Drafting starting pitchers is more than understanding the players we saw in 2023. With pitching development improving each year, we’re watching young arms make larger impacts each season, forcing fantasy players to become more aware of potential prospects more than ever.
In previous years, I was vocal about how I wouldn’t focus on prospect pitchers until they make it to the major league level and made their debut for multiple reasons. 1) Our minor league data was too shallow, 2) Facing major league hitters exposes weakness and highlights strengths, and 3) I couldn’t get good footage from behind the pitcher to properly scout their abilities prior.
All of that has changed…mostly. #2 still stands as it’s difficult to discern if their past performance will hold against higher quality hitters, though, with Statcast applying to all Triple-A parks in 2023, a better grasp of pitch shape to better quantify four-seamer performance at the MLB level, and far more media present across Twitter, I elected to spend this off-season focusing on pitching prospects for each organization. Wild, I know.
The 100 names below only pertain to potential 2024 impact and are just for redraft fantasy baseball drafts. It’s incredibly difficult to discern the ETA to the majors for pitchers from Double-A and lower, though I’ve taken the liberty to ignore many highly touted arms simply because none expect them to get a debut in 2024.
What Matters Most For Prospect Pitchers
This is a brief and broad outline of what I look for most out of prospect pitchers for 2024 redraft fantasy baseball leagues and how that has affected my rankings below.
1) Overpowering four-seamer. 1.0+ Height Adjusted VAA, 6.6+ extension, 16+ iVB, 95mph+ velocity.
2) Mechanics that speak to command. Lack of violent motion, consistency inside at-bats to sequence and locate instead of “chucking around the zone and hoping”. The most subjective of the bunch, but poor command prospects will fail. Cough Taj Bradley cough.
3) A legit slider. Not curve or changeup, a slider. It’s the best secondary pitch in baseball and the most consistent for whiffs.
4) A #3 pitch he can earn consistent strikes with. A curve, a cutter, a slider, whatever. Something that is not his putaway pitch that can ensure the walks aren’t sky-high.
5) Weapons for both LHB and RHB. This usually means a changeup + a slider or curve, though it can be a cutter for off-handed batters instead of a changeup.
If a pitcher doesn’t have 95+ mph heat, they have to either have elite four-seamer pitch shape with a devastating pair of secondaries or the combination of stud sinker command with a legit pitch for off-handed batters and a wipeout breaker.
Don’t fall into the trap of chasing a prospect pitcher in a redraft league if they do not have these qualities – especially if their best pitch is a changeup and they have nothing else (I’m looking at you Gavin Stone). There will be a ton of hype around callups, that doesn’t mean you have to chase it. I’ve listed 100 names below – only about 10 prospect SP last year were worthwhile as pickups last year. Keep that in mind.
NOTE: This year, we will be launching our very own Minor League PLV App exclusive for PL Pro members that will allow us to track minor league hitters and pitchers better than ever. Pitch Shape, decision values, PLV marks across the repertoire, everything we have with our MLB tools applied to minor leaguers. We’ll have more to announce near opening day. Sign up for PL Pro to get access on Day 1.
Tier 1
They are technically prospects, so here they are. Go get Imanaga everywhere and thank me later.
1. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD, RHP)
It’s hard for me to write about Yamamoto since I don’t have the same data to refer to, nor have I had the chance to watch him nearly as much as everyone else inside these ranks. From what I gather, Yamamoto sports a great 95+ mph four-seamer, a legit slider, curve, and splitter, excellent command, and at the ripe age of 24 years old, he’s in his prime to excel over the course of the season. Throw in a fantastic situation with the Dodgers and you have yourself a relatively safe arm who can carry a 25%+ strikeout rate with strong ratios and a bucketload of Wins. The biggest problem is his volume: The Dodgers are sure to implement a six-man rotation as much as possible to give Yamamoto rest and likely limit him to roughly 150 frames (remember, they signed him to a ten-year deal and Japanese players are used to longer rest). The capped volume is my biggest concern about Yamamoto as he’ll have to be 33% better than another pitcher tossing nearly 200 frames to match the value. Considering that we’ll likely see some growing pains in the transition as well, I’m likely a little tepid on Yamamoto relative to the market, but it’s clear he’ll help your fantasy teams plenty in the year ahead.
2. Shōta Imanaga (CHC, LHP)
The Cubs are signing Imanaga and I personally believe they got a steal. Imanaga’s four-seamer grades incredibly well with elite iVB and VAA, while his approach in the NPB suggests there is room to grow with a better approach up in the zone. Making that adjustment could be the simple answer to quell fears of longball troubles in Wrigley, while he also sports fantastic command of a wide arsenal that includes a splitter, curve, sweeper, and cutter, limiting walks and boasting the best Stuff+ of all starters in the WBC (yes, better than Yamamoto and Shohei). For a detailed look at Imanaga, I highly recommend this video from Lance Brozdowski.
I’ll likely have Imanaga on many of my teams as a Holly arm, expecting solid ratios, the ability to go six frames, and flirtation with a 25% strikeout rate. If he takes the direction to lean into the high heater, Imanaga could be the very best FA signing of the off-season and a sneaky stud for your fantasy teams as a reliable arm throughout the entire season.
Tier 2
These prospects have a decent shot of being a part of the rotation before the end of April, if not grabbing a spot out of camp (Kyle Harrison has the job, y’all). It doesn’t mean they are my favorite prospects, but at least they are the guys in your drafts to consider first as spec-adds, who you can drop once they’ve confirmed to be sent to the minors to begin the year.
3. Ricky Tiedemann (TOR, LHP)
I remember seeing Tiedemann last spring training and believing in his 99 mph heater paired with a vicious slider that can go back-foot to RHBs. I’ve since cooled down a bit on him given the questionable shape of his 95 mph heater (it was a max velo of 99 mph, sadly) that features extremely low iVB marks, and I worry that he doesn’t have the pristine command required to maneuver it around the zone to set up his deadly breaker and his changeup that returned fantastic Stuff+ marks in Triple-A. The Jays have been slow with Tiedemann throughout the minors (justifiably so after he was impacted by a shoulder injury last season), which splashes cold water on the idea of Tiedemann appearing in the rotation early in the season. That said, the moment he appears later this year – who else do they have to replace a starter in the rotation? – he’ll be an instant pick-up. I sure hope that when the time comes, he throws enough strikes and is able to keep the velocity up without shoulder soreness impacting him. Is he someone to stash in 12-teamer drafts? I’m leaning away from the idea given how long you’ll likely be waiting and sacrificing a valuable roster spot in April. That’s up to you, though.
4. Paul Skenes (PIT, RHP)
Skenes is an auto-pickup the moment he hits the majors and you already knew that. His four-seamer sits in the upper 90s and is complemented with a true sinker and a big sweeper that excels with his lower arm angle. I have some worry about his mechanical consistency that could return command questions upon entering the big leagues, but his build and obvious skill set make this a “pick up and find out” the moment he arrives. Drafted in 2023 and with two games in Double-A already, I imagine the Pirates could call him up as early as May – there’s little reason to rush his arbitration clock with a spot out of camp. You can stash if you like, just be aware the Pirates have many reasons to be patient here.
5. Kyle Harrison (SFG, LHP)
I’m terrified. Harrison’s four-seamer has some great attributes, including an elite VAA with great extension that makes his 94 mph heater perform exceptionally well when elevated properly – 55% hiLoc against RHBs led to a 14% SwStr against them and there’s still room to grow. The pitch fares far differently against LHBs, though, with an astonishing 4% SwStr as he featured the pitch arm-side a bit too much while not nailing his spots around the zone nearly as well.
That can get better, right? Maybe, though his mechanics suggest a slinging southpaw and y’all know how I don’t like those. Harrison comes across as more of a “thrower” who is battling his mechanics rather than the batter in the majority of at-bats. This makes it tough for me to expect massive growth in his second season. Sure, he’ll have those games like the Reds start (and he didn’t even locate that well there), but he has Cherry Bomb written all over himself given the volatility of each individual at-bat.
