The List 6/6: Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2022 – Week 9

Welcome to The List, where I rank the Top 100 SP for Fantasy Baseball every single Monday of the year.

Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 1:00pm ET as I live-stream its creation each week!

Have questions? My “office hours” are on Twitch 9:00 am – 11:00 am ET Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream of The List.

For each edition of The List, I have a set of rules to outline my thought process and how to best use these rankings. Please take note:

1. This is 5×5, 12-teamer, H2H format focused. It generally is the same as roto as well, but make sure you adjust accordingly.
2. We have two tables to review before the notes and rankings. First is an injury table that outlines where players would be relatively ranked if fully healthy. It’s the best way to tackle how to value players on the IL.
3. If a player is on the IL or not confirmed inside the rotation, they aren’t on the List. That includes injuries and guys in the minors, but there are exceptions for players who are expected to be in the rotation but are being skipped this week.
4. Second is a table of pitchers outside the Top 100 I considered. Please read this if you can’t find your guy.
5. Since this is a 12-teamer, I heavily weigh upside in the back-half of the rankings. Tier 10 is likely going to underperform those in Tier 11 across a full season, but it’s in your best interest to chase Tier 10’s ceiling vs. settling for Tier 11’s floor.
6. I’ve made a decision to remove all the labels that I struggle to maintain through the season to instead give each player just one label at a time. It streamlines the process much better and hopefully gives you a more targeted understanding of the player.
7. The notes outline oh-so-much to help your team. Please read the notes if you can instead of just scrolling to the bottom.

 

Let’s get to the tables. First are all of our injured compatriots:

 

 

I made a decision this year: I’ve removed the “Preseason tiers” and changed “tiers” to “Relative Rank” as it’ll be more consistent week-to-week — Tiers change while their relative rank does not.

Please understand that “70-80” does not guarantee the player will be exactly in that range when they return. Rankings are 100% relative to the landscape and while this table reflects where they would sit in a vacuum, it’s a fluid creature. Sometimes there are oh-so-many options, sometimes I want to see them healthy and stretched out again, and others we’re starving for pitchers and they jump higher than “70-80”. It’s a loose reference point and why it’s called “relative ranking.” I hope it helps!

One last point about that – often times pitchers need an extra week or two to ramp up once they do return to the majors. It’s why Still ILL exists and the “relative rank” you see is when those guys have shaken off their rust. Will they be back to normal in their first start or will they need a few? I have no idea! Those ranks are to show what I’d expect once they are fully back to normal.

Now let’s take a look at the pitchers I considered for the Top 100 but didn’t quite make the cut:

 

 

Lastly, I heavily recommend you follow my daily SP Roundup that outlines all pitcher performances through the season, or if you want a primer on most of these pitchers, you can check out my 40,000 words from the pre-season via my Top 224 Starting Pitchers for 2022 from February. Both will help you get a grasp of my general thoughts on most of these guys (especially the roundup!) as I simply can’t detail everything about 100 pitchers in these notes each week.

 

 

Ranking Notes

 

• This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
• Seriously. Read the notes.

 

• First and foremost, many pitchers returned to The List this week – Clayton Kershaw, Mike Clevinger, Joe Ryan, Shane Baz, Stephen Strasburg – which means you’re going to see a whole lot of displacement in the 40s and 50s that isn’t their fault. Keep that in mind when you see more red than you expect.
• For real, “why did this player drop after a good start?” that’s going to be why unless I say so otherwise. And yes, there will be a lot of notes so strap in y’all.

 

• H’ok. The Top 10 doesn’t change, even though the recent week would dictate some changes from, say Kevin Gausman or Carlos Rodón. Nope, not doing it. I didn’t see anything that warranted a shift in their abilities.
• The thing I did do was move Lucas Giolito and move Walker Buehler far down (we’ll talk about him later). As for Giolito, I still think he’s fantastic, we just haven’t seen him have it all together like the Top 10 has. Giolito managers understand.

