Top 100 Starting Pitchers Rankings For Fantasy Baseball 2023 – UPDATED 3/13

 

I UPDATED THIS ON MARCH 23RD – https://pitcherlist.com/top-100-starting-pitchers-rankings-for-fantasy-baseball-2023-updated-3-23/

 

Welcome to The List, where I rank the Top 100 SP for Fantasy Baseball every single Monday of the year.

Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 1:00pm ET as I live-stream its creation each week!

Have questions? My “office hours” are on Twitch 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream of The List.

For each edition of The List, I have a set of rules to outline my thought process and how to best use these rankings. Please take note:

1. This is 5×5, 12-teamer, H2H format focused. It generally is the same as roto as well, but make sure you adjust accordingly.
2. We have two tables to review before the notes and rankings. First is an injury table that outlines where players would be relatively ranked if fully healthy. It’s the best way to tackle how to value players on the IL.
3. If a player is on the IL or not confirmed inside the rotation, they aren’t on the List. That includes injuries and guys in the minors, but there are exceptions for players who are expected to be in the rotation but are being skipped this week. Spring change: Because we do different things during draft season, I’ve included IL guys and one minor leaguer in this edition.
4. Second is a table of pitchers outside the Top 100 I considered. Please read this if you can’t find your guy.
5. Since this is a 12-teamer, I heavily weigh upside in the back-half of the rankings. Tier 10 is likely going to underperform those in Tier 11 across a full season, but it’s in your best interest to chase Tier 10’s ceiling vs. settling for Tier 11’s floor.
6. I’ve made a decision to limit labels to just one label per player, with few exceptions for a second. It streamlines the process much better and hopefully gives you a more targeted understanding of the player.
7. The notes outline oh-so-much to help your team. Please read the notes if you can instead of just scrolling to the bottom.

 

Now let’s take a look at the pitchers I considered for the Top 100 but didn’t quite make the cut:

 

 

Lastly, I heavily recommend you follow my daily SP Roundup that outlines all pitcher performances through the season, as each week’s update will reflect the comments and findings from those daily articles. If you’re unfamiliar with some of the players listed, I highly recommend that you read my 45,000+ Top 300 Starting Pitchers from February. Many things will have changed, but the root of my perception of these players is outlined there.

Let’s get to it.

 

Ranking Notes

 

• This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
• Seriously. Read the notes.

 

• Nick, how could you change so much from February when there haven’t been any games played?!
• The first edition of my yearly rankings are my best attempt to sort through my thoughts and feelings of every player, and what helps the most ultimately is putting them to the test in drafts. Six weeks have passed and I’ve found myself leaning a bit differently on some players, especially mixed with spring training information, injuries, and playing time adjustments. Yes, there are things we can pull from spring training, like pitch development, velocity readings, and general rhythm.

 

• Back to the actual rankings. I swapped Gerrit Cole and Corbin Burnes. It really isn’t a big deal, but I found myself believing more in Cole’s overall arsenal more + a winning ball club + Burnes is…kinda weird? PLV hates him and he’s been off his game more than I’d like in the spring. It just didn’t feel right having him as the SP #1 in my book. So it goes.
• I did some things with the Top 10 starters. First, I had to lower Carlos Rodón after the arm injury, granting an innate +1 to many starters.

 

• I also moved down the injury concern tier of Jacob deGrom, Zack Wheeler, and Max Scherzer to an extended Tier 3. The idea of “140 innings” for deGrom is one from projections, where I feel it’s unclear if he pitches more or fewer than 100 innings – that’s too much risk for me to take inside the Top 10 starters.
• With Wheeler, I’ve been a bit spooked watching him this spring. The first game of distress against the Blue Jays was somewhat easy to shake off, but he repeated it a second time as his velocity dropped throughout the appearance. Pair that with his injury concerns from 2022 and I felt better placing Luis Castillo, Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Nola, and Spencer Strider ahead of him.
• There’s also Max Scherzer, who I’m just overall terrified of fewer than 150 frames and featuring a worse fastball. Carry on.

 

• The rest of the third tier does feature a boost for Max Fried and Julio Urías, two rocks among a bed of haze. I see another gear for Fried as he unlocks his slider and curve, while Urías has done nothing but thrive at the big-league level. The other options around them have more reasons to doubt them, even if the strikeout ceiling is higher.
• I created a new Tier 4 to complete the Aces of Dubs with Kevin Gausman leap-frogging his teammate Alek Manoah. I’ve wrestled between the two options all off-season and I’m settling on Gausman with his horrendous Hit Luck last year that should be far better. PLV adores his four-seamer and splitter, after all. Manoah’s velocity has been down this spring as well, which could just be a spring thing or an indication of what’s to come.

