This division is loaded with superstars and will be fun for baseball fans to watch in 2023.
Last season both the Braves and Mets won 101 games and were among the best teams in baseball – and neither of them were the NL East team that advanced the farthest – as the Phillies slipped into the playoffs and made a run to the World Series behind a red-hot Bryce Harper.
The Braves will be tough to beat this year and feature a formidable top-to-bottom lineup, but after a record-breaking spending spree during the offseason in Queens, can the Mets overtake Atlanta? And don’t forget about the Phillies. They’ll be dealing with the absence of Harper, but still have plenty of talent on their roster.
You can make the argument that the Braves, Mets, or Phillies could again win the division (and the World Series) this year, while the Marlins and Nationals just hope for some improvement from last season. Miami finished 69-93 and could be better this year behind a strong pitching staff and the addition of free agents Luis Arraez, Jean Segura, and a healthy Jazz Chisholm Jr.
The Nationals finished with a putrid 55-107 record last season and will most likely occupy the cellar again this year. The 2019 World Series seems like a long time ago for a team that is now in full rebuild mode.
2022 Record: 101-61 (.623 W%)
Notable Roster Changes
Additions: Sean Murphy, Joe Jiménez, Nick Anderson, Jordan Luplow, Lucas Luetge
Subtractions: Dansby Swanson, Adam Duvall, Kenley Jansen, Luke Jackson
Projected Lineup
Projected Bench
The Braves have arguably the best top-to-bottom lineup in baseball featuring a mix of steady veterans and exciting young players, and could easily break the 100-win mark again this year.
Ronald Acuña Jr. is at the top of the lineup and played 119 games for the Braves last season after returning in late April from an ACL injury. In 467 at-bats, Acuña hit .266/.351/.413 with 15 home runs and 50 RBI. He stole 29 bases but perhaps as a lingering effect from the injury, also led the National League with 11 times caught stealing. Acuña will be fully healthy in 2023 so the speed and steals should return.
Pitchers next have to deal with Matt Olson and Austin Riley, the Braves’ sluggers who each cleared 30+ home runs in 2022. Riley was a first-time All-Star and finished sixth in MVP voting last season after hitting .273/.349/.528 with 38 home runs and 93 RBI. It doesn’t really get easier for opponents after that.
Michael Harris II exploded on the scene last year as a rookie, falling one home run short of a 20/20 season while playing excellent defense in center field. He finished fourth in fielding percentage (.992) among NL center fielders. Second baseman Ozzie Albies hit 30 home runs in 2021 but missed time last season with multiple injuries. He is healthy again and is predicting big things in 2023.
Projected Rotation
Projected Bullpen
When you finish second in Rookie of the Year voting behind your own teammate, that’s disappointing personally, but a good problem for a team to have. And that’s exactly what happened to Spencer Strider last season. After beginning the season as a reliever, Strider and his 98 MPH fastball were moved into the starting lineup and it paid off for Atlanta. Strider finished the year with an 11-5 record and a pristine 2.67 ERA and 0.96 WHIP while eclipsing the 200-strikeout mark.
The Braves’ other top starters are Max Fried and Kyle Wright. Fried is a certified ace after four solid seasons in a row, in three of which he won 14+ games. In 2022, Fried went 14-7 with a 2.48 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and struck out 170 batters in 185.1 innings. He’s also an excellent fielder, winning three straight Gold Gloves at his position. Wright went 21-5 with a 3.19 ERA and led the majors in wins last season.
The only question mark is with Charlie Morton, who at 39 years old, won nine games last year but may be losing the battle with Father Time. Atlanta’s top prospect Jared Shuster could win the fifth rotation spot. He throws a fastball, changeup, and slider and is a consistent strike-thrower who only had 2.5 walks per nine innings last season.
In the bullpen, Raisel Iglesias steps into the closer role after Kenley Jansen left in free agency. Iglesias had 17 saves last season but mostly served in setup duty after coming to Atlanta via trade. In setup duty this season will be A.J. Minter, one of the best setup arms in baseball, and Joe Jiménez, added in the offseason from Detroit. Minter had a 2.06 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and averaged 12.1 SO/9 last season.
