First base has all of the usual suspects in the top two tiers, led by Vladimir Gurrerro Jr. and Freddie Freeman, and even through tiers three and four we see a glut of veteran players with very few exceptions.
In a position dominated by veteran hitters who remain at the top of their game, I’ve made it a priority in 12-team leagues to grab one of the top five if I can, as that’s when we see the first significant drop off. If you miss out on one of those elite bats, I’d pick at least one or two targets in the third or fourth tier that you are willing to reach to get and make sure you secure one.
In deeper formats, first base feels deeper as the replacement level drops, especially due to the number of high volume bats you can find in tier five. I’d still target one of those top five bats if possible; however, missing out is not nearly as harsh as it is in 12-teamers.
Note on Tiers: While the players are ranked in the same order as they appear in the Top 300, the tiers have been reconstructed to better reflect how talent is distributed at the position.
Tier 1
1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B/3B, TOR) — I admit I thought Vlad Jr. was on the decline after watching that rolling chart point down through 2022 and 2023 and into the start of 2024, but Vladito turned it on in the second half and showed us a spike in power we hadn’t seen since his breakout in 2021. Guerrero always kept the bat-to-ball ability, but grounders were crushing his upside until he found a way to break their spell in the summer. A Vlad who puts the ball in the air (as in line drives plus fly balls) more than 60% of the time is an extremely dangerous hitter. Heck, possibly even a top-five hitter. The floor is quite high regardless, really, but that second half showed us that the 40-home run power in his 2021 campaign may not have been a fluke after all.
2. Freddie Freeman (1B, LAD) — In Freeman’s first 100 games of 2024, he was on pace for about 26 home runs and over 200 combined runs and RBI. An injury and a bit of a slump later, and we wound up seeing Freeman’s worst combined run and RBI totals since 2017, with just 22 home runs. The home run power has fluctuated throughout his career, with the range of outcomes being somewhere between 21 and 31 over the last four seasons, but the 81 runs and 89 RBI make very little sense considering his .282/.378/.476 in the heart of one of the most explosive offenses in baseball.
I think we just have to acknowledge that Freeman is more of a mid-20s home run guy but there is no way we see such low counting stat totals again if he stays healthy. I am expecting double-digit steals and well over 200 combined runs and RBI to go along with exceptional ratios and one of the highest floors in the game.
Fun fact: 2024 was the first time Freeman missed more than four games in a season since 2017. He’s only missed more than 15 games in a season twice since his first full season in the majors back in 2011 (2015 and 2017).
Tier 2
3. Bryce Harper (1B, PHI) — We finally got more than 140 games from Bryce Harper again, and since 2018, playing at least 140 games means at least 30 home runs. Like Freeman, I am unsure why or how the counting stats ended up so low for Harper, who hit a ton and got on base with extreme regularity for a very good offense. Starting in July, Harper’s run and RBI totals stayed shockingly low even though the Phillies were a top-10 offense. July can be explained by injury and a slump, but his counting stats remain suppressed in August and September despite a 143 wRC+. From August 15 to September 5, Harper had 19 hits and just three RBI while batting third.
Again, like Freeman, I suspect the low counting stats were more a product of bad luck than any kind of degradation of skill or supporting cast, so as long as Harper stays healthy he should get to 30 home runs and 200 combined runs and RBI. Of the three first basemen in this tier, he’s definitely the most likely to hit 35 home runs given a full season; however, he’s also definitely the most likely to miss more than 20 games, so I’ve ranked him at the bottom of this little cluster. If you’re less risk-averse or you’re in a shallow league where the replacement level at first base is quite high, I could see you moving him up one or two spots.
4. Matt Olson (1B, ATL) — Olson’s slow start in 2024 left many asking whether the 54 home runs in 2023 were a fluke. Maybe they were, and that’s OK because down the stretch Olson showed us that he can absolutely still be the 35 home run masher we’ve seen multiple times in his career. Olson’s struggles were difficult to put my thumb on as there wasn’t some glaring flaw in his stats (apart from the production itself) to explain what was going on.
