Top 400 Starting Pitchers For Fantasy Baseball 2024: 201-250 SPs

SP Rankings for 2024 Fantasy Baseball: 201 - 250 Starting Pitchers

Welcome to the Top 400 Starting Pitchers For 2024 Fantasy Baseball. This is an update to my Top 200 Starting Pitchers For 2024 from October last year.

After shoving all my strategies and write-ups of all 400 players + something close to 300 videos into one article, I quickly found out it crashed phones and browsers, and I felt like an idiot. I’m so sorry everyone, I really should have just done these individually spliced articles first.

Here’s what we’ve done:

  • All ranks are now spliced into groups of 20, 25, and 50
  • Rankings Philosophy article to read separately
  • Left the main up for those who can handle it

Please read the Rankings Philosophy article before reading the rankings. I cannot express enough how it outlines my thoughts on drafting in 12-teamers and why I have ranked these players as I have.

Thanks for your passion and enthusiasm for this article – it pushes me more every year, and I already have new ideas for next year to make this easier a better presentation for all of you.




Tier 18 – Bring Out Yer IL (Cont’d)

More IL stashes (and now a closer and I HATE IT), with most being ones to let you know they shouldn’t be starting this year. It’s sad, y’all.


201. Mason Miller (OAK, RHP)

WHAT HAVE THEY DONE. The Athletics announced they are likely to make him the closer for 2024 and I’m in shambles. It makes sense on paper as a way to limit his total workload for the season, though the regularity of relieving is its own way of putting stress on the arm that isn’t present when starting…BUT WHATEVER. If Miller actually starts again, his ceiling is tremendous with a four-seamer that has all the qualities you want at 98/99 mph (and has hit 101 multiple times) + a 94 mph cutter that will be his strike pitch + a filthy slider that will grade super high PLV marks once he lands more strikes with it. I’m so sad.


202. Germán Márquez (COL, RHP)

He’s recovering from TJS and y’all know that he has some moments where the slider and curve do enough to stave off the damage his fastballs allow, but why put yourself through that again, especially when it comes with the concern of what he’ll look like when returning from TJS? This ain’t it.


203. JT Brubaker (PIT, RHP)

Coffee Cakes got TJS in early April ’23, which could mean he returns halfway through the season. His slider is fantastic, but his sinker isn’t. There are times it earns strikes and gets the outs it dreams of, but its 40%+ ICR rates with few whiffs meant he allowed a hit per inning, if not more, inflating his WHIP even with a low walk rate. It’s the Huascar Rule – don’t trust a pitcher who has a great slider and nothing else – and even when he does return, it should come with plenty of skepticism. We need something new for him to be trusted week-to-week. There is a ceiling of six frames of production when the sinkers find gloves, but will it come with a Win…?


204. Kris Bubic (KCR, LHP)

He got TJS in late April 2023 and may be worked into the rotation by the end of the season. Bubic was looking like a more refined version of himself in the small sample we saw to kick off the year, featuring a new slider that did him wonders, elite extension on all his pitches, and actually locating both his four-seamer and changeup closer to their ideal spots (higher heaters, lower changeups). Injuries, man.


205. Antonio Senzatela (COL, RHP)

JEEZ, Senz-A, don’t sneak up on people like that. But you forgot about me! The way you haunt my dreams? NEVER! But I missed so long after my ACL tear, pitched one game, and then tore my UCL and underwent TJS in July! Oh. I thought you were still regularly pitching for the Rockies. BUT THEN HO–I hope you’re doing okay man. Just wear some tap shoes or something, please.


Tier 19 – Sure, But What’s The Point?

These are pitchers who have a tinge of potential that I’d take note if they grab a rotation spot during the year.


206. Deivi García (CHW, RHP)

Now that he’s on the White Sox, everything changes. But for real, I see the White Sox throwing everything around in that rotation this season, giving as many arms a chance to find some possible value for 2024 through flipping them at the deadline or simply holding onto them as a cornerstone of their rotation. Writing those last four words in a blurb about Deivi feels all kinds of wrong, and without any options left, the best hope for Deivi: The Starter (coming this fall) is a multi-inning role out of the pen that could stretch into starts if the situation gets dire (which it very well might). After all, he was sitting two ticks harder last year in his brief relief outings at 94/95 mph. With solid 16+ iVB. And a…1.7 Adj VAA?! WHAT?! That’s hyper-elite. Like stud elite. Duuuuuude. If that fastball can be commanded upstairs while finding a way to get strikes with his curve or slider, there’s actual upside here. Oh dang y’all. OH DANG. The path to Deivi getting that chance is just too small + the secondaries are suspect but man, I’ve developed that weird crush I get when there is this one skill that at least gives you enough room to make a reasonable attempt at finger-tweezing that quarter you dropped between the car seats. Those are the dumbest crushes.


