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DFS Plays of the Day – 7/29/23

Optimal DFS plays on DK/FD for Sat Jul 29

Slate Details

It’s a rare shared & large main slate for both sites (13 games), starting at 7:05 PM EDT.

Weather Impact 

Slight rain delays for PHI@PIT & MIN@KC; late start for WAS@NYM, and CHC@STL is a late start and potential PPD risk.

No surprise, OAK visiting Coors is tops for HR/XBH/Runs – hot and variable winds.

CIN@LAD – Hot and winds out to right-center.

NYY@BAL – Warm with winds out to left-center.

PHI@PIT – Warm with winds out to right (more favorable for XBH & runs than HR).

CLE@CWS / WAS@NYM – Variable winds, but favorable conditions for HRs.

MIL@ATL – Hot with light winds out to center.

SEA@ARI – Chase Field is usually good for its share of XBH.

Pitching

PLV Pitching Jul 29 23

OAK@COL

Assuming most people will be paying up for pitching on this slate, stacking cheapies from OAK & COL will be the next step for a balanced lineup. Chris Flexen is getting a rare start opportunity for COL after being picked up from the Mets, but it’s not certain he sees a full starter workload. For the As, it’s Paul Blackburn, who is susceptible to giving up walks, but slightly less prone to FB contact which gives him a slight edge.

Base plays: JJ Bleday & Zack Gelof (OAK); Austin Wynns, Michael Toglia & Nolan Jones (COL)

Stack/GPP plays: Seth Brown & Jace Peterson (OAK); Ryan McMahon (COL)

CIN@LAD

Emmet Sheehan has been struggling at the major league level, walking three or more batters in his last three starts, along with three or more ERs. Last time Luke Weaver saw the Dodgers in early June, he was blown up for seven ERs. This game has shootout potential with the big names for CIN looking back on track after winning 6-5 last night. If you choose to go with one of the cheaper pitcher pivots, this is the game to stack.

Base plays: Joey VottoTJ Friedl & Spencer Steer (CIN); Max MuncyJason Heyward & Freddie Freeman (LAD)

Stack/GPP plays: Elly De La Cruz & Jake Fraley (CIN); J.D. Martinez & James Outman (LAD)

MIL@ATL

Not that you need reasons to like ATL bats, but Julio Teheran has the worst PLV and allows a lot of FB contact to Ls.

Base plays: Ozzie AlbiesMichael Harris II & Travis d’Arnaud (ATL)

Stack/GPP plays: Matt Olson & Eddie Rosario (ATL)

PHI@PIT

Quinn Priester is still getting a long look from PIT, but he’s still prone to blowups and he’s giving up a troubling number of walks and HRs per start.

Base plays: Bryson Stott & Kyle Schwarber (PHI)

CLE@CWS

Mike Clevinger is expected to come off the IL, and he’s primarily a FB pitcher in a park with a decent amount of carry. The wind is mostly across the field to right but there are a couple of CLE bats that have been hot lately.

Base plays: Andrés Giménez, Josh Naylor & Bo Naylor (CLE)

WAS@NYM

Patrick CorbinCarlos Carrasco both give up plenty of hard contact and allowed three or more ERs in their recent starts. The rain looks like it should be done by first pitch so bats should be safe. Pete Alonso has five HRs vs Corbin lifetime.

Base plays: Pete AlonsoFrancisco Alvarez (NYM); Keibert Ruiz & CJ Abrams (WAS)

Stack/GPP plays: Jeimer CandelarioLuis Garcia (WAS)

MIN@KC

The Twins are currently riding a three-game losing streak despite scoring five or more runs in each of those games. Jordan Lyles and his 1-12 record this year could help, along with his hard contact allowed to Ls. Matt Wallner in particular is stupid cheap on DK.

Base plays: Matt WallnerEdouard Julien (MIN)

Stack/GPP plays: Alex Kirilloff & Joey Gallo (MIN)

TEX@SD

This is more a statement about Martín Pérez’s recent starts than a ringing endorsement for the Padres. Pérez has given up five HRs and three ERs or more in his last three starts, along with a number of walks. It’s hard to trust the Padres but they do have some cheap options in the lineup and are at home, while the Rangers have lost five of the last seven (everybody misses Seager).

Base plays: Gary Sánchez & Luis Campusano (SD)

Stack/GPP plays: Manny Machado (SD)

One-offs

Triston Casas is absolutely mashing right now. (All formats)

With the wind blowing out and Tyler Wells struggling a bit with FB contact to Rs, this is a spot for Aaron Judge to do his thing. (GPP)

Dominic Canzone has back-to-back two-hit games and he hits four-seamers well (which is mainly what Bryan Woo throws) – he’s a great value play. (All formats)

Cal Raleigh has a five-game, eight-hit streak going and crushes fastballs (sorry Brandon Pfaadt). (All formats)

Batter Pricing Jul 29 23

 

Justin Wainwright

Originally from the Midwest, but moved to Colorado almost 10 years ago for the sun & Red Rocks. My lifelong aspiration is to either build the perfect analytical simulation tool for MLB players & games or be the head writer for a hit TV show that changes the medium for the next generation. Unofficial president of the Bartolo Colon & Danny Trejo Fan Clubs

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