When I see a player with an established track record inexplicably underperform and then correct course and go back to being what I expected, I’m likely to disregard the struggles (or at the very least, not think too hard about them). It is a bit lazy, admittedly, but focusing too much on the small set of bad performances isn’t likely to tell me a whole lot. Olson has 1,061 games under his belt, and the vast majority of them show us a guy with plus-plus power who will hit somewhere around .250. As I mentioned before, 35 home runs feel like the right benchmark, though there’s an upside for 40+ if things break the way they did in 2023.
5. Pete Alonso (1B, NYM) — I firmly believe that Alonso’s 2024 home run and counting stat totals are a healthy floor for the Polar Bear regardless of where he ends up in 2025. While the batting average is never going to help you, .240 is a lot more reasonable than the bad-luck-driven .217 from 2023, and despite hitting fewer home runs than he had in the four full seasons prior, he had the second-best hard-hit rate of his career.
Alonso is a premier power asset who has been remarkably durable throughout his career. He’s a safe play at a position where top talent dries up quickly, and he’s especially valuable to those who find themselves a bit behind on power or who have taken some health gambles early on.
Tier 3
6. Christian Walker (1B, HOU) — I’m not overly concerned with the five-point uptick in strikeout rate in 2024, as the Walker we saw in 2024 is basically the same as the one we saw from 2022-2023.
Walker should be a threat to hit 35 home runs in Houston, as the home-run-grabbing Crawford Boxes in left field are right where Walker wants to hit the ball. He should also be able to get to 90 RBI without too much issue hitting fourth, though he’ll need to stay healthy (he’s missed 30 or more games in two of the last four seasons). As for ratios, Walker has been quite steady, hitting roughly .250 over the last four seasons and posting an OBP near .330.
Walker ought to be a solid first baseman in all formats, though if you’re in an OBP format or are punting batting average and/or steals (a workable strategy in weekly leagues), you can probably bump him up a tier.
7. Salvador Perez (C/1B, KCR) — Sal is still Sal, folks. He swings a lot, hits home runs, drives in runners, and plays every day. Sure, he’ll have some brutal stretches because those fly balls aren’t going quite far enough, but as long as the Royals can be even an average offense (they were 13th in run scoring in 2024), his 25 or more home runs should drive in over 100 runners, and he should once again be one of baseball’s most reliable backstops.
8. Josh Naylor (1B, ARI) — Josh Naylor’s breakout actually began in the summer of 2023 when he started getting more balls in the air. While Naylor doesn’t have top-tier raw power in terms of exit velocity or barrel rates, he does do a nice job pulling fly balls, which makes the most of the above-average power he brings to the table.
The move to Arizona is a neutral home park change for lefties, though the home run factor for both parks is a bit rough. Still, hitting behind Carroll and Marte should allow him to put up at least as many counting stats as he did in Cleveland last year, with the upside for more.
9. Vinnie Pasquantino (1B, KCR) — Vinnie P has fantastic bat-to-ball skills, though we’ve seen the walk rate fade over his first three seasons. Why? From what I can tell, he is getting more aggressive early in the count. That’s not a bad thing, though, as a whopping 17 of his 19 home runs came in an 0-0, 0-1, or 1-0 count.
While we’d all love to see a hitter who walks as often as he strikes out, a player with Vinnie P’s contact ability is best served attacking the ball early in the count, especially when he has no issues getting the ball in the air in those situations. I previously believed Pasquantino’s power cap was around 20 home runs. Still, if he can keep punishing early pitches while staying healthy, we could see something closer to 25 home runs with over 100 RBI and a strong batting average. His ceiling isn’t as high as some young first baseman’s, but the higher floor makes up for it.
10. Cody Bellinger (1B/OF, NYY) — Yankee Stadium is the best park for left-handed power within a mile of sea level, making it a perfect fit for the pull-hitting Bellinger to get back to 25 home runs. A move to one of the best offenses in baseball and into one of the friendliest parks for his power is incredible for his fantasy value, and even though Bellinger has been difficult to project from year to year due to his shockingly low hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, a healthy Bellinger should be a solid addition to any fantasy squad.
