke this far down, though he hasn’t done a whole lot to suggest a higher rank. I can see him holding good enough ratios across plenty of volume through the year, but he doesn’t carry the immediate impact nor the long-term ceiling as the others.

 

• Tier nine is where it begins to get a bit questionable. Chris Bassitt is a solid arm for 12-teamers, though there is innate volatility as he doesn’t have much in his repertoire outside of a dependable sinker. He’s a hold on average, but explore other options.
• Adbert Alzolay could ascend moving forward as his slider/fastball combination draws Huascar Ynoa comps (Oh Ynoa….sigh), just a few ticks slower. Hopefully he can keep commanding the breaker well without his fastball getting beat up.

 

• Rich Hill takes a leap as the Rays have made it clear that they’ll let him pitch six frames and 100 pitches when he’s up to the challenge. He can get it done with an 88/89 mph fastball – somehow – and a curveball that gets taken for a strike constantly.
• Sean Manaea takes a dive after getting beat up by the Red Sox and Orioles across his last three games. His fastball is better this year at 91 mph and I love the jump his changeup has made from a 24% CSW to 36% this season, though the consistency isn’t quite there yet.

 

• Tier 10 is filled with some intriguing names that are still heavily matchup dependent. Taijuan Walker, Anthony DeSclafani, and Matthew Boyd have all impressed early this year, but I question each one’s repertoire as I’m waiting for something new to show up to help their secondaries for the long haul.
• Logan Gilbert makes his debut on The List after getting the call last week. Check out the GIF Breakdown I wrote on the outing, with the TL;DR conclusion being that he’s on a low pitch count & will need some time to ramp up + refine the command of his breakers. I like him for the full season, but likely in 3-4 weeks instead of now.

 

• Tier 11 is all about streaming and sadly, not all of them are available to do so – I’m looking at you Brady Singer and Steven Matz.
• It’s incredibly confusing what you should be doing with Ryan Weathers and Dinelson Lamet. Weathers looks to be getting stretched out and his fastball/slider combination should be serviceable if he’s allowed to toss 80+ pitches constantly. Meanwhile, Lamet was used in relief on Sunday and may not stay there moving forward. Either way, it’s a stash play as we’re waiting for him to get the green light to toss 80+ pitches again. Feel free to drop as this could take some time.

 

• In the final tier, we have a collection of arms deserving of a spot on The List. Vince Velasquez gets the Marlins twice and could be a streamer. David Peterson just fanned ten. Casey Mize could be considered as a streamer for his next starts. Drew Smyly has a decent schedule as well, and Logan Webb…well his changeup has arrived but he has to endure the Dodgers. Hey, maybe it works!
• The final arm on The List may surprise you as it’s Sam Hentges, who is being groomed to be the #5 starter for Cleveland with a solid mid-90s fastball and deceptive hook. There could be something here as his pitch count continues to climb.

 

 

All right, now that the notes are at the top and you understand where I’m coming from, let’s get to The List:

Rank	Pitcher	Team	Badges	Change
1	Gerrit ColeT1	NYY	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
2	Shane Bieber	TOR	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
3	Yu Darvish T2	SD	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
4	Trevor Bauer	LAD	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
5	Max Scherzer	TOR	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
6	Brandon Woodruff	MIL	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+1
7	Walker Buehler	SD	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-1
8	Clayton Kershaw	SD	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
9	Corbin Burnes	ARI	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-
10	Aaron Nola T3	PHI	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
11	Jack Flaherty	DET	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
12	Lance Lynn		Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
13	Tyler Glasnow	LAD	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	-
14	Hyun Jin Ryu T4		Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
15	Zack Wheeler	PHI	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+4
16	Julio Urías		Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+4
17	Kevin Gausman	TOR	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+4
18	John Means		Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+4
19	Max Fried	NYY	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+7
20	Trevor Rogers	BAL	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	+3
21	Sandy Alcantara T5	MIA	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-3
22	Lucas Giolito	SD	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-8
23	Zach Plesac	STL	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
24	Joe Musgrove	SD	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	+3
25	Sonny Gray	BOS	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	-8
26	Lance McCullers Jr.	HOU	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips	+2
27	Dylan Bundy T6		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside	-3
28	Tyler Mahle	SF	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside	+2
29	Blake Snell	LAD	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	-
30	Carlos Rodón	NYY	Ace Potential Streaming Option	+2
31	Ian Anderson	ATL	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	+5
32	Freddy Peralta	NYM	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+11
33	Pablo López	MIN	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-2
34	Robbie Ray	SF	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	+8
35	Patrick Corbin T7	TOR	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+32
36	Charlie Morton	SD	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-3
37	José Berríos	TOR	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	-3
38	Aaron Civale		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-
39	Kyle Hendricks		Ace Potential Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+29
40	Corey Kluber		Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-1
41	Jameson Taillon	CHC	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-
42	Luis Castillo	SEA	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	-7
43	Frankie Montas T8	SD	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	+1
44	Danny Duffy		Quality Starts Toby	+2
45	Marcus Stroman		Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+2
46	Shane McClanahan	TB	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Stash Option	+11
47	Yusei Kikuchi	LAA	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+17
48	Kenta Maeda	SD	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	-8
49	JT Brubaker	SF	Toby Ratio Focused	+13
50	Kyle Gibson		Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+11
51	Alex Wood		Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	-3
52	Shohei Ohtani	LAD	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Stash Option	+4
53	Domingo Germán		Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+13
54	Zach Eflin	BAL	Quality Starts	-2
55	Andrew Heaney		Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-6
56	Zack Greinke		Ace Potential Quality Starts	-11
57	Madison Bumgarner		Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+13
58	Chris Paddack	MIA	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question	-3
59	Chris Bassitt T9	BAL	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	-6
60	Cristian Javier	HOU	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-6
61	Sean Manaea	NYM	Injury Risk Toby Ratio Focused	-11
62	Adbert Alzolay	NYM	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+3
63	Eduardo Rodriguez	ARI	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	-4
64	Rich Hill		Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+13
65	Dylan Cease	TOR	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	-2
66	Jordan Montgomery	TEX	Strikeout Upside Toby Ratio Focused	+5
67	Garrett Richards		Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+2
68	Michael Pineda T10		Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-8
69	Anthony DeSclafani		Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+3
70	Taijuan Walker	PHI	Quality Starts Toby	+3
71	Matthew Boyd	CHC	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+5
72	Griffin Canning	SD	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+10
73	Luis García		Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+10
74	Logan Gilbert	SEA	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option Stash Option	+UR
75	Tyler Anderson	SD	Toby Streaming Option	+9
76	Nathan Eovaldi	TEX	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+2
77	Brady Singer T11	CIN	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	-3
78	James Kaprielian		Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+UR
79	Spencer Turnbull	KC	Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	+UR
80	Dane Dunning	SEA	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+6
81	Steven Matz	TB	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	+15
82	Tarik Skubal	DET	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Streaming Option Stash Option	+8
83	Ryan Weathers	NYY	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+UR
84	Dinelson Lamet		Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Stash Option	-26
85	Cole Irvin	LAD	Toby Streaming Option	+3
86	Adam Wainwright		Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-6
87	Wade Miley		Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-8
88	Dallas Keuchel		Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	-7
89	Justin Dunn T12		Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	-4
90	Vince Velasquez	CHC	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
91	David Peterson	NYM	Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	+UR
92	Triston McKenzie	SD	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-17
93	Casey Mize	DET	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option Stash Option	+UR
94			Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	+UR
95	Germán Márquez	SD	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-8
96	Jon Gray		Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+3
97	Logan Webb	SF	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option Stash Option	+UR
98	Kwang Hyun Kim		Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-1
99	Nick Pivetta	SD	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+1
100	Sam Hentges	SF	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+UR

Photo by All-Pro Reels (https://www.flickr.com/photos/joeglo/) | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)