Storylines to Follow
Can Vaughn Grissom step into the starting shortstop role vacated by Dansby Swanson? Grissom was called up last season and filled in at second base while Albies was injured. He got off to a fast start at the plate last season, hitting .291 in 41 games, but questions about his defensive ability have raised doubts about the move over to shortstop. Grissom did work extensively with Braves third base coach Ron Washington in the offseason, but this remains the big question for the team as we move into the 2023 season.
2022 Record: 101-61 (.623 W%)
Notable Roster Changes
Additions: Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga, Brooks Raley, José Quintana, David Robertson, Carlos Correa (almost – sorry Mets fans)
Subtractions: Chris Bassitt, Seth Lugo, Trevor May, Trevor Williams, Taijuan Walker, Jacob deGrom, Mychal Givens
Projected Lineup
Projected Bench
The Mets generated fresh content all winter for baseball writers as they signed marquee free agents left and right, and made by far the most noise of any team in the offseason. At one point the team had committed over $800 million in contracts, but that dropped to a “mere” $500 million after Carlos Correa returned to the Twins. Their projected payroll is still expected to be over $330 million in 2023.
Brandon Nimmo was one of the big offseason signings (8 years & $162 million) and will lead off at the top of the Mets lineup. He has eclipsed a .400 OBP three times in his career and went .274/.367/.433 in 2022 with 16 home runs and 64 RBI. Starling Marte and Francisco Lindor will continue to give the Mets a combination of speed on the basepaths and decent power from the two and three spots in the lineup. Marte hit 16 home runs and had 18 steals in 2022, while Lindor bounced back from his subpar first season with the Mets in 2021 to hit 26 home runs with 107 RBI and 16 steals.
Look for Pete Alonso to again threaten the 35-40 home run mark as the Polar Bear will continue to provide power from the cleanup spot after hitting 40 home runs with a .271/.352/.518 slash line in 685 AB in 2022. The Mets also feature some additional power with Daniel Vogelbach who hit 18 home runs last season, and Eduardo Escobar, who went yard 20 times in 2022.
Projected Rotation
Projected Bullpen
Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer give the Mets over 400 career wins and six Cy Young Awards at the top of their rotation. There will no doubt be in Cooperstown someday, but will they hold up for another long season pitching in high-pressure spots?
Scherzer has missed significant time due to injuries in the last two seasons and will turn 39 this season. Verlander returned after missing 2021 and put in a historically great year but is now 40 years old and is unlikely to reach the heights of 2022. Granted even having Verlander and Scherzer as part-time starters is better than what most teams have.
Behind them is another high-profile free agent signing: Kodai Senga, who the Mets signed to a 5-year, $75 million deal to play in the MLB. The 30-year-old Senga went 87-44 with a 2.59 ERA during his career in Japan and possesses one of the most unique pitches in baseball with the ghost fork. Rounding out the rotation are steady veteran Carlos Carrasco, and David Peterson, who went a respectable 7-5 with a 3.83 ERA last season.
Storylines to Follow
Edwin Diaz‘s injury during the World Baseball Classic was devastating news for Mets fans and the Mets franchise alike and threw a wrench into the team’s World Series aspirations. Diaz’s impact on the team can’t be overstated and now leaves the bullpen less formidable than last year, when he was a lock in the 9th inning. Expect David Robertson to step into the closer role with Adam Ottavino providing support as well. Also, the Mets may end up looking outside to bring a proven veteran such as Zach Britton, Ken Giles, or Corey Knebel. This will be one of the main storylines for the entire league as the season begins.
2022 Season: 87-75 (.537 W%)
Notable Roster Changes
Additions: Trea Turner, Taijuan Walker, Josh Harrison, Jake Cave, Craig Kimbrel, Gregory Soto
Subtractions: David Robertson, Zach Eflin, Jean Segura, Kyle Gibson, Noah Syndergaard
Projected Lineup
Projected Bench
The National League Champions are looking to repeat their surprise run to the pennant last season, but they’ll have to do it without the superstar that got them there – Bryce Harper. Harper was legendary in the playoffs last year hitting six home runs with a .349/.414/.746 while winning the NLCS, but is expected to be out until the All-Star break as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. The Phillies’ lineup that hit .253 and had a .739 OPS last season (both marks fifth in the NL) will have to weather the storm until Harper can return.