11. Triston Casas (1B, BOS) — Casas struggled with strikeouts after returning from injury in August, but it was good to see him clobber five home runs and prove he still had the pop we saw at the start of the year. Casas should be fully healthy to begin 2025, though injuries have marred much of his early career.
Casas could absolutely hit 30 home runs in a full season with an OBP north of .360, but he’ll need to be healthy and continue to show growth against lefties. It’s a gamble due to the rough replacement cost at the position, but it’s a gamble that many projections expect to pay off.
12. Jake Burger (1B/3B, TEX) — It took until July, but Burger finally unleashed the power we expected after he hit 34 home runs in 2023. In his 75 games from July 1 to the end of the season, Burger smashed 22 home runs and 15 doubles while hitting .278.
Streakiness comes with the territory when it comes to players with Burger’s pull-heavy, fly-ball-oriented profile, though some of that might be smoothed out by the dramatic improvement in the home ballpark as he moves from Miami to Texas, as Globe Life Field is a top-five park for right-handed home runs while his former home in Miami is the sixth-worst park for right-handed home runs.
It will, at times, be brutal, but Burger should get to 30 home runs in Texas, and while Texas’s offense is undoubtedly better than Miami’s, the counting stats won’t really change unless Burger can work his way up the batting order. Roster Resource has him slotted into the eighth spot, and while he may start in that role, there are plenty of opportunities to move up past guys like Evan Carter and Adolis García if he starts swinging a hot bat. If Burger gets locked into the fifth spot, he could very well approach 100 RBI, though 90 is a more realistic target.
13. Luis Arraez (1B/2B, SDP) — Arraez played with an injured thumb that he surgically repaired in the offseason, though even with the injury, Arraez was mostly what we expected him to be. It’s possible the injured thumb is what kept the power even lower than usual, though, in reality, you’re drafting Arraez because you want a huge boost to your batting average and 80-90 runs scored.
In points leagues, Arraez gets a boost of about a tier (maybe two, if your league heavily penalizes strikeouts), though it’s worth noting that he should be dropped a tier in OBP leagues. But Scott, Arraez has a career OBP of .372 and it was .393 in 2023! Yes, he does have a good OBP, no doubt about it; however, a .370-.380 OBP is not nearly the ratio boost his career .323 batting average provides. Arraez’s .314 batting average led the National League and was fourth in all of baseball, and most importantly, it was a solid 30 points higher than the 20th-best batting average (Freddie Freeman’s .282). When you look at the OBP leaderboard, though, Arraez ranked just 28th, and most of the top-100 qualified hitters in OBP are within 30 points of his .346 OBP.
In other words, Arraez brings huge value in batting average leagues, but that ratio advantage is much more modest in OBP. It seems obvious when you say it to yourself, but I still see Arraez go too high in plenty of OBP formats.
Tier 4
14. Alec Bohm (1B/3B, PHI) — Bohm finished as a top-60 player per the FanGraphs player rater thanks to his fantastic start to the season, hitting .300 in the first half with 10 home runs and 68 RBI over 82 games, which over an entire season would have been 20 home runs and over 130 RBI. That’s a Freddie Freeman clone in terms of production.
Alas, the breakout into stardom was not meant to be. Over his remaining 61 games (he missed a few weeks in September due to injury), he hit just .253 with five home runs and 29 RBI, which would have been 13 home runs and about 75 RBI over a full season. That’s not even a top-150 hitter (per FanGraphs, he was the 194th-best fantasy hitter in the same tier as Jared Triolo and Santiago Espinal).
Throughout a full season, Bohm’s floor is safe as he should keep hitting fifth or so for the Phillies and should hit around 15 home runs with a decent number of RBI (he has exactly 97 in each of the last two seasons). His reliance on BABIP due to his contact-oriented profile and preference to hit the ball up the middle or the opposite way makes him mostly a dull floor play in 12-teamers.