 

• Tier 3 is where it starts to get spicy. I’ve lowered Robbie Ray, Aaron Nola, and Dylan Cease as the results have been more volatile than the rest of the crew. Do I believe in all three to eventually earn AGA labels? Absolutely. That doesn’t mean they deserve to be ranked above the others who could earn them next week.
• Among that group is Tarik Skubal and Nestor Cortes, who simply cannot be denied. I still have a few questions about their longevity, but Skubal’s slider has been great while Cortes’ command + results of his cutter and four-seamer are simply too amazing to hold outside of the Top 20.

 

• I also gave a small bump to Shane Bieber and Luis Severino. Bieber’s slider has been ridiculous and while I have my hesitation believing he’ll avoid the disasters with his 90/91 mph heater, he’s still acting as a strong arm for any fantasy roster. Severino, meanwhile, is looking more polished as ever and could soar through the summer.
• At the end of the tier is the first of the displacements in Clayton Kershaw returning from the IL. He gets his AGA label back (He is The Ace That Is Always Gonna Ace, after all), and is a comfortable start moving forward as he returns this weekend.

 

• It also makes him the top-ranked Los Angeles Dodger as Walker Buehler falls into Tier 4 with Julio Urías. I’ve made this the tier of “good but not top of the line quality”, which makes sense for Buehler, the Ace of Very Good (AVG). Some may be calling for a larger drop for Buehler, but at the end of the day, his secondaries are still excellent and it’s not a forgone conclusion that Buehler’s four-seamer is this rough the rest of the year.
• Inside the same tier are Logan Webb, Zac Gallen, Shohei Ohtani, and Nathan Eovaldi. Don’t get too hung up on their red marks – Skubal, Cortes, and Kershaw gave this tier an inherent “-3”, while I gave a little bump to Shane Bieber and Luis Severino as well. You should still feel great about all of them.

 

• I’m sure Tier 5 will be a controversial one. It begins with Yu Darvish, who has been underwhelming to say the least, especially after a rough 7.2 inning game against the Cardinals where he didn’t strikeout a batter until the seventh. I see Darvish as a premium Cherry Bomb and expect him to be a whole lot more sweet than sour through the weeks, though I have no issue with some placing him in the next tier instead.
• Eric Lauer’s acceleration slowed down this week as he dropped to just 92.5 mph on his heater – the catalyst for his 2022 success has been added velocity to a 94 mph mark. I’m not ready to say the velocity won’t return, but it may mean the start of a fall down the ranks next week.

 

• Tier 6 displaces many in Tier 7, beginning with the return of Shane Baz next weekend. He just fanned 10 in 4.1 frames of his rehab start and considering we had Baz in the 30s/early 40s in the pre-season with the expectation of diminished innings, he belongs in the mid-30s now that the innings limit has been removed. I’m excited to see him get regular starts for the Rays.
• Also returning is Joe Ryan after his COVID absence. There’s little reason to believe he won’t pick up where he left off with his 92+ mph heater and solid slider.

 

• Also in the sixth tier are MacKenzie Gore and Tony Gonsolin, each rising at least 10 spots. I wonder how consistent Gore’s secondaries will be, but they’ve all impressed early in the year, and the Padres are locked in on Gore sticking in the rotation. You love to see it.
• Meanwhile Tony Gonsolin is throwing strikes with his slider as the splitter earns whiffs as he constantly goes six frames for a winning team. It’s hard to deny their success right now.

 

• And now for Tier 7. Ohhhhhh my Tier 7 is going to upset so many. I’m sorry in advance, truly. To me, from #42 through #55 is such a blob where you can argue one guy over another incredibly easily. As long as you grasp why I have it arranged in this way, do whatever you want with it.
• For example, you’re going to see -16 for Michael Kopech, but that essentially pulls him from the top of the tier to the bottom of the tier. Not as huge of a deal as the number implies (he’s lower because we saw just one start of peak ability of 97 mph & stud breakers before it fell down again last time out. It’s hard to feel confident his best self will return).