The signing of Trea Turner should help in Harper’s absence. The speedy Turner will lead off for the Phillies and slot in at shortstop. In 2022, he hit 21 home runs with 100 RBI and 27 steals and is one of the best players in all of baseball.
Providing protection behind Turner is Kyle Schwarber, who hit the most home runs by anyone not named Aaron Judge last season (46) and Rhys Hoskins who hit 30 home runs in 2022. The Phillies also still have J.T. Realmuto at catcher who hit .276 and joined the 20/20 club in 2022 with 22 home runs and 21 stolen bases.
Projected Rotation
Projected Bullpen
Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler give the Phillies stability at the top of their rotation and will lead the staff again in 2023. Nola had an unlucky 2022 as he finished with a losing record (11-13) but also had a 3.25 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and a National League-leading 1.3 BB/9. He finished fourth in NL Cy Young Award voting. Wheeler’s traditional numbers were even better with a 12-7 record, 2.82 ERA, and 1.04 WHIP.
Free-agent newcomer Taijuan Walker slots in as the third starter after coming over from the Mets. He went 12-5 with a 3.49 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. Rounding out the rotation is Ranger Suárez, who has shown promise but has been inconsistent the last two seasons, and battling for the fifth spot is Bailey Falter.
There are still many dominoes to fall in the Philadelphia bullpen. The Phillies primarily used Seranthony Domínguez and David Robertson as closers last season but lost Robertson to the Mets in free agency. To fill the gap, they signed Craig Kimbrel, who is seventh all-time with 394 career saves and spent last season with the Dodgers. Kimbrel and Domínguez are probably the top two options to close in 2023, but José Alvarado and Gregory Soto will also figure into the picture.
Storylines to Follow
Harper’s recovery is the top story, but another injury will also be a storyline for Phillies fans to watch. The team’s top prospect, 19-year-old Andrew Painter, had an electric spring debut throwing fastballs that topped out at 99 MPH. Not long after, he reported pain in his elbow and was shut down for four weeks after being diagnosed with a right proximal ulnar collateral ligament sprain.
If healthy, he may have won the fifth rotation spot out of spring training, but that will now likely go to Falter. The Phillies will be cautious with the young ace’s recovery, but expect Painter to get the call to the bigs sometime in 2023.
2022 Record: 69-93 (.426 W%)
Notable Roster Changes
Additions: Luis Arraez, Jean Segura, Yuli Gurriel, José Iglesias, Johnny Cueto, Matt Barnes, A.J. Puk, JT Chargois
Subtractions: Brian Anderson, Nick Neidert, Willians Astudillo, Pablo López, Richard Bleier, JJ Bleday
Projected Lineup
Projected Bench
To put it simply, the Marlins’ offense was terrible last season. Miami was last in the National League in runs produced last season averaging a mere 3.62 runs per game, and the team’s batting average of .230 was tied for second-worst.
They hope those marks will improve with the signings of Luis Arraez and Jean Segura, two veterans who can hit and get on base. Segura is a career .285 hitter whose best days are probably behind him but managed a .277/.336/.387 line last season with the Phillies. Arraez arrived via trade from Minnesota and won the batting title last season with a .316 average. He doesn’t hit for much power but owns a lifetime .314 batting average and .374 OBP.
The Marlins’ improvement will also hinge upon the health of Jazz Chisholm Jr. and the consistency of Jorge Soler. Chisholm is one of the most exciting young players in baseball and was having a great season last year before being injured. In his career, his 162-game average numbers are 27 home runs, 82 RBI, and 29 steals. Chisholm is moving to the outfield to make room for Arraez at second base.
Soler has immense power but is best described as a streaky hitter. He blasted 48 home runs back in 2019 with the Royals and caught fire with the Braves in 2021 hitting 14 home runs in 55 games and helping the team win the World Series. He will never hit for a high average but if Soler can stay healthy and hit in the .240 to .250 range, he could clear 30 to 35 home runs.
Jon Berti led the major leagues in steals last season with 41 but finds himself on the bench after the additions of Arraez and Segura. He will be in a utility role this season after starting games at 2B, 3B, SS, and OF last year.
Projected Rotation
Projected Bullpen
The highlight of the Marlins franchise is the reigning NL Cy Young Award Winner, Sandy Alcantara. Alcantara was a workhorse in 2022, leading the majors in innings pitched with 228.2 and finishing 14-9 with a 2.28 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. He struck out 207 batters and pitched six complete games.
