Welcome to the Top 400 Starting Pitchers For 2024 Fantasy Baseball. This is an update to my Top 200 Starting Pitchers For 2024 from October last year.
After shoving all my strategies and write-ups of all 400 players + something close to 300 videos into one article, I quickly found out it crashed phones and browsers, and I felt like an idiot. I’m so sorry everyone, I really should have just done these individually spliced articles first.
Here’s what we’ve done:
- All ranks are now spliced into groups of 20, 25, and 50
- Rankings Philosophy article to read separately
- Left the main up for those who can handle it
Please read the Rankings Philosophy article before reading the rankings. I cannot express enough how it outlines my thoughts on drafting in 12-teamers and why I have ranked these players as I have.
Thanks for your passion and enthusiasm for this article – it pushes me more every year, and I already have new ideas for next year to make this easier a better presentation for all of you.
AGA,
-Nick
Tier 11 – Deeper League Toby
I don’t encourage chasing this for 12-teamers, but I recognize they could jump to Tier 9 and are safer to grab in deeper leagues than Tier 10. To each their own, you grab what’s best for you.
81. Michael Wacha (KCR, RHP)
The changeup is unreal and his command + approach is fantastic, making me surprisingly dig Wacha more than I thought I would. His four-seamer has a ton of iVB, though its steep VAA does hurt it, making it more of a surprise upstairs pitch and something that can work low for called strikes instead. This is the Zac Gallen approach: If you have a steeper VAA on your heater with a high iVB, then you can steal low called strikes on your four-seamer, then pair it with changeups and curves effectively. And what do you know, Wacha holds a 21% called strike on four-seamers – good for 80th percentile in the majors.
There are small adjustments to be made with pitch selection here and there, and he does feature a much higher ICR% than I’d like across his arsenal, but 33% dope changeups will keep him afloat throughout the year (70% strikes, 33% ICR, 21% SwStr, 32% CSW… incredible. It can do no wrong). Like Lugo, the move to Kansas City should work for Wacha, especially given their tendency to let pitchers extend past 85 pitches and fight for six full innings, not to mention the drop in infield defense shouldn’t affect a fly-ball arm like Wacha as much.
Health is always in question for Wacha, though health matters far less past SP #50, where you’re happy to get any productive innings from the starters you draft at this point. If health is the biggest problem, then enjoy the production you get before the time on IL – far better than those whose quality is the question at hand.
82. Seth Lugo (KCR, RHP)
Lugo’s sinker is a lively pitch that destroys batters when it doesn’t leak over the middle of the plate. It’s rare to see whiffs on fastballs away and off the plate, but Lugo’s sinker can do that against left-handers, while it earns many chases on the handle of bats to right-handers. The big hook and sweeper do their part as well, though I wish I had more praise for his four-seamer and changeup.
Seriously, that four-seamer is not great. We’re talking a whopping 50% ICR last year, which means its incredibly high 71% strike rate may not have been the best approach, especially with its locations being well over the plate. It does have solid iVB and VAA marks, but there’s some tweaking to be made here to prevent damage, especially without the San Diego infield defense behind him to scoop up the near 50% groundballs he’ll induce.
Lugo is missing that one last piece to solidify the arsenal when his sinker can’t spot the edges, preventing him from elevating into Top 40 SP territory. The groundball focus makes his WHIP a touch higher than ideal (stupid grounder BABIP) and those needing volume should feel relatively safe with Lugo, especially with the move to Kansas City – the Win chances may be slightly depreciated (the Royals should be a better offense in 2024, though), while the park and division should help, even if there is a more balanced schedule than years past.
83. Braxton Garrett (MIA, RHP)
The 23%+ strikeout rate is unlikely to stick for another season as it was fueled by a ridiculous three-start run of 30 strikeouts in June. At his core, Garrett is a mini version of Cole Ragans, featuring a fastball (sinker) and cutter he uses to jam right-handers, a slider that is used half of the time as a strikeout offering, a curveball exclusive for early called strikes, and a changeup that…isn’t great. Obviously, Ragans’ stuff across the board is better, but his command is as well. Garrett has his moments like any “Toby” where he can get into a rhythm locating sinkers and cutters perfectly on the inside edge to right-handers, landing low sliders, and getting outs away with sinkers and changeups, but to expect him to run through a full season isn’t wise. He’s the perfect streamer or mid-season add when looking for some extra volume.