207. Owen White (TEX, RHP)

He could be fighting for a spot in the Rangers rotation early in the year, though for fantasy purposes, you may want to ignore it. His ability dropped massively in 2023 in both Double-A and Triple-A, with his previously stellar 16% SwStr rates falling to just 11% and 8%, respectively, in 2023. His brief four frames in the majors came with little joy, and White’s cutter/fastball/slider mix came with decent command, but not enough electricity to warrant your attention. Sit this one out until there’s more to catch our eye.


208. Colin Rea (MIL, RHP)

Rea is the perfect example of a pitcher trying to squeeze everything he can out of mediocre stuff. His cutter is the hero as it finds the corners well with plenty of strikes and a 31% CSW. Its partner in crime is a sinker that is…okay. Rea has a solid skill of going front-hip against left-handers, but fails to jam right-handers with it. There are four other pitches in the mix as well, though the slider and four-seamer are the two that show up most, often in two-strike counts, and while they both can work, they aren’t reliable offerings. This is a sinker-in-play focus with cutters interspersed and that should explain the near 50% groundball rate. Don’t buy into the 1.19 WHIP as it relied on a low hit-per-nine that should regress upwards, while Rea’s 21% strikeout rate is likely to fight hard to stick around 20%, thanks to the effective slider.


209. Huascar Ynoa (ATL, RHP)

Ynoa went under the knife in 2022 and is vying for a rotation spot in 2024. He sported a filthy slider in a “breakout” 2021 campaign that was interrupted after breaking his hand punching the team bench, though he sparked the Huascar Rule – a pitcher with only a good slider can’t be trusted for a full season. Ynoa’s four-seamer has the velocity and solid iVB, but its VAA and poor extension without pristine high locations made it get walloped constantly. It’s possible we’ll see a new arm after he hits the reset button, though I wouldn’t hold my breath. At best, he’s a Cherry Bomb when the slider cooks and the fastball avoids punishment, but that’s too anxiety-riddled for me.


210. Gavin Stone (LAD, RHP)

I want to like Stone more and while his rookie year came with horrific marks, including routine 50%+ ICR, it was also a terribly small sample of 31 frames and masks his true ability. Which is far better? Well, better, but I’m not sure if it’s something for us to care about. Stone should get more opportunities than Grove as the season progresses and it’ll come down to his changeup’s dominance to carry him through games as the four-seamer doesn’t quite do enough to get me excited (even if it’s not a terrible shape – he aims it low and it gets destroyed). I kinda like his slider as a strike pitch, too, but batters seemingly jumped on everything Stone threw and we’re going to need to see some precision for him to get the most out of his arsenal. This is a clear “wait until he proves it” scenario. He may never get there.


211. Javier Assad (CHC, RHP)

We’ll likely see Assad step in for a few starts this year, though don’t expect him to go six frames with consistency, let alone once. He’s a sinker/cutter arm who can succeed if he’s nailing the edges with the cutter and jamming enough batters with sinkers. Don’t let the 3.05 ERA from 2023 fool you – he’s not the kind of pitcher you want to take a chance on.


212. Reynaldo López (ATL, RHP)

Atlanta is going to stretch out ReyLo and give him a chance to be in the rotation come March. His four-seamer woke up – 98+ mph velocity from the pen with a near 15% SwStr rate and great shape to excel at the top of the zone – and there’s even more potential given its ~50% hiLoc that could grow if he has Strider in his ear. Sadly, his secondaries aren’t nearly as dependable as you’d want. The slider returned just a 54% strike rate across nearly 30% usage, while the changeup is horrific and the curve is a work in progress. It’s possible ReyLo can turn into a Bryce Miller type, though I wonder how well the four-seamer plays without the extra velocity boost from pitching out of the pen + if he can earn enough strikes with his slider and friends.


213. Ken Waldichuk (OAK, LHP)


Funny story, I legit thought Waldichuk was out for all of 2024 after news came out that he had elbow pain after the season ended. Fortuantely, that was just scar tissue and Waldichuk should be able to pitch relatively soon, if not compete for an opening day job. Wild, I know.

Speaking of wild, that’s Waldichuk. He’s not a pitcher I love chasing due to his clear struggles to execute a gameplan with every pitch he throws. When it all works, things can be great (it’s why he has decent strikeout numbers), especially with the solid Adj. VAA he sports with elite extension from the left side. That makes his four-seamer pop at times, while he gets legit sweep on the slider and has his moments where he’s spotting changeups with ease.