 

• This is where it gets all kinds of tricky and I have no qualms with you wanting to slot other guys into Tier 5 (I’ll rarely have any qualms for that matter, differing opinions are what makes this whole game fun). Considering both Carlos Rodón and Joe Musgrove could be making starts for their respective clubs by the middle of April, I didn’t want to lower them far (if at all!).
• Luis Severino is looking healthy and ready to replicate his fantastic 2022 season, just over 150+ innings this time. Nestor Cortes was slowed down by a hamstring and may be tossing just 60-70 pitches in his first turn of the rotation, but his four-seamer makes him well worth it in my book.

 

• Also consider Lance Lynn more than the ADP tells you to. He had a barking knee to kick off 2022 and once he got past it, he was his AGA self. All signs point to more of the same right now for Lynn, making him an absolute steal at his current ADP.
• I could have placed a few from Tier 6 into Tier 5, but I had to draw the line somewhere. The way I see it, you can chase Framber Valdez if you want a touch more Wins than Lynn, but the WHIP should heavily go in Lynn’s favor as Valdez is likely to have worse than his 1.16 clip from 2022.

 

• Have I been a little too high on George Kirby? After watching some of his spring training, there doesn’t seem to be a whole lot different from 2022 and I wonder if he’s still going to be a sub 25% strikeout arm. Nick, it’s spring training, you can’t make that assessment yet. Yeah, yeah, yeah, you’re not wrong at all, which is why Kirby is still firmly in the Top 30. I just can’t help but think I’m being a touch too aggressive on that outcome.
• Which is why Robbie Ray is right behind him. His history of 200+ strikeouts mixed with a strong Win chance makes Ray a solid addition to any team, especially when both numbers are likely to be better than Kirby’s. Just get that WHIP down below 1.15 this year, k thx.

 

• I know, I’m too dang high on Jesús Luzardo. But I’m in love. I have a source that he hit 100 mph in his last start and has been sitting 97 mph – matching where he was this time last season and paving the road for a possible 30% strikeout season with great ratios. The health is the major question, but so is the case for Clayton Kershaw, Blake Snell, and Chris Sale, and Luzardo’s skills are just as good with a higher chance of volume than Kershaw.
• I gave a drop to Hunter Greene as I think I was too invested in his staggering PLV marks + his command in spring is a bit shaky. Throw in the low Win chance in Cincinnati with that horrible park and he’s riskier than I was giving credit before.

 

• I look at Tier 7 and Tier 8 as the last ones I really want to go for in my drafts. Starting at Tier 9, I’m likely taking my foot off the gas pedal and likely letting the draft dictate who I take in the final rounds based on the players remaining.
• It means I’m a little more aggressive than others at this point in the draft and I can’t stop thinking we’re all too dang low on Lucas Giolito. His 2022 season feels like a lost one and he’s returned sitting 92-93 mph, already higher than he was at the end of last season. I loved what I’ve seen in his starts and I imagine that velocity rising to sit 93+ mph in the near future. He’s capable of 170+ frames of goodness and with all pitchers behind him carrying their own form of baggage, I’ll take my chances on Gio.

 

• I’m in on the Grayson Rodriguez train and I’m willing to wager everyone will be sad they didn’t jump in when he makes his starts in April. The only concern really is innings and I imagine the Orioles will have a cap around 140/150 or so – fortunately those are likely to be skipped starts instead of 4 IP outings. Draft him and enjoy.
• I’ve been too low on Charlie Morton as well, considering he’s on a team that will score runs, allow him to go six frames, and carried a 30% strikeout rate across the final four months of the year. Sure, he could get worse with his injury history and age, but it’s worth it at this point.

 

• I looked at the guys in Tier 8 and realized Dustin May has an easier path to Top 20 SP than the rest. Unlike my initial thoughts this off-season, the Dodgers’ defense seems just as good as it did last year with the addition of Miguel Rojas and May is looking like his pre-TJS self in the spring. Trust the team to force May into throwing more in his secondaries and four-seamer than the sinker and a huge impact player could be there.