There are other offerings here, and there’s a chance there’s development in his curve or change or even a brand new offering that allows him to stay ahead of batters. Sadly, that hook isn’t impressive enough to be a proper complement to the heater and that changeup is as rough as it gets. A pick in Harrison is believing the four-seamer will take another step forward this year, including its polish around the zone, and I’m not ready to do that.
6. Prelander Berroa (CHW, RHP)
Here I was, demoralized and resigned to my fate to watch Berroa turn into a relief arm for the Mariners in 2024. There’s no room. They said. Why would they let him start? They said. And then the light shone through. Suddenly hope appeared as Dipoto gave me a blessing I never anticipated. Berroa not only was traded, but he was dealt to a team in dire need of something electric in their rotation as they piece together a season, twiddling their thumbs until their front office actually does something good for the team. The Chicago White Sox.
Let me tell you all the good things first. When I watch Berroa, I see Cristian Javier with more velocity and a better slider. His heater comes in at around 96 mph (maybe 94/95 in the rotation?) with great iVB and a flat VAA with good extension (the FAN-tastic Four qualities that outline a potential four-seamer to elevate to fan batters) that forces me to emit noise when it blazes by bats, and then he mixes in a devastating slider in the upper 80s. Wait, did I say mixes in? My apologies, I mean wants to throw it more than 50% of the time. Hey, when it’s a filthy slider and you can land it in the zone decently well, you throw it a lot.
But, um, the dude walks guys a ton. We’re talking 14%+ traditionally in the minors and when we talk about prospect pitchers, a major red-flag is a high walk rate. But we’re also talking about 35%+ strikeout rates, too. It makes Berroa out to be a maddening Cherry Bomb type, AND YET I’M EXCITED. Look, I get it. You don’t want to chase Berroa because A) There’s no guarantee the White Sox even stick him in the rotation B) Berroa pitched few than 100 frames last year and C) That command is clearly suspect. That’s absolutely rational and fair and you’re likely right.
HOWEVER, I watch Berroa and see less mechanical disaster than expected with those walk rates and hot dang, he feels far closer than other mega-walk fellas I’ve seen to find a balance to get that heater upstairs while that slider is the stabalizer in and out of the zone. It’s possible and sitting here, outside the Top 100 SP, you have nothing to lose. Take the chance, make it happen. POP THAT CORK, FINGERS SNAPPING.
7. Mick Abel (PHI, RHP)
He’s good, but not the kind of prospect that interrupts your evening to pick him up when he gets the call. His heavy reliance on a slider/cutter (it’s a filthy pitch) mixed with a 93/94 mph fastball can work (97/98 in the spring, but that was adrenaline), which suggests he can be more of a Toby to Holly arm as he mixes in changeups and cutters as well. That might work well for fantasy purposes when he arrives – I consider Abel the true 6th option for that – and I wouldn’t be surprised if it came with a fantastic start or two that inflates his value a little too much in the small sample. Keep your expectations tempered and hope he can handle the bigs decently enough when he gets his shot.
8. Max Meyer (MIA, RHP)
When I watched Meyer’s MLB debut in 2022, I wasn’t too impressed. His four-seamer came with cut action (yikes) and his approach of 50% sliders was good but not great. It’s not the kind of pitch that bowls you over, instead being used as a strike pitch, destined to be a decent whiff pitch that is more of a table-setter than a dominator. I am curious whether we see a new version of him now that he’s healthy again, and I have to imagine the Marlins will give him an early shot in the rotation once a spot opens up. Not a terrible spec add when that happens, but not someone I’m jumping over the mountain for when the time arrives, let alone stashing him in my drafts.
Update: With Braxton Garrett delayed, it opens the door for Meyer to earn a roster spot out of camp, who has reportedly been adding to his slider-heavy arsenal. Keep an eye on him closely in the spring.
9. Robert Gasser (MIL, LHP)
He’s a lefty with a low arm angle but without the slinging tendencies of someone like Heaney, Manaea, or Harrison. The highlight is a fantastic slider that debilitates left-handers, though he struggles with right-handers, who hit all 12 of his allowed longballs in 2023. The solution may be the four-seamer, which sits at just 92 mph but can explode at the top of the zone with Gasser’s low arm angle. It doesn’t get the ideal iVB, but the elite VAA may make it a pitch to bully batters. He’s working with a cutter as well that could develop into the nullifier to right-handers, though a changeup is likely the missing tool to complete Gasser’s approach. Hopefully, the walks stay low, comfortably under 10%, and with a touch of development with the heaters and secondaries, Gasser could earn a rotation spot early for the Brewers. There’s some intrigue, even with the Shag Rug ever-present.
10. Drew Thorpe (SDP, RHP)
Thorpe is the fourth pitcher here who came over from the Yankees in the Soto deal (How will we replenish our rotation? Aha! Get all of them for Soto!) and after pitching Double-A this year, you may see him aggressively promoted by the Padres if he’s comfortable in Triple-A early in the season. As a command-focused, changeup-first pitcher, I generally avoid prospects like these in their rookie year – the heavy majority of impact arms in your 12-teamers carry either a dominant four-seamer that bullies batters or high-velocity breakers – though the reports on Thorpe are glowing, including Eric Logenhagen’s review, labeling the elite changeup as similar to those of Hellickson or Estrada. Even at the lower velocity, Thorpe may be a sneaky Toby play with the defense behind him, and if he develops another secondary to confidently get strikes (or dare I say whiffs against RHBs!), I can see how he earns your pick-up relying on low-90s sinkers instead of powerful four-seamers.
11. Connor Phillips (CIN, RHP)
Here’s the thing. Phillips’ four-seamer ranked just below Hunter Greene’s four-seamer in Stuff+ and ranked better with his slider. Why aren’t you using PLV instead? Because his locations were terrible. The four-seamer has brilliant pitch qualities – 96/97 mph velocity, elite VAA, elite iVB, solid extension – but the fella struggled to get the dang thing upstairs. If Connor can consistently elevate, it will demolish batters, while his slider’s shape is fantastic and – guess what – also wasn’t well commanded. The curve can help and fall into the zone at times and is a strong offering when it works, but you get the drill.
I included Phillips into the “Expected Starters” (along with Williamson) despite having five (Update, now SIX. Ugh.) arms already locked in because he’s a step up from the Fringe arms and will absolutely get playing time this year. When Phillips gets the chance, I hope we can throw away the small 20 IP sample we saw in favor of an improved approach and command (yes, approach. It didn’t seem like he embraced his four-seamers’ potential for elevation), turning him into a legit arm for fantasy managers everywhere overnight.
12. Joe Boyle (OAK, RHP)
Here’s the thing. You’ve seen the 98+ mph four-seamer and know that pitch is legit. It has the iVB, solid extension, and surprisingly decent VAA to go with it and yet…just an 11% SwStr rate in his small three start sample. Why? Because the fella can’t command consistently. His minor league walk numbers are laughable (we’re talking 19%+ y’all. That’s BANANAS) and watching him pitch his three games displayed incessant struggles to execute. If he can somehow find a way to make this fastball carry a 60%+ hiLoc, it’ll be a stupid overpowering pitch, especially paired with an 89 mph slider that falls off the table to make a phenomenal BSB that Tyler Glasnow dreams of.
There’s even a curveball in the mix in attempt for early called strikes as well, creating a package that is all ready to go if only the command could be relied upon. Put the Athletics as a team aside, if Boyle can execute reasonably well, this is a starter you want on your team. Do I believe he will? Sadly, no. He’s likely a HIPSTER at best for 12-teamers and a desperate dart throw for 15-teamers, where his low win chances are sure to keep him off many draft boards regardless of the potential.
Tier 3
I absolutely LOVE these pitchers and consider most of them auto-pickups when they get the call. I have concerns that it may take a bit longer to see them hit the majors than those in Tier 2, but consider this tier the ones you should know about across 2024.