 

• With Mike Clevinger returning from the IL, it makes for an innate total of -6 to all inside the tier, and -7 for all past Aaron Ashby. Keep that in mind when Jordan Montgomery and Framber Valdez have red marks yet have done nothing wrong.
• The big drops here were served to Patrick Sandoval and Charlie Morton, who haven’t been the pitchers you signed up for. Sandoval’s changeup has been gone, forcing more from his four-seamer that just isn’t there, while Morton can’t get on the right path. That said, I believe both are still capable of far better and should be still rostered on teams, especially with Morton facing the Pirates next. If you want to drop them more, go ahead, I get it.

 

• Y’all know I adore Aaron Ashby and I couldn’t raise him into Tier 6 after allowing 4 ER. Still, his stuff is real and the Brewers are letting the man fly every fifth day. It’s a great time to have Ashby on your squads and strap in for a fun summer.
• I gave a bump to Tyler Anderson and Martín Pérez as well, two overperformers who you’re not dropping in the slightest right now. It’s a fun ride, though I wouldn’t anticipate this to last a whole lot longer.

 

• We’re getting to the point where the level of talent between “rostered” and “unrostered” is getting awfully small, meaning it’s in your best interest to chase ceiling instead of decent ratios. That means I’ve placed Edward Cabrera, Spencer Strider, Roansy Contreras, and Jeffrey Springs all in the same tier (remember, Springs rose given the new additions and the forced raises).
• Each one of these arms provides their own glance into a possible game-changer for your team. Cabrera’s changeup is unreal, Strider’s four-seamer is elite, Contreras has a solid fastball/slider combo, and Springs carries a nasty changeup. They all come with risks, but their ceiling makes them a must-add in all formats.

 

• Also, wear the rainbow, Springs. Come on man, there’s no place for this. Treat people well.

 

• There’s also Alex Cobb taking a significant hit this week – a product of all the excitement for other guys + his hamstring injury that brings haze to his situation. If he were 100% healthy, I’d place Cobb likely at #53 where George Kirby is. The injury hesitation puts us in a weird place where you may be missing out and I’d rather have the bird in the hand.
• Tier 9 contains Jon Gray and Nick Pivetta, who have each proven themselves lately. Pivetta is on a roll that I don’t quite trust, while Gray sat 96 mph (!) in his last start. If that velocity sticks, his sweeper could propel him into legit Top 40 SP territory.

 

• Here you’ll see the real ramifications of the previous tiers, with Marcus Stroman, Noah Syndergaard, Trevor Rogers, Tyler Mahle, and Alex Wood all falling substantially. Simply put, I think the names I placed before are better plays to make than the rickety floors of Stroman and Syndergaard, the maddening 2022 of Rogers and Mahle (I didn’t move him, just others jumped up!), and wondering if Wood will actually come through with his 92/93 mph velocity.
• At the end of the tier is Stephen Strasburg, who is expected to return this week. I figure this was the end of the ceiling arms, placing Strasburg at a spot where you’d still want to take the chance and don’t lose a whole lot from those in Tier 10 or below. Let’s hope he’s looking well in his Still ILL outing.

 

• Tier 10 still has some excitement being filled with middling arms who could each go 6+ frames every time they hit the bump. Zach Eflin has featured his curveball over 20% of the time in each of his last three starts and while he suffered in one of them, you have to wonder if it’s the start of a real change that can make a large impact.
• I gave a drop to Bailey Ober as I wonder if his elevated four-seamer with a middling slider is enough to be a consistent play in your leagues. He’s teetering with it at the moment and I want to believe he can be that guy, but we’re not there right now.

 

• I really didn’t know what to do with Michael Lorenzen. It’s awfully hard to drop a guy this much after striking out nine, but I personally don’t see that strikeout upside sticking around, while he feasted on easier matchups earlier in the season. I’m not suggesting he should be avoided in your leagues, but I think there are better pitchers to roster at the moment. Sorry bud.
• Inside the eleventh tier Garrett Whitlock also fell considerably after finding a way to go six innings without striking out a single batter. It’s been a bit of a slog lately with Whitlock and while I’m still intrigued, I have no idea if he’ll turn it around to be a strong 12-team play.