If it all clicks, I believe in it. However, I don’t believe it will click. Awwww. He’s a slinging lefty, y’all, with a history of poor command and even if his arm is feeling better after the surgery, it doesn’t solve his delivery that speaks to the inconsistencies of slinging lefties of old. I’ll be watching for that command improvement and let you know if it arrives.


214. Zack Thompson (STL, LHP)

He’s super intriguing y’all. There’s another step needed before he could be something, but the arsenal does suggest there’s more to reach. He needs to focus on fastball command (not sure if that can be a huge whiff pitch without more velocity, and the shockingly low spin rates on it limit its iVB along with an average VAA) and the slider has legit whiff potential against all batters. The curve has to become more reliable as a #3 offering but the tools are there. The Cardinals will turn to him as their first option once a spot opens up, which is sure to come early with aged starters and an array of injury risk.


215. Jordan Wicks (CHC, LHP)

2023 Stats Table
Pitch Repertoire Table


Wicks isn’t a pitcher I’d look to roster out of the gate. When his changeup is cooking, it’s cooking (see his MLB debut) as he does a brilliant job locating it down-and-arm-side routinely and earning chases galore. Unfortunately, its 60% strike rate requires other offerings to keep batters off the base paths, and currently, Wicks doesn’t have much to turn to. His four-seamer has all the makings of a poor offering without the same precision and his slider + curve lack consistency or electricity to turn into a Carrasco-mold of changeups and breakers paired with highly questionable fastballs.

His sinker has been effective, living just above the changeup surprisingly well, though that’s a rare skill and I don’t expect Wicks to keep the pitch in the perfect quadrant for a full season. If he can figure out how to locate cutters inside to right-handers while nailing the slider down-and-away or sinkers up-and-in to silence left-handers, then you have yourself a better Wade Miley with a great defense behind him. I need to see that growth in his arsenal before trusting him with any regularity during the season.


216. Hayden Wesneski (CHC, RHP)

The days of us dreaming of Hayden being a consistent starter are behind us. His slider is a massive breaker with tons of sweep and depth, but he doesn’t wield it properly yet, with a low 60% strike rate and sub 15% SwStr clip – a mark that will rise over time as he commands it better. His sinker can jam batters inside and had a brilliant 30% ICR rate, though it’s not enough to mask an atrocious four-seamer. This pitch held a 51% ICR as it has 11 inches of iVB – ELEVEN – and should be located down, to miss under bats, not up or middle of the zone. What about the cutter? Ummm 56.5% ICR. Oh.


217. Luis Patiño (SDP, RHP)

It’s weird to imagine Patiño improving on the Padres after the Rays weren’t able to fix him, but hey, there’s always hope! When he first arrived in the majors, Patiño’s four-seamer was brilliant with exceptional marks in all the right places – over 17 inches of iVB, great VAA, and elite velocity! – and after enduring injuries to his oblique and finger, we haven’t seen him reclaim the pitch, as he thew more sinkers in 2023, while featuring just 16.4 inches of iVB and decent VAA last season. Still, I think he’ll return to feature the straight heater this year, while there has always been room to grow with his slider. The focus on two pitches has made him look more like a reliever, but if that four-seamer can bully batters, then the depth of his arsenal can be far shallower – just that slider and one other pitch, or just be Strider and not care? Yeah, you probably need one more pitch. Monitor Patiño’s four-seamer early on and if he gets the opportunity to start again with the over-powering heater of old, sign me up.


218. Matt Waldron (SDP, RHP)

#DontTrustAKnuckleballer. But he’s more than that! Fair, he absolutely is. Waldron showcased a sinker that can earn outs against RHBs + a solid sweeper with a cutter finding the zone well and possibly earning more strikes than we should expect next year. I worry a little about him facing LHBs, but if the cutter is able to land inside often, then we’re cooking. That knuckleball is a fun thing, but in reality, it’s unreliable and should be utilized more as a surprise pitch than 25% of his arsenal given its sub 60% strike rate. It’s possible there’s a decent Toby in here if the sweeper and cutter are able to be heavily relied upon. Please stop using that four-seamer away, though.


219. Brandon Williamson (CIN, LHP)

2023 Stats Table
Pitch Repertoire Table


The Reds are likely to have Williamson in Triple-A to start the year, but it’s safe to assume he’ll get significant innings inside the rotation across 2024. Williamson had a great run in the middle of the season when his heater pushed 93-95 mph instead of 91-93, with his stellar cutter earning strikes 70% of the time and changeup falling off the table to right-handers. It’s a Wade Miley approach with a touch more upside when he’s cooking, though the four-seamer’s steep VAA makes the pitch fail to earn whiffs upstairs, even with its good iVB. Don’t expect him to pile on the strikeouts unless the changeup can become a 60-65% strike pitch, but the cutter and heater should earn outs effectively enough for 15-teamers if the velocity is there.