 

• I adore the skills of both Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs, but I do question if both can have a proper breakout season across 160+ innings. Springs has yet to pitch over 140 innings and carries a four-seamer that gets hit hard without a solid option against left-handers, while Rasmussen hasn’t been able to consistently earn whiffs. They are both PLV darlings, though, and I hope to see that extra gear.
• Yeaaaaah I don’t want to chase Logan Gilbert. He needs a legit #2 pitch and I don’t believe the slider or curve to be that at the moment while it’s unwise to bet his new splitter can be that pitch for him. I’d welcome him on all my teams, but I have less hope for him to reach his ceiling.

 

• The same goes for Triston McKenzie, whose command I just don’t trust. He found his way in the zone enough in 2022 to carry a sub 8% walk rate, but it felt like a peak that was to come down in 2023. He’s looked lost in spring thus far without signs of ironing out his 2022 kinks, and I’m scared of what’s to come. If McKenzie can command his fastball up while removing the plethora of waste pitches we witness on his slider and curveball, then he’ll shoot up the list during the season. I have my doubts.

 

• There are two young arms I want to talk about in Tier 8. Reid Detmers has been a target of mine this pre-season and while I’m not out on him, I do wonder if I’m projecting my ideals a bit too much as his four-seamer and curve may not be as good as I want them to be. That said, he’s apparently throwing harder in the spring and I just can’t quit the man.
• At the very end of Top 51 – AKA The guys I like drafting – is Hunter Brown as he’s primed to be the SP #5 for the Astros out of the gate with Lance McCullers Jr. nursing an arm injury. Brown’s skill set speaks to a strong starter for Houston with a great team supporting him and I think he becomes an arm you never drop the entire season. I don’t feel super convinced about anyone after this, marking Brown as the last “yeah, he’s great” arm on The List.

 

• H’ok, the back-half of The List is here and it’s a massive up-for-grabs. Seriously, I can see ways that all of these pitchers through #100 become legit pitchers to roster this season and if you feel strongly about one of them, by all Johns means, go for it.
• Why not lead off with some upside? Kodai Senga gets a great start against the Marlins and features mid-to-uppers 90s heat with a legit splitter and solid slider. I worry about his injuries and if he’s ultimately a Cherry Bomb, but take the shot here because why not?

 

• That why not is why Tyler Glasnow is here despite his injury – he’ll help when he pitches, which I can’t say about everyone here. Consider him around this point of the draft.
• Jordan Montgomery should generally be a good addition, though, as well as Sonny Gray, Luis Garcia, and Brady Singer…even if Singer is a two-pitch pitcher who doesn’t look a whole lot different from his 2021/2022 self.

 

• I’m down to see how Kenta Maeda looks now that’s he’s fully returned from TJS. Remember, he’s routinely been a 25%+ strikeout arm and the Twins should win him some games.
• With a healthy knee surgery allowing him to theoretically carry consistent velocity moving forward, Michael Kopech should be considered in all your drafts. Remember, it’s about weighing upside more than floor at this point – you’ll be able to tell early in the season if Kopech is working out. If it doesn’t, we move on.

 

• In Tier 10, I’m worried about Jack Flaherty’s velocity and his lack of slider whiffs thus far. It’s been a long time since we’ve seen him as his prime self and while I have no issue chasing this, it seems like a lower chance to hit than others.
• Monitor Tyler Mahle’s velocity this spring – if he’s able to sit 94+ mph by the end, he’ll jump into the end of Tier 8. Right now, he’s at 93 mph, so he’s down in Tier 10.

 

• I’m digging the look of Taillon’s new breakers with the Cubs and when paired with a solid matchup against the Brewers to start the year, I’m down to draft him, start him for at least one game and take it from there.
• I’m out on both Kyle Wright and Patrick Sandoval. Wright is already dealing with a shoulder injury & his 2022 season felt a bit like smoke and mirrors with his curve acting as his only strong offering. As for The Irish Panada, I’m concerned about his high WHIP sticking around for another season, rooted in his hittable heaters and inconsistent changeup.

 

• The final few are more sturdy than the others. Take Marcus Stroman or Tyler Anderson if want chances for six frames, or maybe Alex Cobb’s new slider is actually a game changer for him.
• If Nathan Eovaldi’s velocity is in fact at 96+ mph, then we’re back on board here. So far so good, save for a small setback this spring with side tightness.