84. Jameson Taillon (CHC, RHP)
When considering Taillon, it’s best to throw away a lot of his 2023 season. His first half came with plenty of struggles, from losing confidence in his cutter, to injuries and lacking any sort of rhythm. I had the opportunity to sit down with Taillon in December (listen to the chat on our podcast network), where he opened up about his four-seamer, developing his sweeper, and adjustments he plans to make for next season.
It’s weird writing this blurb as I feel the numbers from 2023 don’t paint the picture of what to expect. His four-seamer was battered by right-handers as he left it out over the plate far too often, though I don’t expect the pitch to act the same next season. The potential is there for him to soar consistently across six frames, demolishing right-handers with a bevy of options – cutters down-and-away, sweepers off the plate, sinkers inside, and surprise four-seamers upstairs – while the key will be to create a game plan against left-handers. Taillon could return to the cutter inside, mixing in a new splitter, more sweepers, and four-seamers upstairs, it’s a matter of getting the work done this off-season to execute it next year.
What’s fun for me is understanding how Taillon could surprise many early in the year, allowing us to draft him late and paying close attention to his skill set early on. I really hope that four-seamers find their way upstairs consistently once again.
85. John Means (BAL, LHP)
Each year, there’s hidden value in the draft that goes to pitchers who deliver “Relevant Volume”. Not your guys who have a 3.00 ERA and 1.05 WHIP, but who make 30 starts, give you 12-15 Wins, close to a strikeout per game, and an ERA and WHIP combo that is better than what’s on the wire. Means could be that guy…if health allows him. The team context is on his side, he has the tools in his arsenal to string together six innings comfortably (it’s a fantastic changeup, a four-seamer that can earn whiffs upstairs, and a slider + curve that we’ve seen steal strikes in the past), it’s simply a matter concerning about his elbow inflammation in late September after a return from not only TJS, but a back injury as well.
Sadly, the raw skills don’t scream “breakout” like they used to. His velocity came back at 91/92 mph, not the 93+ we saw in 2021, while the development we were anticipating on his breakers back in the spring of 2022 was back to square one. I have some small concerns about location consistency as well, rooted in Means’ delivery tilting him toward third base, forcing a bit of wobble on release instead of geared straight toward home plate. It prevents him from getting on top of his changeup, while also affecting his ability to locate high-and-tight fastballs to right-handers. It’s something that can be overcome in time once he gets into a rhythm, though.
Means is an arm to consider to pad the end of your rosters, someone may find himself sticking around far longer than you expected. The home run rates of old will be lower given Walltimore’s existence, while the Wins could pile up quickly. The moment health gets in the way, though, it’ll be wise to cut your losses.
Update: Means is delayed and will not be ready by opening day. The expectation is “about a month”, marking a May return to the field. He’s not worth an IL stash in most leagues.
Tier 12 – The Possible Spring Pickups + Some Old Guys
Monitor all these pitchers in the spring to see how their abilities have changed since last year + check if they’ve earned a spot out of camp.
86. Tanner Houck (BOS, RHP)
Houck has it set against right-handed batters. It’s a sinker/slider combo that eats up batters on both sides of the plate. Sinkers go backdoor and inside to earn called strikes and weak grounders as its elite drop and exceptional horizontal ride make it a worm-burner that nullifies power bats easily. They set up his two-plane slider that carves up strikeouts down-and-away with ease, while confidently landing over the plate as well. It’s filthy and RHBs are in trouble against Houck.
However, those are the only skills Houck brings to the table, which doesn’t quite work against left-handed bats. He’s tried a splitter, but that pitch was demolished and returned a poor 53% strike rate last year – a mark I wouldn’t expect to rise given the pitch’s difficulty to perfect. His four-seamer is a pitch that should be permanently shelved in all but two-strike counts when he can surprise batters up and out of the zone, and his cutter doesn’t do a whole lot. It’s possible the latter can be refined with time and turn into a reliable strike offering against LHBs, while the slider could become the back-foot threat Chris Sale made famous from the opposite side.
The Red Sox seem determined to give it a shot with Houck and we’ll see in the spring if he’s able to find a good plan of attack against lefties as the sinker/slider should continue to keep him afloat against the majority of hitters. I wouldn’t classify Houck as a stellar command arm, though, and it makes me concerned he won’t be able to find the right groove to rid himself of the dreaded Cherry Bomb label. However, to his credit, that sinker helps him generate quick outs, which helped him reach the sixth more often than expected. Just figure out a better cutter or changeup, please. That’s the last piece Houck needs to keep him locked in the rotation indefinitely.