220. Bowden Francis (TOR, RHP)

I kinda like Francis’ heater with 17 iVB, nearly 7 feet of extension, and above-average adj. VAA. It’s why it held a 38% O-Swing last year, and pairing it with a sweeper and curve makes for an interesting three-pitch mix that could actually work if he got some time as a starter. Suitman whispers in my earThey put him in relief for all twenty games he pitched last year? WELL FINE, I’ll just ignore the four inning Win on 6/28 against the Giants then. WHATEVER. If dire circumstances arise in Toronto and Francis is given the shot, his arsenal is better than your standard “desperate MLB team SP depth option”.


221. Adrian Morejon (SDP, LHP)

I dig Morejon and I hope he’s healthy and rearing to go in 2024. There was hope for more in 2022 before he got TJS and we saw nine frames last season as a suggestion for what’s ahead. From the left side, he used to be near 97 mph, and even sitting a bit above 95 mph last year, his four-seamer featured nearly 17 inches of iVB (almost an inch more than in 2022!), with solid extension and great VAA, suggesting he can go the high-heater route. In addition, he features a gyro slider that can take out LHBs and possibly develop into the back-foot pitch against RHBs to make him a legit threat for strikeouts. I hope to see more development on his changeup to help keep off RHBs (small velo difference and mediocre movement at the moment), while the curve looks to be his most consistent strike offering among the secondaries. The unfortunate part is how the Padres will use him – I imagine he’ll be sent to the minors to finally get some innings and showcase that he can endure being a starter before getting the shot, if the Padres even let him start. So it goes.


222. Alec Marsh (KCR, RHP)

Here’s the thing. Marsh had an eleven-strikeout game against the Rays on July 15th and he was added to many lists as a potential breakout guy. Thing is, his skills just aren’t that good. The slider is a great whiff pitch – 21% SwStr rate! – but guess what, the four-seamer earned the whiffs that day. And sadly, that four-seamer just isn’t good enough. His overall 44% ICR is 5th percentile and is led by the heater, which doesn’t earn a ton of strikes to justify the damage, and I’d feel uncomfortable trusting Marsh on any given day. Maybe he can add some velocity and not rely on it low in the zone (why?! You have GOOD VAA) while leaning more on the slide piece and earning a strike rate higher than ~60%. Don’t hold your breath.


223. Alex Faedo (DET, RHP)

He’s the long reliever for the Tigers at the moment and if he’s getting regular starts, it means plenty has gone south for their rotation. Given the chance, Faedo has such a good slider (26% ICR, 36% CSW) that he can rack up strikeouts and produce for five frames, but with a mediocre heater he hopes to steal called strikes with and a changeup that carries a near 50% strike rate, he’s destined to cause more harm than production.


Tier 20 – It’s An Honest Living

They seem to have a rotation spot and you can just ignore it unless you’re in an AL/NL-Only league and even then, it’s highly suspect.


224. Tyler Anderson

2023 Stats Table
Pitch Repertoire Table


2022 was a magical year for Mr. Anderson; after all, the new Matrix moving came out and had the world buzzing about Neo once again. That was 2021. FINE. Anderson was magnificent for the Dodgers, leaning into his changeup over 30% of the time and bumping all the good stuff – strike rates, SwStr, CSW, and a stupid good 26% ICR – in front of an elite defense & offense that brought him sparkling ratios and fifteen Wins.

Then he went to the Angels. Yeah. The changeup was still a good pitch, but he had to squeeze more out of it as his cutter and four-seamer each took steps back. The former dropped eight points in strike rate, while the four-seamer dropped to a 27% CSW with a 40%+ ICR and a significant dip in strike rate as well. In concert with a worse crew around him, he added two extra hits per nine, while his Wins were cut nearly 67% to just six across 25 starts. Ouch.

It’s hard to imagine a redemption to the 2022 peak without a better team around, which extends to the coaching crew to help Anderson make the right changes in-season – we can all agree the staff on the other side of town is far superior to the minds in the Angels’ clubhouse, unfortunately. There’s hope Anderson can find a groove at some point in the season and I’ll be keeping tabs to see if there’s a right time to roll the dice.