Those of you in points leagues or who play deep roto will value Bohm a lot more than I do here. He’s a solid floor play for ratios and decent counting stats, which will either make a lot of sense or no sense at all at this stage of your draft.
15. Yandy Díaz (1B, TBR) — The 22 home runs from 2023 were pretty darn fluky. It’s hardly a surprise that Yandy only hit 14 home runs in 2024, and the only real shock was how poorly Yandy hit in April, slashing .220/.290/.288 with a single home run, the worst month of his career by quite a wide margin (min. 100 plate appearances).
From the start of May to the end of the season, Yandy hit a much more familiar and expected .297/.355/.447, with all of the other stats being roughly in line with his career averages (apart from counting stats, though that’s less on him and more on the state of the Rays lineup).
Yandy will hit a ton of ground balls, 15 or so home runs, and give you a nice set of ratios with decent counting stats. The ceiling and the floor are incredibly close together. While that isn’t always what you’re looking for at this draft stage, you can sleep well knowing that if you’ve found yourself taking too many risks across your roster and need to glue together some ratios and counting stats, Yandy will be there for you.
I’ll note that I rank Yandy below Bohm by a few spots due to Bohm’s advantage in counting stats and team context. In OBP formats, Yandy would be a tier above Bohm.
16.
88. Spencer Steer (1B/OF, CIN) — Everything looked awesome before the All-Star break. Steer had 15 home runs, 14 steals, 60 RBI, and the world was his oyster. Following the break, things got ugly fast, as he hit .198/.291/.344 with just five home runs and 32 RBI over the final 63 games of the season.
The issue was primarily that the power wholly eroded. Steer’s success was mainly fueled by making good decisions and being a little better than average at contact with merely average power, which doesn’t sound like much. Still, it was plenty for hitting home runs in Great American Ballpark. The rest of the profile remained steady, but the power continued falling apart.
Despite all that, Steer finished as a top-10 first baseman, and he’s shown he can sustain power numbers for extended periods, even if our metrics find the power a bit dubious. The bottom could call out at any moment (and has more than once), and the skills themselves aren’t all that eye-popping, but he’s got enough to succeed in Great American Ballpark, also known as Coors East.
Injury update: Steer injured his shoulder and may start the season on the IL. I suspect his rank to drop if that becomes a certainty, and it would raise up teammate Christian Encarnacion-Strand.
17. Isaac Paredes (1B/3B, HOU) — Paredes is the king of pulled fly balls, and the trade to Houston gives him an ideal place to park those pulled fly balls, thanks to the Crawford Boxes. I’m targeting Paredes everywhere because I love his extreme nature and think he can return to 30 home runs, but I also admit that he looked putrid for the Cubs. Statcast has been waiting for the bottom to fall out on Paredes due to his low exit velocities, but I think there’s a chance for him to be a top-75 hitter.
Don’t just take my word for it, though: Michael Hanlon also included Paredes in his article on sleepers at third base.
18. Paul Goldschmidt (1B, NYY) — Good news first: Goldschmidt still hits the ball hard very often and has a barrel rate in the double digits, and he’s heading into a great situation in the Bronx with a better home ballpark and a better lineup ahead of him.
The bad news is that Goldy has never frequently pulled fly balls to take advantage of that new park he calls home. His ability to make contact in the zone has faded, and he swings outside the zone more often. He also falls behind in counts more often, and for two straight seasons, he’s been rather average against fastballs. All of this has predictably led to an erosion of his once-mighty walk rate and elevated his strikeout rate.
Perhaps his new team can fix many of these issues (or find ways to mitigate them), but it’s hard to see something other than a 37-year-old slugger with fading skills. The opportunity and history suggest there’s a potential profit to be had here, but the days of calling Goldschmidt a lock to be a top-100 hitter are over.
Tier 5
19. Michael Busch (1B, CHC) — Michael Busch’s upside is worth chasing against right-handed pitching, but against lefties, it’s just weak fly ball after weak fly ball. Maybe you can consider him a full-time guy in OBP formats, but he’ll be tough to trust in weeks where Busch will face a slew of southpaws.
