The fantasy baseball season is never truly over for dynasty managers. Prospect value is constantly changing, and perhaps, no more than during the Arizona Fall League (AFL). The AFL gives prospects the chance to get additional at-bats under their belt and work on some adjustments in real game action. In a time where baseball fanatics are starved for content, one highlight reel home run could drastically alter the perception of a player across dynasty leagues. Keep reading to check out the 2024 preview of the Arizona Fall League with headline names, players who need to perform, and breakout picks.
Glendale Desert Dogs
Most Notable Prospect: Colson Montgomery – CWS
In the AFL preview from last season, Colson Montgomery was the most notable hitting prospect on the Glendale Desert Dogs. Here we are in 2024, with Montgomery remaining the most notable prospect this year. Montgomery has remained near the top of prospect lists since being drafted in the first round back in 2021. Many around the industry expected Montgomery to make his Major League debut this past season. Expectations were high this season, but things did not work out as many hoped.
Montgomery appeared in 130 games this year all of which came in Triple-A. Despite the lack of talent at the Major League level, Montgomery’s numbers did not incentivize the White Sox to promote him. He hit 18 homers with a .214 average and the lowest wRC+ of his career. Low batting averages have become a theme throughout Montgomery’s career as his overly patient approach continues to get him in trouble. Despite the down season, there is still plenty to like in Montgomery’s profile. His 6’3″ frame has plenty of raw pop, he walks at an above-average rate, he has a great feel for pulling the ball, and he hits a lot of line drives. The stink around the White Sox has caused some to sour on Montgomery’s future outlook, but he remains the most prevalent prospect on Glendale’s roster.
Prospect with the most to prove: Edwin Arroyo– CIN
The trade sending Luis Castillo to Seattle was a true blockbuster. The headline name returning to Cincinnati was Noelvi Marte, but many throughout the dynasty community were equally infatuated with Edwin Arroyo. A then 18-year-old shortstop, Arroyo was dominating Low-A in his first taste of full-season baseball. There were some scouts who even thought Arroyo could end up being the best player returning to Cincinnati. Arroyo struggled in 29 games with the Reds’ organization but expectations were still high entering 2023.
2023 got off to a dreadful start for Arroyo. At the end of June, he was slugging under .400 and batting under .240. The strikeouts were up, his walk rate was way down, and Arroyo slid quickly down prospect rankings. However, Arroyo bounced back nicely during the final three months of the season. He slashed .267/.352/.473 while making significant strides in his plate discipline and contact skills. Just as hope began to rise again this past winter, Arroyo injured his shoulder during Spring Training and was forced to miss the entirety of 2024. Now 21, Arroyo has played just four games above High-A and has posted inconsistent results throughout his professional career. Not only do dynasty managers need to see Arroyo look healthy in the AFL, but a strong offensive performance would do wonders for calming any concerns over his future outlook.
Prospect Breakout Prediction: Grant Taylor– CWS
Grant Taylor was well on his way to a breakout season before a lat injury prematurely ended his 2024. After being selected 51st overall in last year’s draft, Taylor pitched just 19.1 innings this season. Although the sample size was small, Taylor’s stuff looked electric. His four-seam fastball sat in the upper 90s, and he blew it right past hitters with ease. He mixes a cutter, slider, and curveball in as well to keep opposing batters off balance. His top-tier stuff led to a 44.2% strikeout rate and a 2.33 ERA.
If Taylor did not get injured, we could be referring to Taylor as one of the premier pitching prospects in baseball. The expectation here is that Taylor’s stuff shines against the relatively inexperienced hitters in the Complex League grabbing the attention of dynasty managers everywhere. Rostering prospects in dynasty is all about maximizing value. Taylor has the stuff to fly up boards even if he only makes a few starts in the Arizona Fall League. Proving he is healthy will do wonders for his value. Get in on him now before the rest of the hype around Taylor returns.
Mesa Solar Sox
Most Notable Prospect: Xavier Isaac– TBR
Prior to the season, I identified three prospects I believed were primed to bust in 2024. These were guys that the market was incredibly high on optimizing the value dynasty managers could recoup by trading these three players away. Xavier Isaac was one of these guys and boy did that pick look rough early on. Isaac dominated High-A this season crushing 15 homers, stealing 14 bases, and batting .287. For the final 31 games of the year, Isaac was promoted to Double-A, where his numbers looked drastically different. In those 31 games, Isaac slashed .211/.346/.349. The most glaring issue in Dobule-A was a 40.6% strikeout rate.