225. Chris Flexen (CHW, RHP)

2023 Stats Table
2023 Stats Table


Nick, Flexen is getting starts! You have to write about him! I know, it’s the Top 300 Starting Pitchers and they can’t all be Ragans, unlike this wonderful dream I had last night…ANYWAY, Flexen has a cut-four-seamer (PO1KC!) and a cutter that is the same but has a bit more drop on it. And he throws that four-seamer away to both LHBs and RHBs, which, as expected, meant it allowed all the ICR, even if he didn’t pitch a ton in Coors.

The changeup at least had good results against LHBs, but its 55% strike rate meant he had to hurl cutters at a 70% strike rate, which got pummeled at a 45% ICR and I just don’t see how we can lean in on Flexen outside of a desperate Sunday stream. Strikeouts won’t come along, this is all about starting Flexen and expressing For the Love of Koufax, give me five innings and a Win! That’s not the kind of arm you want on your teams, is it?


226. Paul Blackburn

2023 Stats Table
Pitch Repertoire Table


After an All-Star 2022 season (you read that correctly), Blackburn maintained the same 4.00+ ERA (3.96 FIP?!) while the WHIP soared as his walk rate rose three ticks to an unacceptable 9% and he allowed over ten hits per nine frames. The walks can be attributed to a drop in fastball usage, though I think the move was the correct one. Blackburn has a quartet of secondary offerings that rarely harmoniously entwined across the full year, though their attributes on paper suggest better times ahead. His cutter could be a fantastic pitch inside to left-handers, his slider and curve are both immense breakers to induce uncomfortable swings and steal strikes in the zone, while his changeup held a brilliant 20% SwStr rate against left-handers.

The question here is if he can find the right mix. His four-seamer and sinker fell to near 35% usage in 2023, and I’d argue that’s still too high as both pitches were poorly located and shellacked. If he can save them for specific surprise moments à la Joe Musgrove or Aaron Civalewhile, you know, not leaving them over the heart of the plate (wouldn’t that be nice?), there is a junkballer here who could keep a strikeout rate comfortably above 20% while suppressing the WHIP. It will take a revamp, though, and I’m not confident Blackburn will be doing so – it’s an aggressive ask for a pitcher to toss roughly 20% fastballs. Don’t anticipate it, though be aware if a shift reveals itself early next year.


227. Jakob Junis (MIL, RHP)

It looks like the Brewers are giving Junis a proper shot to start, an opportunity Junis has been dreaming of for ages. Thing is, all he has is the slider. There are those rare moments that the changeup is devastating n all, but let’s be real, it’s the slider. I feel like this breaks a rule. IT SURE DOES. I think there is room for Junis, especially given how the Brewers traded for him n all – Miley/Peralta have two secure spots, leaving three for Ashby, Hall, Ross, Junis, Rea, Gasser, and Bryse (why are you shuddering at that last name?) – and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Brewers took it a touch slow with Ashby and Gasser, allowing Rea, Junis, and Hall to steal the spots. Back to Junis, I don’t think he packs enough punch as he carries a really rough heater in the mix, but there’s always a chance we see something new, right?


228. Pedro Avila (SDP, RHP)

Avila’s changeup is a thing of beauty. That pitch returned 30%+ SwStr rates against RHBs (not LHBs!) the last two seasons and is the sole reason for his flirtation with a 25% strikeout rate. The problem is getting to two strikes in the first place as his four-seamer and sinker are not the offerings you want them to be. Throw in a curveball with which he struggles to earn strikes against RHBs, and you have yourself a frustrating soup. Why would I eat that? Because you didn’t sign a fifth starter, San Diego. Avila is likely to steal a rotation spot given his starts last year, and there’s some sneaky value given the elite defense behind him + PetCo’s ability to limit HRs in cold weather. If you’re in dire need of innings early in an NL-Only league, Avila isn’t the worst option, and if he gets the #4 spot, he’d face the Giants on the Sunday of opening weekend, allowing you to stream him and drop after if you like. I don’t like it for 12-teamers, but there’s a chance it works out if the changeup is cooking.


229. Luis L. Ortiz (PIT, RHP)

2023 Stats Table
Pitch Repertoire Table


Ortiz’s 98 mph heater and 25% SwStr slider from 2022 were not replicated in the larger sample this past year, with both pitches taking significant steps back in whiffability, velocity, and batted ball results. His fastball split into four-seamer and sinker with the former returning a horrid 59% ICR, while the sinker was the main reason he could get outs – look above for a perfect reference to its ability to demoralize right-handers. The slider’s step back to a pedestrian 14% SwStr rate silenced his biggest weapon, disabled by inconsistent mechanics that prevented proper command of his arsenal. Expect few strikeouts, inefficient innings, and rare moments of bliss in the rotation.