87. Charlie Morton (ATL, RHP)
Morton’s walk rate jumped plenty last year and it’s a product of his cutter taking a major step back from a near 70% strike rate pitch to just 59%. Throw fewer reliable strikes –> you’re gonna have a bad time. That 1.43 WHIP is ridiculously high, though, and it’s hard to believe Morton is going to return as a 40-year-old without making some adjustments.
Here’s what I would do. Morton’s four-seamer is rough. It’s a dead-zone heater that found too much of the zone, allowed a ton of hits with a high ICR, didn’t get whiffs, held a middling 29% CSW, and is sure to disappoint again. Instead, I’d lean into the arm-side movement of his sinker and do everything to get the dang thing inside to right-handers, while keeping curves in the zone and cutters away. Reverse the plan for left-handers: cutters gloveside and curves for strikes, while utilizing the changeup more as it carries plus drop and fade.
Nick, what do you know? Yeah, that’s a great point. I’m not sure what we’ll get from Morton, but he’ll likely have a strikeout rate above 20% and flirt with 25% as he’ll go 40%+ curveballs once again, while I can only hope he figures out the rest of his repertoire to improve his walk rate without making his hit rate climb. Few places are better to pitch for than in Atlanta though, right?
88. Erick Fedde (CHW, RHP)
Look who it is. Don’t Trust The Feddes, right? I think so? If we get the Fedde from 2022, obviously we want nothing to do with this. However, he spent a year in the KBO where he was the best pitcher in the league, to the tune of 2.00 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 209 strikeouts in 180.1 frames. But that’s the KBO! Very fair, though Fedde is not the same pitcher of old. Eric Longenhagen broke down many of the changes Fedde made, including better control, an improved slider feel, a new splitter for whiffs, a sinker that generates more sink and grounders, a cutter to jam left-handers, and a four-seamer that can hit 96 mph, creating a complete five-pitch mix. That outlines a Toby in my book and if you’re searching for volume, Fedde is sure to get a ton of innings for the White Sox, especially with what should be a much-improved strike rate (and thus walk rate). I’d be kinda intrigued about it, though the Wins will be difficult to come by. Not the worst last-round pick, especially if Fedde goes the opening weekend – he’d get the Tigers and be a super sneaky stream. If Fedde looks mediocre there, you can swap him out at the first FAAB period to a younger arm who hasn’t even made a start yet.
89. Trevor Rogers (MIA, LHP)
Rogers should not be ignored. He had just four starts in 2023 and then disappeared to injury for the rest of the season. Injury risk Nick! At the price point of drafts (read: FREE) injury risk means nothing. If he’s starting out of spring and inside the Marlin’s rotation, chase the upside. His 93 mph four-seamer could return to its 94/95 velocity from 2021 and I adore that he split his fastballs into high four-seamers and low/LHB-jamming sinkers with elite arm-side movement in the few games we saw. His changeup is still fantastic and his sweeper could be a reliable strike pitch. The tools are there, it’s more about health than anything. Watch for him sitting 94 mph (and hopefully a reliable slider?) in the spring. If it’s there, I’m circling him in drafts.
90. James Paxton (LAD, LHP)
Paxton to the Dodgers makes all the sense. Sign a pitcher to take over for April while Buehler ramps up, and then by the time Paxton inevitably gets hurt or fatigued, Buehler slides in to take his place. I kinda love taking Paxton in my drafts given his showcase of quality in his early starts each season before his body fails to keep up with his desires to pitch six frames. The team situation is great, he’s likely to pound 95/96 mph heaters that effectively dodge damage due to elite extension, and if he has his curve and/or cutter working, you’re going to get bankable production while you’re searching for long-term options on the wire in April. Just don’t hold on too tightly once he stumbles, okay?
91. Ricky Tiedemann (TOR, LHP)
Impressive Triple-A debut for Ricky Tiedemann tonight.
4 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K#NextLevelpic.twitter.com/sm7FQNsnDO
— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) September 23, 2023
I remember seeing Tiedemann last spring training and believing in his 99 mph heater paired with a vicious slider that can go back-foot to RHBs. I’ve since cooled down a bit on him given the questionable shape of his 95 mph heater (it was a max velo of 99 mph, sadly) that features extremely low iVB marks, and I worry that he doesn’t have the pristine command required to maneuver it around the zone to set up his deadly breaker and his changeup that returned fantastic Stuff+ marks in Triple-A. The Jays have been slow with Tiedemann throughout the minors (justifiably so after he was impacted by a shoulder injury last season), which splashes cold water on the idea of Tiedemann appearing in the rotation early in the season. That said, the moment he appears later this year – who else do they have to replace a starter in the rotation? – he’ll be an instant pick-up. I sure hope that when the time comes, he throws enough strikes and is able to keep the velocity up without shoulder soreness impacting him. Is he someone to stash in 12-teamer drafts? I’m leaning away from the idea given how long you’ll likely be waiting and sacrificing a valuable roster spot in April. That’s up to you, though.