 

• Tier 11 is where the legit fun comes in. I imagine I’ll be able to get a ton of these in the final rounds of 12-team drafts and feel free to pick your favorite.
• Do you want to bank on a Trevor Rogers redemption? Matthew Boyd earned all the spring strikeouts with his velocity back to normal? Maybe Hayden Wesneski as the #5 for the Cubs with his wicked breaker?

 

• There’s Sean Manaea apparently sitting three ticks up at 94+ mph. Spencer Turnbull looking as filthy as ever as he returns from TJS. Domingo Germán with a secure spot in the Yankee rotation and flashing increased velocity. Ross Stripling and Noah Syndergaard improving under the guidance of new coaching. There’s so much to chase here.
• Don’t forget Steven Matz who we were amped about last season when he joined the Cardinals, only to be pulled off the field injury before 50 IP thrown. He’s looking ready to be the guy we were excited about last spring.

 

• Tier 12 is your last chance at upside. Do I like to draft these players? Not really, but I recognize things could fall their way when the season starts. Maybe Justin Steele has his four-seamer returning whiffs consistently or Graham Ashcraft has found the feel for his cutter and slider.
• The hype around Kyle Bradish focus on his slider and curve and ignores the cut action on his four-seamer that finds its way into barrels. I won’t rule out an adjustment being made to get more out of the breakers and resist the fastball usage.

 

• I kinda love Garrett Whitlock for the season ahead, but a draft pick spent on Whitlock forces you to sit on your hands a bit as he’s likely on the sidelines for at least a week to start the year.
• I just can’t deal with José Berríos. He’s The Great Undulator for a reason and even with the massively unfortunate Hit Luck last season, I believe it’ll be such a tough decision as a manager in April to determine if I believe in him or not. I’m not letting myself go through it.

 

• I never thought I’d have Yusei Kikuchi ranked above Berríos, but I can’t ignore his string of double-digit whiff games across spring training thus far. Do I believe it? Not really, but I recognize there is a chance he’s figured something out.
• Lastly, I watched Mike Clevinger’s outing and saw glimpses of what made us excited years ago. The breakers looked good, the changeup was on point, and there could be some value here.

 

• In the final tier, I recognize that some want those Toby types and left them in here – Taijuan Walker, Merrill Kelly, Aaron Civale, and José Urquidy. The latter arm fell demonstrably as his velocity has been down this spring, resulting in some rough outings. I think something is up here and I’m avoiding him.
• Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo are often overlooked in drafts despite having the #4/#5 spots for the Padres (who may have a six-man even when Joe Musgrove returns). There are few better situations than pitching for San Diego at the moment and I believe both could return strikeout rates above 20% with solid ratios and Wins to back it up. Take note of them.

 

• There was a moment this spring when Eduardo Rodriguez was sitting 1.5 ticks harder on his heater and I’d monitor his velocity to see if it returns. 2022 was one of those weird years and if he has that four-seamer cooking with changeups down, E-Rod could return to form to help fantasy managers.
• Lastly, I feel that Brandon Pfaadt is an impact pitcher in fantasy leagues this season. He’ll be in Triple-A to start the year unless an injury befalls the Diamondbacks, and I’m betting he gets the first call to the rotation before Ryne Nelson. His four-seamer and slider are both legit pitches and will help your teams right away – it’s just a matter of how long you’re willing to stash him.

 

 

SCROLL BACK UP AND READ THE NOTES

 

(Welcome back)

 