230. Bailey Falter (PIT, LHP)

2023 Stats Table
Pitch Repertoire Table


He’s a Toby at best. It’s a four-pitch mix with nothing reaching a 15% SwStr rate and you’ll find yourself bargaining on Sunday morning as you convince yourself Falter is the stream to chase for the day. The four-seamer hovers 90 mph as he works in curves and sliders as much as possible to induce outs in play. His changeup is still a work in progress, but will appear a decent amount as the game progresses, which could be the sixth inning often as the Pirates will rely on him to devour frames for a shallow rotation. He’ll be a staple of your waiver wire throughout the year.


231. Jake Irvin (WAS, RHP)

2023 Stats Table
Pitch Repertoire Table

This isn’t what you want. Irvin’s best skill is locating four-seamers inside to right-handers, but the shape is terrible, while his sinker’s arm-side movement isn’t utilized properly, relying on backdoor called strikes against right-handers instead of jamming them. Oh, and throwing it over 20% of the time to left-handers for a near 50% ICR. Oh no.

His breaking ball is a curveball that rarely misses bats and struggles to earn strikes against right-handers as the pitch floats far more than landing low. It just doesn’t add up to a pitcher you want to trust, even for one night.


232. Jordan Lyles (KCR, RHP)

2023 Stats Table
Pitch Repertoire Table


Lyles had a longball problem last year, outlining the massive gap between his ERA and WHIP, though there was one element that still shocks me: His four-seamer, despite some terrible locations, mediocre shape, and 70% strike rate, held a 98th percentile ICR rate at 33%. His four-seamer was apparently one of the best mitigators of damage in play. It dropped over ten points from 2022 and I can’t justify that mark sticking for another year.

But he still had a 6.28 ERA last year! Right, because he had six games for 6+ ER and allowed far too many longballs. Well, his slider was worse as its sweeping action wasn’t low but stayed up far more than it should have (as Kyle Bland calls it, a “Chimney Sweeper”. I’m super proud of him for that). while his formerly reliable curveball was horrific with a sub 50% strike rate. So why wasn’t the fastball crushed more? I DON’T KNOW. Well, okay, I see it more now. Batters got under the pitch far more often, resulting in a massive climb to its launch angle. In short, more fly balls, more home runs, but more pop-outs and cans of corn as well. I don’t trust Lyles to toe the line well, though in spacious Kansas City, that 2.00 HR/9 could fall down a touch more in another full season there.

There are positives that you shouldn’t ignore. Lyles isn’t destined to fail every night – 25% of his starts last year were solid as he has the leash to go long for the Royals. That’s a low chance. But it’s a chance and those desperate streams could work out better than others. Just don’t two-step him with only a 12.5% chance that both work in your favor.


233. Patrick Corbin (WAS, LHP)

2023 Stats Table
Pitch Repertoire Table

I hope for the days when Corbin gets back on track, but there just isn’t enough in the tank. His four-seamer gets crushed by batters on both sides of the plate, his slider doesn’t earn the whiffs that it used to, and his sinker, while being a surprisingly good pitch against left-handers, doesn’t swing a big enough stick.

That slider was the money maker back in the day, but it’s getting hung too often, while not being tempting enough against right-handers to induce a 40% O-Swing, forcing its strike rate to fall to under 60% last year. That turned to more fastballs, which turned into more damage.

I don’t see a redemption coming for Corbin unless something dramatically changes with his fastballs or slider, and there’s no indication either will come, especially after years of the same struggles.


234. Trevor Williams (WAS, RHP)

2023 Stats Table
Pitch Repertoire Table


#NeverTrevor. Nothing in his arsenal misses bats, and while his general command is above average, his stuff weighs down the entire approach. Against right-handers, he’s able to keep his slider down, but the pitch held just a 51% strike rate as batters refused to chase it out of the zone, sporting just a 10% SwStr rate. Against right-handers. That’s abysmal. The curve was more reliable as a strike pitch with a 22% usage and should see more action with the best ICR in his arsenal, though that could be explained by its early usage as batters are more passive.

Against left-handers, Williams does a great job of locating four-seamers up-and-in, while trying to beat them away with his changeup. Two problems here. First, his four-seamer’s best quality is its location with decent VAA and extension, but it comes in under 90 mph with terrible movement. That makes the pitch either work inside or get pummeled, which can be a problem when it’s the only pitch above a 60% strike rate against left-handers. That changeup? Sub 50% strikes, though it mitigates hard contact plenty. He’s near the spot each time, but he just doesn’t get enough chases on it to justify the horrible 21% zone rate.

Please don’t.