92. Reese Olson (DET, RHP)
Olson is super fun. His slider is filth McGee and is sure to carry him again in 2024 as his go-to pitch in any situation, while I can see him take another step forward with his changeup, a pitch that falls off the table and has massive whiff potential. Expect a better strike rate in the year ahead as he gets more opportunities to get its feel.
The real question is his heaters. The four-seamer just isn’t good at all – poor break, low extension, terrible locations – while the sinker performed well as its aggressive arm-side movement was able to land on the inside edge roughly half the time. If Olson can favor the sinker more and create difficult at-bats as he avoids the heart of the plate, you may find yourself rostering a shockingly efficient starter with a 25% strikeout rate in the depths of the draft. I generally don’t like going for pitchers without strong four-seamers, but this sinker/slider/change combo looks legit, especially when baking in general development.
93. Garrett Whitlock (BOS, RHP)
Unlike Houck, Whitlock has both elements he needs: a devastating two-plane slider that destroys RHBs and an elite arm-action changeup that comes with a 10-inch drop vs. his sinker – all that allows him to handle RHBs and LHBs alike. The problem? His sinker isn’t nearly as good as Houck’s. He’s battled injuries. His slider and changeup make too many mistakes. That’s three problems. WHATEVER. That sinker was a better offering in the past, but Whitlock’s tendency to stay away for called strikes instead of jamming inside doesn’t help the situation, nor does its mediocre movement and dip in velocity from ~95 mph to 93/94 last year.
Whitlock does carry some of the best extension in the game, though, which allows him to get more out of that sinker than the usually low-to-mid 90s heater, and amplifies the effectiveness of his secondaries as batters have less time to react to their aggressive movement. Rhythm is truly what Whitlock needs most at the moment, and it pains me that I feel the Red Sox will not give him the security of a #5 spot out of camp. It’s possible Whitlock soars and forces Houck (or Koufax forbid, Crawford) to the pen, but we’ll likely have to wait for an opportunity to arise elsewhere before Whitlock gets another shot. When that does happen, we can only hope he’s given a long enough leash to find that rhythm of his secondaries while spotting sinkers well enough to turn into a pitcher reminiscent of the peak Cleveland Guardian days, destroying batters with two 20%+ SwStr pitches and a “good enough” fastball.
94. Lance Lynn (STL, RHP)
Lynn is simple. He’s fine against LHB with a four-seamer, cutter, and changeup mix that doesn’t make us swoon, but it generally survives and that’s far better than many other starters outside the Top 50, and even some inside it. If you’re familiar with Lynn, you know it’s all about the four-seamer and let’s talk about that thing, specifically against right-handers.
He’s throwing the heater 1.5 ticks slower with a steeper VAA and more cut action and it’s killing him. He still misses an exceptional number of bats with it – 20% SwStr rate with the precision of keeping it just above the zone – but when it misses his spot inside the zone, batters are punishing it far more than they used to. 2021 featured a sub 30% ICR for his heater, leading to a magnificent 2.69 ERA and 1.07 WHIP campaign that even came with stumbles out of the gate. The number grew in 2022, but it ballooned in 2023 to 46%, which can’t happen for a pitch that earned strikes over 70% of the time. The gamble of throwing strikes didn’t pay off, leading to more harm than help, and the real difference is that the velo is down to 92.5 instead of 94+ while the pitch shape has made it easier to pummel inside the zone.
We can talk about his cutter and sinker all we want, or even the slider, change, and curve that constantly fail to earn enough strikes, but the heart and soul of Lynn is a heater that incessantly bullies batters upstairs without the massive risk when he misses his spot. With a degrading four-seamer and not much else to lean on, I can’t get behind Lynn for 2024. There’s more to change than approach or mentality, sadly, and it’ll likely get worse before it gets better.
95. Kyle Harrison (SFG, LHP)
I’m terrified. Harrison’s four-seamer has some great attributes, including an elite VAA with great extension that makes his 94 mph heater perform exceptionally well when elevated properly – 55% hiLoc against RHBs led to a 14% SwStr against them and there’s still room to grow. The pitch fares far differently against LHBs, though, with an astonishing 4% SwStr as he featured the pitch arm-side a bit too much while not nailing his spots around the zone nearly as well.