Isaac remains the most notable prospect on Mesa’s roster despite his struggles to end the season. His power is effortless, but strikeouts are becoming a major concern for Isaac’s future outlook. He has posted poor contact rates throughout his professional career and the problem seems to be getting worse instead of better. Additional concern stems from his righty/lefty splits. Isaac slashed .236/.342/.321 against lefties this season. Just one of his 18 homers came against a lefty this season. While I still believe Isaac to be an easy sell-high in dynasty the AFL gives him a chance to make adjustments and help calm any concerns dynasty managers may have over his hit tool. To be fair at just 20 years old, Isaac owns a 147 wRC+ through his first 889 professional plate appearances.
Prospect with the most to prove: Denzel Clarke– OAK
Denzel Clarke has been in Oakland’s system since the team took him in the fourth round of the 2021 draft. Standing at 6’4″, 220 pounds, Clarke’s raw athleticism and projectability have always stood out. As is the case with most players referred to as “athletes”, Clarke has battled inconsistencies throughout his professional career. He has shown flashes of brilliance tapping into his massive power and has stolen bases at a high rate. He has also struggled to limit the strikeouts while also struggling to stay on the field throughout an entire season. This year, the first half was rough for Clarke who was slashing batting .188 with a 40.9% strikeout rate on June 11. However, from June 12 forward, Clarke was incredible. He slashed .37/.387/.524 the rest of the way. Even more notable was his strikeout rate dipping down to 23.5% during that span.
Now 24, 2025 will likely mark a make-or-break season for Clarke. The question dynasty managers are asking is which Clarke is the real Clarke? Are the adjustments he made down the stretch legit, or is this just another flash in the pan? A strong performance in the AFL could do wonders for Clarke’s dynasty value. If Clarke succeeds, pairing his AFL with the second half will be easy to point to a true 2025 breakout candidate. If the strikeout rate creeps back up, Clarke could be a forgotten asset in dynasty leagues.
Prospect Breakout Prediction: Mac Horvath– TBR
The headline of the return for Zach Eflin at the trade deadline was Mac Horvath. Horvath was the Orioles’ second-round pick in last year’s draft and was putting up decent numbers in High-A prior to the trade. Post trade, Horvath struggled slashing just .221/.291/.381 in 31 games with the Rays. Early struggles with a new team are not uncommon. Players press to impress their new team, but Horvath is too talented to see these struggles continue.
Horvath fits the mold of a hitter the Rays have looked to acquire in recent years. He is not the biggest guy, but he has an excellent feel for pulling the baseball in the air which leads to more home runs than his batted ball data suggests. Horvath also has plus speed and plate discipline that should provide a stable floor for his future value. Additional at-bats in the AFL should allow Horvath to relax and play baseball where his skillset will be on full display.
Peoria Javelinas
Most Notable Prospect: Leodalis De Vries– SDP
There may not be a more stacked team than Peoria this fall. There are several big-time names that could have been picked for this section. Cole Young, Colt Emerson, Ethan Salas, and Brock Wilken are all top prospects on this AFL roster. However, the most attention could go to Leodalis De Vries. De Vries was the top international free agent signing from this past year and has certainly lived up to the hype. Following a similar path as Salas, the Padres assigned De Vries right to full-season ball. After a slow start, De Vries really turned things on at the dish. In his final 33 games, De Vries slashed .280/.407/.606 despite being over four years younger than the average player in Low-A.
Rarely do we see a player as young as De Vries find instant success in professional baseball. The adjustments he made throughout the season prove that he has what it takes to become one of the game’s greats. De Vries has the skillset to be a five-category contributor which is why he ranks so highly in my top-100 prospect list. Finding success in the AFL will take the De Vries hype to the next level. All eyes will be on him this fall.
Prospect with the most to prove: Luis Lara– MIL
Luis Lara is another prospect that I wrote about prior to the 2024 season. In fact, I actually debated his dynasty value with fellow Pitcher List writer Martin Sekulski in one of my favorite articles from this off-season. Lara was a popular breakout pick entering 2024, but the justification for citing him as a top-100 prospect seemed off. Yes, his contact skills are strong and he has plus speed that profiles as a long-term skill. However, prior to this season Lara had hit just four professional home runs. His 5’8″ profile lacks the power projection usually required and any dip to his BABIP could easily result in a disappointing season. This is exactly what happened in 2024 as Lara hit just .245 with four homers in High-A.
Now Lara is heading to the AFL where he will try to recapture the exciement that lured dynasty managers in prior to this season. Base stealing is an obvious strength in his profile, but he will need to prove he is more than just a base stealer this fall. Seeing an increase in power would be an obvious way to prove himself, but even just seeing his batting average rebound would be a positive sign.
Prospect Breakout Prediction: Drake Baldwin– ATL
The Arizona Fall League is a small sample of plate appearances. Swing adjustments, mechanical changes, and approach shifts can all be significant data points. However, sometimes shifting a player’s dynasty value is just about making people pay attention. Jakob Marsee was one of the AFL darlings last off-season, but his numbers were already excellent throughout 2023. His strong AFL just made more dynasty managers look him up and realize that he is worth rostering. The same is going to be true for Drake Baldwin in 2024. Overshadowed by Ethan Salas‘ name value, Baldwin is going to be the sought-after catcher following the 2024 AFL.