 

• There are a few other interesting names here. Brady Singer fell as he’s made it clear he’s still just slider/changeup, and while that isn’t bad, it’s not the path to being a must-roster in 12-teamers.
• Two Cincinnati players rise up in Graham Ashcraft and Hunter Greene, each sporting elite fastball velocity. Greene has showed himself to be a Cherry Bomb and good luck figuring out which starts his slider dominates as he prevents the longball. As for Ashcraft (I call him Smokey Cheese), his sinker and cutter make it tough to barrel. He finally showed a game where his slider landed for strikes and there’s legit promise if that’s a sticky skill moving forward.

 

• Tier 12 and Tier 13 really aren’t all that different – if you’re looking for filler for your 12-teamers in a given week, this is where you’ll find it. Unfortunately, Miles Mikolas has run out of his early season magic, turning back in the standard matchup-dependent Toby, while Dane Dunning is featuring improved overall command as of late. Worthy options if you need them.
• The hot topic is Konnor Pilkington after fanning eight Royals last week. He nows has a luscious two-step against the Rangers and Athletics, making him a decent grab if you need some volume this week.

 

• Otherwise, all the Red here is mostly a product of the injured arms return to The List and the likes of Cabrera, Greene, and Ashcraft deserving more attention in 12-teamers. Don’t worry about it.
• Okay fine, Alex Faedo and Jakob Junis are better than expected, slightly, and could be good options here and there. Don’t go running to the wire for them, though. They each have a great slider and not whole lot else.

 

• Yusei Kikuchi floundered against the Twins and I’m highly skeptical he’s on the path to excellence. That said, he gets the Royals and Orioles next and that should be okay.
• In the bottom tier, I don’t like trusting Chad Kuhl as he still pitches his home games in Coors. Kyle Bradish is still here as he has an interesting two-start week against the Cubs and Royals, and hey, maybe Josiah Gray can avoid a home run and collect strikeouts against the Marlins.

 

• The final two guys are a bit interesting. Zach Plesac not only has had his slider return lately, but he’s also been able to earn plenty of strikes with his changeup. I can’t help but wonder if he can be a solid stream against the Athletics because of them.
• And finally, Mr. 100 is Matt Swarmer, who has flexed a strong vertical slider in his two starts so far for the Cubs. I wouldn’t test it against the Yankees this week, but keep an eye on him. Maybe that breaker does mask his middling four-seamer well enough to earn trust in future weeks.

 

YOU SHOULD READ THE NOTES

 