13. Jackson Jobe (DET, RHP)
He’s stupid filthy and there’s a decent chance Jobe is the star prospect arm of 2024 when he gets the call. At the moment, he seems to be the #7 arm of consideration (assuming Gipson-Long’s groin injury slows him down for a while) outside of Faedo or a bullpen game, of course) and I’d heavily consider a stash come the end of April, especially if the Tigers flirt with the idea of a six-man rotation to limit the innings of their young & recovering arms. Low walk rate, massive strikeout potential with a stupid good slider and a 95/96 mph heater upstairs, a cutter for strikes, and a debilitating changeup. IT’S ALL HERE. He’s literally my favorite pitcher prospect and he’s only down here because those in Tier 2 have a real chance of arriving before the end of April, or even out of camp.
14. Jared Jones (PIT, RHP)
He’s an exciting one. He sits 95/96 on his four-seamer and when he can consistently get it upstairs, it misses a ton of bats. He pairs it with a whiff-heavy slider that doesn’t nail the down-and-gloveside approach for sliders often enough, but he executes it just enough to make it a proper 1-2 punch. The curve is a show-me offering he hopes to get in the zone and the changeup is far from ready, but once he hits the majors, Jones could spin some dominant games with fastballs and sliders. I worry a bit about the consistency that outlines a Cherry Bomb upon promotion, but he’s sure to win the adoration of managers early with at least one early start earning a strikeout per inning. Grab him the second he’s called up. There’s a part of me that likes him more than Skenes.
15. Cade Horton (CHC, RHP)
Here’s the Cubs prospect you should care about. As Geoff outlines below, Horton’s 94/95 mph four-seamer has great spin efficiency (12:15 is the time on which his fast-seamer spins, 12:00 = perfectly spinning in the direction of four-seamer = best for iVB), with a filthy slider he relies on plenty. There’s still room to grow with his curve and changeup, though these two pitches set a fantastic foundation that Cade is sure to build upon.
Update: With the Cubs declining to give Horton a Non-Roster Invite to spring training, we should not anticipate Horton arriving to big leagues until well past opening day. That said, the move is likely to limit his innings in 2024, which could suggest a call-up in May or June where he would be an instant pick-up. I’ve moved Horton to Tier 3 and down the ranks to #15 as a result.
16. Royber Salinas (ATL, RHP)
Salinas should be on your radar. He throws upper 90s with a trio of secondaries that could each take over a game (especially that slider!). I wonder how far back on the depth chart he is with so many arms available for the Athletics, but if he’s making a major splash in Triple-A early in the season, Salinas could demand a rotation spot before the start of summer.
17. Jacob Misiorowski (MIL, RHP)
His stuff is ridiculous. He sits upper 90s and hit 101 in the MLB Futures Game (see below) with a hammer of a slider in the mid-to-upper 80s + a low-90s cutter. He’ll miss all the bats with his extension and velocity, though control will be the issue (not command, he just needs to throw strikes). He’s the kind of pitcher you pick up instantly when he gets the call and give it a whirl. If he’s found some way to limit free passes, Misiorowski will dominate. There is a risk that he turns into a bullpen arm, but we also thought that with Strider…This feels like the future of the Brewers.
18. Hurston Waldrep (ATL, RHP)
There’s a lot of hype around Waldrep, who has a big over-the-top fastball and pairs it with a legit splitter that tunnels so well as it falls under the zone. I’m generally against pitchers with splitters as their #2 offering (it’s the most volatile pitch), though Waldrep’s high release makes for a more consistent splitter that comes out of the hand properly (getting on top of the ball with a straighter wrist). That said, he walked three batters in three of his final four games of 2023, and command may be a battle throughout his career. Once he gets the call to the majors, Waldrep should be rostered, even if those walks and inefficiency could make for many growing pains.
19. Chase Hampton (NYY, RHP)
Drafted in 2022 and shut down to preserve his arm, Hampton tossed 20 starts and nearly 110 frames across A+ and AA ball where he maintained strong whiff rates and sub 10% walk rates with a solid 93/94 mph heater that looked to have success upstairs, leaning mostly on a pair of breakers that gave batters fits. There’s a 90 mph cutter in there as well and I’m curious how he’ll perform when he likely makes the jump to Triple-A this year. The Yankees could be turning to Hampton early with their injury-prone arms and keep a close eye on Hampton. There’s legitimate strikeout potential in his secondaries and if the four-seamer isn’t detrimental once we see his Statcast data, then you may have a sneaky prospect grab in-season.
20. Chayce McDermott (BAL, RHP)
I kinda dig Chayce a lot. His four-seamer comes in around 94 mph, but its VAA, high locations, and 17 inches of iVB showcase why it sings upstairs when he can keep it there. He pairs it with a curve and slider he trusts, with a changeup that shows up here and there. It’s a mix that is rooted in a high heater and I can absolutely get behind that. His high walk rates are concerning, though it seemed as though he settled down a bit as the season continued. Expect Chayce to make a play for a rotation spot early in the season, especially if he has a great camp.
21. Will Warren (NYY, RHP)
Warren’s slider is a vicious offering with a ton of sweep, and when merged with a heavy sinker at 95/96 mph, Warren is a menace to RHBs trying to identify which direction each pitch is going. Fortunately, there’s a cutter in the mix as well to help take down LHBs, though he may need to lean more on his four-seamer to prevent hits off the sinker and breaker. He looks ready to go as the first call for the Yankees given his roughly 100 frames in Triple-A last season, and an arrival before May 1st isn’t out of the question as you could consider him the current #6 SP for the squad. He’s worth a spec add when it does happen, though the walk rate did rise above 10% last season and may be a hindrance in 2024, preventing six frames or even five in his first few outings.
22. Cade Povich (BAL, LHP)
Cade is the other big name with the Orioles, though from my limited look into the two, I prefer McDermott over Povich, even if Cade comes from the left side. Both have nearly 17 iVB on the heater, but Chayce is a bit more consistent in keeping his heater upstairs (with better VAA, more velocity, and a little more extension), while I also trust the slider and curve a bit more. That said, Cade’s curve grades highly in Stuff+ while the cutter/slider has been a formidable weapon for him as well. It comes down to his ability to establish the heater effectively to set up his weapons and he could make an impact when he arrives. If only his heater was better than 92 mph…
23. Tink Hence (STL, RHP)
He was able to hit upper 90s, but he’s young at just 21 years old and he pitched in Double-A in 2023, which means it’s unclear how much growth we’ll see between now and the depths of summer heat. If his heater can dominate through a full workload of six frames (he had many games around four or five innings last year), there’s a lovely foundation for him to take steps forward with a big high-70s hook and a changeup/slider combo hoping to earn consistent strikes.
24. River Ryan (LAD, RHP)
I absolutely dig River. Big 96/97 mph heater, above-average extension, and great VAA make his heater play incredibly well, even if it doesn’t have the best iVB. His curve is a legit breaker, the 90/91 cutter is a solid strike pitch, and reports are that his athleticism speaks to the development of his changeup as well. He doesn’t have the deterrent we normally see from electric prospect arms of an extended history of terrible walk rates, and this could be the season he truly comes into his own after just two games at Triple-A in 2023. The number of options for the Dodgers make it hard to see when Ryan will get his chance, but you should pay attention when he does.
25. Kyle Hurt (LAD, RHP)
He’s incredibly exciting after lowering his walk rates dramatically in 2023, though the ~10/11% clip is still a touch elevated. Hurt has a legit changeup with 95+ mph velocity that retired all six Padres batters in his sole game in the bigs, saving a newly developed gyro slider that could become a weapon in 2024. I’m curious if the four-seamer has major whiffability in the majors given its elite VAA that comes with both average extension and iVB, though both could improve with more time and development while the arm angle stays the same. The biggest question is that slider – if it’s a legit breaker, it completes Hurt’s arsenal as a second weapon to pair with the plus changeup that keeps RHB at bay and serves as a two-strike offering under LHB bats. Circle him if the Dodgers find themselves searching for another starter in the rotation – Hurt has a high chance above the others below.