The reality is that Baldwin already put together his breakout season. Split between Double-A and Triple-A, Baldwin crushed 16 homers while batting .276. His numbers improved throughout the season as his walk rate jumped to 15.6% in Triple-A. He slugged .484 across 72 games in Triple-A. He whiffed under 23% of the time while barreling the ball up in 7.2% of his plate appearances. Following Sean Murphy’s struggles, the Braves no longer seem to have a long-term option at catcher. A strong AFL could thrust Baldwin right into the 2025 conversation. The breakout already happened, but dynasty managers should get in now before Baldwin crushes it in the AFL.
Salt River Rafters
Most Notable Prospect: Tommy Troy– ARI
Despite a down 2024 season, Tommy Troy still headlines the list of players on the Salt River Rafters. The Diamondbacks took Troy out of Stanford 12th overall in last year’s draft with expectations that he could move quickly through their system. Unfortunately, that has not worked out as well as they hoped. Injuries limited Troy to just 72 games this season, and the results were disappointing. While in High-A, Troy hit just five home runs while batting .227. His power profile seemed disappointing and he struggled to make contact consistently which is alarming for a college hitter.
The transition to professional baseball is never easy. However, you expect more from college hitters than what Troy provided this past season. He did undergo foot surgery prior to the season and suffered a hamstring injury, making it difficult for him to ever truly settle in. A full off-season of health could be what Troy needs to get back on track. For those who own Troy in dynasty, it would be nice to see some solid production in the AFL to provide confidence in his 2025 outlook.
Prospect with the most to prove: Kristian Robinson– ARI
Kristian Robinson has had a tumultuous professional career. Robinson set the league on fire with his outstanding production back in 2019. He had plus power and plus speed with all of the tools dynasty managers seek in an elite prospect. The pandemic, Visa issues, and run-ins with the law kept Robinson off the professional field from 2020-2022. He returned to Arizona’s organization in 2023 and put up solid numbers across four levels. The strikeout rate was alarming but hitting 14 homers with 23 steals in just 65 games after not appearing for three seasons still got dynasty managers excited.
Unfortunately, Robinson regressed in a major way this past season. He played 110 games in Double-A batting just .214 with 11 homers and 10 steals. His strikeout rate was 35.8% and his 100 wRC+ was the lowest of his career. Robinson turns 24 in June and is not showing any signs he will be an impactful dynasty asset anytime soon. To retain any sort of value, Robinson will have to show significant adjustments to his approach at the plate in the AFL. Robinson has all the talent in the world, but the appeal of his athleticism is fading.
Prospect Breakout Prediction: Gino Groover– ARI
An Arizona sweep! Gino Groover marks the third D-Backs player included in this list and is definitely the player dynasty managers should be most excited about. Groover was the 48th overall pick in the 2023 draft and could be Arizona’s third baseman of the future. Injuries limited Groover to just 61 games this season, but his on-field production was superb. He hit 10 homers, stole four bases, and hit .340 in his final 13 games in Double-A. Groover has plus contact skills, plus plate discipline, and the power to be an impactful fantasy asset. If you want to read a little more about my love for Groover you can check out my final top-100 update of the season.
Groover’s 2024 stats should have dynasty managers excited enough. In a similar fashion to Drake Baldwin, a strong AFL would just help to grab the attention of dynasty managers. Groover has all of the skills to succeed making now your last chance to get in on him before his dynasty value skyrockets.
Scottsdale Scorpions
Most Notable Prospect: Bryce Eldridge– SFG
All it takes is one look at Bryce Eldridge to dream about the potential in his bat. Eldridge stands at 6’7″ with raw power that rivals any player in professional baseball. Soon after drafting him 16th overall, the Giants decided to move Eldridge off of the mound and let him focus on hitting full-time. This certainly has seemed to be the right move. After starting the season in Low-A, Eldridge climbed his way all the way to Triple-A. He crushed 23 home runs and finished the season with a 137 wRC+.
Eldridge’s dynasty outlook has two primary concerns. The first is definitely Eldridge’s strikeout rate. This season, he struck out 25.4% of the time, but that number jumped to 31.4% in a small Triple-A sample size. The other concern is his ability to hit left-handed pitchers. He hit just .211/.272/.316 against lefties this season. Playing in the AFL gives Eldridge a chance to work on both of these concerns. At just 19 years old, Eldridge has easy 30+ home run potential and could open 2025 as the Giants’ starting first baseman.
