Welcome back to Buy & Sell, where this week’s theme is… more young outfielders and the rest are old!
BUY
10-team
Cole Carrigg (OF, Colorado Rockies)
Mother Teresa said it best “Never believe that a view Carrigg people can’t change the world (or at least your fantasy championship odds)”. I admit that in most deeper or even some shallow formats this may be too late, as his arrival came just in time for last week’s Sunday FAAB, but he’s still only 17% rostered on Yahoo, so it may not be too late. He actually attracted smaller bids than Braden Montgomery, but he may have the higher fantasy upside with his significant edge in stolen bases. While he was a less highly regarded prospect than Montgomery entering the year, Carrigg had a big breakout hitting .338 with 6 homers and an incredible 30 SB in 257 PA. In his first week in the majors, he’s not what we expected exactly, but we’re not complaining.
He’s hit .233 but with 3 home runs and a stolen base in 34 PA as he’s been playing every day, which is quite the accomplishment on a Rockies team that has a penchant for messing with playing time, especially for young players. It’s easy to assume the homers, which reached half his minor league homer total in JUST ONE WEEK, is a fluke, But, well, he clearly does have power, as he hit an impressive 110 MPH. He really doesn’t need much to be 10-team viable if he can come close to the stolen base pace from the minors (thought I’d expect it to be roughly half). But here’s where the intrigue comes in: Not only does Carrigg have 3 barrels with his 3 homers, he’s been hitting the ball in the air a bunch with over half of his contact being flyballs and the same amount being pulled. I also think his current 27% K% is higher than his strong contact% and elite 93% Z-Contact% (small sample alert!). In the end, especially playing half his games in Coors in the summer, there’s just a lot of ways for this to go right.
Alec Burleson (1B, St. Louis Cardinals)
Regardless of how strong you feel at first base, it’s time to get Burly. Yes, I know he’s probably rostered in most of your leagues, but that may not be a reason to, even in a 10-team, seek him out. Because he’s still not really thought of as an elite first baseman but rather a solid underrated regular who is playing up a bit, and I think he could very well finish as a top 8 first baseman. And hey, maybe he’ll even outproduce Vladdy. …I miss that being a statement that was remotely controversial.
You look at the surface and hey, things look good! Burleson’s hitting .283 with 13 homers, so he’s basically doing what he did last year but with more power, since he hit .290 with 21 homers last year. But really, he’s hit a whole new level. In his expected stats, he’s rocking a fantastic .296 xBA (95th percentile) and even more surprisingly, a truly elite .560 xSLG (97th percentile). That’s a huge jump from his current actual SLG% of .483… 77 points, to be exact. But how is he doing this? Well, while he still lacks gaudy raw power, he’s been making a lot more hard contact, as his HardHit% is up to 48% this year (85th) percentile, compared to last year’s league-average 43% HardHit%, which has resulted in more barrels, while only whiffing a bit more. And not only that, he’s also hitting more pulled flyballs than ever, with a plus 19% that’s much better than his below league-average 14% mark from last year. He’s also heating up now so the buy window is shrinking, as he has a stupendous .484 rolling xwOBA over his past 50 PA. Make an impressive offer now and let them think they’re selling high. And obviously if he is on your 10-team wire, stop reading this and add him now… then read it again.
Honorable Mention: Seiya Suzuki (OF, Chicago Cubs) – It seems my sell call from a few weeks back was at exactly the wrong time, as he’s been one of the hotter hitters on the team lately, hitting .333 with 3 home runs and seems the power is coming back, and it’s still early enough to “buy low”.
12-team
Braden Montgomery (OF, Chicago White Sox)
There is a fair case to say Braden should be valued higher than Carrigg, and given the fact I had bid on both in The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational (TGFBI) but bid higher on Montgomery, I’m wondering if, since I’m putting Carrigg as a 10-team play, if I done goofed. Well look, Montgomery does have more pedigree, being a higher-rated prospect heading into the season. He also impressed with an amazing and inspirational walk-off opposite field home run (highly recommended watching). But okay, it’s been 24 PA and he’s hit .217 with 1 HR and 0 SB, so now I have to defend vouching for him, right? I thought no, but then I saw he’s the most dropped player on Yahoo, so… okay.