Behind Alcantara are Jesús Luzardo, who has shown flashes of future stardom and had a 3.32 ERA in 2022, and veteran Johnny Cueto, who was signed in the offseason. Cueto was rejuvenated last season in Chicago finishing 2022 with a 3.35 ERA and an 8-10 record. Their number four starter is Trevor Rogers, covered in more detail below, and the last starter is young right-hander Edward Cabrera. Cabrera started 14 games for the Fins in 2022 and went 6-4 on the year.
Storylines to Follow
Who is the Marlins’ closer in 2023? This is a question that is still up in the air with four pitchers potentially filling the role. Dylan Floro, Tanner Scott, Matt Barnes, and A.J. Puk will likely all save games for Miami.
Another situation to keep an eye on is the continued development of lefty Trevor Rogers. Rogers was an All-Star in 2021 and finished second in Rookie of the Year voting that year after finishing with a 7-8 record and a 2.64 ERA. However, he struggled to a 4-11 record in 2022. If he can repeat his 2021 season, the Marlins would have a solid starting rotation.
2022 Record: 55-107 (.340 W%)
Notable Roster Changes
Additions: Corey Dickerson, Jeimer Candelario, Dominic Smith, Stone Garrett, Trevor Williams, Chad Kuhl, Alex Colomé
Subtractions: César Hernández, Luke Voit, Nelson Cruz, Joe Ross, Aníbal Sánchez, Erick Fedde, Maikel Franco
Projected Lineup
Projected Bench
The Nationals reached the top of the baseball world with their World Series victory in 2019 but since that time have completely stripped down their team, and after winning only 65 games in 2021, they cratered to a franchise-worst 55-107 record last season. There’s not a lot to like here for Nationals fans, especially after the trade of Juan Soto to the Padres during last season’s trade deadline.
One bright spot in 2022 was Joey Meneses, who debuted with the Nationals last season at age 30. He hit 13 home runs and went .324/.367/.563 in 56 games and has been raking in the WBC. Washington hopes this momentum continues into the regular season. In the middle of the lineup is Jeimer Candelario, coming over from Detroit and slotting in at third base. He has decent power but hit only .217 for the Tigers last season.
Behind Candelario is catcher Keibert Ruiz, who recently signed an eight-year extension with the team. He was originally acquired in the trade that sent Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers in 2021. Ruiz hit for a decent average for a catcher with a line of .250/.313/.360 and had seven home runs last season.
CJ Abrams is projected to hit seventh for the Nats and was once ranked as the number two prospect in the Padres system. He came over in the Juan Soto trade and possesses elite speed. He struggled at times last season as a rookie and hit .258 in 44 games in Washington.
Projected Rotation
Projected Bullpen
The Nationals rotation features some young arms with promise in Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore. Gore, like Abrams, was once a top prospect in San Diego’s system and arrived in Washington in the Soto trade. He went 4-4 with a 4.50 ERA in the first half of the season last year before his year ended with an elbow injury. He had some nice starts with the Padres, including back-to-back outings with nine strikeouts and 10 strikeouts. He will be debuting with the Nationals this season.
Gray went 7-10 with a 5.03 ERA in 2022 but added a cutter to his pitch mix in the offseason. The rest of the rotation includes Patrick Corbin, a two-time All-Star during his time with the Diamondbacks but who has led the league in losses the last two seasons, as well as Trevor Williams and Chad Kuhl.
Kyle Finnegan returns as the Nationals’ closer after saving 11 games last season with a 3.51 ERA. Carl Edwards Jr. and Hunter Harvey are slotted in for setup duty. The Nationals also added Alex Colomé to the mix, after he spent 2022 with the Rockies. Colomé has plenty of experience saving games in the past if the need arises, having saved 47 games for the Rays in 2017 and 30 for the White Sox in 2019.
Storylines to Follow
How will Washington’s G-Men Gore and Gray continue to develop in 2023? If they make improvements and can bring some consistency to the Nationals rotation, then the team may be better than they were in 2022. If not, it could be a long year in the nation’s capital.
Featured image by Michael Packard (@CollectingPack on Twitter) / Photography by John Adams, Dustin Bradford, David J. Griffin & Joe Robbins / Icon Sportswire