26. David Festa (MIN, RHP)
You’re going to hear more about Festa early in the season and I’m undecided if I’m stoked for him or if he’s a small step back from legit hype. With the lack of starting depth inside the Twins roster, Festa has a quick path to the majors, arguably acting as their #7 SP at the time of writing (I wouldn’t be shocked if the Twins signed a depth arm like Lorenzen, Davies, or Ryu for the first few months). Festa’s 94 mph heater comes with great iVB and solid extension, but the pitch’s middling VAA makes me wonder if it’s enough to carry him through starts. His best pitch is a changeup that is sure to work in the bigs, but is his heater and slider good enough to let the pitch soar? I’m not sure they provide enough of a spark. He’ll be worth the spec add when the time arrives and we’ll take it from there.
27. Christian Scott (NYM, RHP)
Sooooo Scott tossed 62 frames in 12 starts in Double-A and carried a 29% K-BB rate with a 17% SwStr rate. He seemingly has great extension with a low arm angle that makes the ball look like a laser to the top of the zone for likely a fair number of whiffs at the big league level. In concert with a strong slider and changeup, the arsenal is there, and we’re just waiting for him to get enough volume to ensure he can locate effectively and keep his velocity up as he continues to get stretched out. I initially thought Scott was a 2025 arm given his oblique injury in early 2023, but with an invite to Spring Training ahead, the Mets could be more aggressive than I initially anticipated. Here’s one to circle for later in the year as a spec add when the call is made.
28. DJ Herz (WAS, LHP)
I’d wager we see Herz soon in 2024. He’s racked up whiffs with a 15%+ mark in both the Cubs and Nationals systems in 2023 as a slinging southpaw with a fastball, changeup, breaker mix that should remind you of Heaney, Manaea, Abbott, and many other low arm-angled lefties of the past. It does mean he carries the same concerns about control (14% walk rate) and I would be careful to trust him in his rookie season as the Shag Rug is sure to be present, making for, at best, a Cherry Bomb scenario.
This is the best video I could find on DJ Herz
29. Sawyer Gipson-Long (DET, RHP)
I really like Gipson-Long… when he gets the chance to start. I saw him as the clear #7 at the moment with Olson’s extended look in 2023, even if SGL was able to accumulate 119 frames across the minors and majors last season, though the groin injury has me wondering if he’s actually the #8 option now with Jobe ahead of him. He’s got a sinker he can land in the zone for strikes, a decent four-seamer that can be elevated, a fantastic jack-of-all-trades slider, and a changeup that can demolish batters when it’s working. Think a Logan Webb type without the same level of polish and less reliance on the changeup. He’s a possible stash out of the gate and a clear pick-up once he gets a gig.
Update: Sawyer is dealing with a groin strain in spring camp and I moved him down to Tier 3, which doesn’t represent his spot inside the Top 400 rankings.
30. Nick Nastrini (CHW, RHP)
There’s hype around Nastrini after being acquired in the Lynn/Kelly deal with the Dodgers in 2023 as he’s the clear favorite to jump from the minors to the rotation before the summer arrives. His four-seamer sits low-to-mid 90s with great iVB and decent VAA, while the slider and change tunnel well off the heater to get extra deception and this propelled the 30% strikeout rate in Triple-A last year. I wonder a little whether that deception will still play in the majors, while his walk rates have never been favorable (always above 10% with a ~11/12% rate across roughly 115 frames in the minors last year. I’ll have my eye on him, though the lower velocity and perceived reliance on deception make me a bit skeptical that he can come up and be productive out of the gate.
31. Emerson Hancock (SEA, RHP)
He was shut down in August with a Grade-1 shoulder injury (low number = good) and had no structural damage. In other words, Hancock should be the clear #6 #7 option for the Mariners in camp and would slide into the rotation should they need backup. Hancock’s fastballs have plenty of armside break, which will hopefully turn into effective grounders instead of barrels, while the slider is the clear favorite inside the zone to help earn strikes. There’s potential in his changeup if he can wield it consistently, though expecting a 25%+ strikeout rate from Hancock is unfair. He’s more of a Toby than a Holly given the heavy armside fastballs and lack of overwhelming whiff pitch.
Tier 4
All of these arms have intrigue attached to them, but come with more apparent flaws or further down the stack that it should take longer than those above. Still, be aware of these arms when they arrive – if they make it to the majors, it means there’s some innate trust that they’ve improved some of their flaws.
32. Ty Madden (DET, RHP)
I wish I had more data on Ty Madden, but we don’t have Hawkeye installed in all Double-A parks, sadly. We’ll know more this year when he’s in Triple-A and the report at the moment is that he enjoys high heaters while punishing batters with a gyro slider and similar curve. The changeup is in development (aren’t they all?) and the 10% walk rate is the most annoying part of it all. As with many prospects, the stuff is good enough that if he finds a rhythm in Triple-A, he could turn into an arm to target upon call-up. Let’s see what he does in April and May.
33. Chase Petty (CIN, RHP)
Petty has great fastball command, though it’s sitting 92-95 mph as opposed to 97+ in high school, where he could flirt with 100 mph. It’s paired with a slider that can be the wipeout pitch many dream of…or a floater. He’ll need to refine the #2 pitch as his third is a splitter that can’t be relied on outside of its time nullifying left-handers. There’s a ton of potential here should Petty take that step, which has a higher probability than others given the 20-year-old’s heat in high school.
34. AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL, RHP)
Ummm, he has 17 inches of iVB (well above average!) on his four-seamer with good enough extension and 94/95 mph velocity (pretty much average that could both improve over time). The VAA isn’t good, but we’ve seen worse and I wonder if there’s a world where he takes his sub-40% hiLoc (yuck) and turns the heater into a legit upstairs offering to surprise batters. The slider/curve needs some work to become more stable inside the zone, while the changeup had some success when executed, and I see an arm who can surprise us if he finds a north-south rhythm with his pitches. Keep an eye on his development as he only just turned 21 years old.
35. Jack Leiter (TEX, RHP)
We know the upside, it’s a matter of staying at the top of his game. His dominance at Vanderbilt hasn’t translated to the minors as well as many hoped and injuries have slowed him down plenty, though there are moments when he looks like the ace of old. His fastball seems to be overpowering upstairs with a legit breaking ball and if the K/BB/SwStr rates in Triple-A this year are exceptional, it’ll tell the story of a pitcher ready to make an impact for what will likely be a banged and bruised Rangers rotation. Forget all the trials and tribulations – if Leiter gets the call and he’s had success in Triple-A in 2024, you better take a chance.
36. Ben Brown (CHC, RHP)
He throws a 95/96 mph fastball without good VAA, but solid iVB and extension that could make it a good foundation for his arsenal. However, he may turn into a reliever as he was used exclusively out of the pen in Triple-A when he returned from injury in September, and his two-pitch focus of fastballs and a strong slider could make him head to the pen for good. I’d be cautious testing the waters on Brown when he arrives, given my concerns about whether the four-seamer can bully batters enough to justify a two-pitch mix.
37. Kai-Wei Teng (SFG, RHP)
Teng tallied nearly 130 frames in Double-A and Triple-A last year, making him one of the first options the Giants will turn to when looking at their farm for a replacement arm. He’s sported 27%+ strikeout rates since 2019, with legit whiff numbers as well, thanks to a low arm angle to earn whiffs on his sinker and four-seamer, a slider & pair, and even curves + changeups to give a wide variety of looks to hitters. He’s a kitchen sink arm with more whiffs than you’d expect and that adaptability makes him an intriguing pitcher, though the high walk rates may make for a bit more volatility than we’d like. He’s an interesting one, possibly without a true mastery of a single offering that will limit his effectiveness at the bigs.
38. Jairo Iriarte (SDP, RHP)
He throws mid-to-upper 90s with spotty command, with his changeup leading his secondaries, followed by a slider that is hit or miss. He has a delivery heavily resembling Pedro Martinez, and while that’s not a fair comparison, it’s hard not to be enamored watching him hurl a baseball. There’s legit electricity in this arm and if he’s able to iron out the walks and give fewer indications of a Cherry Bomb career, he may deserve your attention. Irairte is worth the spec add the moment he gets the call.