Braden is more of a traditional power bat than Carrigg, and it’s that lack of 5-tool upside that has me holding off in 10-teamers for now, but I do believe in the power. He hit .314 with 10 HR and 5 SB in Triple-A, which may not seem so impressive given the litany of impressive minor league breakouts this year. But that’s good for a 158 wRC+ in the extreme pitcher-friendly International League park of Triple-A Charlotte. A big part of that comes from his high walk rate, which was an impressive 15% in Triple-A with a manageable 24% K%. It’s also worth noting that his Triple-A production came with an excellent 114 mph MaxEV, which is rare thump from a 23-year-old. He had a 53% HardHit% in Triple-A, and so far in the majors, it’s still strong at 47%. So far, his contact rate has been better in the majors than the sub 70% contact% of the minors, but it will probably regress, and the answer to how useful he will be likely comes down to how much it does regress. He should at least hit for big power in any case, but if he can do it while helping in batting average and batting alongside a bunch of young emerging Sawx, well, that would be pretty cool indeed. In OBP leagues, he’s a must-add, even though the walks haven’t come quite yet.
Jac Caglianone (OF, Kansas City Royals)
Jac is back on track. Although he doesn’t have the gargantuan homer binges of some of the other guys on this list, he’s been surging with his batting average, hitting a studly .405 with 4 dingers in 45 AB over the past two weeks, and his expected stats are on the upswing. He’s showing still-excellent quality of contact metrics, and it seems the whole team (the healthy ones, anyway) are all heating up at the same time, which should help him in the run production categories. While it’s probably not super helpful for most, it’s worth noting that with Pasquantino to the IL, Caglianone is now playing 1B, and can acquire that dual-eligibility in many leagues.
Matt Chapman (3B, San Francisco Giants)
Maybe he forgot how to hit, but then he consulted ChapGPT (Great Popping Taters). He’s hit nearly all of his power in the past 3 weeks, with 6 of his 7 homers, with 3 of those coming this week. His season numbers and rates still look awful so this wasn’t just a case of bad luck finally turning around, but with his rolling xwoBA on a steep upwards climb, and the general dearth of talent at the position, it’s worth adding and riding this streak out at the very least.
15-team
Colt Keith (2B/3B, Detroit Tigers)
Yes, I’m writing this after the three-homer game, in which he quadrupled his season homer total. Baseball is weird. You may remember that Keith also had a similar dry run last May before having a very hot summer (and then cooling back down) and I think with Keith’s skills, he may be ready to do just that. With Gleyber nursing another injury, Keith has a little more protection, the offense as a whole is heating up, and while it hasn’t really materialized into anything yet, it’s worth noting that Colt Keith’s bat speed is up this year, from 70.7 (27th percentile) in 2025 to 72.0 (49th percentile). Not only that, but he has surprisingly improved sprint speed at 82nd percentile (up from 66th percentile last year), so he could threaten for double-digit stolen bases. I’d definitely be buying in dynasty formats, but I consider him a summer stream in redrafts, though note that unlike last year, he won’t help you in OBP
Honorable Mention: Joe Mack (C, Miami Marlins) – Right when it seemed that he was on the verge of losing fantasy relevance, Mack has been knifing the ball, hitting .300 with 2 homers in the past 21 days to raise his batting average to a solid .260 with 3 homers. With his defense, that’ll do.
Honorable Mention: Esteury Ruiz (OF, Miami Marlins) Who needs a speed stream when you have an Estuary Ruiz? He’s hit a surprisingly good .389 with 2 HR and 4 SB in just 18 AB over the past two weeks. He’s a bit maddening to know how to use, but he’s up to 4 HR and 12 SBs (2 CS) in 63 AB. That kind of wild upside is worth grabbing.
