Let’s start with an update on the Phillies’ closer situation. Jordan Romano has looked the best (he was much better yesterday after his opening-day meltdown) but I think he’s who I’m most worried about now. Similarly to the Red Sox, the Phillies’ highest leverage reliever is their best left-handed reliever, so I would not be surprised to see José Alvarado end up with 60-70% of the save chances here. Romano worked the eighth on Opening Day, getting the No. 8, 9, and 1 hitters for the Nationals. Alvarado came in to face the middle of the order in the ninth. Yesterday, the innings flipped, but the lineup pockets were very similar with Alvarado getting the middle of the order and Romano getting the bottom of the Rockies lineup. It’s definitely worth monitoring at least, and with how dominant Alvarado has looked, he should be rostered in all formats for now.
Notes
- It’s been a rough start for the Twins to say the least, but even still, it was still odd to see Jhoan Duran working the eighth inning down three runs in the team’s second game of the season. Perhaps Rocco Baldelli hasn’t learned yet that Duran really struggles in non-save situations? I know Duran needs to get work, but that’s a weird spot for Duran in just the second game of the season. Until Baldelli is no longer manager, expect Duran’s usage to remain ambiguous.
- Robert Suarez has gotten off to a nice start after he went missing for much of the spring. Not only that, but we are seeing positive developments in his pitch usage, as he’s thrown his changeup 40% of the time (up 27%) in his first two outings. That’s right about where he should be, as the fastball is still the better offering, but the changeups are needed to keep hitters off balance this year.
- Aroldis Chapman does not have a save yet, but his usage so far is promising, I suppose. Justin Slaten earned the save on Opening Day working the ninth, but that’s because Chapman was used in that high-leverage spot, facing the Rangers’ best hitters starting with lefty Corey Seager. So while Chapman won’t see every save chance, I still see him in line for 70% or so, as long as there aren’t any middle-of-the-order lefties due up in the eighth.
- Tier 4 is pure turmoil at the moment. Yes, things have not been great for David Bednar to start the season, but to be fair it’s still a super small sample size. Additionally, Colin Holderman has arguably been worse and I’m not sure the team trusts Dennis Santana enough to give him the closer role. Bednar is certainly operating with a short lease moving forward, but I don’t think we should consider dropping him just yet. EDIT: Bednar was demoted to AAA this afternoon. I’ve adjusted the rankings accordingly.
- Ryan Pressly has been just as problematic for the Cubs, yet he does not have any blown saves or losses despite allowing four walks and six hits over his first three innings. I’m worried the stuff just isn’t going to cut it anymore, as the fastball velocity is still down and he doesn’t get hitters to chase like he used to. And unlike Bednar, Pressly actually has a closer in waiting on the roster in Porter Hodge, who has not allowed a run so far and has five strikeouts over three IP.
- Seth Halvorsen received the Rockies’ first save chance of the season, and it’s fair to say based on Tyler Kinley and Victor Vodnik’s usage and performance, Halvorsen is the clear-cut closer in Colorado right now. It’s probably the right move as Halvorsen has the best chance to succeed in Coors, but there will also be some growing pains for the rookie reliever pitching half of his games there, so temper expectations.
- Luke Jackson is going to be the Rangers closer until he pitches his way out of the job, which honestly could happen at any time. This isn’t like Kirby Yates situation, as Jackson holds a 4.29 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, and 24% K rate over 341 career games (5.09 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 25% K rate in 2024) and his stuff has not gotten any better in recent years. His lack of fastball and struggles against left-handed hitters are going to make him frustrating to roster, but if you feel you need to take a chance on saves right now, Jackson is technically a closer at the moment.
- It looks like Terry Francona’s comments from last week about Tony Santillan were strictly about Santillan being the team’s “fireman” high-leverage option. That opened to door to Emilio Pagán becoming the team’s interim closer (after Ian Gibaut’s season debut). Pagan has a solid fastball but he’s never quite figured out a secondary offering to pair with it, as his cutter and splitter are both alright. Pagan is fine to roster for the time being, but the Reds do seem committed to at least giving Alexis Díaz a chance to get his job back once he returns from the IL.
- We are still waiting for some answers with Detroit (it’s not Brant Hurter), but it isn’t looking too hot for Beau Brieske who allowed four earned runs while getting just one out in his last outing. I still see this situation becoming a full-blown committee but perhaps someone will eventually emerge.
| Rank | Pitcher | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emmanuel ClaseT1 | - |
| 2 | Edwin Díaz | - |
| 3 | Josh Hader | - |
| 4 | Devin Williams | - |
| 5 | Mason Miller | - |
| 6 | Félix Bautista | - |
| 7 | Andrés Muñoz | - |
| 8 | Ryan HelsleyT2 | +2 |
| 9 | Raisel Iglesias | - |
| 10 | Jhoan Duran | -2 |
| 11 | Jeff Hoffman | +1 |
| 12 | Ryan Walker | -1 |
| 13 | Tanner Scott | - |
| 14 | Trevor MegillT3 | - |
| 15 | A.J. Puk | - |
| 16 | Pete Fairbanks | - |
| 17 | Kenley Jansen | +2 |
| 18 | Robert Suarez | +4 |
| 19 | Aroldis ChapmanT4 | +2 |
| 20 | Ryan Pressly | - |
| 21 | Jordan Romano | -4 |
| 22 | Kyle FinneganT5 | +1 |
| 23 | Carlos Estévez | +1 |
| 24 | Seth Halvorsen | +UR |
| 25 | Mike Clevinger | +1 |
| 26 | Dennis SantanaT6 | +UR |
| 27 | Anthony Bender | +UR |
| 28 | Luke Jackson | - |
| 29 | Emilio Pagán | +UR |
| 30 | Beau Brieske | -3 |
Watch List
NEXT 5: Griffin Jax, Cade Smith, Jeremiah Estrada, Mason Montgomery, Camilo Doval
weird… Kenley rising up the ranks already. The industry can skip the part where he is supposedly cooked and battling with some scrub for saves. He is the second best closer of all-time in my book. If he played for the Yankees he would probably have a holiday named after him. At some point he will have nothing left but that seems to be where he starts off every season and then he surprises all of the experts lol.
I mean Jansen was the 23rd ranked RP last year in standard H2H. He ranked 15th amongst relievers who are/were closers. I don’t think it makes sense to put him inside the top 15 yet with the talent in front of him, but yea I’d agree he’s become underrated at this point.
My two cents here is that if Puck and Martinez are interchangeable, then one shouldn’t be ranked 15 and one ranked worse 30th. Instead, if Puck only has a 50% chance of getting this closing job then move him into the 20s below the people that actually have a job. Otherwise, this really isn’t a ranking from The best closer to the 30th best closer. For example, if someone offered you Jansen for your Puck one for one, you would take it right? Then don’t rank Puck over Jansen. Or are you saying you would rank Puvk over Jansen in which case why would Martinez be 15 spots below Jansen? Overall, I am a big pitcherlist fan, but this idea thatonly one closer per team can be on your chart I think messes up the whole idea of ranking closers. If Park and Martinez are basically 50-50 right now then have them both ranked in the mid 20s.
I know we talked about this on Reddit, but you bring up a good point and starting next week I’ll expand the list to 40 relievers.
J Romano below Bednar is CRAZY. Rick, get in season form. You’re way off here.
I did have Romano ahead of Bednar heading into the season at least and I also thought the Pirates were going to give Bednar more than 34 pitches before pulling the plug lol. As for Romano, he probably won’t be on the list next week anyway so it’s kind of a moot point (Alvarado’s usage has been more closer-ish than Romano’s).