39. Joey Cantillo (CLE, LHP)
You should be hyper-aware of Cantillo. The Guardians have little SP depth and Cantillo racked up 111 strikeouts in 95 frames in Triple-A last year…though it did come with a 4.64 ERA and 1.52 WHIP as he held a horrid 13% walk rate. He’s a lefty-slinger who is sure to rack up strikeouts with a filthy changeup and a devastating slider to left-handers. The 94 mph fastball isn’t one to bully too many, but when he’s able to spot it, he can overwhelm. This is likely to be more of a Cherry Bomb starter with some legitimate highs and chaotic lows (the good ole Shag Rug will be very present here), but sure to make waves when he arrives, especially if the curve can join the slider in becoming consistent strike earners.
40. Daniel Espino (CLE, RHP)
He was one of the top MLB prospects until injuries got in the way, including missing all of 2023 with a shoulder injury. The Guardians are sure to be safe with him this season, especially at just 23 years old next year. It’s a big 101 mph fastball with a devastating slider when he’s cooking, with shockingly low walk rates along the way as he carried over 20% Swstr rates in 2021 and 2022. It’s just a matter of health and finding that rhythm again.
41. Tekoah Roby (STL, RHP)
His mid-90s four-seamer with excellent whiffability upstairs paired with a monstrous curve make for an ideal BSB that could make him relevant the second he gets the chance in St. Louis. I wonder how the rest of his repertoire will play out and whether he can recover from a poor showing in the AFL. When chasing prospects, we look for a foundational fastball with a reliable secondary and Roby seems to have both. Circle him when looking for stashes.
42. Griff McGarry (PHI, RHP)
McGarry was a 97 mph arm with a great slider and curve, but took a major step back in 2023 as his poor command became a larger issue. If we’re seeing him in 2024, it means McGarry has taken steps forward with his command, hopefully with his velocity returning to 95+ as well. Be careful jumping in on McGarry as that command has always haunted him, outlining a Cherry Bomb at best. Volatility is not a fun animal to tame in-season.
43. Mason Black (SFG, RHP)
With thirteen starts in Triple-A last year, Black could find the majors soon, and with a 28% strikeout rate with just an 11% SwStr rate, I wonder if he’s more called-strike-focused than ideal for a prospect. He has a low arm angle but is still able to get on top of the ball, suggesting a four-seamer with more iVB than what you expect from typical three-quarters arm slots, while the slider is a vicious offering. If he’s able to learn Webb’s changeup, Black could be something special in the bigs. That’s a MASSIVE leap, though, and for now, we can only hope Black develops the efficiency to last more than five frames in Triple-A to earn a debut before the summer.
44. Wikelman Gonzalez (BOS, RHP)
The smaller-bodied Gonzalez sports a low arm angle that makes his mid-90s heater explode at the top of the zone, catalyzing a 35% strikeout in Double-A with a 14% overall SwStr rate. You love to see that, though it came with a horrid 15% walk rate as he lacks a strong secondary pitch for strikes. There is a legit curve and a developing changeup, and the question is how he’ll develop across more time in the minors after 110+ frames in Double-A in 2023. He’ll likely have some more growing pains in Triple-A before finding a balance of whiffs and strikes that works, making him an unlikely option for a confident pickup this year.
45. Carson Whisenhunt (SFG, LHP)
The southpaw boasted impressive strikeout and whiff marks as he rose quickly up to Double-A – a product of a legit plus changeup that gets featured nearly 40% of the time in his arsenal. The other 60% is the major question, with his high release point reducing the effectiveness of his four-seamer and forcing his curve to do more work than it currently can. If Whisenhunt can add some velocity or a slider/cutter to the mix to help him earn strikes instead of the hittable heater, then there’s legit fantasy potential with that changeup leading the way. His arm action does suggest a gyro slider working well to keep LHBs at bay, which would unlock Whisenhunt as a legit prospect arm as long as the four-seamer isn’t horribly commanded.
46. Landen Roupp (SFG, RHP)
It’s hard not to fall for Roupp’s curveball, and in fact, he did himself as well, sporting it well over 33% of the time in his minor league career, even at times over 50%. It’s a gorgeous yacker, and with a sinker, slider, and changeup to round out the arsenal, there’s a fair amount of hype for Landen as a starter. It’s still unclear how successful the other three offerings will be – the low-to-mid 90s sinker doesn’t wow me – but his clean mechanics and great control in the minors suggest he’s equipped to develop the rest of his arsenal to become a legit starter when he arrives. Pay attention to Landen, even if it may take until mid-season or even 2025 until we see him in the big leagues after just ten games in Double-A last year.
47. Ian Seymour (TBR, LHP)
Command pitcher from the left side with unconventional mechanics who has sported impressive strikeout numbers (near 30%) and SwStr rates (around 14/15%) in Double-A. He locates heaters around the zone with a trio of secondaries and could jump up the ranks quickly with the lackluster Triple-A arms in the Rays’ system. Timing may not work out well with the second half of 2024 hopefully seeing the return of at least one injured arm, but be on the lookout for Seymour over the summer as a sneaky depth arm if he gets the call.
48. Jake Eder (CWS, LHP)
His slider is legit, the question is how good the fastball will be in the year ahead. He’s currently throwing 92-94 and missing the heater of old, and the White Sox are likely going to wait a bit until they see Eder looking more like the prospect from 2021 before TJS. I’m also curious as to the third pitch he will flex in order to showcase that he can be a reliable starter.
49. Luis Gil (NYY, RHP)
Now that I have our PLV App, I was able to take a look at Gil’s four-seamer back in 2021, and that was a wonderful offering. 96/97 mph with great extension, nearly 17 inches of iVB, above-average VAA…Sigh. If only I could trust that he’d be able to locate it upstairs all days. In addition, his slider can be a filthy offering as well, but it’s not one of those “ZOMG LOOK AT THAT” pitches and often fluttered out of his hand as an easy take. Now that he’s back from TJS, the Yankees are sure to have him start in Triple-A more than the two games and four frames he had in 2023 before giving him a shot in the majors and I’m incredibly curious as to whether he can hold 96 mph as a starter across five frames, while hopefully finding a way to throw more strikes with both heaters and sliders. Given how legit that four-seamer is, I’ll have my eye on Gil, but the volume doesn’t look to be there right now.
50. Wilmer Flores (DET, RHP)
I’m not nearly as impressed by Flores. The polish is lacking through A+ and AA, and it could come together with time spent with Tread Athletics and more time in the minors. His arsenal offers a fastball with mid-90s velocity, a cutter for strikes, and a curveball he hopes to get chases with two strikes. Plenty of volatility and rough days on the hill this past year speak to a difficult sell for potential in 2024, though an ironed-out delivery without a massive head-jerk and rapid-end movement could come over time to make him a stable arm in 2025.
51. Joey Estes (OAK, RHP)
He gave us ten frames last year, with his second start flashing excellent BSB command as his four-seamer had solid iVB despite its low 92/93 mph velocity. With a good slider and a developing changeup, I’m curious whether Estes can demand a spot out of camp on an Athletics team that is likely going with the hot hand to make the final spots of the rotation.
52. Mike Vasil (NYM, RHP)
His wide array of weapons makes Vasil the first call-up to start for the Mets this year. Is it worth your time? It likely depends on the team he faces and if he can keep the walks down in Triple-A prior to his debut. There’s promise in his breakers and heater locations, though if you’re searching for a “league winner,” I wouldn’t put Vasil on that list. He’s missing that extra spark to transform him into an arm to slot on your watch list.
Tier 5
Can’t say I have a ton of adoration for all of these, but pitching prospects are literally prospects, in that they are prospective in becoming major leaguers. What are you going on about Nick. I’m saying development is still happening and they could grow plenty in the year ahead in ways that make them significant.