Deep Leagues
Samad Taylor (OF, San Diego Padres)
With Castellanos being Cast Away, Samad came around to pick up the volleyball. He’s been slashing the ball like Summer of Samad hitting .355 with 1 HR and 3 SB, and while it might not last, he has earned a big enough opportunity that you should stream and see where it goes.
Spencer Jones (OF, New York Yankees)
I know the K rate is bad, okay? But with Grisham down, Jones is being given at least a part-time role to make an impact… and despite striking out in about 40% of his AB, is still hitting ,318 with 2 homers in the past two weeks in the matchups he does play.
Pedro Ramirez (2B/3B, Chicago Cubs)
Unlike Spencer Jones, the opportunity for regular playing time isn’t really there… but he can still make it. He got off the schneid with his first homer while batting .257 in 35 AB spread out over a month or so. But it’s worth noting that he is hitting .333 in 12 ABs this week, and in the majors he’s showing plus bat speed and a truly special 8% K% backed by an equally top-tier whiff rate, so I think he’s a guy you stash and hope the playing time will find a way.
SELL
10-team
Austin Riley (3B, Atlanta Braves)
Please, don’t keep this Austin weird. He’s seemed to wobble between looking lost and then looking like he’s finally locked in, but the end result is a player whose peaks are not strong enough to sustain the valleys, and right now he must be in Death Valley. He’s hitting just .115 with 0 HR (1 SB) and 3 RBI in 52 AB over the past 21 days, bringing his season line down to .202/.286/.346 with 8 HR and 4 SB in 257 AB. Ick.
It hasn’t been just bad luck, as he’s had a rolling xwOBA of just .299 over his past 100 PA, and .276 over his past 50 PA. Could he be playing through an injury? Maybe. The power’s not totally gone as he still has 85th percentile bat speed, but his MaxEV, Barrel% and HardHit% are all substantially down even from last year, and his K% is still in the bad place at 28%. I get that the team is good and the position is weak overall, but in 10-teamers there are simply names that will likely do much better for you. I’m more optimistic about the struggling Maikel Garcia, Casey Schmitt of course, and yes I think I’d even roll with Bo Bichette over him now in formats that use batting average.
Carlos Cortes (OF, Athletics)
Short King Carlos is looking like he may need to abdicate his throne. After an incredible start to the season, he simply hasn’t been able to hit with nearly as much authority when he’s been in the lineup. With Rooker down, he should be playing regularly, but Henry Bolte seems to be clamping down on one spot, and Lawrence Butler, who seemed left for dead a few weeks ago, seems to have a fire lit under him and is hitting hot again. Even when he has gotten to play, the production has been lackluster, with a .156/.224/.244 line and 1 HR with 4 RBI in 45 AB over the past 21 days. His xwOBA has also been in a steady downtrend with a .302 xwOBA over his past 50 PA.
Dishonorable Mention: Brayan Rocchio (2B/SS, Cleveland Guardians) – I told you I didn’t believe it would last! All of the rate stats said he was the same mediocre hitter as last year even with the contact rate improvement, and without getting on base, he’s not stealing.
12-team
Nolan Arenado (3B, Arizona Diamondbacks)
What were we saying again about third base being bad? It looked like maybe he was having a bit of resurgence after his big April and solid May, but now an extended slump is turning him back into a pumpkin, as he’s hit just .150 with a homer and 2 SBs over 60 AB the past 21 days, and hitting just .111 in 27 AB this week, with an uncharacteristic 10 K in that span.