That can get better, right? Maybe, though his mechanics suggest a slinging southpaw and y’all know how I don’t like those. Harrison comes across as more of a “thrower” who is battling his mechanics rather than the batter in the majority of at-bats. This makes it tough for me to expect massive growth in his second season. Sure, he’ll have those games like the Reds start (and he didn’t even locate that well there), but he has Cherry Bomb written all over himself given the volatility of each individual at-bat.
There are other offerings here, and there’s a chance there’s development in his curve or change or even a brand new offering that allows him to stay ahead of batters. Sadly, that hook isn’t impressive enough to be a proper complement to the heater and that changeup is as rough as it gets. A pick in Harrison is believing the four-seamer will take another step forward this year, including its polish around the zone, and I’m not ready to do that.
Tier 13 – The Only IL Stashes To Consider
I’m not one to do IL stashes at all, but if you have IL spots and unlimited moves, you have nothing to lose. Shallower situations, I’d tell you it’s not worth it.
96. Jacob deGrom (TEX, RHP)
He’s the best pitcher on the planet. Seriously. His command is fantastic, even if it’s mostly just four-seamers and sliders, but both pitches are the best in class and are spotted brilliantly to make the start feel like it should be a historic one. It’s unclear when deGrom returns, though he’s worth the IL stash simply for the clear swing in your favor if he’s able to return before the season’s end. But how good will he be when he returns? Even if it’s not the far-and-away SP #1 as he was before, there’s so much room before “not worth it” that we shouldn’t be asking that question.
97. Max Scherzer (TEX, RHP)
It’s four-seamer/slider with a sprinkle of changeups against RHB, four-seamer/cutter/change/curve against LHB, and it’s getting worse each year. The changeup used to be a major nullifier against LHBs pre-2020 and has since struggled to earn the same whiffs, though it still mitigates hard contact well as it fights with a 60% strike rate. His slider took a massive hit last season, falling from its standard 26%+ SwStr rates against right-handers to a mortal 19% in 2023, with far higher ICR as well. It may have been a product of batters jumping on the pitch earlier in counts (21% Early Ball In Play rate is awfully high), as the pitch’s attributes and locations were in line with career norms.
I dig Scherzer’s cutter against LHB and his curve can be flipped in for strikes against both batters, though that four-seamer isn’t the destroyer of worlds it used to be. An 11% SwStr to RHB in both 2022 & 2023 after a history of 14%+ rates (18% in 2018!) is a huge part of Scherzer’s degradation process, while it still allows too many home runs.
With Scherzer now missing half of the season recovering from back surgery, he’s already going to fall to the end of drafts as an IL stash. I have no problem drafting him – he should help your team when he does return – though keep in mind that there is a lower and lower floor every year with the soon-to-be 40-year-old Scherzer. You may get two months of top-of-the-line production as he lays it all out of the field, but without the fastball and slider of old, he’s not the same guy.
98. Drew Rasmussen (TBR, RHP)
Rasmussen didn’t undergo TJS in favor of a hybrid internal brace that will allow him to return sooner than a traditional TJS procedure. However, it still speaks to a mid-season return, and you can expect many to stash him coming out of drafts. His cutter is supreme with stellar marks across the board, and he sports a rising heater with exceptional cut that destroys left-handers and a slider that looks destined to rack up whiffs. He’ll likely get the “Tampa” treatment upon return, though, limiting him to just five frames or so for a fair number of starts. Be prepared for it if you elect to tuck him away for months.
99. Robbie Ray (SFG, LHP)
We don’t expect Ray back until July at the earliest after undergoing TJS in early May 2023. I’d be a little cautious of his ability when he comes back given Ray’s breakout came when he finally learned how to throw his fastball inside the zone after years of struggles. The last element to return from TJS isn’t velocity but command, which could mean your season-long investment as an IL stash may be fruitless for another few weeks even after he returns.
100. Clayton Kershaw (LAD, LHP)
NICK, HE’S NOT ON THE DODGERS. Pfffft, he’s gonna sign with them in like June or something and don’t act like you think otherwise. I’m fine stashing Kershaw at the end of your drafts if you want, but I guarantee you there will be a time during the year you’re going to need that IL spot and drop Kershaw. Don’t forget – the Dodgers will likely limit him in his first start back and you won’t even want that start after the long wait, making an even harder situation of “do I hold for the next start or drop him?” after holding him for months while he repairs his shoulder. I’d rather take a flier there instead.