20. Christian Encarnacion-Strand (1B, CIN) — Encarnacion-Strand was one of the league’s worst hitters in his 123 healthy plate appearances, largely due to a spiked ground ball rate that, given time, I think he could work through. CES is an extremely aggressive hitter who isn’t all that keen on taking pitches (3.3% walk rate in 2024), so he’s particularly prone to ups and downs based on batted ball luck and whether he’s hitting the ball in the air at any given moment.
21. Alec Burleson (1B/OF, STL) — Burleson was a full-time player in 2024, and it led to a top-60 finish among hitters thanks to 21 home runs, plenty of counting stats, and a .269 batting average. So what’s he doing all the way down here? Simply put, Burleson can’t hit same-sided pitching.
In 163 career plate appearances against southpaws, Burleson has a 49 wRC+. For those who don’t use wRC+ with regularity, it means that he was 51% worse than an average player against left-handed pitching. This is despite just a 13.8% strikeout rate against them. Usually, this can be explained by grounders or something, but in this case, it’s just really poorly hit baseballs.
Even in a platoon, Burleson can provide fantasy value thanks to his plus power and contact ability. He’ll likely hit second when he’s in the lineup, and given 500 plate appearances (that’s about 110-120 games, give or take), he could hit another 18-20 home runs with a fair number of runs and RBI and a .270 batting average. Combine that production with his eligibility in both the infield and outfield, and you’ve got yourself a nice piece to a roster.
22. Nathaniel Lowe (1B, WSH) — While Lowe is prone to slumps due to his high ground ball rate, you can rest assured knowing that at the end of the season, Lowe is going to have played a lot of games and will hit something like .265/.360/.410 with 16-18 home runs and approximately 75 RBI. His ceiling is that of a fringe top-100 player (I don’t consider his 2021 season repeatable in any way), and his floor is that of a fringe top-150 player. It’s not exciting, but it pays certain bills. He’s more valuable than that in OBP and points formats, though.
Lowe has a new home in the Nation’s Capital, but honestly, this doesn’t change much about what to expect from Lowe. It could limit his counting stat totals, but not any more than they were limited by that Ranger offense last season.
For even more on Lowe, check out Michael Hanlon’s article on sleepers at first base.
23. Ryan Mountcastle (1B, BAL) — Mountcastle has hit at least .270 for two consecutive seasons and has been a reliable, if unexciting, option at first base who plays every day when healthy for a good offense. Mountcastle did not barrel the ball the way we hoped in 2024, but new dimensions at Camden Yards should help his fly balls have a better chance of leaving the yard. Health has been an issue as Mountcastle has played in fewer than 125 games in each of the last two seasons, but a full season should lead to 20 home runs for the first time since 2022. The ceiling isn’t terribly high (2021 looks like it will always be the best of his career), but steady production isn’t a bad thing.
24. Andrew Vaughn (1B, CHW) — Vaughn’s final line for 2024 was marred by his horrific start to the season, hitting .192/.254/.246 over his first 35 games with zero home runs and just seven RBI for a wRC+ of 43 (and remember, league average is 100). He was much better over the remaining 114 games, hitting 19 home runs, driving in 63 runners, and a line of .261/.310/.448. Vaughn won’t turn 27 until after the season starts so it’s possible he has another level to his game waiting to be unlocked, but my gut says that 20 home runs and 80 RBI are about as good as it can possibly get for Vaughn with his current batted ball profile and the fact he’s stuck in baseball’s worst offense. Vaughn is best deployed in deeper formats that will appreciate his volume, but in shallower leagues, I’d rather chase more upside.
25. Michael Toglia (1B/OF, COL) — The 6’5 corner man put on a show when he returned to the majors in June, hitting 12 home runs in a 28-game stretch from June 15 to the All-Star Break, with six coming in the last six games.
Toglia hits the ball fantastically hard (92.2 mph average exit velocity) and has power to all fields, though he also strikes out well over 30% of the time and struggles to get his batting average over .200 even when playing half his games in Coors.