53. Allan Winans (ATL, RHP)
Armed with a four-seamer that he really shouldn’t throw, Winans has an interesting sinker/change/slider mix that could work. He can sit arm-side with sinkers and down against LHB, tunneling the changeup well (and abused against LHB), while the sub 80 mph slider (read: curve-like) can land in the zone for strikes and become a whiff pitch against right-handers. I see that working out in the right direction, though I wonder if he’ll lean properly into the three-pitch mix and shelve the four-seamer. Seriously, it’s horrendous as a dead-zone heater with no attributes to suggest success with a 68.8% ICR rate. Yes, that is ZEROTH PERCENTILE.
54. Quinn Priester (PIT, RHP)
He has these brief moments where his gyro slider is filthy while he pumps a well-spotted 96 mph sinker to back it up. Then his cut-action four-seamer is poorly placed, he can’t locate the breaker, and the sinker gets laced. It’s far from polished and even when it all comes together, it’ll come down to his fastballs being good enough to support a clearly wicked slider (assuming it is well-commanded, too!). There’s a whole lot of growth needed here and he’ll get a rotation spot only if the Pirates are truly desperate.
55. Jimmy Joyce (SEA, RHP)
He’ll get the promotion to Triple-A this year, or maybe even stick around in Double-A as the Mariners enjoy keeping their pitching prospects away from the PCL as much as possible. He pitched in the AFL this past year and features a true two-seamer and a changeup that plays off of it + a curveball as his major mix-up offering. The stuff isn’t exciting while his command fluctuates – typical for a lower arm-angle pitcher like Joyce who relies on getting on the side of the ball. He could turn into a groundball machine with the lively ride on his heater, which generally outlines a capped ceiling for fantasy managers (read: higher BABIPs and fewer strikeouts).
56. Bryan Mata (BOS, RHP)
He’s a sinkerballer who was able to put up a solid 30% strikeout rate in 80+ frames in Triple-A across 2022, though his injuries limited him to just 27 IP last year, while his control went out the window with a 20%+ walk rate that was higher than his strikeout rate. It’ll be easy to wave those aside if he finds a groove in Triple-A early with his sinker and solid breaker, though I wouldn’t get my hopes up.
57. Sean Burke (CWS, RHP)
He was going to be the option last year for the ChiSox until shoulder soreness slowed him down as he pitched in just nine games in Triple-A last year. His heater comes with excellent extension and iVB, but the low 90s velocity and poor VAA hurt him. The change and curve are the two focuses, but I worry they lack the spark to make Burke worthwhile in the majors, at the very least for fantasy relevancy.
58. Dominic Hamel (NYM, RHP)
I wonder if his four-seamer has the pitch shape we want to counteract its low-90s velocity. He has a variety of options in his arsenal, including two solid breakers, and if that four-seamer does play up, that makes for a surprisingly valuable arm when he does make his debut – he’s boasted 13%+ SwStr rates and a 30%+ strikeout rate in both A+ and AA. I don’t expect the Mets to turn to Hamel early in 2024 though.
59. Jackson Wolf (PIT, LHP)
Acquired from the Padres over the summer, Wolf is a big southpaw with a fastball struggling to hit 90 mph. The horizontal breaker and changeup make pre-velocity jump Sean Manaea the closest comp, though Wolf’s heater doesn’t jump on batters in the same way as that of the Baby Giraffe. The Pirates may turn to him for a few starts given their depleted rotation and I would avoid Wolf when he gets a start.
60. Angel Bastardo (BOS, RHP)
He sits mid-90s without an overpowering heater, but his secondaries are where he thrives with a solid changeup from the right side. There’s still polish to be found as he gets more frames in Double-A this year (just three games after being promoted in 2023), hopefully bringing his walk rates under 10% and replicating the 16/17% SwStr rates of A+ ball – a possible hurdle given the excellence of his secondaries that may not have the same effect against more disciplined hitters. I wouldn’t expect Bastardo to make a massive leap into the majors this year, though if he soars and gets pushed to Triple-A, there’s a chance he makes an appearance late in the second half.
61. Yu-Min Lin (ARI, LHP)
Lin should enter the year in Triple-A featuring a secondary-focused approach with his fastball sitting in the low 90s. The hope here is a decent Toby if he were to start regularly, which may play well in front of the stellar Diamondbacks’ defense. There’s a chance it evolves into Holly territory if the secondaries hold their dominance from Double-A, which propelled a 28% strikeout rate in over 120 frames. Both breakers show promise while the southpaw’s changeup is sure to ruin the days of many right-handers.
62. Julian Aguiar (CIN, RHP)
This great article on Aguiar gives a good look at him from 2022, which showcases his lower arm angle at low-to-mid 90s that allows his four-seamer to play up better than expected. The breakers look sharp and his changeup has legit fade to miss bats. I’m not sure if he’s profiling out to be an explosive arm that demands attention when he arrives, but if he can find 97 mph consistently (he was able to hit it at times), there could be something legit here with more command polish than traditional prospect arms.
63. Justin Armbruester (BAL, RHP)
His four-seamer has absurd vertical break, flirting with 19 inches of it, though it comes in at just 92 mph. Decent extension and VAA don’t harm it, though I wonder if the iVB is enough to force domination upstairs when none of the other aspects (velo, extension, VAA) amplify it. The one element not touched upon here is location, which is still a work in progress for Armbruester. His heater isn’t as precise as other prospect arms, while the slider, cutter, and curve have moments but aren’t as reliable as other starters. I’m curious how he’ll develop in Triple-A across 2024, though I’d be cautious to grab him if he gets a shot this year.
64. Freddy Tarnok (OAK, RHP)
To some scouts, Tarnok (along with Salinas) was the prize of the Sean Murphy deal. His four-seamer earns a TON of iVB, but sadly his high arm release hurts the pitch, creating a poor VAA, while his low extension and 95 mph velocity hold back the pitch. Meanwhile, there’s more work to be done with locating his slider and changeup down to create a proper BSB approach. That said, if Tarnok can find the right rhythm and locate appropriately, he could turn into a proper MLB starter…assuming he’s fully recovered from the shoulder strain that ended his 2023 season.
65. Jarlin Susana (WAS, RHP)
He’s the pitching gem of the Nationals’ farm system. Acquired in the Soto deal, Susana hurls upper-90s fastballs with a devastating low-90s slider and is working on polishing a full arsenal. He’s still incredibly young at just 19 years old and likely another full season (at least) away from the majors, though I won’t rule out a rapid ascension given the dearth of options in the Nationals’ system.
66. Dylan Lesko (SDP, RHP)
I initially didn’t include Lesko in the Padres breakdown since he’s only tossed three games in A+ ball, but who knows, he could fly up the system this year given his fantastic curve and changeup, even if he hasn’t looked quite as polished since returning from TJS. It’s a lovely delivery with mid-90s heat and that leggggit slowball and merged with a Padres crew with massive holes in their rotation, Lesko could get a shot despite many others getting a first crack in the majors. At the very least, I wouldn’t be surprised to Lesko in 2025.
67. Cole Henry (WAS, RHP)
Report from Prospects Live is a ~94 mph heater with potential to grow into a strong spin four-seamer that can be commanded with a massive hook. Given his young age, this could be interesting if Henry develops a proper third offering, possibly turning him into an Aaron Nola comp with his heater and curve action.
This is the best video I could find on Cole Henry
68. Cade Cavalli (WAS, RHP)
We saw him briefly in 2022 and he had TJS right before the start of the 2023 season. The velocity was above 95 mph (at times 97/98), though the heater’s shape did not make for an exciting arm. While his four-seamer improves across re-learning his mechanics, there’s a chance his big hook is a reliable #2 + he finds the nasty changeup that he flashed at times, though I wouldn’t hold my breath.