It’s not just bad luck either, as he went from having a strong .398 rolling xwOBA 100 PA ago to a nauseating .252 xwOBA over his past 100 PA, the second biggest drop of all major leaguers. Wait, did you think it couldn’t get much worse? Well it can! In his most recent 50 PA, that rolling xwOBA is down to just .171. I’m not sure you realize how bad that is. The only other players on the list who had something worse than that is Christian Vázquez and Nolan Gorman, who was just demoted. If you still have him, trade him now before the enormity of his stinkage comes around. There may be situations in which he’s also fine as a 12-team drop, but of course depends on alternatives, since there still is the chance he snaps out of it. But he may be just Arenadone.
Paul Goldschmidt (1B, New York Yankees)
Old is gold, but Paul is in slow-motion fall. I’m glad I sneakily snagged him and Joc last month in a dynasty league when I saw that despite roster resource listing Goldy as a small side platoon, that he was playing every day and expected stats expected better. Well he’s now fully hit into those shoes, hitting .358 with 5 HR and 19 RBI over the past 3 weeks and .409 with 2 dingers this week in 22 AB. That brings his total suddenly to an impressive .298 with 10 home runs . Hooray! Sell him now. Wait, what?
Yeah, despite the great surface production, the expected stats have been in steady declline for a month now, and I think I see the reason why. He’s had a .296 xwOBA in his past 100 PA, and it’s likely because since he started earning more playing time, a lot more of those at-bats have come against righties, and he really has been struggling against them this year… which was why he was in the lefty masher platoon in the first place. Most fantasy sources are steps behind and calling him an add now, when the time to add was weeks ago, but those mixed signals should help you in a trade. I know I’m going to try to flip my Goldy share, I’ll let you know what I can get (it’s in dynasty so probably not so much).
Dishonorable Mention: Cam Smith (OF, Hosuton Astros) – I’ll admit I was too stubborn on expecting a bounce-back, and while he has been stealing more bases, it’s pretty laughable that in April people were disagreeing with me when I said Walker is the better asset. Smith still has a bright future, but this year may be not much more than a slight improvement on his lackluster 2025.
15-team
Anthony Volpe (SS, New York Yankees)
I get that there was a moment of excitement when Volpe had a good week a short while after his return and it seemed like maybe he had learned a thing or too in his time off. But with some more time and wisdom, I can see that’s not really the case. Volpe has managed a pitiful .265 xwOBA over his past 50 PA, and his .286 mark over his past 100 PA isn’t very good either. This year, while he has still been stealing bases, he’s been continuing to whiff a lot but his previously decent Hard Contact rates are down across the board. with nearly all of his Statcast sliders below 25th percentile except for Chase%. At this rate, I think instead of aiming for another 19/18 season, he should just hope he hits double digit homers at all.
Tristan Gray (SS, Minnesota Twins)
After picking him up in my home league (AL-only) Gray’s recent numbers make me want to black out. He had been on a heater but is now hitting .231 with no homers in his past 2 weeks and an even worse .143 with no homers in 14 AB over the past week. He does hit the ball hard, and Kaelen Culpepper’s recent injury does buy him more time, but with a line of .244 with 4 HR and 2 SB in 127 AB, I don’t think this is a guy worth holding.
Deep Leagues
Brandon Valenzuela (C, Toronto Blue Jays)
There was some thinking that with his surprisingly solid production while Kirk was out with an injury, that they’d find a way to keep the relatively young (25) Valenzuela in the lineup. Problem is, catchers are not the most versatile, and Kirk has hit the ground running enough that he’ll still be in line for the lions share of ABs. maybe that’s why Valenzuela only has 7 AB over the past week. No thanks, not in this catcher market.
Daniel Schneemann (2B/SS/3B/OF, Cleveland Guardians)
He plays nearly every position around the diamond… so no matter where you play him, he can tank your batting average! I kind of wish I were joking as I was bullish on him in April. But while he still has opportunities for playing time, especially with J0Ram down, his batting average has really fallen off a cliff or at least a ravine, going from hitting above .300 to just .228 with 5 HR and 4 SB, and he’s been hitting just .189 over the past 3 weeks. There are other players with similar or near-similar eligibility where they can avoid actively hurting you.