Rank	Pitcher	Badges	Change
1	Gerrit ColeT1	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
2	Corbin Burnes	Aces Gonna Ace	-1
3	Sandy Alcantara	Aces Gonna Ace	-
4	Shane McClanahan T2	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	+1
5	Brandon Woodruff	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
6	Justin Verlander	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
7	Luis Castillo	Aces Gonna Ace	+4
8	Aaron Nola	Aces Gonna Ace	+4
9	Shohei Ohtani	Aces Gonna Ace Playing Time Question	+4
10	Spencer Strider	Aces Gonna Ace	+4
11	Jacob deGrom T3	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	-2
12	Zack Wheeler	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	-4
13	Max Scherzer	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	-3
14	Max Fried	Aces Gonna Ace	+3
15	Cristian Javier	Aces Gonna Ace	-
16	Julio Urías	Aces Gonna Ace	+4
17	Kevin Gausman T4	Aces Gonna Ace	+4
18	Dylan Cease	Aces Gonna Ace	-2
19	Alek Manoah	Aces Gonna Ace	-1
20	Yu Darvish	Aces Gonna Ace	+4
21	Zac Gallen	Aces Gonna Ace	-2
22	Shane Bieber	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
23	Carlos Rodón T5	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	-19
24	Joe Musgrove	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	+1
25	Luis Severino	Ace Potential Injury Risk	+7
26	Nestor Cortes	Ace Potential Injury Risk	-
27	Lance Lynn	Ace Potential Injury Risk	+6
28	Framber Valdez T6	Ace Potential	+1
29	George Kirby	Ace Potential	-2
30	Robbie Ray	Ace Potential	+5
31	Jesús Luzardo	Ace Potential Injury Risk	+11
32	Clayton Kershaw	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	-1
33	Blake Snell	Ace Potential Injury Risk	+1
34	Hunter Greene	Ace Potential	-6
35	Logan Webb	Ace Potential	-5
36	Chris Sale	Ace Potential Injury Risk	+8
37	Lucas Giolito T7	Ace Potential	+12
38	Joe Ryan	Ace Potential	-
39	Grayson Rodriguez	Ace Potential Playing Time Question	+6
40	Pablo López	Ace Potential Injury Risk	-1
41	Charlie Morton	Ace Potential Injury Risk	+10
42	Nick Lodolo	Ace Potential	-1
43	Dustin May	Ace Potential	+9
44	Drew Rasmussen T8	Ace Potential	+3
45	Jeffrey Springs	Ace Potential	+3
46	Logan Gilbert	Ace Potential	-10
47	Reid Detmers	Ace Potential	-1
48	Freddy Peralta	Ace Potential Injury Risk	-5
49	Triston McKenzie	Ace Potential	-9
50	Chris Bassitt	Ace Potential	-13
51	Hunter Brown	Ace Potential Playing Time Question	+17
52	Kodai Senga T9	Ace Potential	+2
53	Jordan Montgomery	Ratio Focused	+10
54	Kenta Maeda	Ace Potential	-1
55	Michael Kopech	Ace Potential	+3
56	Tyler Glasnow	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	-34
57	Andrew Heaney	Ace Potential Injury Risk	-7
58	Tony Gonsolin	Ace Potential Injury Risk	-3
59	Sonny Gray	Strikeout Upside	+5
60	Luis Garcia	Ratio Focused	+12
61	Brady Singer	Cherry Bomb	+4
62	Jack Flaherty T10	Ace Potential Injury Risk	-1
63	Tyler Mahle	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	-6
64	Jameson Taillon	Quality Starts	+5
65	Jon Gray	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	-6
66	Zach Eflin	Quality Starts	+12
67	Kyle Wright	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	-11
68	Patrick Sandoval	Cherry Bomb	-2
69	Nathan Eovaldi	Cherry Bomb	+23
70	Alex Cobb	Cherry Bomb	+12
71	Marcus Stroman	Quality Starts	-
72	Tyler Anderson	Quality Starts	-10
73	Trevor Rogers T11	Strikeout Upside	+7
74	Hayden Wesneski	Strikeout Upside	+14
75	Matthew Boyd	Strikeout Upside	+UR
76	Sean Manaea	Strikeout Upside	+UR
77	Spencer Turnbull	Strikeout Upside	+9
78	Edward Cabrera	Strikeout Upside	+3
79	Domingo Germán	Strikeout Upside	+14
80	Ross Stripling	Ratio Focused	+3
81	Noah Syndergaard	Ratio Focused	-5
82	Steven Matz	Ratio Focused	+UR
83	Justin Steele T12	Cherry Bomb	+17
84	Garrett Whitlock	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	-7
85	Graham Ashcraft	Cherry Bomb	+UR
86	Kyle Bradish	Strikeout Upside	+UR
87	Carlos Carrasco	Cherry Bomb	-14
88	Alex Wood	Cherry Bomb	+UR
89	Mike Clevinger	Cherry Bomb	+UR
90	Yusei Kikuchi	Cherry Bomb	+UR
91	José Berríos	Cherry Bomb	-24
92	Nick Martinez T13	Cherry Bomb	-8
93	Seth Lugo	Cherry Bomb	-8
94	Eduardo Rodriguez	Cherry Bomb	+5
95	Aaron Civale	Cherry Bomb	+1
96	José Urquidy	Toby	-26
97	David Peterson	Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	+UR
98	Taijuan Walker	Toby	-7
99	Merrill Kelly	Toby	-9
100	Brandon Pfaadt	Ace Potential Stash Option	+UR

 

Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)