Tier 21 – More Youngin’s To Be Aware Of

It’s a mix of guys I like who I don’t expect to show up and others who could have an early opportunity and may be able to do something with it.


235. Ty Madden (DET, RHP)

I wish I had more data on Ty Madden, but we don’t have Hawkeye installed in all Double-A parks, sadly. We’ll know more this year when he’s in Triple-A and the report at the moment is that he enjoys high heaters while punishing batters with a gyro slider and similar curve. The changeup is in development (aren’t they all?) and the 10% walk rate is the most annoying part of it all. As with many prospects, the stuff is good enough that if he finds a rhythm in Triple-A, he could turn into an arm to target upon call-up. Let’s see what he does in April and May.


236. Chase Petty (CIN, RHP)

Petty has great fastball command, though it’s sitting 92-95 mph as opposed to 97+ in high school, where he could flirt with 100 mph. It’s paired with a slider that can be the wipeout pitch many dream of…or a floater. He’ll need to refine the #2 pitch as his third is a splitter that can’t be relied on outside of its time nullifying left-handers. There’s a ton of potential here should Petty take that step, which has a higher probability than others given the 20-year-old’s heat in high school.


237. AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL, RHP)

Ummm, he has 17 inches of iVB (well above average!) on his four-seamer with good enough extension and 94/95 mph velocity (pretty much average that could both improve over time). The VAA isn’t good, but we’ve seen worse and I wonder if there’s a world where he takes his sub-40% hiLoc (yuck) and turns the heater into a legit upstairs offering to surprise batters. The slider/curve needs some work to become more stable inside the zone, while the changeup had some success when executed, and I see an arm who can surprise us if he finds a north-south rhythm with his pitches. Keep an eye on his development as he only just turned 21 years old.


238. Jack Leiter (TEX, RHP)

We know the upside, it’s a matter of staying at the top of his game. His dominance at Vanderbilt hasn’t translated to the minors as well as many hoped and injuries have slowed him down plenty, though there are moments when he looks like the ace of old. His fastball seems to be overpowering upstairs with a legit breaking ball and if the K/BB/SwStr rates in Triple-A this year are exceptional, it’ll tell the story of a pitcher ready to make an impact for what will likely be a banged and bruised Rangers rotation. Forget all the trials and tribulations – if Leiter gets the call and he’s had success in Triple-A in 2024, you better take a chance.


239. Ben Brown (CHC, RHP)

He throws a 95/96 mph fastball without good VAA, but solid iVB and extension that could make it a good foundation for his arsenal. However, he may turn into a reliever as he was used exclusively out of the pen in Triple-A when he returned from injury in September, and his two-pitch focus of fastballs and a strong slider could make him head to the pen for good. I’d be cautious testing the waters on Brown when he arrives, given my concerns about whether the four-seamer can bully batters enough to justify a two-pitch mix.


240. Kai-Wei Teng (SFG, RHP)

Teng tallied nearly 130 frames in Double-A and Triple-A last year, making him one of the first options the Giants will turn to when looking at their farm for a replacement arm. He’s sported 27%+ strikeout rates since 2019, with legit whiff numbers as well, thanks to a low arm angle to earn whiffs on his sinker and four-seamer, a slider & pair, and even curves + changeups to give a wide variety of looks to hitters. He’s a kitchen sink arm with more whiffs than you’d expect and that adaptability makes him an intriguing pitcher, though the high walk rates may make for a bit more volatility than we’d like. He’s an interesting one, possibly without a true mastery of a single offering that will limit his effectiveness at the bigs.


241. Jairo Iriarte (SDP, RHP)

He throws mid-to-upper 90s with spotty command, with his changeup leading his secondaries, followed by a slider that is hit or miss. He has a delivery heavily resembling Pedro Martinez, and while that’s not a fair comparison, it’s hard not to be enamored watching him hurl a baseball. There’s legit electricity in this arm and if he’s able to iron out the walks and give fewer indications of a Cherry Bomb career, he may deserve your attention. Irairte is worth the spec add the moment he gets the call.


242. Joey Cantillo (CLE, LHP)

You should be hyper-aware of Cantillo. The Guardians have little SP depth and Cantillo racked up 111 strikeouts in 95 frames in Triple-A last year…though it did come with a 4.64 ERA and 1.52 WHIP as he held a horrid 13% walk rate. He’s a lefty-slinger who is sure to rack up strikeouts with a filthy changeup and a devastating slider to left-handers. The 94 mph fastball isn’t one to bully too many, but when he’s able to spot it, he can overwhelm. This is likely to be more of a Cherry Bomb starter with some legitimate highs and chaotic lows (the good ole Shag Rug will be very present here), but sure to make waves when he arrives, especially if the curve can join the slider in becoming consistent strike earners.