69. Chase Dollander (COL, RHP)
A major pick for the Rockies from Tennessee, Dollander was shut down in 2023 by the Rockies as they took things slow for the college star. He had a mid-90s fastball that overwhelmed batters with a fantastic slider, flashing plus with both his curve and changeup as well. The right-hander could quickly jump up the ranks in 2024, likely starting in Double-A and possibly joining the team by the final weeks if he cruises through the ranks. The Coors risk is too much to consider + we haven’t seen him pitch in professional ball yet.
70. Caleb Kilian (CHC, RHP)
Sadly, I’m not interested in Caleb and I don’t think we’re going to see him get another major shot inside the rotation – there are too many better options to consider. Caleb doesn’t have an overpowering four-seamer, which means he needs to adapt in other ways: sinkers aplenty, low four-seamers for called strikes, or learning a cutter instead. Unlikely, of course. His most reliable breaker is a knuckle-curve, which is a solid pitch, but far from what he needs to make him a legit starter.
71. Adam Mazur (WAS, RHP)
Mazur sat low-to-mid 90s on the heater in Double-A and with his over-the-top delivery, he’s able to get plenty of depth on his slider and curve to land his breakers in the zone and get whiffs on pitches in the dirt. With his skinny frame, Mazur could regain some of his lost velocity from 2022 if he fills out more, helping him maintain his low 5% walk rate as he works to fine-tune his pitches around the edges more often than simply “getting it over the plate.” He should turn a few heads when he gets the call and I’m curious whether his four-seamer plays well in the majors given what seems to be a higher release point than ideal.
72. Blade Tidwell (NYM, RHP)
He throws hard with a 95+ mph heater and pairs it with a filthy two-plane slider that instantly makes him a considerable arm for fantasy when he gets the call. The problem? High walk rates above 10% and lack of third pitch. He had just 34 frames in Double-A last season and hopefully he makes the jump to Triple-A with more steps forward to becoming a promising young arm.
73. Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN, RHP)
He doesn’t have the velocity of 2021, now settling in the low-90s, and what I saw of him in the majors doesn’t speak to the fantasy upside you’re looking for from a prospect. Richardson boasts solid command for a young arm, but when the best-case scenario is a Toby while you’re enduring the Shag Rug, you have to ask yourself why you’d take a shot at this. The Win and K ceilings are too low.
74. Clayton Beeter (NYY, RHP)
Beeter was added to the 40-man and may get a few chances to start this year for the Yankees. The control is a major concern with 75 walks in 130 frames across Double-A and Triple-A last season, while his slider is the major force in his arsenal. Sadly, his 93/94 mph heater comes with horrible extension that makes him a major risk in the majors. There’s decent iVB on it given how much he gets on top of the ball, but sadly that lowers his VAA to mediocre levels, and it’s a pitch that will get him into trouble. I wouldn’t consider Beeter for fantasy squads as he seems prime for inefficiency and plenty of long balls along with maybe a strikeout per inning. It’s not worth it.
75. Sem Robberse (STL, RHP)
He’s a young 21-year-old, though being added to the 40-man by the Cardinals suggests he could get a chance in 2023 and that should intrigue you. He features a great changeup and sweeper that helped him return a 16%+ SwStr rate in Triple-A last season, though his increase in walks as he made the jump does bring some concern. If that gets ironed out, the Cardinals may be inclined to give Sem the chance before Tekoah and Hence, though I really don’t like his four-seamer’s shape at just 92 mph. He’s going to have to rely a ton on command, and with that walk rate, it doesn’t quite seem like he’s ready to be fantasy-relevant. Far too risky.
76. Matt Canterino (MIN, RHP)
He’s suuuuuper over-the-top with a weird delivery, and we haven’t seen him since getting TJS at the end of 2022. However, the Twins don’t have all the depth in the land at SP and I could see Canterino coming up in the second half once he has established himself once again on the bump. Can’t say I love the heater a ton, but the changeup is legit and he pairs it with a solid power slider in the mid-80s that thrives with the arm-slot. I hope he’s looking just as good when we see him return this season in the minors, if not better now that the pain is gone.
77. Carlos F. Rodriguez (MIL, RHP)
Carlos had a great 2023 in Double-A and didn’t soar in his sole outing in Triple-A, but don’t let that introduction to a higher level deter you. His 30% strikeout rate in Double-A was catalyzed by a 15-16% SwStr rate as he sported a legit slider and changeup, though the fastball doesn’t seem like a pitch that can dominate at the big-league level. I’m curious what we get from him as he gets more experience this year against quality hitters, and with Gasser and Misiorowski getting all the attention, Rodriguez could get some frames if the Brewers want to play it safe with those two (moreso Miwiorowski).
78. Spencer Arrighetti (HOU, RHP)
The Astros often find ways to squeeze value from otherwise overlooked arms and with the way Arrighetti is getting stretched out to five frames while maintaining solid velocity suggests that he could be a starter later this season with his four-pitch mix. Don’t expect this to be your next Urquidy or France impact play when they first arrived, though he may turn into a streamer with a decent Win chance if all things go right.
79. Forrest Whitley (HOU, RHP)
Remember him? With all his injuries and a 50 game drug suspension, Whitley returned from TJS last season and wasn’t looking pretty. Sub 10% SwStr rates with poor command, and it feels like Whitley is more primed for the pen than the deep five-pitch workhorse starter we envisioned when he was drafted. The pedigree is obviously there, which generally says “there is a ceiling in there somewhere, right?”, forcing us to at least pay attention to his 2024, and while he’s clearly doing everything he can to return there (see the video below), it seems like a nigh impossible journey back to the top after such a rough fall reminiscent of falling down Springfield Gorge.
80. Matt Sauer (KCR, RHP)
He was the second pick of the Rule-5 draft, suggesting Sauer could appear this season in the majors and forcing his way onto this list. Considering the rough options at the backend of the Kansas City rotation, it’s possible Sauer maneuvers his way to a starting spot at some point this year, though I question how good his heater is around 94/95 mph, and he’s most likely situated for a relief role with his fastball/slider approach. This isn’t the sleeper play we want, sadly.
81. Noah Schultz (CHW, LHP)
I overlooked Schultz initially given he made his pro debut in Single-A last season with just 27 innings in ten starts. However, the White Sox have suggested Schultz could debut sooner than expected and even though he’ll be only 20 years old until early August, Schultz’s absurd slider with solid command and a mid-90s heater suggests he could perform at the big league level this year, especially if it comes with development we normally expect from top prospects at his age. I have to believe he’ll be focusing on crafting a changeup to help take down RHB and create a true three-pitch mix, and without the “slinger” delivery we often see from southpaws with devastating sliders, it makes me encouraged he can maintain the sub-10% walk rates he held in his 27 frames. Don’t stash him in redraft leagues, but mark him as a “must add” if he gets the call to start this year.
82. Robby Snelling (SDP, LHP)
Snelling moved through A, A+, and up to AA ball in his first year in the minors as a 19-year-old, ending the year with four starts across 17.1 IP in Double-A, and I don’t think the Padres will be aggressive promoting him to the majors this year. There’s still a fair amount to figure out with his full arsenal, led by a very legit spiked-curve and a 95/96 mph heater that I worry has a bit too steep to turn into a whiff, and without a strong changeup to help against RHB, nor that bullying fastball, I think Snelling isn’t a prime promotion candidate for the Padres, who currently have a slew of other young arms to experiment with inside the rotation this year.
Tier 6
You may see them appear in 2024, but does it matter? It’s a true “wait-and-see” for these, especially for those who have so many others ahead of them who will get fed first, though I’ll obviously be scouring through their Statcast pages (and our new Minor League PLV APP!) to see if they have made any substantial changes to suggest they will make a proper impact.
83. Landon Knack (LAD, RHP)
We may see some Knack this year with 10 games in Triple-A, and I wonder what impact it’ll be for fantasy. His 91 mph heater has 17 iVB, but middling VAA and extension and that vertical movement isn’t enough to outweigh the rest. However, injuries got in the way for Knack last year, and there are reports of higher velocity that could hold through a season of consistent innings. Meanwhile, he has a trio of secondaries in a curve, change, and slider that could all be effective at the big league level. Nothing that makes me leap out of my chair, though I can see Knack blossoming as he gets calibrated in Triple-A this season. Monitor the SwStr rates that fell from 15% to 10-11% moving from Double-A to Triple-A. If those start surging again, you’ll know he’s found it.