Rank	Pitcher	Badges	Change
1	Corbin BurnesT1	Aces Gonna Ace	-
2	Gerrit Cole	Aces Gonna Ace	-
3	Kevin Gausman	Aces Gonna Ace	-
4	Joe Musgrove T2	Aces Gonna Ace	-
5	Carlos Rodón	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	-
6	Justin Verlander	Aces Gonna Ace	-
7	Shane McClanahan	Aces Gonna Ace	-
8	Sandy Alcantara	Aces Gonna Ace	-
9	Alek Manoah	Aces Gonna Ace	-
10	Zack Wheeler	Aces Gonna Ace	-
11	Lucas Giolito T3	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
12	Max Fried	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
13	Pablo López	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
14	Chris Bassitt	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
15	Frankie Montas Jr.	Ace Potential	+4
16	Shane Bieber	Ace Potential	+6
17	Luis Severino	Ace Potential	+7
18	Tarik Skubal	Ace Potential	+10
19	Nestor Cortes	Ace Potential	+10
20	Robbie Ray	Ace Potential	-4
21	Aaron Nola	Ace Potential	-4
22	Dylan Cease	Ace Potential	-4
23	Clayton Kershaw	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	+UR
24	Walker Buehler T4	Ace Potential	-13
25	Julio Urías	Ace Potential	-5
26	Zac Gallen	Ace Potential	-5
27	Shohei Ohtani	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	-4
28	Logan Webb	Ace Potential	-3
29	Nathan Eovaldi	Ace Potential	-2
30	Yu Darvish T5	Ace Potential	-4
31	Eric Lauer	Ace Potential	-
32	Luis Castillo	Ace Potential	-2
33	Kyle Wright	Ace Potential	-1
34	José Berríos	Ace Potential	-1
35	Shane Baz T6	Ace Potential Injury Risk	+UR
36	Sean Manaea	Ace Potential	-
37	Blake Snell	Ace Potential	-
38	Logan Gilbert	Ace Potential	-
39	Joe Ryan	Ace Potential	+UR
40	MacKenzie Gore	Ace Potential	+10
41	Tony Gonsolin	Strikeout Upside	+11
42	Mike Clevinger T7	Ace Potential Injury Risk	+UR
43	Patrick Sandoval	Ace Potential	-9
44	Charlie Morton	Ace Potential	-9
45	Aaron Ashby	Ace Potential	+9
46	Triston McKenzie	Strikeout Upside	-6
47	Framber Valdez	Quality Starts	-6
48	Jameson Taillon	Toby	-
49	Jordan Montgomery	Strikeout Upside	-4
50	Cristian Javier	Strikeout Upside	+1
51	Tyler Anderson	Quality Starts	+8
52	Luis Garcia	Strikeout Upside	-6
53	George Kirby	Ace Potential	-9
54	Martín Pérez	Quality Starts	+6
55	Michael Kopech	Ace Potential	-16
56	Edward Cabrera T8	Strikeout Upside	+42
57	Spencer Strider	Strikeout Upside	+18
58	Roansy Contreras	Strikeout Upside	+3
59	Jeffrey Springs	Streaming Option	-4
60	Alex Cobb	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	-17
61	Drew Rasmussen T9	Toby	-5
62	Nick Pivetta	Strikeout Upside	+3
63	Jon Gray	Strikeout Upside	+4
64	Marcus Stroman	Quality Starts	-15
65	Noah Syndergaard	Quality Starts	-18
66	Trevor Rogers	Ace Potential	-13
67	Tyler Mahle	Strikeout Upside	-10
68	Alex Wood	Strikeout Upside	-10
69	Ian Anderson	Cherry Bomb	-7
70	Stephen Strasburg	Ace Potential Injury Risk	+UR
71	Carlos Carrasco T10	Quality Starts	-1
72	Zach Eflin	Quality Starts	+16
73	Adam Wainwright	Quality Starts	-
74	José Urquidy	Quality Starts	-
75	Marco Gonzales	Quality Starts	-3
76	Bailey Ober	Quality Starts	-12
77	Michael Lorenzen T11	Streaming Option	-14
78	Garrett Whitlock	Streaming Option	-12
79	Graham Ashcraft	Streaming Option	+21
80	Brady Singer	Cherry Bomb	-12
81	Hunter Greene	Cherry Bomb	+11
82	Miles Mikolas T12	Quality Starts	-11
83	Dane Dunning	Streaming Option	+1
84	Merrill Kelly	Quality Starts	-8
85	Cal Quantrill	Quality Starts	-8
86	Yusei Kikuchi	Strikeout Upside	-6
87	Konnor Pilkington	Streaming Option	+UR
88	Chris Flexen	Toby	-10
89	Paul Blackburn	Toby	-10
90	Corey Kluber	Toby	-9
91	Alex Faedo	Streaming Option	-2
92	Madison Bumgarner	Toby	-5
93	Kyle Gibson	Toby	-7
94	Jakob Junis	Streaming Option	-4
95	Chad Kuhl T13	Strikeout Upside	-10
96	Kyle Bradish	Strikeout Upside	-3
97	Josiah Gray	Cherry Bomb	-
98	Cole Irvin	Streaming Option	-3
99	Zach Plesac	Streaming Option	+UR
100	Matt Swarmer	Streaming Option	+UR

 

Photo by Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)