243. Daniel Espino (CLE, RHP)

He was one of the top MLB prospects until injuries got in the way, including missing all of 2023 with a shoulder injury. The Guardians are sure to be safe with him this season, especially at just 23 years old next year. It’s a big 101 mph fastball with a devastating slider when he’s cooking, with shockingly low walk rates along the way as he carried over 20% Swstr rates in 2021 and 2022. It’s just a matter of health and finding that rhythm again.


244. Tekoah Roby (STL, RHP)

His mid-90s four-seamer with excellent whiffability upstairs paired with a monstrous curve make for an ideal BSB that could make him relevant the second he gets the chance in St. Louis. I wonder how the rest of his repertoire will play out and whether he can recover from a poor showing in the AFL. When chasing prospects, we look for a foundational fastball with a reliable secondary and Roby seems to have both. Circle him when looking for stashes.


245. Griff McGarry (PHI, RHP)

McGarry was a 97 mph arm with a great slider and curve, but took a major step back in 2023 as his poor command became a larger issue. If we’re seeing him in 2024, it means McGarry has taken steps forward with his command, hopefully with his velocity returning to 95+ as well. Be careful jumping in on McGarry as that command has always haunted him, outlining a Cherry Bomb at best. Volatility is not a fun animal to tame in-season.


246. Mason Black (SFG, RHP)

With thirteen starts in Triple-A last year, Black could find the majors soon, and with a 28% strikeout rate with just an 11% SwStr rate, I wonder if he’s more called-strike-focused than ideal for a prospect. He has a low arm angle but is still able to get on top of the ball, suggesting a four-seamer with more iVB than what you expect from typical three-quarters arm slots, while the slider is a vicious offering. If he’s able to learn Webb’s changeup, Black could be something special in the bigs. That’s a MASSIVE leap, though, and for now, we can only hope Black develops the efficiency to last more than five frames in Triple-A to earn a debut before the summer.


247. Wikelman Gonzalez (BOS, RHP)

The smaller-bodied Gonzalez sports a low arm angle that makes his mid-90s heater explode at the top of the zone, catalyzing a 35% strikeout in Double-A with a 14% overall SwStr rate. You love to see that, though it came with a horrid 15% walk rate as he lacks a strong secondary pitch for strikes. There is a legit curve and a developing changeup, and the question is how he’ll develop across more time in the minors after 110+ frames in Double-A in 2023. He’ll likely have some more growing pains in Triple-A before finding a balance of whiffs and strikes that works, making him an unlikely option for a confident pickup this year.


248. Carson Whisenhunt (SFG, LHP)

The southpaw boasted impressive strikeout and whiff marks as he rose quickly up to Double-A – a product of a legit plus changeup that gets featured nearly 40% of the time in his arsenal. The other 60% is the major question, with his high release point reducing the effectiveness of his four-seamer and forcing his curve to do more work than it currently can. If Whisenhunt can add some velocity or a slider/cutter to the mix to help him earn strikes instead of the hittable heater, then there’s legit fantasy potential with that changeup leading the way. His arm action does suggest a gyro slider working well to keep LHBs at bay, which would unlock Whisenhunt as a legit prospect arm as long as the four-seamer isn’t horribly commanded.


249. Landen Roupp (SFG, RHP)

It’s hard not to fall for Roupp’s curveball, and in fact, he did himself as well, sporting it well over 33% of the time in his minor league career, even at times over 50%. It’s a gorgeous yacker, and with a sinker, slider, and changeup to round out the arsenal, there’s a fair amount of hype for Landen as a starter. It’s still unclear how successful the other three offerings will be – the low-to-mid 90s sinker doesn’t wow me – but his clean mechanics and great control in the minors suggest he’s equipped to develop the rest of his arsenal to become a legit starter when he arrives. Pay attention to Landen, even if it may take until mid-season or even 2025 until we see him in the big leagues after just ten games in Double-A last year.


250. Ian Seymour (TBR, LHP)

Command pitcher from the left side with unconventional mechanics who has sported impressive strikeout numbers (near 30%) and SwStr rates (around 14/15%) in Double-A. He locates heaters around the zone with a trio of secondaries and could jump up the ranks quickly with the lackluster Triple-A arms in the Rays’ system. Timing may not work out well with the second half of 2024 hopefully seeing the return of at least one injured arm, but be on the lookout for Seymour over the summer as a sneaky depth arm if he gets the call.


Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former college pitcher, travel coach, pitching coach, and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Account / Login