Toglia should hit near the middle of the order for Colorado and play every day, and with that playing time comes a shot at a 30-home-run season and 10 steals to go with it. OBP leaguers and ratio punters can slide Toglia up a tier, but those in batting average leagues who care about batting average will need to have drafted some batting average contributors earlier on to offset the serious damage he does to you in that category.
It’s also worth mentioning that Toglia probably won’t be a consistent contributor to runs and RBI due to how awful this offense is on the road (and just in general, really). That said, Toglia’s power plays in any stadium, so the home runs will keep popping off even on road trips (though everything else will dry up).
For even more on Toglia, check out Michael Hanlon’s article on sleepers at first base.
26. Jake Cronenworth (1B/2B, SDP) — I squeezed one more high-floor, low-ceiling player in this tier because it’s my list, and I can do whatever I want. Cronenworth’s totals at the end of the season will probably land him somewhere in the top 125 among hitters, mostly from sheer volume. He’ll hit 17-18 home runs and drive in around 70-80 runners hitting behind Arraez, Tatis Jr., Merrill, and Machado. The batting average will be around .240, and the OBP will be slightly less lame .325 or so.
And that’s it. He does yeoman’s work in points leagues due to his sub-20% strikeout rate and ample plate appearances, but in category leagues, you’ll probably want to chase something better at times over the season. When you wonder what the replacement level is for first and second base, you’re looking at it right here in Cronenworth.
27. Rhys Hoskins (1B, MIL) — I hoped that Rhys Hoskins would come right back to being the same ol’ Rhys on his return after missing all of 2023, and in many ways, he did: Hoskins hit over 25 home runs, drove in 82 runners, and walked over 10% of the time. Unfortunately, his strikeout rate also spiked a bit, and his pull-heavy profile led to many easy outs. Hoskins can still provide solid home run and RBI totals, but they’ll come with harshly negative ratios. If you’re not worried about batting average (a workable build in most H2H category leagues), Rhys is a great option late, but points leaguers and Roto players should only look for Rhys in specific scenarios.
Tier 6
28. Jeimer Candelario (1B/3B, CIN) — If Candelario wins a starting job for the Reds, he could easily hit 25 home runs over 140 games and pile up some decent counting stats in the process. If he winds up somewhere less friendly to hitters (which is everywhere outside of Colorado) or gets a platoonmate, he’s not someone I’d draft. This ranking splits the difference, as the Reds want to give Candelario a job.
29. Jonathan Aranda (1B/2B, TBR) — Aranda was just finding his power stroke at the end of 2024, hitting .269/.342/.552 with five home runs and four doubles in his last 20 games with an average exit velocity of 91.4 mph. That kind of power is intriguing to say the least, though how exactly Aranda gets regular playing time in Tampa is a huge unknown. He’s eligible at both first and second in Yahoo leagues (just first base everywhere else), and I love scooping him up at the end of a draft if I want to take a flyer on power. You might have to drop him within two or three weeks because the playing time isn’t there, but if he somehow carves out a role, we could be looking at 23-25 home runs with decent ratios.
30. Nolan Schanuel (1B, LAA) — Schanuel doesn’t have much power to speak of, but his willingness to walk and ability to slap the ball around the field should make him a useful points league player who has streamer upside in 12-teamers. Schanuel has a bit more of a platoon risk this year than he did last year thanks to the very random veteran adds made by the Angels, which is a tough pill to swallow for a player with low upside like Schanuel. He’ll outperform this rank if he plays all season, though his path to the top 100 is almost impossible to see as Schanuel just doesn’t hit the ball hard enough, run fast enough, or play for a good enough offense to make much statistical noise in any specific category.
Also Ranked
Ryan O’Hearn
Deyvison De Los Santos
Jonah Bride
Luke Raley
Josh Bell
Spencer Torkelson
Tyler Soderstrom
LaMonte Wade Jr.
Spencer Horwitz
Jose Miranda
Carlos Santana
Pavin Smith
Kris Bryant
Seth Brown
Oswaldo Cabrera
Bryce Eldridge
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Doug Carlin (@Bdougals on Twitter)