Prospect with the most to prove: Jett Williams– NYM
2024 was a year to forget for Jett Williams. Expectations for Williams could not have been any higher following his excellent 2023 season. Appearing at three different levels, Williams hit 13 home runs, stole 45 bases, and walked over 19% of the time. Williams soared up prospect ranking lists, even entering the top ten on several publications. This jump was fueled by a brief power outburst while in High-A that was uncharacteristic for the majority of Williams’ professional career. Skeptical, Williams was also included in my prospect battle with Martin Sekulski where the opinion was voiced that the dynasty community was far too high on Williams.
Williams struggled out of the gate and wound up needing wrist surgery in early June that cost him a large portion of 2024. All told, Williams appeared in just 33 games slashing .215/.358/.298. and zero home runs. The wrist injury likely lingered throughout his time on the field and the Mets are sending him to the AFL to get additional at-bats under his belt after a lost season. Performing in the AFL is crucial for Williams and his dynasty value. First, it is important for Williams to simply look healthy. Second, Williams needs to prove he is more than just walks and stolen bases. The part of his 2023 season that excited dynasty managers was Williams hitting eight home runs in 161 plate appearances; a 30/600 pace. Outside of that stretch, Williams has just six homers in 562 plate appearances; a 7/600 pace. Williams needs to show off some power in the hitter-friendly AFL to help his dynasty stock rebound.
Prospect Breakout Prediction: Kendry Rojas- TOR
The Jays signed Kendry Rojas out of Cuba back in 2020, and he has yet to show up on many major prospect lists. He pitched well in his professoinal debut but saw his numbers regress with each promotion through the Jays’ system. Rojas started the 2024 season in High-A and struggled coming out of the bullpen in his first appearance. The Jays moved him back to the rotation after that but Rojas made just one start before landing on the IL.
Rojas was lights out after returning from the IL in June. In his final nine starts at High-A, Rojas posted a 2.16 ERA. He lasted at least six innings in six of those starts with an incredible 22.4% K:BB ratio. Rojas may not have “ace” upside, but he is certainly a name dynasty managers should know. His four-seam velocity has increased into the mid 90s while his slider profiles to be a plus pitch. With plus command, Rojas should find success in the AFL and offically declare himself relevant to the dynasty community.
Surprise Saguaros
Most Notable Prospect: Jac Caglianone– KC
The Royals’ first-round pick from this past season headlines the list of prospects on Surprise’s roster. Caglianone put up massive power numbers during his final two seasons at the University of Florida. Standing at 6’5″, his projection fits the build of your prototypical first-base prospect. The home runs are impressive, but underlying concerns over his hit tool could lead to struggles early in his professional career.
Caglianone appeared in 29 games at High-A this season. He slashed .241/.308/.388 with two home runs. His offensive numbers were underwhelming compared to other prospects like Cam Smith and Christian Moore, but the sample size is far too small for dynasty managers to worry. He should get a chance to continue adjusting to the pros in the AFL and remains one of the game’s top first base prospects.
Prospect with the most to prove: Chase DeLauter– CLE
Chase DeLauter is one of the hardest prospects to rank in all of Minor League baseball. When on the diamond, DeLauter has all of the tools dynasty managers look for. He has effortless power thanks to his 6’4″ frame. DeLauter has an excellent feel for pulling the ball and also is a line drive machine. He has great plate discipline, excellent contact skills, and is already in Triple-A.
Outside of an unorthodox swing, the biggest issue is durability. Since being drafted 16th overall DeLauter has appeared in just 96 games for the Guardians. The results in those 96 games have been excellent. He is slashing 317/.387/.517 with 13 home runs. Really, all dynasty managers want from DeLauter in the AFL is for him to stay healthy. There is not a ton for DeLauter to prove at the plate. This is an prospect who profiles to be an offensive force at the Major League level. However, one more injury and the Guardians may have to consider moving him out of the outfield and dynasty managers will start to question the true outlook of his future value.
Prospect Breakout Prediction: Alejandro Osuna- TEX
Since signing back in 2020, Alejandro Osuna has flown under the radar. Following a big 2022, Osuna started to gain some attention in the dynasty community, before a mediocre 2023 dampened the hype. Osuna’s numbers bounced back in a big way in 2024 and he could see his value sky-rocket following this year’s AFL.
The biggest knock on Osuna entering 2024 was that his future outlook was that of a fourth outfielder. Solid hit tool, good speed, but lacked the power to become an impactful bat. Well, splitting time between High-A and Double-A, Osuna made massive improvements to his power profile. He hit a career-high 18 homers while stealing 17 bases. His home run rate jumped significantly increasing his future ceiling. Osuna’s numbers really jumped once he got to Double-A where he slashed .306/.379/.523. Dynasty managers should fully expect this run of success to continue in the AFL and would be wise to get in on him now while the price is still low.