84. Corbin Martin (ARI, RHP)
He suffered a lat tear and missed all of the 2023 season. Martin was a major part of the Zack Greinke trade years ago and could vault to the majors quickly if he performs well in Triple-A early in the year. He came to the majors in 2022 with a four-pitch mix without nailing down a proper approach to merit a regular starting gig. It was a 94 mph heater that needed an extra tick or two to get over the hump, while his curve and slider were inconsistent despite showing flashes of promise. Martin leaned on a changeup a bit too often and failed to find a rhythm, returning horrid strike rates despite over 15% usage. There’s potential if he can hit the reset button in 2024, but it needs to come with obvious growth.
85. Mason Montgomery (TBR, LHP)
I want to be more excited, but it’s heavy reliance on a 91/92 mph heater that plays up a bit more than the velocity, but not enough to justify its enormous usage. The changeup has promise and it’s possible a slider (and a curve?) can develop with his over-the-top delivery, but this ain’t it.
86. Cole Wilcox (TBR, RHP)
Looked rough in his first year back from TJS, but could get his mid-90s velocity back with more time on the bump. At just 24 years old, he’s got plenty of time to develop and rise up the system. Expect a fastball + slider approach, hoping to have a changeup in the tank when he eventually gets the call in late 2024 or early 2025.
87. Keider Montero (DET, RHP)
He’s kinda interesting…? Not a great Triple-A line with a near 5.00 ERA and 1.33 WHIP at a strikeout per inning, though he sports a 95 mph heater that excels when he’s able to spot it upstairs. It’s a low arm angle that helps the7 pitch perform upstairs, while the days when his slider can find the zone keep the approach alive. It’s most likely to be a headache of unreliability if he does get opportunities.
88. Darius Vines (ATL, RHP)
It’s a good changeup that stays around the zone, but it doesn’t come with the fade or drop that you’d expect in a pitcher’s #1 offering. The four-seamer’s 90 mph velocity (at best) needs more help in the secondaries, with a cutter to earn strikes that is fine, and a slider that doesn’t do a whole lot. Nah.
89. Taylor Dollard (SEA, RHP)
He tossed just eight frames after enduring a labrum injury that led to season-ending surgery and sadly, there isn’t much to attract fantasy managers. His low-90s fastball features few exciting attributes, his slider is standard and lacks electricity, while his big low-70s curveball is his most effective offering. Wait, I can’t think of a pitcher who only excels with a 72-mph curveball. Exactly. Throw in the fact Dollard shouldn’t arrive until the middle of the year at the earliest – remember, just eight frames last year and will need some time to find a rhythm – you can likely forget all about this blurb.
89. Thaddeus Ward (WSN, RHP)
The dude has a ridiculous slider but that’s it. He seems more like a relief option than a proper starter without a strong heater or other secondaries on which to rely heavily.
90. Josh Stephan (TEX, RHP)
He made a splash in Double-A last season with 66 frames of 30%+ strikeouts and a near 5% walk rate. Thing is, it’s a heavy slider focus without a great fastball, and his changeup lacks the consistency to pull him from the lamented two-pitch pitcher moniker. He’ll need to do more with his heater (low 90s with sink and East/West focused) and find a strong third pitch to be of proper consideration for fantasy.
92. Carson Palmquist (COL, LHP)
He’s a southpaw similar to Mr. Rock, but with a better, more debilitating slider, as he held a 34% strikeout rate in Double-A last year across 92.1 frames and a very funky delivery. However, it’s the only weapon for Palmquist, who doesn’t have the heater or changeup to become a reliable starter quite yet. I wonder if he can take another step and lean into the delivery to get more out of his arsenal, but it’s not there yet.
93. Joe Rock (COL, LHP)
He’s a low 90s velocity, 6’6″ lefty without the best stuff. A good breaker that sweeps across to mess up left-handers, but the fastball doesn’t dominate and the changeup isn’t far enough along to help against right-handers. His name is perfect for Colorado, but the stuff just isn’t there yet to be considered for fantasy given the whole “Coors is Undefeated” schtick.
94. Michael McGreevy (STL, RHP)
I’m not going to go deep into McGreevy as the reports I’ve seen outline a pitcher without proper fantasy relevance. He’s a Toby in his best world, with a sinker focus and without a proper whiff pitch. Maybe the slider or curve develop, or maybe his low-90s heater can gain some velocity, but he shouldn’t be on your radar at the moment.
95. Cristian Mena (ARI, RHP)
His command was a bit wonky in 2023 and I worry that he doesn’t carry the velocity nor VAA you want for his extension and 17+ iVB to blossom properly. The slider gets a larger focus than his curve, though the latter grades far better, and I’m trying to squint to see an arm we can trust in our fantasy leagues. He’s certainly a “wait and see” kind of pitcher who could force his way into the rotation once other options have been depleted. I wouldn’t carry high expectations as nothing in the profile stuck out in a major way.
96. Ky Bush (CHW, LHP)
Low 90s heater from the left side, with a solid slider and curve, and a changeup that flashes plus. Command has been an issue and without a plus heater or a neck-breaking weapon in his arsenal, Bush doesn’t seem destined to dominate your fantasy leagues when he gets the call. If the walk rate comes down and the changeup takes form or velocity bump comes his way, he could get more attention as he nears his debut.
97. Carson Seymour (SFG, RHP)
It’s a great slider from Seymour, but sitting 93/94 isn’t enough to warrant your attention quite yet. He’ll likely get his chance in Triple-A this year and if he’s showcasing a bit more in his arsenal to improve upon last year’s 11% SwStr rate, then we can begin to pay attention properly.
98. Blayne Enlow (MIN, RHP)
Enlow took a major step back in 2023, dropping velocity as his SwStr rate fell four points to just 9.3% in 45 frames of Triple-A. Yikes. When he’s cooking, his pair of breakers demolish batters, throwing effective strikes while limiting free passes easily. However, that loss of velocity changed everything, which made all of his stuff take a massive dip. Pay attention if the whiffs return, but in all likelihood, they aren’t coming back for a while.
99. Maddux Bruns (LAD, LHP)
He’s young and very likely doesn’t see the bigs this year as he’ll turn 22 years old in June and has only pitched as high as A+ thus far. Walk rates are high as well and there’s still a ton of command wrinkles to iron out, though he’s an explosive arm. He’s a large southpaw with a strong heater in the mid-90s and a pair of stuff heavy breakers that suggest a legit arm if he can make the tweaks to find the zone. We’ll talk more in 2025.
100. Blake Walston (ARI, LHP)
He’s a lefty sitting around 90 mph without distinct command nor the overwhelming breaker that demands success in the majors. He could get a shot among an Arizona team with few depth starters and I wouldn’t raise an eyebrow when the time comes.
101. Dylan Dodd (ATL, LHP)
Sadly, my hype in early 2023 was unfounded. I thought he was a command southpaw who could go up-and-in with four-seamers and spot sliders underneath, and while that slider was generally effective, the four-seamer was not. It’s not wise to jump into this one.
Yep, you got one extra prospect in the end. Congrats, you deserve it for reading this far.
I’m surprised to not see Brock Porter on here anywhere
Considering he’s only pitched about 70 innings in Single-A and will turn just 21 this year, I don’t expect to see Brock Porter in the majors this season.
Nick, very excited you are doing these rankings.
Where does Rhett Lowder fall in your rankings? Was he just outside the top 100?
https://pitcherlist.com/rhett-lowder-fantasy-baseball-breakdown/
Honestly, I can’t tell you since he has yet to pitch professional ball at all. Given how rare it is for an SP to make his debut the same year he enters the minors, I didn’t rank him.
I’ll be able to properly assess him once I get some solid data and proper video of him against minor league players.
Shane Baz?